Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1120

#151 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/20/2013 12:18:53 AM | message detail
Draven may defeat Link next round...

But does he have what it takes to face against YEAR OF LUIGI 2013?!
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#152 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/20/2013 12:19:22 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I think by the time Draven/Link actually rolls around we'll have Draven fatigue. Unless Link can actually put up a fight it'll mostly just be a morbid fascination with seeing our erstwhile god of the contests get massacred by a character who he could break 90% on in normal conditions.


That's the same **** we said about L-Block bubba


No it's not, you have no idea what you're talking about. Link isn't capable of breaking 90% on even the weakest incarnation of L-Block. Heck, Draven may not be capable of that.


oh nvm I misread your comment, I thought you meant Link had a shot haha
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#153 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:19:45 AM | message detail
Heck peak L-Block, with its furious push from all over the internet, could only manage to almost break 53% on Link by the poll's end. If Link can keep himself over 40% I'll consider it a minor miracle.

...why am I responding to Masa
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#154 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/20/2013 12:19:58 AM | message detail
Link... erstwhile god? I will always pray at the church of Link.
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#155 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:20:21 AM | message detail
Draven's percentage of each update since this all started has been around 70%, so he's gonna keep rising until he hits that, and then it'll be more up and down.

By the way, based on 70% on a consistent MMX at 17% (about what he's been getting in the updates), he gets the following 1v1 percentages on the following characters, based on Leon's adjusted 2010 stats.

vs Link: 70.14%
vs Cloud: 72.25%
vs Mario: 73.05%
vs Snake: 73.41%
vs Samus: 73.81%
vs Sephiroth: 74.99%
vs Mega Man: 76.08%
vs Crono: 76.56%
vs Charizard: 76.89%
vs Sonic: 77.58%

And then there's this

vs 2007 L-Block: 61.28%

And these

vs Spring Breeze Dancin': 97.14%
vs Tanner: 97.75%
vs Chester: 98.69%
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#156 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 12:20:28 AM | message detail
The sad thing about this is that Shepard's gonna get like 5% max next round.

Also I kinda wish the Draven ralliers would stop just to see how the rest of the match plays out and see how many votes MMX and Ryu can cut off of him, just for the heck of it.
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#157 | Hydreigoon | Posted 8/20/2013 12:20:37 AM | message detail
I want Draven to win this, because he's a fun little thing to see win a contest like this. As a LoL player, he's pretty dang popular, he even got his own mod made for the game, look up "League of Draven mod", and you'll know what I mean.
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#158 | wakeuptogashi | Posted 8/20/2013 12:21:14 AM | message detail
Pretty sure WOW's peak total accounts were 12 Million (I am gonna assume most of these are active accounts). LOL claims 70M+ accounts created but only about 11.5 monthly players. I'm not sure if 5X WoW's peak in popularity is accurate.
#159 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:21:16 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Link... erstwhile god? I will always pray at the church of Link.


your dead god answers no prayers
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#160 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:21:36 AM | message detail
Oh hey, Mega Man X is still easily winning Indonesia.

Might as well make this the Indonesia Stats and Discussion topic. It's the only place with a reasonable amount of votes whose winner is in question.

Instead of Chester Stats, we will be using Banjo Stats. Unless we find a character weaker than Indonesian Banjo there, but that would make me very sad.
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#161 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:21:36 AM | message detail

vs Chester: 98.69%


Glorious
#162 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/20/2013 12:22:22 AM | message detail
wakeuptogashi posted...
Pretty sure WOW's peak total accounts were 12 Million (I am gonna assume most of these are active accounts). LOL claims 70M+ accounts created but only about 11.5 monthly players. I'm not sure if 5X WoW's peak in popularity is accurate.


That is not what LoL claims. LoL claims 12 million players a day and 32 million unique players monthly.
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#163 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:23:22 AM | message detail
Just how many Chesters is a Draven?
#164 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:23:41 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The sad thing about this is that Shepard's gonna get like 5% max next round.

Sad thing? That's the kind of morbid thing that I'm most interested in seeing now. >_>
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#165 | Xuxon | Posted 8/20/2013 12:25:17 AM | message detail
will Kain have a worse x-stat value than Chester?
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#166 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 12:25:52 AM | message detail
If it were some run of the mill guy I didn't care about, then sure, why not.

But Shep's one of my favorites in this contest, and yes, that actually still matters to me in this contest! I'll be proudly voting for Shepard next round like I proudly voted for FFX in the 2009 Games Contest final!
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#167 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:26:03 AM | message detail
Also his x-stat based on that is 83.72.

If someone gives me the formula for Chesters again, I'll calculate that. I can't remember how that works since I decided to adopt Time To Chester instead.
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#168 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:26:11 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Oh hey, Mega Man X is still easily winning Indonesia.

Might as well make this the Indonesia Stats and Discussion topic. It's the only place with a reasonable amount of votes whose winner is in question.

Instead of Chester Stats, we will be using Banjo Stats. Unless we find a character weaker than Indonesian Banjo there, but that would make me very sad.


Chester got a higher percentage in Indonesia than Banjo in both of his matches

Indonesian Banjo is more perplexing to me than this result
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#169 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:26:59 AM | message detail
I'd vote for Link next round if I thought there was a chance he could stop Draven. As it stands though it seems like stuffed votes exceed legitimate votes though so Link can't win. I'll be reppin Shep.
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#170 | Silverflash-x | Posted 8/20/2013 12:27:55 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
You're grossly underestimating how popular WoW actually was, dude. Honestly I'm pretty sure peak WoW craps on peak League as far as playership goes and it was pay to play so there's probably more passion among the playerbase there given they're paying money to play.


You're just wrong here, though. Google it. And stop with the 400 stuffed votes per 5 stuff. To claim stuffing, let alone put a number on it, is impossible the the reason I stated above: we have nothing to compare such a massive fanbase to. Not saying that there's no stuffing, but we simply don't know, and trying to put a number on it is ridiculously silly.
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#171 | wakeuptogashi | Posted 8/20/2013 12:28:14 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
wakeuptogashi posted...
Pretty sure WOW's peak total accounts were 12 Million (I am gonna assume most of these are active accounts). LOL claims 70M+ accounts created but only about 11.5 monthly players. I'm not sure if 5X WoW's peak in popularity is accurate.


That is not what LoL claims. LoL claims 12 million players a day and 32 million unique players monthly.


Shoot, my numbers were from Nov 2011. And your numbers are from October of 2012 if I'm reading this right... that's a scary growth:

http://www.riotgames.com/articles/20121015/138/league-legends-growth-spells-bad-news-teemo
#172 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:28:22 AM | message detail
I like Shepard too (but not nearly enough to abandon Link for) but this could be a pretty surreal thing to watch! That's something at least!
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#173 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/20/2013 12:29:17 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Heck peak L-Block, with its furious push from all over the internet, could only manage to almost break 53% on Link by the poll's end. If Link can keep himself over 40% I'll consider it a minor miracle.

...why am I responding to Masa


lol no need to be a jerk over a misread comment bro

honestly though, I wouldn't mind seeing one of the Pokemon entrants beat Draven, if there's anyone who could get a counter rally on a site like GameFAQs, it'd be a Pokemon entry like Missingno
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#174 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/20/2013 12:29:43 AM | message detail
wakeuptogashi posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
wakeuptogashi posted...
Pretty sure WOW's peak total accounts were 12 Million (I am gonna assume most of these are active accounts). LOL claims 70M+ accounts created but only about 11.5 monthly players. I'm not sure if 5X WoW's peak in popularity is accurate.


That is not what LoL claims. LoL claims 12 million players a day and 32 million unique players monthly.


Shoot, my numbers were from Nov 2011. And your numbers are from October of 2012 if I'm reading this right... that's a scary growth:

http://www.riotgames.com/articles/20121015/138/league-legends-growth-spells-bad-news-teemo


Yeah, so it's very likely higher than the Oct 2012 number now considering how the game has grown.
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#175 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:30:00 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I'd vote for Link next round if I thought there was a chance he could stop Draven. As it stands though it seems like stuffed votes exceed legitimate votes though so Link can't win. I'll be reppin Shep.


Don't, L. The votes count. Support Link. Throw me an upvote when I put his topic up on Reddit. It's one match to prove that Board 8 can swing a contest. No better time to go the extra mile!
#176 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:31:00 AM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Heck peak L-Block, with its furious push from all over the internet, could only manage to almost break 53% on Link by the poll's end. If Link can keep himself over 40% I'll consider it a minor miracle.

...why am I responding to Masa


lol no need to be a jerk over a misread comment bro

honestly though, I wouldn't mind seeing one of the Pokemon entrants beat Draven, if there's anyone who could get a counter rally on a site like GameFAQs, it'd be a Pokemon entry like Charizard/Blue


Fix'd.
#177 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:31:13 AM | message detail
I mean Indonesian Banjo is practically a statistical impossibility, you'd think enough people would vote for him RANDOMLY with that kind of a sample size

how does it happen
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#178 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 12:31:17 AM | message detail
I have no desire to watch Spira die.

*fades away into pyreflies*
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#179 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:31:51 AM | message detail
but we simply don't know, and trying to put a number on it is ridiculously silly.

It's not as if I'm just pulling numbers out of my ass, though. There's a lot of data to use here. I'm not even going in depth and it's pretty obvious to see just at a glance. If you really went gung ho you could be more precise, probably. You have a decent idea of how this site is going to vote, you see what percentage of extra votes are going where at various points in the match. There's more than enough data here that you don't actually need to wring your hands and shout "I JUST DON'T KNOW" to the heavens.
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#180 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:32:53 AM | message detail
Some users just want to watch the site burn
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#181 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:36:04 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Some users just want to watch the site burn


Not to die but to be reborn,
Away from a contest so battered and torn...
Forever.

Don't forget the second half!
#182 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:38:12 AM | message detail
This still has to do with a lot more than the playerbase of LoL. The game isn't thousands of times more popular than WoW was at its peak, but that's exactly what you'd infer looking at this match. There's something more salient in the difference between Arthas losing to KOS-MOS and Draven doubling MMX and Ryu combined.
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#183 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/20/2013 12:39:44 AM | message detail
Does anyone have any direct links to reddit that show this Draven rally in action?

I'd just like to know where all of this is spawning from.
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#184 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:41:58 AM | message detail
#185 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/20/2013 12:43:13 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1kpnus/we_have_to_vote_for_draven_voting_will_begin_10/

906 upvotes

357 comments


And it's the top post, besides a sticky, meaning it's the first thing anyone that goes to that subreddit will see.
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#186 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:43:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
This still has to do with a lot more than the playerbase of LoL. The game isn't thousands of times more popular than WoW was at its peak, but that's exactly what you'd infer looking at this match. There's something more salient in the difference between Arthas losing to KOS-MOS and Draven doubling MMX and Ryu combined.


To be fair, WoW is more of a... Constant experience. There is no match "end" or anything. You're always doing stuff at your own pace, so you're going to be less likely to take breaks/such. And beyond that, LoL definitely has a more involved fanbase outside of the game than WoW does.

I'm not saying it explains it fully, but there is a definite difference in the two fanbases.
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#187 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:44:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
-wake up-
-look at the poll-
-rubs eyes-

Oh I guess I'm still asleep and I'm dreaming or something. Weird. I could have sworn Draven is getting 85% on Ryu. Hahaha!
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#188 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:44:35 AM | message detail
Also the people in that thread are making fun of Black Turtle, which may be the only common ground Board 8 has with LoL fans.
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#189 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:44:36 AM | message detail
The difference is that LoL is like a super fighting game. Warcraft is an RPG+RTS, hugely emphasizing the RTS part.
#190 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:45:04 AM | message detail
#191 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:47:26 AM | message detail
LoL is not like a fighting game. Yuck. Two entirely different genres. No one from either genre has ever had any success in the other, and I doubt more than one or two people ever will.
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#192 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:48:39 AM | message detail
In other news, Draven is really close now to quintupling Ryu.

Even using our theoretical stats that compare characters to games and games to series, with the Legend of Zelda series being the strongest of them all, Draven is going to do something like triple Legend of Zelda and Final Fantasy by the end of this.
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#193 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:49:34 AM | message detail
Megaman X is not doing a very good job of putting an end to this madness
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#194 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:49:42 AM | message detail
You know that Yoblazer Solid Snake parody speech about how contests have changed? Prescient.
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#195 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:51:17 AM | message detail
Well he's getting under 400 votes per update now

that's something I guess

also we're going to beat the votals of his last match four hours in
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#196 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:52:04 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
You know that Yoblazer Solid Snake parody speech about how contests have changed? Prescient.


looks like we can chalk up another victory for Solid Snake, everyone

good match
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#197 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:52:30 AM | message detail
At least we get to see Snake vs Mario in the final, Draven winning is a foregone conclusion.
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#198 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:55:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
Current Match (4 Hours): 38745 Votes

Previous Match (12 Hours): 36597 Votes.

So...

What's gonna happen first?

Quadrupling X?

or

Quintupling Ryu?
#199 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 12:54:17 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Some users just want to watch the site burn


That's fine. I'll be old man Mika and you can be Seymour!
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#200 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:54:18 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
LoL is not like a fighting game. Yuck. Two entirely different genres. No one from either genre has ever had any success in the other, and I doubt more than one or two people ever will.


Define success, because ClakeyD could qualify for this, for example.