Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1120

#101 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:57:35 PM | message detail
Yeah I really doubt Bacon does anything to counteract the stuffing here-- as I said I'm only discussing this because trying to determine the stuffed number of votes is useful to determine whether Draven can be stopped. Assuming the 4-500 per 5 estimate is correct he cannot unless global vote totals increase. If I'm overshooting a bit, it's back on the table, though.

Assuming my estimate is correct Draven would be leading by ~600 anyway so it's almost doubly not worth discussing at the moment.
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#102 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/19/2013 11:57:42 PM | message detail
-Tofa7- posted...
How the contest will actually end:

- Draven wins this match (obviously)

- Despite the site coming together to stop the Draven rally, Draven destroys Link, and all hopes of anyone else winning the contest die with link.

- Zelda fans, mourning the loss of Link so early in the contest, make Epona their Link proxy. Epona suddenly beats Snake in Round 3.

- Epona, with the combination of a being a Link proxy and a joke character, storms past Cloud to reach the finals where she faces Draven and Mario.

- Epona, who now has stronger joke votes than L-Block ever did at his peak is also boosted by Mario sacrificing his votes to the horse. Even with all this, it's still not enough to beat Draven in a close match that comes down to the final few hours.

- In the last hour, Epona gets a rally from My Little Pony fans, overtaking Draven to win the contest.

It takes a Zelda joke character with Link revenge/proxy votes, a Mario sacrafice and a brony rally to defeat League of Legends, and it will be amazing.

SHAPED LIKE A HORSE TO TRAMPLE YOUR ASS

EPONA 2013, BELEIVE!


You get a carrot, sir.
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#103 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:58:03 PM | message detail
Another thing to think about-comparing Draven % of the votes per update between this match and the previous
Of course this rally started eariler,but I don't think it should change so much
Draven is owning X and Ryu harder than he did to Jak and Chie,despite being stronger characters
If we can see how much "rallied votes" Jak and Chie got the previous match compared to X and Ryu "rallied votes" it can help quite a bit
LoL fans are not supposed to know this is the second round and it's much more important so I really find it weird he gets so much more support than before
#104 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:58:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Silverflash-x posted...
I'm not saying that there isn't any stuffing; my point is that it's impossible to know. The simple fact is that this contest has simply never seen a game as popular globally as League of Legends, or even anything in the same category.


We've, uh, had Warcraft. That's at least somewhat comparable.


No, KH. They're not at all comparable, and for a very specific reason. Do you know anything about how Blizzard staff treats the people on its forums? The answer is 'like garbage'. Riot Games couldn't possibly be further than that if they tried - just by being relentlessly positive and constantly present on the forums, they have made the playerbase feel like they are always being heard, pampered and coddled. They have hundreds of employees, and all of them post there, mingling with the fanbase, making it feel like they're your friends and fellow LoL fans. That, I feel, is the root of why this is working. WoW was well-played. LoL is well-loved.
#105 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 11:58:30 PM | message detail
so um what if Epona loses to Ike or GlaDOS before that chain of events can be catalyzed
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#106 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:59:35 PM | message detail
-Tofa7- posted...
How the contest will actually end:

- Draven wins this match (obviously)

- Despite the site coming together to stop the Draven rally, Draven destroys Link, and all hopes of anyone else winning the contest die with link.

- Zelda fans, mourning the loss of Link so early in the contest, make Epona their Link proxy. Epona suddenly beats Snake in Round 3.

- Epona, with the combination of a being a Link proxy and a joke character, storms past Cloud to reach the finals where she faces Draven and Mario.

- Epona, who now has stronger joke votes than L-Block ever did at his peak is also boosted by Mario sacrificing his votes to the horse. Even with all this, it's still not enough to beat Draven in a close match that comes down to the final few hours.

- In the last hour, Epona gets a rally from My Little Pony fans, overtaking Draven to win the contest.

It takes a Zelda joke character with Link revenge/proxy votes, a Mario sacrafice and a brony rally to defeat League of Legends, and it will be amazing.

SHAPED LIKE A HORSE TO TRAMPLE YOUR ASS

EPONA 2013, BELEIVE!


post of the thread
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Character Battle IX Bracket: 76/87
#107 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/20/2013 12:00:04 AM | message detail
Jak and Chie > X and Ryu

LOL
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#108 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:00:57 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Silverflash-x posted...
I'm not saying that there isn't any stuffing; my point is that it's impossible to know. The simple fact is that this contest has simply never seen a game as popular globally as League of Legends, or even anything in the same category.


We've, uh, had Warcraft. That's at least somewhat comparable.


No, KH. They're not at all comparable, and for a very specific reason. Do you know anything about how Blizzard staff treats the people on its forums? The answer is 'like garbage'. Riot Games couldn't possibly be further than that if they tried - just by being relentlessly positive and constantly present on the forums, they have made the playerbase feel like they are always being heard, pampered and coddled. They have hundreds of employees, and all of them post there, mingling with the fanbase, making it feel like they're your friends and fellow LoL fans. That, I feel, is the root of why this is working. WoW was well-played. LoL is well-loved.


This is getting into the realms of ridiculousness, even by this match's standards. Once again, I was only addressing a single point - popularity of a game. We've had WoW entities in these contests and they've never made anything but the slightest waves. Whatever further analyses you want to infer is up to you, but LoL is not a singularly unique entity in terms of playership.

Heck, on that front, Red Bird was in a match a few days ago.
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#109 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2013 12:01:02 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
so um what if Epona loses to Ike or GlaDOS before that chain of events can be catalyzed


Link-fans prepare early for this necessary back-up plan. Wisdom is part of the Triforce, after all.
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#110 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:01:06 AM | message detail
My Little Epona: Revenge is Magic
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#111 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:01:09 AM | message detail
-Tofa7- posted...
How the contest will actually end:

- Draven wins this match (obviously)

- Despite the site coming together to stop the Draven rally, Draven destroys Link, and all hopes of anyone else winning the contest die with link.

- Zelda fans, mourning the loss of Link so early in the contest, make Epona their Link proxy. Epona suddenly beats Snake in Round 3.

- Epona, with the combination of a being a Link proxy and a joke character, storms past Cloud to reach the finals where she faces Draven and Mario.

- Epona, who now has stronger joke votes than L-Block ever did at his peak is also boosted by Mario sacrificing his votes to the horse. Even with all this, it's still not enough to beat Draven in a close match that comes down to the final few hours.

- In the last hour, Epona gets a rally from My Little Pony fans, overtaking Draven to win the contest.

It takes a Zelda joke character with Link revenge/proxy votes, a Mario sacrafice and a brony rally to defeat League of Legends, and it will be amazing.

SHAPED LIKE A HORSE TO TRAMPLE YOUR ASS

EPONA 2013, BELEIVE!


Bravo
Now create a topic so everyone can see this
It has to happen!
#112 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:02:08 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
...So, wait.

You say that the rally shot the totals on Soap/Big Daddy up

But then when presented with other matches that had votes higher than it that you say are just... Legit character strength (Leon/Vault Boy, Charizard/Duke Nukem, etc.)... You still insist rallies have THAT much of a lasting impact?

The "rally increase" of Soap/Big Daddy lost to the LEGIT result of Charizard/Duke Nukem and Leon/Vault Boy, meaning the "Rally increase" isn't nearly as big as you're trying to say it is.


Now you're backpedaling. Yes, Soap/Big Daddy wasn't as high as some other night matches - this is primarily because it should have been at the bottom of the barrel, and potentially a contender for lowest votal match of the round. The fact that it ends up in the upper implies elevated runoff totals.

Draven's match provided no such inference for the match succeeding his last time. There should be *some* residual effect; there always is. Your making a distinction between a failed and successful rally is the fabrication - it doesn't pass the eye test.


How am I backpedaling? You said rallies have a huge impact on following matches. That's not always true. The impact on Soap/Big Daddy wasn't nearly as big as Big Daddy/Tifa. And the fact that it still lost to matches that weren't effected by rallying whatsoever means we don't know how much it actually increased from rally residue.

It's also worth mentioning that there's less likely to be carry over from night matches into day matches than there are day matches into night matches.


Another tiresome backpedal. Your entire statement at issue, whether you want to weasel out of it or not, is that there would not be elevated vote totals in the match following a rallied match. There routinely is, which you can see in virtually any match we've ever had going all the way back to Mario/Cloud.

The extent of the elevated totals is up for debate, but if you think Soap/Big Daddy would have naturally been one of the highest votal night matches of the first round otherwise it's not worth wasting further arguments on.



...I never said there wouldn't be elevated totals. I said not having elevated totals is not a sign of stuffing, because... As evidenced, most people rallied don't stick around for matches after. If a night match following a day rally only shows SMALL vote increase, then a day match following a night rally is going to show next to nothing.
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#113 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:02:33 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Silverflash-x posted...
I'm not saying that there isn't any stuffing; my point is that it's impossible to know. The simple fact is that this contest has simply never seen a game as popular globally as League of Legends, or even anything in the same category.


We've, uh, had Warcraft. That's at least somewhat comparable.


No, KH. They're not at all comparable, and for a very specific reason. Do you know anything about how Blizzard staff treats the people on its forums? The answer is 'like garbage'. Riot Games couldn't possibly be further than that if they tried - just by being relentlessly positive and constantly present on the forums, they have made the playerbase feel like they are always being heard, pampered and coddled. They have hundreds of employees, and all of them post there, mingling with the fanbase, making it feel like they're your friends and fellow LoL fans. That, I feel, is the root of why this is working. WoW was well-played. LoL is well-loved.


This is getting into the realms of ridiculousness, even by this match's standards. Once again, I was only addressing a single point - popularity of a game. We've had WoW entities in these contests and they've never made anything but the slightest waves. Whatever further analyses you want to infer is up to you, but LoL is not a singularly unique entity in terms of playership.

Heck, on that front, Red Bird was in a match a few days ago.


No, I get that. But consider it like this: Do you think Farmville gets anything out of a rally? It's not about who's most played when it comes to a favorites poll. It's about who's most liked. And LoL is indubitably not just played, but liked. A lot.
#114 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:03:47 AM | message detail
Draven among LoL fans vs Thrall among WoW fans I think more WoW fans like Thrall personally.
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#115 | anondum | Posted 8/20/2013 12:04:02 AM | message detail
the finals being draven vs a horse would be something alright

who would the third person be.. charizard

yeah best finals
#116 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:04:33 AM | message detail
IngmarBirdman posted...
Okay so here's one way to look at it:

By the end of the round, Draven will have more votes than all the contestants receive in any given match, meaning for GameFAQs voters - i.e. people who actually follow the site / contest - the vote you cast in your own site's poll no longer matters.

Who knows, Bacon might have to put his foot down.

Why would Bacon care about this? He'll just see the numbers and go "wow man, look at those numbers!"
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#117 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:05:10 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Draven among LoL fans vs Thrall among WoW fans I think more WoW fans like Thrall personally.


Probably, but on the other hand, who gives that much of a **** about WoW compared to LoL?
#118 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 12:05:59 AM | message detail
Link/Cloud/L-Block/Snake at 3:02 AM - 35761
Draven/Ryu/MMX at 3:00 AM - 32165
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#119 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:06:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
He's still increasing.

3 Hours in.

AND HE'S STILL INCREASING.

HOW?!
#120 | Acerac | Posted 8/20/2013 12:06:23 AM | message detail
*Checks the results*

...WOW?
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#121 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:06:59 AM | message detail
In less than one hour this match will have the highest votals of this contest so far and we will still have 8 more hours
This is crazy
#122 | Silverflash-x | Posted 8/20/2013 12:07:07 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
This is getting into the realms of ridiculousness, even by this match's standards. Once again, I was only addressing a single point - popularity of a game. We've had WoW entities in these contests and they've never made anything but the slightest waves. Whatever further analyses you want to infer is up to you, but LoL is not a singularly unique entity in terms of playership.

Heck, on that front, Red Bird was in a match a few days ago.


You're right, but I'll make two points:
1. League of Legends is 5-6 times as popular as World of Warcraft was at its peak.
2. League of Legends is much more character-driven than WoW. In WoW, players get attached their created character, unique among the entire population of the game. None of the popular named characters from the game are playable, to my knowledge. League, on the other hand, has a set of pre-made, playable characters, each with a distinct personality.
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#123 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:07:18 AM | message detail
You're grossly underestimating how popular WoW actually was, dude. Honestly I'm pretty sure peak WoW craps on peak League as far as playership goes and it was pay to play so there's probably more passion among the playerbase there given they're paying money to play.
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#124 | anondum | Posted 8/20/2013 12:07:39 AM | message detail
yes there are two things about the lol community

they love dumb things
they love ruining other people's fun

draven is both!
#125 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:07:52 AM | message detail
This is going to break the Kefka/Vercetti record for most stats topics in a day, huh?
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#126 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:08:15 AM | message detail
Zinganger posted...
He's still increasing.

3 Hours in.

AND HE'S STILL INCREASING.

HOW?!


Well, he's routinely getting 70% of the vote. Heck he's had a few updates where he's nearly tripled both MMX and Ryu combined. He has to keep going up with those numbers <_<
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#127 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:09:05 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
This is going to break the Kefka/Vercetti record for most stats topics in a day, huh?


Just wait for Draven/Link then...!
#128 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/20/2013 12:09:24 AM | message detail
How much is Draven gonna beat Link by at this point?
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#129 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:10:02 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
This is going to break the Kefka/Vercetti record for most stats topics in a day, huh?


Wasn't that four? I feel like discussion without a close match isn't going to break that unless Bacon does something ridiculous.
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#130 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:10:20 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
You're grossly underestimating how popular WoW actually was, dude. Honestly I'm pretty sure peak WoW craps on peak League as far as playership goes and it was pay to play so there's probably more passion among the playerbase there given they're paying money to play.


No, there were actually official comparisons made. LoL has already eclipsed Warcraft at its peak! I think it was one of those charts RIOT released. Googling something like 'LoL chart update' should probably find it for you.
#131 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:10:41 AM | message detail
I think by the time Draven/Link actually rolls around we'll have Draven fatigue. Unless Link can actually put up a fight it'll mostly just be a morbid fascination with seeing our erstwhile god of the contests get massacred by a character who he could break 90% on in normal conditions.
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#132 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:10:59 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
This is going to break the Kefka/Vercetti record for most stats topics in a day, huh?


Wasn't that four? I feel like discussion without a close match isn't going to break that unless Bacon does something ridiculous.


Seven, IIRC. We're still very far away.
#133 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:11:04 AM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
How much is Draven gonna beat Link by at this point?

Might come close to a tripling, honestly.
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#134 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/20/2013 12:11:07 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
You're grossly underestimating how popular WoW actually was, dude. Honestly I'm pretty sure peak WoW craps on peak League as far as playership goes and it was pay to play so there's probably more passion among the playerbase there given they're paying money to play.


Uhhh, peak League of Legends gets over 12 million players A DAY. That's more than WoW's peak subscriber base total.

And comparing userbase is stupid. The real difference is clear. LoL fans care enough to sustain a rally like this. WoW and other userbases haven't shown that ability.
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#135 | tgs2 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:11:49 AM | message detail
3:10 update

Draven: 21793
L-block in 2007: 15212

Might as well see if he can beat entire matches from 2010/GotD on his own.
#136 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:11:58 AM | message detail
This is the point where I accept defeat and now im going to rage about losing more points by having X>Ryu rather than Ryu>X
This is so stupid this actually annoys me more than Draven winning
#137 | Xuxon | Posted 8/20/2013 12:12:01 AM | message detail
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/20/2013 3:07:18 AM | #123
You're grossly underestimating how popular WoW actually was, dude. Honestly I'm pretty sure peak WoW craps on peak League as far as playership goes and it was pay to play so there's probably more passion among the playerbase there given they're paying money to play.

no, you're grossly underestimating how popular LoL actually is now. and there is just as much opportunity to pay for LoL even after you own it, it's optional but with direct rewards for doing so.
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#138 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/20/2013 12:12:26 AM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/Nlk8imP.png

Match redeemed.
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#139 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:12:38 AM | message detail
So he's tripled X.

Probably ~7 more updates before he doubles both.
#140 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:12:50 AM | message detail
Some insane LoL fans care enough to set up a few machines to stuff 400 votes an update yeah.

WoW could do this too if it had the right people.
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#141 | Xuxon | Posted 8/20/2013 12:12:52 AM | message detail
From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 8/20/2013 3:12:26 AM | #138
http://i.imgur.com/Nlk8imP.png

Match redeemed.

Priceless.
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#142 | Blairville | Posted 8/20/2013 12:14:03 AM | message detail
The real reason Draven is winning so hard; LoL's servers are down. Ranked queues stopped at 1:30 EST, and the whole server went down for maintenance 15 minutes ago. I guess the players went to reddit instead of bed.
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#143 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/20/2013 12:14:15 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I think by the time Draven/Link actually rolls around we'll have Draven fatigue. Unless Link can actually put up a fight it'll mostly just be a morbid fascination with seeing our erstwhile god of the contests get massacred by a character who he could break 90% on in normal conditions.


That's the same **** we said about L-Block bubba
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#144 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:14:46 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
http://i.imgur.com/Nlk8imP.png

Match redeemed.


Wyoming best state ever
#145 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:15:53 AM | message detail
Thanks to Draven, MWC just got Suspended again. Guess backing the Glorious Executioner has its perks!
#146 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/20/2013 12:16:06 AM | message detail
Blairville posted...
The real reason Draven is winning so hard; LoL's servers are down. Ranked queues stopped at 1:30 EST, and the whole server went down for maintenance 15 minutes ago. I guess the players went to reddit instead of bed.


Wasn't Draven already winning long before then?
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#147 | Blairville | Posted 8/20/2013 12:16:40 AM | message detail
Yeah, but it explains why he isn't decreasing.
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#148 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:16:47 AM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I think by the time Draven/Link actually rolls around we'll have Draven fatigue. Unless Link can actually put up a fight it'll mostly just be a morbid fascination with seeing our erstwhile god of the contests get massacred by a character who he could break 90% on in normal conditions.


That's the same **** we said about L-Block bubba


No it's not, you have no idea what you're talking about. Link isn't capable of breaking 90% on even the weakest incarnation of L-Block. Heck, Draven may not be capable of that.
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#149 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:17:07 AM | message detail
Blairville posted...
The real reason Draven is winning so hard; LoL's servers are down. Ranked queues stopped at 1:30 EST, and the whole server went down for maintenance 15 minutes ago. I guess the players went to reddit instead of bed.


DravenFEAR - the maintenance is actually to put a "Vote Draven" splash in the main lobby linking to this poll
If it happens,it will make Draven get 90% here
#150 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:18:25 AM | message detail
You know what else explains Draven not decreasing?

400 stuffed votes per 5 minutes
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