GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1120
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Snake's final mission was supposed to be to save us from Link. War has changed. --- Ace Detective for Hire http://i.imgur.com/SCJ4z22.jpg |
StealThisSheen posted... ...So, wait. Now you're backpedaling. Yes, Soap/Big Daddy wasn't as high as some other night matches - this is primarily because it should have been at the bottom of the barrel, and potentially a contender for lowest votal match of the round. The fact that it ends up in the upper implies elevated runoff totals. Draven's match provided no such inference for the match succeeding his last time. There should be *some* residual effect; there always is. Your making a distinction between a failed and successful rally is the fabrication - it doesn't pass the eye test. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Given
that Draven is in a strong position to win the entire contest, maybe we
can have a bonus match after the contest ends, but with
Link/Snake/Mario or Link/Cloud/Mario depending on the other 2 characters
that reach the finals as well. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Draven is starting to slow down now. --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
Ignoring
rally and using X strength and average number of votes for night
match,how many votes is X supposed to have by the 2:30 into the match
time mark? Link had 5790,X now has 6257 so it's obvious he got some of the votes from the rally ....But we are talking about such a low amount,probably about 5% of the people from Reddit are voting for X If someone can calculate it better it can be nice thanks |
By
the way I think we're looking about 4-500 stuffed votes per 5 going to
Draven just by eyeballing it. If you assume Draven's rally strength
relative to MMX and Ryu is relatively consistent then that's about what
you need for the dropoff to line up. That is 900 extra votes = ~100-150 extra votes for MMX+Ryu 700 extra votes = ~40 extra votes for MMX + Ryu. Subtract 4-500 from both numbers and you get numbers a lot closer to what you'd expect for the MMX/Ryu dropoff. But maybe I'm just insane and our anti-stuffing measures are working as intended. (fun fact if you subtract 450x24 from Draven's total he's still winning but it's a very slim margin) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Personal
salt aside, these contests won't end just because of
Draven/Reddit...but if traffic on GameFAQs has actually been improving
in past years like SB says despite our declining vote-totals, he may
want to figure out how to get OUR site to vote more first so this is
less likely in the future. We'll look like GameSpot until then..... BlAcK TuRtLe posted... X and Ryu are 2 gaming icons, and I have to think that at least 20% of the LoL fanboys would support them, especially since Draven isn't particularly liked even in his own game. Back when GameFAQsASCII was a thing, I once tested this theory by rallying Arbiter from Halo 2 against Zero from some Halo-site. ~90% of the hundreds of new votes were for Arbiter...so if Arbiter can maintain almost all of the intended rally against Zero, Draven's bound to keep his. I don't get LoL, but it seems like they legitimately like him to some degree (better than Arbiter for Halo-fans, anyway). --- T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
Karma Hunter posted... StealThisSheen posted......So, wait. How am I backpedaling? You said rallies have a huge impact on following matches. That's not always true. The impact on Soap/Big Daddy wasn't nearly as big as Big Daddy/Tifa. And the fact that it still lost to matches that weren't effected by rallying whatsoever means we don't know how much it actually increased from rally residue. It's also worth mentioning that there's less likely to be carry over from night matches into day matches than there are day matches into night matches. --- SEP Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/456/2z6v0qcgif.gif |
Looks
good. About the same pace of stuffing as Starcraft had against SSBM,
only they stopped after 20 minutes in that one (or CJayC caught it). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
How much does Draven get on Link right now based off a consistent MMX? --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
It's probably a bad sign that I care so little that I'm not even trying to analyze the numbers for signs of stuffing. --- Ace Detective for Hire Link, for example, is a classic beta male. -UltimaterializerX |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/954437-league-of-legends Huh... --- Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690 http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png |
Pfffft this is freakin awesome. Jeez. People complaining honestly seem like they're panicking a bit. Like they're predicting a dark future of LoL dominance forever. And that's not out of the realms of possibility, but I'm not prepared to believe that's what will happen until the end of these things. I've got everything crossed that Draven beats Link, then we'll reassess from there. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Right now, this match is only about 4000 votes behind Link/Cloud/L-Block/Snake at this point in time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
LoL is going to be terrifying in a games contest. Like, if Draven can do this, the game itself will be insanely difficult to defeat. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Given that Draven is in a strong position to win the entire contest, maybe we can have a bonus match after the contest ends, but with Link/Snake/Mario or Link/Cloud/Mario depending on the other 2 characters that reach the finals as well. I saw your post on Reddit -- don't act like you still want to get a legitimate final! Besides, after Trainers/FF7 in the Rivalry Rumble, it seems that trusting such types of bonus polls brings lots of controversy...which Draven's already providing in spades. --- T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
MegatokyoEd posted... How much does Draven get on Link right now based off a consistent MMX? 60.86% --- Ace Detective for Hire http://i.imgur.com/syEAJLe.gif |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67029040 Because to quote Pigeonhed, "Got a revolution behind my eyes, we got to get up and organize". Let's do it. |
Don't worry I'll do it for you guys. Shame only like two people actually care enough to read ANALYSIS ON STUFFING, but yeah. Anyone who's saying there isn't any stuffing here is pretty naive the signs are pretty hard to ignore imhhho. I think in the end this will be an MMX win without stuffing but it'll be pretty close. Unfortunately even at 400 extra stuffed votes per 5 I don't think Link can win. Barring Bacon actually getting off his ass this contest is over. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
StealThisSheen posted... Karma Hunter posted...StealThisSheen posted......So, wait. Another tiresome backpedal. Your entire statement at issue, whether you want to weasel out of it or not, is that there would not be elevated vote totals in the match following a rallied match. There routinely is, which you can see in virtually any match we've ever had going all the way back to Mario/Cloud. The extent of the elevated totals is up for debate, but if you think Soap/Big Daddy would have naturally been one of the highest votal night matches of the first round otherwise it's not worth wasting further arguments on. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I'm reading the ANALYSIS I just don't think it will matter in the end! I'd love to be wrong, I just don't think I am here! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
There is no stuffing. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Lopen posted... By the way I think we're looking about 4-500 stuffed votes per 5 going to Draven just by eyeballing it. If you assume Draven's rally strength relative to MMX and Ryu is relatively consistent then that's about what you need for the dropoff to line up. Hm...does it answer my question? If I understand correctly,one of 10 votes go to Ryu\X...? This is too damn low |
There is definitely stuffing. Draven is getting some legit rally support, but it is not this much. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Well
it matters in trying to determine if anyone can actually beat Draven.
If you have rally + GameFAQs votes > stuffed votes per 5 then Draven
can feasibly be defeated. If not he can't. So trying to determine
exactly how many votes are being stuffed is actually pretty useful for
figuring out if this machine can be stopped! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
If I wake up to Allen purging the stuffed votes I will be ecstatic. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
I
don't understand why much if any rallied votes would be going to
MMX/Ryu. If people are told to go here and vote for Draven, they're not
going to bother looking at the other options. They're going in with a
biased mind. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
Our
best hope is Bacon taking action and removing stuffed votes. And I
think the odds of waking up to see that has happened are not bad. This
is so blatant. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Seems like every time I enter the stats topic, KH is accusing someone of backpedaling. --- FFIXOwner Character Battle IX Bracket: 76/87 |
I didn't think there would ever be a situation where I would vote for Link but it looks like there is one! --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
How the contest will actually end: - Draven wins this match (obviously) - Despite the site coming together to stop the Draven rally, Draven destroys Link, and all hopes of anyone else winning the contest die with link. - Zelda fans, mourning the loss of Link so early in the contest, make Epona their Link proxy. Epona suddenly beats Snake in Round 3. - Epona, with the combination of a being a Link proxy and a joke character, storms past Cloud to reach the finals where she faces Draven and Mario. - Epona, who now has stronger joke votes than L-Block ever did at his peak is also boosted by Mario sacrificing his votes to the horse. Even with all this, it's still not enough to beat Draven in a close match that comes down to the final few hours. - In the last hour, Epona gets a rally from My Little Pony fans, overtaking Draven to win the contest. It takes a Zelda joke character with Link revenge/proxy votes, a Mario sacrafice and a brony rally to defeat League of Legends, and it will be amazing. SHAPED LIKE A HORSE TO TRAMPLE YOUR ASS EPONA 2013, BELEIVE! --- "Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..." |
Ridiculous and if there isn't any stuffing going on then we're seeing the winner of the contest right here. |
A good chunk of the reason I can't care about it is that I don't think Allen will do anything about it even if it is the case. --- Ace Detective for Hire http://i.imgur.com/nVtbh0W.gif |
Nanis23 posted... Lopen posted...By the way I think we're looking about 4-500 stuffed votes per 5 going to Draven just by eyeballing it. If you assume Draven's rally strength relative to MMX and Ryu is relatively consistent then that's about what you need for the dropoff to line up. If you assume 4-500 stuffed votes per 5, Ryu/X are drawing about 25-35% of rallied votes. If you assume 0 are stuffed per 5, Ryu/X are drawing between 5-15% are going to them depending on how the poll is. The answer is probably closer to the 35%, but may be somewhere in between. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
KanzarisKelshen posted... http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67029040 To be serious again for a moment, I think you (and a lot of people on the board, not necessarily in this topic) are missing the point of a fair amount of the objectors. I'm not "upset" that Draven is going to rally his way past Link, etc. I'm just down that rallies themselves are going to trample the stats. And I don't really think you can rally for stopping rallies. I mean, "congrats" I guess you win that but it's totally missing the point. Similarly, I do still have Crono/Pikachu/Magus to look forward to because that should stay intact. I'm going all in on that match. Crono will once more be my highlight of a contest! ...unless Pikachu just crushes him or something. That would be unfortunate. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
LOLContests posted... I don't understand why much if any rallied votes would be going to MMX/Ryu. If people are told to go here and vote for Draven, they're not going to bother looking at the other options. They're going in with a biased mind. Eh, look at the topics on Reddit and you can see plenty of evidence to contradict this. The majority of posts there are saying they're voting for MMX or Ryu. Of course that may very well be a case of a vocal minority, but also realize that about 1/4 of the votes are downvotes, and it may not be as much of a minority as you think. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
We
might be able to defeat LoL in a Games Contest if it's divided by era.
If we banded together we could nominate enough games in its "division"
to make sure it couldn't get in. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
I'm
a stathead but the thing I care about least is the stats. I'd rather
the stats be useless in order to increase the contest's
unpredictability, honestly. I'm not enthused about seeing Draven win because of a pretty obvious and selfish reason - I don't particularly like him. There's no point in harping on it because what's done is done, but it's pretty simple. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Lopen posted... Nanis23 posted...Lopen posted...By the way I think we're looking about 4-500 stuffed votes per 5 going to Draven just by eyeballing it. If you assume Draven's rally strength relative to MMX and Ryu is relatively consistent then that's about what you need for the dropoff to line up. This is actually sounds legit...crap 25-30% going to characters other than the rallied character sounds normal |
-Tofa7- posted... How the contest will actually end: This has to happen. |
I really do hope most/all of these Draven votes are legit. --- You think this is over because I am dead. It's not over. The games have just begun. |
I'm
not saying that there isn't any stuffing; my point is that it's
impossible to know. The simple fact is that this contest has simply never
seen a game as popular globally as League of Legends, or even anything
in the same category. With no reference point for the game or the
character, it's impossible to know how much of what's going on is
rallying and how much is stuffing, if any. You can't deny that there is a
huge, legitimate rally, and that this rally has immense strength
due to the sheer popularity of the game. Whether there is stuffing in
addition to the rally (and whether that stuffing is significant enough
to make Draven win the match) only Allen can determine, --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
xp1337 posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67029040 That's fair. That's just a differing viewpoint, really. I don't see a poll as something static. Not in this day and age. We live in the era of information, the era where ten dudes can get together, make a marathon of games made contra natura, and feasibly raise a million dollars for charity, all without no capitalist backing. GameFAQS has changed. The world has changed. It's about we changed too, to go along with it. |
-Tofa7- posted... How the contest will actually end: This is actually hilariously possible up to this point. A tremendous long shot, but possible! Draven vs Epona vs Mario would be incredible because you have the overwhelming force of the off-site favorite threatening to destroy our contests, the strongest joke character ever due to joke power combined with Zelda proxy power, and the ultimate anti-rally/anti-joke force in these contests. --- Ace Detective for Hire http://i.imgur.com/wiYtT.png |
Karma Hunter posted... I'm a stathead but the thing I care about least is the stats. I'd rather the stats be useless in order to increase the contest's unpredictability, honestly. Then maybe I am as isolated in my opinion here as I sometimes think I am! I mean, part of me doesn't even want to see a Link rally materialize just because it would be hypocritical. On the other hand, the idea of a Link rally being sustained strains my sense of credibility so I'd expect it to be a one-time thing and we'd be back to business as usual so I guess it's maybe the lesser of two evils there but I admit I'm getting into hypocrisy there. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
if
it's stuffing it's not going to be catchable because of the nature of
it - it'd be like the way a DDOS works, but instead of trying to destroy
the site all the computers are used to vote for Draven. the LOL fanbase
has been known to DDOS things before. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Silverflash-x posted... I'm not saying that there isn't any stuffing; my point is that it's impossible to know. The simple fact is that this contest has simply never seen a game as popular globally as League of Legends, or even anything in the same category. We've, uh, had Warcraft. That's at least somewhat comparable. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
he's still rising this is insane. --- sc2us: MileS.151 |
Okay so here's one way to look at it: By the end of the round, Draven will have more votes than all the contestants receive in any given match, meaning for GameFAQs voters - i.e. people who actually follow the site / contest - the vote you cast in your own site's poll no longer matters. Who knows, Bacon might have to put his foot down. --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
-Tofa7- posted... How the contest will actually end: I cried reading this sir. Thank you. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
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