Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1119

#451 | creativename | Posted 8/19/2013 10:56:18 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
335k really isn't that much and makes me think this can't be legit... How much did Kerrigan win the finals by in that gamespot contest? She got rallied by Husky (835k subscribers right now pretty sure he was around like 450k back during that contest) and tons of other big starcraft community members and I'm pretty sure she never had a vote intake anywhere near this. This is a FAR less organized rally and it is getting votes at a ridiculous rate.

Yeah, these people talking about "If 10% of subscribers vote..." aren't understanding that there is no way anything like that high of a %age would ever happen. That's not how things work. You'd be lucky to get 1% of subscribers to vote. If Lebron James tweeted to ask people to vote for Link, he'd get a very tiny fraction of the numbers we are seeing here.

Getting 700 votes every 5 minutes in the middle of the night? You have to be naive to think this is legit. Sadly Bacon will let it stand.

It's not even in Bacon's interests though, as these "visitors" (even if they were real people) will vote and never visit the site again.

Link is going to get doubled or so. If he breaks 40% on Draven consider it a moral victory.
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#452 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/19/2013 10:57:10 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
Metal_DK posted...

Not to turn this into some MGS4 reference, but gaming and gaming social media has changed a lot in just the past 3 or so years. The league of legends subreddit has almost 335k subscribers. What type of forum/centralized location has that many people devoted to just one game?.


335k really isn't that much and makes me think this can't be legit... How much did Kerrigan win the finals by in that gamespot contest? She got rallied by Husky (835k subscribers right now pretty sure he was around like 450k back during that contest) and tons of other big starcraft community members and I'm pretty sure she never had a vote intake anywhere near this. This is a FAR less organized rally and it is getting votes at a ridiculous rate.


Yeah - assuming Draven has rallied 550 votes an update since that 800 vote update, that means that nearly 3% of the total subscribers have voted Draven. 3%.

At this time of the night. In an hour and a half.

That seems unfeasible.
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*shrug*
#453 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 10:57:48 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Link literally cannot get enough votes to win if this is replicated. I don't know if some of you understand this. Draven is looking to end up with far more votes, on his own, than any singular poll in this contest so far. 100% of this site could rally around Link and still loses easily.

I do, I'm just saying Link is the best hope here and the idea that someone else can succeed where he fails is just not realistic.

I don't think Link has much of a chance here, this is too much, even for him.
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#454 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 10:57:49 PM | message detail
My one final hope that GameFAQs isn't dead is that Bacon is just waiting until the very end of the poll to remove the stuffed votes so that there is no more attempted in-match stuffing.
#455 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/19/2013 10:57:50 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Ah, I see. I misunderstood you - thought you were thinking in terms of series as opposed to sites. Yes, that makes sense to me. I'm not sure how that acts as a rebuttal for my comment that I'd like GameFAQS enormous popularity as a gaming site (it's like, what, Top 10 or so?) to be reflects in the character battles, and for the mainstream vote to be more fairly represented in the polls. It's just a wish, after all.

I thought you were suggesting that's what you believe to be the case, not what you wish to be the case.

The only rebuttal I can offer to that is a single character no one here cares about being rallied to victory doesn't bring us any closer to your wish. Master Chief still lost to Yuna. Lloyd Irving beat a Bioshock character. A secondary Fire Emblem player character in Tharja beat out a Borderlands 2 character and the star of a reasonably big action game. The "Best New Character of the Year" award-winning antagonist of Far Cry 3 got stomped on by a super niche jRPG protagonist and a secondary heroine from a game about relationships and pushing around blocks. And after this contest, League of Legends is not going to be some big GameFAQs thing.
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#456 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 10:59:34 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
My one final hope that GameFAQs isn't dead is that Bacon is just waiting until the very end of the poll to remove the stuffed votes so that there is no more attempted in-match stuffing.

Better chance of a successful MMX counter-rally than Bacon intervening!
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#457 | Metal_DK | Posted 8/19/2013 10:59:43 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Youtube, Reddit et al are not really gaming sites though. That ain't a fair comparison. Streaming sites...that's more legit. Curious how the votes of the Twitch demographic would differ from GameFAQS'!


they aren't gaming sites directly, but thats where people are going to talk gaming now. Which is what gamefaqs is
#458 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 11:00:12 PM | message detail
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.
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#459 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 11:01:02 PM | message detail
you all did this to yourselves btw

next year a freakin' 1v1, 64 character bracket

no gimmicks

half-decent bracketmaking

IT'S NOT LIKE THE STATS WILL BE USEABLE FROM THIS ONE
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#460 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:01:07 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.

Well, yeah. I think we mostly expected that!
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#461 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:01:46 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Ah, I see. I misunderstood you - thought you were thinking in terms of series as opposed to sites. Yes, that makes sense to me. I'm not sure how that acts as a rebuttal for my comment that I'd like GameFAQS enormous popularity as a gaming site (it's like, what, Top 10 or so?) to be reflects in the character battles, and for the mainstream vote to be more fairly represented in the polls. It's just a wish, after all.

I thought you were suggesting that's what you believe to be the case, not what you wish to be the case.

The only rebuttal I can offer to that is a single character no one here cares about being rallied to victory doesn't bring us any closer to your wish. Master Chief still lost to Yuna. Lloyd Irving beat a Bioshock character. A secondary Fire Emblem player character in Tharja beat out a Borderlands 2 character and the star of a reasonably big action game. The "Best New Character of the Year" award-winning antagonist of Far Cry 3 got stomped on by a super niche jRPG protagonist and a secondary heroine from a game about relationships and pushing around blocks. And after this contest, League of Legends is not going to be some big GameFAQs thing.


One step at a time, Rad. We're going to see if the theory I am working on for how contests will work from now on pans out next round. Gotta have some faith for now.
#462 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:02:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
you all did this to yourselves btw

next year a freakin' 1v1, 64 character bracket

no gimmicks

half-decent bracketmaking

IT'S NOT LIKE THE STATS WILL BE USEABLE FROM THIS ONE

"you all"

That's what I always wanted!
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#463 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:02:12 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
There's a topic on the board debating which champions to put into next bracket.


Why do you hate me?
#464 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:02:25 PM | message detail
Also your wish is silly anyway, because you're asking to homogenize a unique site, instead of just going to a mainstream site.
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#465 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 11:02:38 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.


More evidence that it's not legit.
#466 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/19/2013 11:02:45 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
you all did this to yourselves btw

next year a freakin' 1v1, 64 character bracket

no gimmicks

half-decent bracketmaking

IT'S NOT LIKE THE STATS WILL BE USEABLE FROM THIS ONE


We never even asked for this format... =(

Most of us have been patiently waiting almost a decade for the 1v1 no era games contest that still eludes us.
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#467 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:03:02 PM | message detail
Oh, yeah, this definitely isn't legitimate, but it's at least partially legitimate. I think Draven's probably getting around 50% of legitimate rallied votes. The point is Ryu and MMX are getting 200 extra votes per update or so combined so assuming like, half of these extra votes are probably legit, and Mario can get more of them. Mario's greater preference here combined with rally backfire could defeat the stuffing.

*shrug
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#468 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:03:55 PM | message detail
I don't see Bacon doing anything to this poll and I don't see him banning Draven or anything - he didn't ban L-Block in 2008.

Also, people saying this is the end of contests are being kinda silly - we still have about the same number of upper tier characters what with Sonic and Crono falling to Earth a bit more. Plus if one of them just gets their strength from rallies then there could be a hilarious upset at any point. <_<
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#469 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:06:06 PM | message detail | (edited)
Lopen posted...
Oh, yeah, this definitely isn't legitimate, but it's at least partially legitimate. I think Draven's probably getting around 50% of legitimate rallied votes. The point is Ryu and MMX are getting 200 extra votes per update or so combined so assuming like, half of these extra votes are probably legit, and Mario can get more of them. Mario's greater preference here combined with rally backfire could defeat the stuffing.

*shrug

Yeah, but even if we run with that, we still would need Bacon to remove the votes. And do we really expect that to happen?

Oh, I think I see what you're saying. Still don't see it!
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#470 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:04:40 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.


More evidence that it's not legit.


...How is this evidence that it's not legit?

Rallies don't work that way.

I like Nightmare. If I didn't care about the contest, and somebody rallied to vote Nightmare, and I went and voted Nightmare... I'm not going to vote in any match Nightmare isn't in.
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#471 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:04:45 PM | message detail
Then again it's possible the stuff bot is throttled back even now so maybe it's just not beatable no matter what happens. I don't know. It looked like 100 stuffed votes per update last round now I'm guessing more like 400. How high can it go?
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#472 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 11:04:56 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
you all did this to yourselves btw

next year a freakin' 1v1, 64 character bracket

no gimmicks

half-decent bracketmaking

IT'S NOT LIKE THE STATS WILL BE USEABLE FROM THIS ONE


We never even asked for this format... =(

Most of us have been patiently waiting almost a decade for the 1v1 no era games contest that still eludes us.


well yeah that one's just Ceej and Bacon trolling you
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#473 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 11:05:00 PM | message detail
With our abysmal votals this was probably going to be the last contest anyway. Draven and reddit are just ruining it now and making sure that it's the last one.
#474 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/19/2013 11:05:28 PM | message detail
Well this is just the stupidest thing ever.
On the plus side, 1st in the guru before everything goes to hell!
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#475 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/19/2013 11:05:56 PM | message detail
Its only been 2 hours and this match already has more votes than some of the round 1 matches.
#476 | Metal_DK | Posted 8/19/2013 11:05:57 PM | message detail
nintendogirl1 posted...
JJH777 posted...
Metal_DK posted...

Not to turn this into some MGS4 reference, but gaming and gaming social media has changed a lot in just the past 3 or so years. The league of legends subreddit has almost 335k subscribers. What type of forum/centralized location has that many people devoted to just one game?.


335k really isn't that much and makes me think this can't be legit... How much did Kerrigan win the finals by in that gamespot contest? She got rallied by Husky (835k subscribers right now pretty sure he was around like 450k back during that contest) and tons of other big starcraft community members and I'm pretty sure she never had a vote intake anywhere near this. This is a FAR less organized rally and it is getting votes at a ridiculous rate.


Yeah - assuming Draven has rallied 550 votes an update since that 800 vote update, that means that nearly 3% of the total subscribers have voted Draven. 3%.

At this time of the night. In an hour and a half.

That seems unfeasible.


but thats assuming reddit is the only source. Which it probably isnt. 3% does seem unfeasible, but 2% of that subreddit is logged in right now. Combine with streams, and other sources, this does seem reasonable for now. If this type of strength stays this way all night, then ya I think its absurd to think no foul play was involved. But for now, I think it could be reasonable.
#477 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 11:06:16 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.


More evidence that it's not legit.


...How is this evidence that it's not legit?

Rallies don't work that way.

I like Nightmare. If I didn't care about the contest, and somebody rallied to vote Nightmare, and I went and voted Nightmare... I'm not going to vote in any match Nightmare isn't in.


That's not how rallies work. When Missingno fell to Sephiroth, the backlash immediately and very noticeably affected Tifa/Big Daddy.
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#478 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 11:06:22 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.


More evidence that it's not legit.


...How is this evidence that it's not legit?

Rallies don't work that way.

I like Nightmare. If I didn't care about the contest, and somebody rallied to vote Nightmare, and I went and voted Nightmare... I'm not going to vote in any match Nightmare isn't in.


Every single other time we've had a major rally, there has been a strong spillover into the next match as people watched to the end then voted in the following match. Here, there's nothing. Not a single increased vote from the next match.
#479 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:06:41 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Also your wish is silly anyway, because you're asking to homogenize a unique site, instead of just going to a mainstream site.


Mainstream sites don't have the contests, and they don't have you guys. If my wish comes true, there is no loss for me, only gain.
#480 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 11:06:46 PM | message detail
I don't think Reddit and LoL are going to try this again in the next Character Battle contest. Maybe this same thing might happen again if we get a Games Contest, but I don't see this happening in the next Character Battle contest.
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#481 | scifi1980 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:06:57 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
you all did this to yourselves btw

next year a freakin' 1v1, 64 character bracket

no gimmicks

half-decent bracketmaking

IT'S NOT LIKE THE STATS WILL BE USEABLE FROM THIS ONE

"you all"

That's what I always wanted!



64 character tournament, seeded at random, and no past winners. That way, people won't complain about Link always winning at there is a chance the sure things will end up against eachother in the first round which will give some longshots a fighting chance.


Also, I don't like the prize offer for the prediction contest. Just because it skews the voting process as people are going in thinking "who is everybody most likely going to vote for?" and they vote against they're favorite for a slim to none chance of winning some gift cards.
#482 | ArtosRC | Posted 8/19/2013 11:07:26 PM | message detail
I had totally forgotten about Reddit.

I can only imagine the unleashed fury come the Link/Shepard battle.
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#483 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:07:31 PM | message detail
We've only seen vote intake like this twice in the history of the contests IIRC. One was L-Block at the beginning of the 2007 final. The other was Starcraft's 20 minutes of major stuffing against SSBM.

Bacon, time to strike down this stuffing.
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#484 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:07:38 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.


More evidence that it's not legit.


...How is this evidence that it's not legit?

Rallies don't work that way.

I like Nightmare. If I didn't care about the contest, and somebody rallied to vote Nightmare, and I went and voted Nightmare... I'm not going to vote in any match Nightmare isn't in.


That's not how rallies work. When Missingno fell to Sephiroth, the backlash immediately and very noticeably affected Tifa/Big Daddy.


Because the rally failed. In this case, the rally is succeeding.
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#485 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/19/2013 11:07:48 PM | message detail
So is Draven the new L-Block this contest? WTF
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#486 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:07:57 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...

Yeah, but even if we run with that, we still would need Bacon to remove the votes. And do we really expect that to happen?


Oh, no, I'm saying like, we're hoping as much of these votes are legitimately rallied as possible, because it dilutes the effect of the stuffing. I'm not depending on Bacon actually doing anything about the stuffing that'd just be stupid. He's not going to.

Like uh, consider the following.

GameFAQs pulls in 200 votes an update. Rally pulls in 300, 500 stuffed for Draven. At that level, Draven literally cannot lose, even if the rally 100% backfires and GameFAQs 100% goes for Link.

However if we assume it's 200 GameFAQs, 500 rally, 300 stuffed, suddenly Link has a small chance to win. If he can split the rally with Draven 50-50 he's very much in the match.
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#487 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 11:08:29 PM | message detail
No past winners is a bracket where Snake is by far the strongest character, barring a Draven-style entry. I want to see him earn it, not get fed cupcakes like Seph and the Villains Contest.
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#488 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/19/2013 11:09:28 PM | message detail
how many votes is Draven getting stuffed right now
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#489 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:09:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, I figured out what you meant by that after I replied! Misunderstood at first!
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#490 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:09:56 PM | message detail
#491 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 11:10:03 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
On the same day as Draven's round 1 match, the day match right after Draven's match ended did not appear to have any kind of elevated vote totals. So I don't think this rally is going to increase vote totals for the other non-Draven matches in this contest.


More evidence that it's not legit.


...How is this evidence that it's not legit?

Rallies don't work that way.

I like Nightmare. If I didn't care about the contest, and somebody rallied to vote Nightmare, and I went and voted Nightmare... I'm not going to vote in any match Nightmare isn't in.


That's not how rallies work. When Missingno fell to Sephiroth, the backlash immediately and very noticeably affected Tifa/Big Daddy.


Because the rally failed. In this case, the rally is succeeding.


Not how it works. Soap/Big Daddy had elevated totals for a night match after Crono/Missingno, which succeeded.
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#492 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:10:06 PM | message detail
Either way

Anybody saying this is going to stop any future contests from happening is dumb.

Rallies cause traffic.

Traffic is what Bacon wants.

If anything, it makes future contests more likely.
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#493 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 11:10:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
No past winners is a bracket where Snake is by far the strongest character, barring a Draven-style entry. I want to see him earn it, not get fed cupcakes like Seph and the Villains Contest.


Snake still counts as the winner of the Male bracket anyway. He wouldn't be in!
#494 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:11:03 PM | message detail
Wait, people actually suggested this would keep Bacon from making more contests?

Because that just sounds silly!
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#495 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 11:11:19 PM | message detail
Chief/Dante/L-Block/Snake at 2:10 AM - 25641
Draven/Ryu/MMX at 2:10 AM - 25148
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#496 | swordz9 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:11:31 PM | message detail
Man Draven is still pulling in 500+ votes an update. There's no way this can keep consistently happening.
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#497 | JJH777 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:11:38 PM | message detail
does anyone remember how many votes kerrigan finished at in the gamespot contest finals? I cant seem to find it and I think that would be a good indicator to see how legit this is. Kerrigan got so many rallies from high profile sc2 community members. I have trouble believing a simple reddit rally can compare. If there was a LoL version of Husky rallying it might be believable but AFAIK there isn't.
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#498 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/19/2013 11:11:47 PM | message detail
Play...something besides LoL.
#499 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/19/2013 11:11:52 PM | message detail
Snake will save us guys
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#500 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/19/2013 11:12:08 PM | message detail
Seriously
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