Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1118

#151 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:49:06 PM | message detail
*not first, instead of last -_-
#152 | FFDragon | Posted 8/19/2013 7:51:26 PM | message detail
Draven is getting like 15% tops here guys.
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#153 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 7:51:33 PM | message detail
sounds like someone's coming down with a case of DravenFEAR
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#154 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:52:49 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
Draven is getting like 1% tops here guys.
#155 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2013 7:52:57 PM | message detail
How bad do you figure Draven does without a rally..?

How about with a rally?
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#156 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:54:09 PM | message detail
Match LXXXIV: (3) Draven vs. (15) Ryu vs. (7) Mega Man X

Previous Round

Draven – 40.47%
Jak – 33.20%
Chie Satonaka – 26.34%

Ryu – 56.19%
Yuri Lowell – 26.41%
Face McShooty – 17.40%

Mega Man X – 65.22%
Jigglypuff – 24.01%
Welkin Gunther – 10.76%

Analysis

Draven should finish in last, but considering he is here due to the largest rallies we have ever seen you can never be so confident. Teemo’s performance last round also makes things more difficult to predict. I know he is not the favourite among fans, but not only was there no rally there were almost no attempts in trying to rally for him. Should there be no rally Draven likely struggles to finish above 10% against the two near-elites.

Even if Draven gets a rally it is not guarantee that he will win. I predict Draven will need 11-12000 net votes from the rally which is more than what he did against Jak and Chie. In theory he is capable of getting that many votes, but the rally will need to start earlier and have a longer peak. There is also the issue that it will likely be harder to rally for Draven in this match as more people know and like Mega Man X or Ryu than Jak or Chie and will probably vote for them, negating some of the rally power.

Back to the regular match Mega Man X and Ryu had some debate, it is unlikely that Mega Man X is as strong as Mega Man and Ryu has decent strength where he could capitalize on it. We still do not know Mega Man X’s true strength, but at least we have some idea. Ocelot’s performance on Auron places Mega Man X as the strongest non-Noble Nine character, but it was likely Auron suffered LFF from Roxas and trying to use Ocelot as a constant is very dangerous.

Still that gives Mega Man X quite the buffer to work with and Ryu did not impress last round. I assume Yuri Lowell is somehow stronger now than in 2010, if not Mega Man X is going to win in crushing fashion. I also doubt there will be any Capcom SFF, unlike Nintendo Capcom characters tend to be more separate, even though most of them have had cross-over games. Because this match can go in different directions I have decided to make my prediction in a way to maximize my oracle.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man X > Ryu and Draven

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man X – 44.68%, Ryu – 35.38%, Draven – 19.94%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#157 | paulg235 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/19/2013 7:54:27 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
How bad do you figure Draven does without a rally..?

Draven does so bad, final xstats have Chie losing to Chester.
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#158 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:54:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
sounds like someone's coming down with a case of DravenFEAR


funny, this is the guy that backed out of PokeFEAR
(Mewtwo>Bowser>Sonic, believe...!)
#159 | RockMFR | Posted 8/19/2013 7:56:36 PM | message detail
What's up with the high votals in this match? Was there a rally going on today?
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#160 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:58:30 PM | message detail
Nope, strong characters from different fanbases bring in votes.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#161 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 7:58:50 PM | message detail
I see no evidence of rallies. You have 3 very different fanbases represented in this match and 2 of those characters are big names.
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#162 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:00:52 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
MarioSuperstar posted...
How bad do you figure Draven does without a rally..?

Draven does so bad, final xstats have Chie losing to Chester.


hey now, let's not get crazy here


actually this means Mewtwo goes crazy, I can get behind this
#163 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 8:01:04 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
Are there any prepared draven rallies? ...

.. X could very well be in last for hours upon hours.


I've got one ready for the LoL forums in NA and Europe, as well as Reddit and 4chan. Gotta go all out to have a chance!
#164 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:02:41 PM | message detail
what happened to preparing a rally during division 8
#165 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 8:04:44 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
what happened to preparing a rally during division 8


I already did that? But only a fool puts up a topic early when you can't even vote, that was for coordinating people to get as many eyes sites in on the rally as possible come match time. You have to strike the iron when it's hot!
#166 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:06:27 PM | message detail
you should play poker, you might be able to bluff lots of people there
#167 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 8:17:36 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Doesn't this round also need a bonus 12-hour match a la Chester/Kaim/Dancin' before we move into the 24 hour matches? If so, it would be the perfect time to throw a non-game character in a test match against an established game entrant.


There was a suggestion for Link/Batman/Goku, but there were a few people against that idea because we don't want a bonus match to give us any information about the strength of any fictional characters before they officially make their debut in an actual bracket. It's better to have a fictional character contest where we know nothing about any of these fictional characters. It will make for a more unpredictable contest. If Batman had bombed in the bonus match, it would kill off any hope of having a fictional character contest.
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#168 | General_Zimbad | Posted 8/19/2013 8:20:07 PM | message detail
Eh I think Draven will bomb. Don't even like draven, so many other characters from LoL with more appeal.
#169 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:21:26 PM | message detail
I want Garrus/Mordin/Wrex or just a favorite non-Shepard ME character poll after the contest
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#170 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/19/2013 8:22:49 PM | message detail
Ugh, you guys wanna talk about pic sabotage, just look at that X picture. Whoever made that deserves to be shot.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
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#171 | Sorozone | Posted 8/19/2013 8:23:15 PM | message detail
You don't like Gundams?
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#172 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:23:48 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Ugh, you guys wanna talk about pic sabotage, just look at that X picture. Whoever made that deserves to be shot.


I blame KanzarisKelshen
#173 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 8:24:28 PM | message detail
X for 3rd let's get hyped
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#174 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:25:02 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
X for 3rd let's get hyped


Karma Hunter posted...
sounds like someone's coming down with a case of DravenFEAR
#175 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 8:25:23 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Doesn't this round also need a bonus 12-hour match a la Chester/Kaim/Dancin' before we move into the 24 hour matches? If so, it would be the perfect time to throw a non-game character in a test match against an established game entrant.


There was a suggestion for Link/Batman/Goku, but there were a few people against that idea because we don't want a bonus match to give us any information about the strength of any fictional characters before they officially make their debut in an actual bracket. It's better to have a fictional character contest where we know nothing about any of these fictional characters. It will make for a more unpredictable contest. If Batman had bombed in the bonus match, it would kill off any hope of having a fictional character contest.


Yes, but if Batman is going to bomb I'd rather know about it beforehand than waste a whole contest on having weak random characters in it. They don't belong already, but if they could mix things up maybe they're worth having once (I'm personally against it but I understand those who want it). But if they're going to bomb anyway, then I'd much rather know about it and have a 1v1 normal contest instead.
#176 | General_Zimbad | Posted 8/19/2013 8:25:59 PM | message detail
Can someone link the pic? I haven't seen it yet/not sure how to find it exactly.
#177 | pjbasis | Posted 8/19/2013 8:26:07 PM | message detail
NOTHING VENTURED NOTHING GAINED

All in on X
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#178 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:29:31 PM | message detail
P.S.-delete Europe's votes
#179 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 8:34:17 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
NOTHING VENTURED NOTHING GAINED

All in on X


Betting on the favorite is venturing? News to me.
#180 | pjbasis | Posted 8/19/2013 8:36:47 PM | message detail
#181 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:39:23 PM | message detail | (edited)
So I was unexpectedly without internet until tonight, I seem to have missed one or two fun things. Where are the topics archived?

Didn't see it on creativenames' site or ngamer's, though I may have been looking at the wrong thing.
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#182 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 8:38:16 PM | message detail
Incidentally, as it turns out Luster is the secret mastermind behind the Draven rally. Don't tell anyone!
#183 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 8:38:36 PM | message detail
This might be our most-hyped match since... Missingno/Sephiroth, maybe. And we have Draven to thank for that.

Never mind, this match is going to be boring as anything. We're not thanking Draven for anything.
#184 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 8:39:00 PM | message detail
Since Leon did not do a trend chart for Chester/Caim/Dancin', I will do it instead.

Time | Chester | Caim | Dancin' | Votes
0:05 | 23.42% | 37.03% | 39.56% | 316
1:00 | 20.42% | 50.60% | 28.98% | 2688
2:00 | 20.86% | 54.79% | 24.35% | 2004
3:00 | 20.23% | 57.44% | 22.33% | 1760
4:00 | 18.79% | 56.49% | 24.72% | 1517
5:00 | 20.58% | 54.70% | 24.72% | 1404
6:00 | 20.16% | 54.27% | 25.56% | 1240
7:00 | 20.14% | 56.85% | 23.02% | 1008
8:00 | 20.77% | 56.53% | 22.70% | 987
9:00 | 18.94% | 55.92% | 25.14% | 903
10:00 | 19.06% | 56.41% | 24.53% | 897
11:00 | 20.92% | 54.67% | 24.41% | 889
12:00 | 18.24% | 57.81% | 23.96% | 839

Look at those horrible hourly vote totals.

Caim starts off really bad in the beginning, but does an FF7 impression here by rising for the entire match. Caim does better in the second half. Dancin' is the exact opposite, as it started off with an extremely strong board vote and had a lead on Caim for the first 5 minutes before Caim stormed ahead easily. Dancin' performs best in the first hour. Oddly enough, Chester's best hour is not the first hour of the match. Chester's best hour is near the end of the match, but he never wins a single hour over Dancin'.
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#185 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:40:36 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Incidentally, as it turns out Luster is the secret mastermind behind the Draven rally. Don't tell anyone!


I already knew that though, trying to deny those votes were stuffed!
#186 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/19/2013 8:40:40 PM | message detail
You know, I was going to no-pick everyone this match this because of DravenFEAR...
...But I decided I didn't want to potentially profit from a Draven victory. That would be terrible.
X > Ryu > Draven like everyone else here we goooo
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#187 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/19/2013 8:41:00 PM | message detail
Luster

We don't need to be completely in the blind regarding the strength of fictional characters, but we also don't need to see the strongest, biggest guys until we get an actual contest. That's why I'm suggest a happy medium in Vegeta.

Vegeta vs. Dante (or someone thereabouts). If Vegeta wins or makes it close, we at least know that several fictional characters will have respectable strength in a Character Battle. If he gets creamed, well then, I guess SBAllen wins. Is there any way we can get the ball rolling on this as you did with the bonus fodder match? I'll help if needed.
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#188 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 8:42:01 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
You know, I was going to no-pick everyone this match this because of DravenFEAR...
...But I decided I didn't want to potentially profit from a Draven victory. That would be terrible.
X > Ryu > Draven like everyone else here we goooo


Good man! No guts, no glory! That's the way to win a contest!
#189 | spooky96 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:44:05 PM | message detail
I'm a coward. I'm only picking X for this match, nothing for 2nd and 3rd. If X wins good, but at least I won't get out of the league if the entire order is wrong.
#190 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:44:22 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Never mind, this match is going to be boring as anything. We're not thanking Draven for anything.


Even if it's "interesting," I refuse to thank Draven. If anything, that would make me even less thankful!
#191 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/19/2013 8:46:50 PM | message detail
yoblazer, here's what I did to get the bonus match set up:

1. Create a topic allowing for other users to suggest ideas for bonus matches. Any user can vouch for any of the suggestions posted in the topic. After about 1 or 2 days, the suggestions were copied over to Notepad and tallied up. I took the ten most popular suggestions based on the number of nominations. If there were multiple suggestions with just 1 nomination, I eliminated the ones I thought would get the least number of votes in a voting topic.

2. Create a poll topic with the 10 most popular suggestions. The poll will last for about 1 day and then the 5 least popular options will be eliminated.

3. Create a final voting topic using the 5 most popular suggestions. If any suggestions use characters that are not in the contest, someone can use the topic to submit a profile picture, quote, and description for those characters.
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#192 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:48:26 PM | message detail
Just going to stick with X > Ryu > Draven and hope that if Draven pulls anything the rest of the leaderboard falls with me.
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#193 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:48:33 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
...But I decided I didn't want to potentially profit from a Draven victory. That would be terrible.
X > Ryu > Draven like everyone else here we goooo


That's the spirit! If we go down, we all go down together!
#194 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/19/2013 8:48:48 PM | message detail
megaman x probably gonna win comfortably.. i hope one of the other two wins..
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#195 | spooky96 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:50:27 PM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
...But I decided I didn't want to potentially profit from a Draven victory. That would be terrible.
X > Ryu > Draven like everyone else here we goooo


That's the spirit! If we go down, we all go down together!


I love this ideology. I've been like this since 6th grade.

"If its not me, then its not you either."
#196 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/19/2013 8:51:24 PM | message detail
I so badly want to put Ryu in first. But I don't dare.
#197 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:51:45 PM | message detail
God, help X and Ryu smite the evil one next match. Also, if you can, make sure you put Ryu at a distant second early in the match.
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Drop it to the floor...
#198 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/19/2013 8:54:07 PM | message detail
If Draven wins this then he wins the contest
#199 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:55:36 PM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
If Draven wins this then he wins the contest

I don't buy this. The Link match will be something else entirely, and it's not just because it's Link. If Draven just buries MMX/Ryu, then sure, maybe, but if he squeaks by then it isn't necessarily enough.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#200 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/19/2013 8:56:07 PM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
If Draven wins this then he wins the contest


There's a Link in the way.

Don't get me wrong I'd be f***ing stoked if Link lost to someone who could then be taken down via backlash and then Snake
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