Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1118

#101 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 5:19:02 PM | message detail
That X pic is making me worried about Ryu upsetting.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#102 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 5:21:16 PM | message detail | (edited)
And as the minorest aside we have no conclusive idea if Toon Link hurts Link because the first time he's exclusively had it in ten years was today. You may want to argue for Raiden doing better than he should have but it may just turn out Link is weaker. I thought the WW pic looked fantastic, for my money.

Snake's sprite is a world of difference. We see what happens with it constantly.
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#103 | ZFS | Posted 8/19/2013 5:22:59 PM | message detail
I don't think Wind Waker pics are as big of a deal as they used to be. There used to be a huge backlash to that art style, but it's not really that way anymore. It probably doesn't hurt him that much, if any.
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#104 | Sorozone | Posted 8/19/2013 5:23:06 PM | message detail
Well yeah, I was just saying that there are cases where pic factor hurts. I guess a better one would have been Amano art or something, instead of Toon Link.

But even with that, I'm not that big of a believer in pic factor, unless it's explicitly shown year, after year for certain characters.
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#105 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/19/2013 5:23:44 PM | message detail
Wind Waker's much less hated today than it was ten years ago when tons of people were pissed off at getting a "kiddie Link." Toon Link pics won't hurt Link nearly as bad, if at all, as they hurt him in 2003 (if you think they hurt him, which again, tough to say since all he faced was Nintendo and steroids Square).

Also, if Batman ever got into a contest, I'll try to sabotage him by submitting Lego Batman pics every round.
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#106 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 5:24:46 PM | message detail
X's pic doesn't even look like him. If it weren't labeled 'Mega Man X', I wouldn't know it was him just by looking at it.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#107 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2013 5:25:07 PM | message detail
Yeah, Toon Link is nothing like Snake's sprite. He's still perfectly recognizable as Link; there aren't that many people who are going to vote the other way just because they don't like his picture.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#108 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2013 5:27:13 PM | message detail
Aeris needs......13.63 votes per update.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#109 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 5:30:24 PM | message detail
Aeris needs to actually turn this around before we start doing things like rattling off updates. She may not be able to stop Shepard gaining at all for the rest of the match.
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#110 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2013 5:31:36 PM | message detail
I think Aeris is just about finished. The only thing that can save her is a rally, and I don't think FFVII has produced a single one of those in 11 years of contest history.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#111 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/19/2013 5:33:30 PM | message detail | (edited)
I'll start doing votes/update when Aeris gets three cuts of 10 votes or more in a row.

Otherwise they're a waste of time, because she isn't going to get anywhere close.
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*shrug*
#112 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2013 5:33:13 PM | message detail
Fact/Fiction: Aeris would be winning if her name was spelled "Aeris" instead of "Aerith."
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#113 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/19/2013 5:33:53 PM | message detail
Fiction.
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*shrug*
#114 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/19/2013 5:34:18 PM | message detail
What?

Fiction
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~Zen
#115 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 5:43:26 PM | message detail
You'll all see

make the bonus poll Shepard v Aeris Bacon
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#116 | Korayashi | Posted 8/19/2013 5:43:30 PM | message detail
So, is it just me or are votals doing better? This match seems like it will break 30k with ease and soon.
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#117 | Korayashi | Posted 8/19/2013 5:44:05 PM | message detail
Soon being immediately after I posted.
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Nominate Spring Breeze Dancin' from Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon for Character Battle IX!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJrnlFW4IMc
#118 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 5:48:33 PM | message detail
Vote totals are better, having a couple of strong characters with very different fanbases helps

We are currently heading for second place in day vote totals, only behind the rallied Raiden/Waluigi/Alan
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Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#119 | anondum | Posted 8/19/2013 5:51:57 PM | message detail
this draven match is lucky to be a night one. europe hates mega man and loves lol
#120 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/19/2013 6:19:52 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Vote totals are better, having a couple of strong characters with very different fanbases helps

We are currently heading for second place in day vote totals, only behind the rallied Raiden/Waluigi/Alan


Stronger characters in general will make for higher vote totals.
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#121 | Xuxon | Posted 8/19/2013 6:26:24 PM | message detail
Aeris is coming back, at this rate she'll take the lead in 10 hours.
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#122 | im317 | Posted 8/19/2013 6:27:07 PM | message detail
Ryu>X based on pic factor. whose with me?
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#123 | Sorozone | Posted 8/19/2013 6:30:05 PM | message detail
Well, it's back under 600.
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#124 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/19/2013 6:30:39 PM | message detail
SNV kicking in and Aeris stalling and cutting now. Shepard's lead is far too big now, though. Aeris needs 20 votes per update.
#125 | JJH777 | Posted 8/19/2013 6:32:33 PM | message detail
Too bad this isn't a 24 hour match.
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#126 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 6:36:01 PM | message detail
When does that monstrous FFVII SNV start anyway
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#127 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 6:40:16 PM | message detail | (edited)
Also lol at that pic not looking like X

Have you ever actually played the games? That's X after you get all the armor pieces in pretty much any game. For the most part we use unarmored MMX in match pics so it could be foreign to someone who only knows him as "the other Mega Man"/"that guy from the contests" but yeah any fan of the games should immediately recognize that as X
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#128 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 6:45:40 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Also lol at that pic not looking like X

Have you ever actually played the games? That's X after you get all the armor pieces in pretty much any game. For the most part we use unarmored MMX in match pics so it could be foreign to someone who only knows him as "the other Mega Man"/"that guy from the contests" but yeah any fan of the games should immediately recognize that as X


I don't think it's so much a problem of recognizability as it is that people don't like that look as much. Then again, I could say the same thing for Old Snake and it doesn't seem to hurt Snake in matches.

But can we really take the risk? For now on we only use glorious MGS1 polygons who's with me
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#129 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 6:47:30 PM | message detail
I absolutely could see people disliking the look, and I think Ryu has pic advantage, but KP said "I wouldn't know it was him just by looking at it" and I'm like "really," Like no one who's actually played the games should have a problem recognizing that as MMX. People who are voting MMX as a Mega Man proxy might bail, but actual MMX fans shouldn't.
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#130 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 6:48:27 PM | message detail
I've only played MMX, and I basically vote him as a proxy Mega Man!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#131 | superange128 | Posted 8/19/2013 6:48:29 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I . People who are voting MMX as a Mega Man proxy might bail, b


which is why I think he'll do worse than usual in the match, possibly losing
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#132 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 6:51:40 PM | message detail | (edited)
btw, I would hate it if it happened, but I would also die laughing if Ryu upset X but it didn't matter because Draven caught fire with another rally and came in first

edit: which would also give the X > Ryu expert pickers more points! aw yeah
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#133 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 6:50:22 PM | message detail
I actually think Ryu wins but not because of the pic. I think failed Draven rally runoff is going to favor him by a lot.

I think most MMX MM proxy voters would vote MMX as a Mega Man Proxy just because of his name but we'll see. Maybe Ryu wins by a lot.
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#134 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 6:54:34 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I actually think Ryu wins but not because of the pic. I think failed Draven rally runoff is going to favor him by a lot.

I think most MMX MM proxy voters would vote MMX as a Mega Man Proxy just because of his name but we'll see. Maybe Ryu wins by a lot.


Rally? Pshaw! You know it's all about dem pocket stuffers, gonna swing 100k with those just like you thought they would.
#135 | Lopen | Posted 8/19/2013 6:57:06 PM | message detail
Oh believe me there's going to be a lot of stuffing too but a lot of it is rallying. Did my bogus math and guesstimated about half of Draven last round was stuffing.

Also I never said 100k you're the one who said such foolishness!
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#136 | pjbasis | Posted 8/19/2013 7:00:01 PM | message detail
I might just bank this one.

First is up in the air, the pic and time is making me rethink it, and Draven is a wild card.
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#137 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 7:01:44 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Oh believe me there's going to be a lot of stuffing too but a lot of it is rallying. Did my bogus math and guesstimated about half of Draven last round was stuffing.

Also I never said 100k you're the one who said such foolishness!


Not even I believe that, it's just that the stuffing thing is a lot of fun to joke about. We'll get conclusive evidence about that in less than two hours either way! If Draven gets ahead and counterspikes every time he's threatened, we can say it was stuffing alright.
#138 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 7:02:52 PM | message detail
It looks like we mighta been able to see a real nailbiter with this in a 24 hour match. I still think 1v1 24 hours are the way to go if you make an exciting enough bracket. Though given Ballin's track record maybe we should just stick to the 12 hour stuff.
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#139 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:04:44 PM | message detail
My god I was so sure about X>Ryu but all those "Ryu will leach from Draven rally" theories and now this damn picture
I know that if I change my pick and X wins I will cry for hours so i'll leave it like this
But totally believing in Ryu
#140 | Sorozone | Posted 8/19/2013 7:13:17 PM | message detail
As much as I want to believe in Ryu, it's hard for me to. Even though I'd die with glee if he does. He has things going for him over X, but X looked so much more impressive round 1.

Granted I would take McShooty over Welkin, and any Tales boost was promptly deflated(a bit, if not all the way) thanks to Kratos. Though, I'm still a firm believer that Jigglypuff just doesn't have any strength.

Maybe I just don't want to get my hopes to high, since I have Ryu advancing.
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#141 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 7:15:02 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
As much as I want to believe in Ryu, it's hard for me to. Even though I'd die with glee if he does. He has things going for him over X, but X looked so much more impressive round 1.

Granted I would take McShooty over Welkin, and any Tales boost was promptly deflated(a bit, if not all the way) thanks to Kratos. Though, I'm still a firm believer that Jigglypuff just doesn't have any strength.

Maybe I just don't want to get my hopes to high, since I have Ryu advancing.


X should still be favored... but X losing to Jigglypuff in Britain can't be discounted <_<
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#142 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 7:23:13 PM | message detail
Oh, right, and Yuri has reasons to look better relative to last time that ToS doesn't necessarily have. Not that Ryu's performance was good or anything, but yeah.
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#143 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2013 7:33:05 PM | message detail
all I want to say is damn tomorrow's match. I should not be this nervous about a damn weakling.
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#144 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:37:02 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
all I want to say is damn tomorrow's match. I should not be this nervous about a damn weakling.


I'm telling you, Kanz is just trying to get you to bail on Draven in 3rd, then no rally will happen and he'll gain on everyone in expert
sogood.gif
#145 | ZFS | Posted 8/19/2013 7:40:26 PM | message detail
Shame Aerith is going to lose here!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#146 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/19/2013 7:42:03 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
MarioSuperstar posted...
all I want to say is damn tomorrow's match. I should not be this nervous about a damn weakling.


I'm telling you, Kanz is just trying to get you to bail on Draven in 3rd, then no rally will happen and he'll gain on everyone in expert
sogood.gif


Vouching for the fact that I have Draven on third for Expert. I believe in him, but if I'm tanking my bracket for him, I'm going all the way!
#147 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:43:18 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Vouching for the fact that I have Draven on third for Expert. I believe in him, but if I'm tanking my bracket for him, I'm going all the way!


HE LIES
#148 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2013 7:45:47 PM | message detail
Are there any prepared draven rallies? ...

.. X could very well be in last for hours upon hours.
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#149 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/19/2013 7:47:16 PM | message detail
If X is in last for any sustained period of time, he's straight up losing the match. Mega Man's most powerful time is the first three hours. Always has been.
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#150 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:48:40 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
If X is in last for any sustained period of time, he's straight up losing the match. Mega Man's most powerful time is the first three hours. Always has been.


you were supposed to say X will be in last in the moment that matters the most: at the end, when Ryu passes him on the last update ;)