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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1118
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Make your move, Draven. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- The Gamer In Me His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks |
Shepard/Aeris: now featuring 100% more Mario/Snake/Cloud/Samus discussion. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
2008.
Hammered down by SFF from Link, hurt even further by the presence of a
strongly Ninty-aligned near elite in X, Mario still came out and won
when it mattered by edging out Zack. You just can't understate how much
of a statement that was, considering Mario had every reason to flop and
be edged out by black-haired Cloud and didn't. Barely edging out Zack is supposed to be impressive? Even if you don't consider the Kefka match, he still only got 38% on Mega Man in 2010. And 30% on Link, twice, in 2008. And by the way, Zack only increased from 30% to 34% on Link after the Triple SFF kicked in. Obviously the impact on Mario is bigger but that match is not impressive for Mario at all. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Aeris
has kept up with Shephard for the last 30 minutes. The uphill battle
for her is quite large, though. Her chances of comeback still seem very
small to me. Is Mario vs. Mega Man 2010 non-SFF, though? If not, he would have likely beaten Cloud in 2010. If SFF was there, then I figure Cloud wins with 51% or so. I have a hard time thinking Mario was that strong, though, as he only got 63% on Big Boss. 2013 is different of course.... it seems FF7 depends on high vote totals to win. This year I say Mega Man is as strong as ever, with his Smash announcement. None of the Mega Man characters disappointed last round, including Proto Man. Mega Man's got to be comfortably above Crono and Sonic now. I wonder if he could take on Samus or Sephiroth? |
haha, got the last post in the last topic! |
kinsho: Given the context of the discussion, I thought it was pretty clear I was implying that Mario can bridge the difference between Cloud and Samus and actually beat him. I guess it wasn't so clear. What doesn't make sense? That Mario > Samus? From what I understood, you were saying that Mario being able to beat Samus by more than Cloud would beat her somehow means something for a Cloud/Mario match. Did you mean something else? Because if you meant something else then it definitely was not clear. KH: ...are you implying that was a good performance from Mario? The levels of Mario doing so poorly to the extent that he actually almost dropped that match are phenomenal. Zack is not that strong (LOST TO KEFKA). Zack *was* strong though. He put up 30% on Link twice in neutral set-ups. And Link wasn't anti-voted back then. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
From last topic:
You literally cannot get a worse setup for Mario than what he had in R4 2008, unless you put in Samus in the poll (which happened next round, hey-o!). Strong entrant that he cannot entirely SFF into oblivion? Square aligned third party riding a bandwagon? Link in the poll to Hylian Hammer everything down? It's a wonder he didn't lose, but he clutched up. Zack was strong in 2008. At the least, he was ideally suited to the format, which I don't think anyone will deny. |
red sox kinsho, what you're saying is that you think Mario is worth more than 54% on Samus indirectly, right? Hmm...now that I've given it more thought, probably not as much as 54%. More like 52-53%. Enough to beat Cloud today if those two went head-to-head. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Draven
can't win for long. Even if he wins this match and looks good doing it,
anti-Draven rallies will pop up all over the place. He's neither
recognizable nor funny; it would be easy to bury him with a rally if
anyone chose to do so. --- Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery. |
nkansas13 posted... Draven can't win for long. Even if he wins this match and looks good doing it, anti-Draven rallies will pop up all over the place. He's neither recognizable nor funny; it would be easy to bury him with a rally if anyone chose to do so. I don't think he'll win this round, but.......what |
ngirl: You'd take Sonic > Mega Man even with the SSB4 announcement? I've long held to the theory that at our upper echelons of strength, where just about everyone is an icon, the specific matchup could change a lot of the dynamics of a battle. It's true at lower levels too, but not as prominent or noticeable. Thus, I would have no problems believing that, for example, head-to-head we get Samus>Snake>Mario>Samus, etc. And those can hold true no matter which NNer (other than Link) are thrown in. These variations can all come up just depending on the matchup. |
So
who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master
Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard
and Ezio. I really wish Non VG chareacters were allowed in. Batman being in thos Contest would be the greatest thing ever. He would crush all the fodders and put up good % against the N9 even beating crap like Sonic and Sephiroth. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
red sox 777 posted... 2008. Hammered down by SFF from Link, hurt even further by the presence of a strongly Ninty-aligned near elite in X, Mario still came out and won when it mattered by edging out Zack. You just can't understate how much of a statement that was, considering Mario had every reason to flop and be edged out by black-haired Cloud and didn't. http://thengamer.com/xstats/?name1=Mario&year1=2010c&name2=Mega Man&year2=2005c This is a 'clean' Megaman vs. a clean Mario. If you assume 2010 MM was equivalent to 2005 (not a crazy thing, MM didn't look bad in 2k5 and neither did he in 2010), then Mario has...very little SFF on Megaman, oddly enough. This is something worth discussing, actually. What do we think happened when they met? |
nkansas13 posted... Draven can't win for long. Even if he wins this match and looks good doing it, anti-Draven rallies will pop up all over the place. He's neither recognizable nor funny; it would be easy to bury him with a rally if anyone chose to do so. I don't think you understand how this whole 'bandwagon' thing works. If Draven wins, he's giving Link a scare, period. This is not up for debate. The question is if he has it in him to come out on top in Round 2. |
The_Djoker posted... So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. Ezio is absolutely not in the discussion. The three strongest western characters are Shep, Subs, and Kratos. |
TheOneAboveAll posted... ngirl: You'd take Sonic > Mega Man even with the SSB4 announcement? I would and I'm reasonably convince that 1v1 my list holds up, but I'll also attest to consistently underrating MM and Crono because "lol Europe". I should probably pick up CTDS at some point... --- *shrug* |
wait a minute I know why Kanz is hyping up Draven he's trying to scare us into picking him in expert and causing us to lose points! you're pretty good, almost got me! |
The_Djoker posted... So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. Shepard seems to be the strongest western character. You're going too far calling Chief fodder though, fodder does not get remotely close to 46% on Yuna. And I've long said Batman would beat Link, especially after the Nolan films which have made him more of a monster icon than ever. I think he'd beat the current weakened version of Link and make it look easy. Vader also would likely be in the upper echelons of the NN. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
TheOneAboveAll posted... ngirl: You'd take Sonic > Mega Man even with the SSB4 announcement? Depends how good MM is in Smash bros. Sonic was utter garbage in Brawl and as we've seen in this contest. Brawl has done jack **** for any characters apart from get them enough nominations just to enter the damn thing. IF you're a genuinely popular character in smash then you can do ok with no games(Marth) but if you're crap even with decent games(Ike) prepare to flop --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
But
do you remember the SSBB hype levels we were at? Does anyone really
care about SSB4 beyond "yeah, it'll be cool when it gets here." The fact
that the Wii U has been such a failure has really hurt the level of
hype for SSB4 and everything related to it. Unitl SSB4 and ZeldaU hit, I have a tough time thinking anyone is going to give two s***s. --- *shrug* |
The_Djoker posted... IF you're a genuinely popular character in smash then you can do ok with no games(Marth) but if you're crap even with decent games(Ike) prepare to flop wait a minute .....what |
The_Djoker posted... TheOneAboveAll posted...ngirl: You'd take Sonic > Mega Man even with the SSB4 announcement? Funny, because Ike performed exactly at his 2010 level while Marth bombed hard from what he was expected (and he was lower than Ike too). Even if you assume both are constant, Ike is still the top dog. |
Draven looked absolutely awful. Even with a massive rally he didn't won by more than 3,000 votes against Jak. --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
KanzarisKelshen posted... The_Djoker posted...So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. Even after Kratos completely flopped in round 1? I can't help but take Ezio to smash the two characters Kratos had in round 1 and do better... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Draven is going to embarrass himself. This talk of him giving Link a scare is nonsense. Even if he by some miracle gets past MMX/Ryu, it would only be because MMX and Ryu aren't too far apart in strength and would be LFFing each other. But next round he'd have to face Link/Shepard. Link and Shepard are obviously not close in strength. Link would stomp. Doesn't matter anyway, I expect Draven to flop hard. MMX and Ryu are too well known for even rallied LoL fans to overwhelmingly vote Draven. And I'm skeptical any large rally will occur again anyway. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KanzarisKelshen posted... The_Djoker posted...So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. I think had Altair been in the sequels and AC wasn't whored out...he could have been the strongest easily. Ezio is a great character but Revelations was too much. As for MC...yeah I was kidding. But He would lose to Sub zero/Shepard quite comfortably. Kratos? I think he's gone down too, he's not the same Kratos from 2008. And no Batman wouldn't Link but he wouldn't have to. The guy would certainly beat most if not all non N9's and possibly beat a few N9's too. I'd take him in 1v1 poll vs Sephiroth now. His games also have propelled him to unbelievable heights. Unlike Spiderman/superman....he has the games to back him up too, it's not jutcomic book fame, though evne on that alone he would still win. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
The Real Truth posted... Draven looked absolutely awful. Even with a massive rally he didn't won by more than 3,000 votes against Jak. You're forgetting that he did that while starting from a large hole. He pushed himself up by ten thousand votes to perform the biggest multiway swing ever, and one of THE biggest swings ever since Alucard/Sora. You're trying to make Draven look bad, but there's nothing you can say that can't be matched with a counterpoint. Wait and see, man. Let the match play out. |
This
is a 'clean' Megaman vs. a clean Mario. If you assume 2010 MM was
equivalent to 2005 (not a crazy thing, MM didn't look bad in 2k5 and
neither did he in 2010), then Mario has...very little SFF on Megaman,
oddly enough. This is something worth discussing, actually. What do we
think happened when they met? I wouldn't think 2010 MM = 2005 MM. He looked much worse in between, after all, and now his most impressive 2010 matches against Zack and Ryu H don't look as impressive anymore. Now, 2k5 Mario gets 55% on 2k5 MM indirectly. So 58% is certainly a plausible direct outcome in 2005, but that doesn't mean both of them are still at their 2005 strengths. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Fayt_Esteed posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...The_Djoker posted...So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. I wouldn't. Ezio has never passed the eye test. Until he proves himself in a tough match, he deserves no respect over a proven midcarder like Kratos. |
Batman vs. Goku who wins? --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
KanzarisKelshen posted... The_Djoker posted...TheOneAboveAll posted...ngirl: You'd take Sonic > Mega Man even with the SSB4 announcement? Well now yes I was talking before. Brawl came out what? 5 years ago. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
red sox 777 posted... This is a 'clean' Megaman vs. a clean Mario. If you assume 2010 MM was equivalent to 2005 (not a crazy thing, MM didn't look bad in 2k5 and neither did he in 2010), then Mario has...very little SFF on Megaman, oddly enough. This is something worth discussing, actually. What do we think happened when they met? Crono looked beyond terrible from 2006 to 2008 though, and he still put up an excellent fight against a guy who (nonlinearly, admittedly) went on to challenge Sephiroth in 2010. If you extend the benefit of doubt to Crono, you just gotta do the same with Megaman. |
The_Djoker posted... His games also have propelled him to unbelievable heights. Unlike Spiderman/superman....he has the games to back him up too, it's not jutcomic book fame, though evne on that alone he would still win. Bahaha. Batman in 2013 is where he is because of the Nolan trilogy. To suggest that isn't where all of his strength comes from right now is ridiculous, even on this site and even though the Arkham games are good. They're not in the same league of relevance. --- *shrug* |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...The_Djoker posted...So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. Maybe, but Kratos looked like crap - by Recette's hand. He couldn't even double RECETTE, who had no real reason to be strong, and underperformed by like 10%. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
I
don't think Goku would be that strong. I think Vegeta would be the
strongest DBZ character, but still lose to characters like Homer and Han
Solo. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
Crono
looked beyond terrible from 2006 to 2008 though, and he still put up an
excellent fight against a guy who (nonlinearly, admittedly) went on to
challenge Sephiroth in 2010. If you extend the benefit of doubt to
Crono, you just gotta do the same with Megaman. No one is arguing that Crono is now as strong as his 2005 self, not even me. If I thought that, I'd take him over Mario outright, and I wouldn't even need any bias to help the decision! --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
The Real Truth posted... Batman vs. Goku who wins? Batman. Goku would be a midcarder though. Like i've said...I respect this is a games site but Batman has the games, Goku doesn't. So Goku wouldn't beat batman or really come close. Maybe 35% at most. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
Fayt_Esteed posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Fayt_Esteed posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...The_Djoker posted...So who's the strongest Western character now on GFaqs? We all know Master Chief is fodder now. It's between 3 characters surely? Sub Zero, Shepard and Ezio. http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100910053906/board8/images/f/f0/Poll3761.png This was what Kratos did before losing by only 55% against Charizard. Dude has always done poorly against fodder, just like Sora. |
But what about Crono VS Goku? >_< I would go with Crono... --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
I'd
take the whole N9 over Goku pretty easily. All the near-elites too.
And a bunch of midcarders. Batman would steamroll him. And now that Link has weakened so much, I greatly greatly fear for him against Batman. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
The Real Truth posted... Batman vs. Goku who wins? Who would win...? Batman breaks 80% there. It would be a tripling at the very least. The glory days of DBZ are ancient history, they would not be strong anymore. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I think Kanzaris is heavily defending Draven since he's gonna be one of the ralliers --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
I
was actually just thinking of the DBZ crew and how they would do. I'd
wager that the non-game fictional characters could enjoy a universal
"starting boost" in an inaugural Fictional Character Battle because
they'd all represent exciting new blood on an old site. Doesn't this round also need a bonus 12-hour match a la Chester/Kaim/Dancin' before we move into the 24 hour matches? If so, it would be the perfect time to throw a non-game character in a test match against an established game entrant. For some reason, the match that's been coming to mind is Dante vs. Vegeta, and I can't help but envision Vegeta stomping the ever-loving hell out of him. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
There's
500 for the first time. 40 minutes until the traditional end of the
ASV, though today it's probably so weakened that we might not observe
anything. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Batman
will not be as strong as people think he is here at least. GameFAQs
doesn't care about anything post 2006 and Dark Knight was 2008. Sucks
for Batman. |
creativename posted... The Real Truth posted...Batman vs. Goku who wins? That's like saying since the glory days of Sonic are ancient history he won't be noble 9 tier which definitely isn't the case --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
nintendogirl1 posted... The_Djoker posted...His games also have propelled him to unbelievable heights. Unlike Spiderman/superman....he has the games to back him up too, it's not jutcomic book fame, though evne on that alone he would still win. If batman gets more strength from his movies and comic book icon status. Then surely he would be the strongest character to challenge link??? --- http://i.imgur.com/ooexO.gif |
Yuri_LowelI posted... nintendogirl1 posted...The_Djoker posted...His games also have propelled him to unbelievable heights. Unlike Spiderman/superman....he has the games to back him up too, it's not jutcomic book fame, though evne on that alone he would still win. Yes. Again, I think anyone that doesn't think Batman is the Link of the non-gaming characters on this site they're nuts. --- *shrug* |
The
DBZ guys would be very respectable if not outright beastly. I can see
Goku being bottom Noble 9 level, Vegeta being right there or contending
with the near-elites (like I said, it's hard to picture him dropping one
to Dante), and Trunks/Piccolo being worthy entrants. Does anyone really NOT side with Trunks against, say, Master Chief? --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
ChenKenichiFan posted... Doesn't this round also need a bonus 12-hour match a la Chester/Kaim/Dancin' before we move into the 24 hour matches? If so, it would be the perfect time to throw a non-game character in a test match against an established game entrant. In an earlier topic people suggested we put the three strongest losers of round 2 against each other. Now, I don't know exactly how you'd judge who the strongest losers actually were, but it would be an interesting match. It would probably involve characters like Ryu, Aeris, Crono/Pikachu and such. Other than that I'd like to see Dark Link vs. strong characters that have either lost in round 2, or the big snubs (Ken, Liquid Snake, Jecht and such). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
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