GameFAQs Contests

Karma Hunter posted...

I think I understand what you're driving at after a second look, but it's not entirely apt. L-Block was weak enough to easily lose to Kirby but because of its loyal bloc of voters and getting a lot of steam/rallies, it was eventually able to win the contest over Link. So if Draven can get another rally and retain his the loyalty of his voters (and his first match was legit... which is debatable), then he has something of a shot.

Comparing Link/Luigi and Luigi/Zero is pretty unfair too. Link SFFed the bajeezus out of Luigi, and that makes him look much worse than he actually is. Putting it another way, back in 2005 Solid Snake went 50/50 with Bowser. He won and in the very next match put up 43% on Mario. Yet Bowser gets killed 71/29 in a direct match with Mario, as we saw just the year before.

Speaking of that performance I'd really like to see Snake/Mario again - I don't place much stock into the people that say Snake has no chance because the last time we saw them 1v1 he got 43% pre-Brawl announcement, pre-Brawl release, pre-MGS4, and pre-MGSV hype/trailers/etc. Snake should at the very least make that a heckuva match.

It's not like Mario hasn't received a lot since then either.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC

charmander6000 posted...

It's also very difficult for me to envision Cloud being our #5 character at best now. Maybe not #2, but suddenly being #5 would be a heckuva fall. Heck you may as well start arguing post-SSB4 Mega Man over him at that point if you think the decline's been that precipitous.

It's not much of a fall to go from 2 to 5, Snake and Samus are essentially equal in 2010 and Mario is probably not much stronger, if he even is.

Yeah, but Cloud used to be so dominant that it's still hard to imagine. He once 60/40d Samus. To go from Clinkeroth level to being #5 is just... weird. Then again, Sephiroth has fallen that far and harder, so who knows.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

I think I understand what you're driving at after a second look, but it's not entirely apt. L-Block was weak enough to easily lose to Kirby but because of its loyal bloc of voters and getting a lot of steam/rallies, it was eventually able to win the contest over Link. So if Draven can get another rally and retain his the loyalty of his voters (and his first match was legit... which is debatable), then he has something of a shot.

Comparing Link/Luigi and Luigi/Zero is pretty unfair too. Link SFFed the bajeezus out of Luigi, and that makes him look much worse than he actually is. Putting it another way, back in 2005 Solid Snake went 50/50 with Bowser. He won and in the very next match put up 43% on Mario. Yet Bowser gets killed 71/29 in a direct match with Mario, as we saw just the year before.

Speaking of that performance I'd really like to see Snake/Mario again - I don't place much stock into the people that say Snake has no chance because the last time we saw them 1v1 he got 43% pre-Brawl announcement, pre-Brawl release, pre-MGS4, and pre-MGSV hype/trailers/etc. Snake should at the very least make that a heckuva match.

It's not like Mario hasn't received a lot since then either.

Mario always has releases. He's not the kind of character that boosts from games (unless they're release on like the day of the match, hi Cloud). I mean, it's freakin' MARIO. I'd be very surprised if he was much stronger than his Super Mario boosted 2005 self.
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

Yeah, but Cloud used to be so dominant that it's still hard to imagine. He once 60/40d Samus. To go from Clinkeroth level to being #5 is just... weird. Then again, Sephiroth has fallen that far and harder, so who knows.

if you just assume Mario=Samus (which I personally doubt), Cloud falling 3 points relative to BL is enough to put him at #5 (I think....right?)

It's still a very significant drop for Cloud to go to #5. He got 52% on Snake in a 24 hour match. He would have very likely broken 54%+ on Samus in a 24 hour match as a conservative estimate. If Mario is weaker indirectly we're talking a 55-56% victory over him as recently as 2010 (though if he's stronger indirectly, much easier to swallow).
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I'd feel good siding with Mario over Snake in a direct match, but it'd probably be a close match. I think Mario/Cloud is basically 50/50.

Mario > Cloud > Snake > Samus seems about like how I'd expect these guys to fall.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

what is this Mario hype and where is it coming from
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Mario for second has become the board favourite for whatever reason.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith

Mario's been hidden for years, most of the faith in him is based on his 2005 pedigree. It could be valid, or it could not - but he's going to be hidden again this year so AUGH
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Karma Hunter posted...

I think I understand what you're driving at after a second look, but it's not entirely apt. L-Block was weak enough to easily lose to Kirby but because of its loyal bloc of voters and getting a lot of steam/rallies, it was eventually able to win the contest over Link. So if Draven can get another rally and retain his the loyalty of his voters (and his first match was legit... which is debatable), then he has something of a shot.

Comparing Link/Luigi and Luigi/Zero is pretty unfair too. Link SFFed the bajeezus out of Luigi, and that makes him look much worse than he actually is. Putting it another way, back in 2005 Solid Snake went 50/50 with Bowser. He won and in the very next match put up 43% on Mario. Yet Bowser gets killed 71/29 in a direct match with Mario, as we saw just the year before.

Speaking of that performance I'd really like to see Snake/Mario again - I don't place much stock into the people that say Snake has no chance because the last time we saw them 1v1 he got 43% pre-Brawl announcement, pre-Brawl release, pre-MGS4, and pre-MGSV hype/trailers/etc. Snake should at the very least make that a heckuva match.

The point that I tried to make is that there is a big difference in strength between characters,which means that even when a certain character looks great against weaker oppontets,he can get crashed against a stronger one
Bayonetta crashed her poll,but she will get owned against Alucard and Solid Snake
And what happened with L Block will not happen with Draven...

The best thing that will come out of the Draven rally is half of those Euro rallied votes going Ryu, and Ryu ends up with the win. Oh yeah!
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif

Snake would probably be a more popular choice with people if they didn't think Snake's Brawl boost would ruin him in any big Nintendo match. That's likely the only thing stopping people from going with him for #2, really, because board 8 likes Snake more than any other Noble Niner.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

I find the idea of Link using SFF to go from 52% to 65% on Mario close to absurd. Especially when Link has shown less SFF power nowadays than he used to have (remember 88% on Ganondorf and 81% on Yoshi in 2004, in 1v1?) against everyone else. Link goes from 81% on Yoshi to 71% on Luigi, and we're supposed to believe that his SFF powers against Mario increased by close to 10 points?
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Karma Hunter posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

I think I understand what you're driving at after a second look, but it's not entirely apt. L-Block was weak enough to easily lose to Kirby but because of its loyal bloc of voters and getting a lot of steam/rallies, it was eventually able to win the contest over Link. So if Draven can get another rally and retain his the loyalty of his voters (and his first match was legit... which is debatable), then he has something of a shot.

Comparing Link/Luigi and Luigi/Zero is pretty unfair too. Link SFFed the bajeezus out of Luigi, and that makes him look much worse than he actually is. Putting it another way, back in 2005 Solid Snake went 50/50 with Bowser. He won and in the very next match put up 43% on Mario. Yet Bowser gets killed 71/29 in a direct match with Mario, as we saw just the year before.

Speaking of that performance I'd really like to see Snake/Mario again - I don't place much stock into the people that say Snake has no chance because the last time we saw them 1v1 he got 43% pre-Brawl announcement, pre-Brawl release, pre-MGS4, and pre-MGSV hype/trailers/etc. Snake should at the very least make that a heckuva match.

It's not like Mario hasn't received a lot since then either.

Mario always has releases. He's not the kind of character that boosts from games (unless they're release on like the day of the match, hi Cloud). I mean, it's freakin' MARIO. I'd be very surprised if he was much stronger than his Super Mario boosted 2005 self.

I agree completely with your statement. I just find it weird that Snake would be able to catch up with Mario on his own games even though Mario himself has not only received plenty of new games since then, but his mainline platforming series pretty much got revitalized.

Super Mario Galaxy was the first Mario game released in a decade to be widely considered to be on par with the best in the series. That was followed by Super Mario Galaxy 2, which was received just as well if not better. Then you have all those New Super Mario Bros. games and Super Mario 3D Land. I'm not saying that all this boosts Mario through the roof like I may be implying, I'm just saying it's kinda strange that Snake would even be able to do that despite mainline Mario being a MUCH bigger deal now than in 2005.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC

Score-Brackets-% Right
76------1------------100.00
75------1------------100.00
74------12----------100.00
73------23----------100.00
72------48----------97.92
71------89----------100.00
70------108--------100.00
69------115--------100.00
68------112--------100.00
67------116--------100.00
66------148--------99.32
65------167--------100.00
64------226--------99.12
63------292--------100.00
62------421--------99.52
61------493--------99.59
60------575--------99.83
59------692--------99.13
58------839--------99.40
57------907--------98.57
56------939--------98.72
55------972--------96.30
54------890--------95.28
53------906--------95.36
52------792--------95.08
51------712--------94.80
50------587--------91.99
49------529--------88.85
48------492--------82.72
47------395--------83.04
46------371--------83.29
45------361--------77.29
44------271--------77.86
43------234--------71.79
42------223--------70.40
41------155--------63.23
40------165--------53.33
39------142--------68.31
38------102--------58.82
37------93----------53.76
36------83----------51.81
35------91----------41.76
34------62----------30.65
33------46----------32.61
32------32----------34.38
31------31----------54.84
30------34----------35.29
29------23----------26.09
28------26----------23.08
27------13----------38.46
26------13----------38.46
25------10----------10.00
24------5------------0.00
23------4------------0.00
22------9------------22.22
21------3------------0.00
20------4------------0.00
19------5------------40.00
18------2------------0.00
17------3------------0.00
16------1------------0.00
15------1------------0.00
14------1------------0.00
13------4------------0.00
12------0------------0.00
11------1------------0.00
10------13----------0.00
9--------1------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------0------------0.00
3--------6------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------1------------0.00

It's a Link match so sky high prediction percentages even in Round 2. Oddly enough, one person in the top 85 gets it wrong. They were good enough to only be 9 points off perfect after 81 rounds but somehow didn't have Link winning here. The next person to get it wrong is between 625th and 773rd place.

No one fell off the Top 49.
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Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32

yeah, I don't think I can put faith in someone I haven't seen do anything straight since 2005. especially since he got stomped by Sephiroth that year anyway.

I was afraid someone was going to bring up the Rivalry Rumble as a reason even though we don't talk about that one
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~

Damn, it's so hard to trust FFVII these days, Aerith and Zack have totally ruined my bracket. My confidence in Vincent > Sonic panning out has hit rock bottom too. Don't convince me, i will take Dracula > Barret.

FFVII to lose all debatable matches this contest.
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The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die.

I dunno, if anything this match has some what renewed some confidence in Vincent for me! I was expecting a better showing from Shepard than this.

I'm still taking Dracula over Barret though.
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charmander6000 posted...

Mario for second has become the board favourite for whatever reason.

There's no hard statistical reasoning for it, but it feels right. Cloud and Sephiroth have lost a step since their glory days. Mario has obliterated Samus in a face-to-face match before, and I think he'd do it all over again if they were to meet up again in a 1v1 setting. Granted, we have Solid Snake, but I don't think Snake has the strength to take on Mario. Part of his 2010 boost came from being in Brawl, but Mario would probably siphon away any Nintendo support he may get in a head-to-head matchup.

Like it or not, it makes sense for Mario to be #2. It's a shame his real strength hasn't been showing for the past several years thanks to Link.
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Drop it to the floor...

red sox 777 posted...

I find the idea of Link using SFF to go from 52% to 65% on Mario close to absurd. Especially when Link has shown less SFF power nowadays than he used to have (remember 88% on Ganondorf and 81% on Yoshi in 2004, in 1v1?) against everyone else. Link goes from 81% on Yoshi to 71% on Luigi, and we're supposed to believe that his SFF powers against Mario increased by close to 10 points?

I suppose you could just set Mario = Samus in the 2010 stats. How severe is the SFF then? 8% I think, argh.

As for the Noble Nine, I'd go with this order of strength:

Link
Snake
Cloud
Mario
Mega Man
Samus
Sephiroth
Sonic
Crono

Yeah I'm going with MM > Samus/Sephiroth and Snake > Cloud.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC

Janus5000 posted...

yeah, I don't think I can put faith in someone I haven't seen do anything straight since 2005. especially since he got stomped by Sephiroth that year anyway.

I was afraid someone was going to bring up the Rivalry Rumble as a reason even though we don't talk about that one

what's this, Rivalry Rumble?
Mario gonna LFF Link to death confirmed

Janus5000 posted...

yeah, I don't think I can put faith in someone I haven't seen do anything straight since 2005. especially since he got stomped by Sephiroth that year anyway.

I was afraid someone was going to bring up the Rivalry Rumble as a reason even though we don't talk about that one

If you're still talking stats from 2005, then just remember that Mario stomped the likes of Samus, Snake, and Crono on his way to the championship that year.
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Drop it to the floor...

I'm actually fairly scared of Vincent beating Sonic right now. If Vincent is still where I think he is (and that is closely but noticeably above Tifa), he proves the KOS-MOS match was a fluke much like Falco, and Sonic flops on his face - this is a multiway contest and SONIC TEAM HAS NOT LOOKED GOOD, REMIND YOU OF ANYTHING - that can easily happen.

Sonic's already been cleanly upset twice in multiways, by Auron and Kirby. Squall woulda done it too if SSBB hadn't saved Sonic's ass from the fire.
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Cloud has gotten weaker, sure, but he would have to had weakened a lot to lose to Mario. Mario has had much less reason than Snake to go up.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~

kinsho3 posted...

Janus5000 posted...

yeah, I don't think I can put faith in someone I haven't seen do anything straight since 2005. especially since he got stomped by Sephiroth that year anyway.

I was afraid someone was going to bring up the Rivalry Rumble as a reason even though we don't talk about that one

If you're still talking stats from 2005, then just remember that Mario stomped the likes of Samus, Snake, and Crono on his way to the championship that year.

He's not. He's saying that Mario hasn't done ANYTHING since 2005, and he's right.

It's also impossible for Mario to siphon off all of Snake's SSBB support, which is very bad for him. Snake's SSBB boost is arguably the single biggest boost any elite character has ever received in these contests. Any residual support he will have left will be yet another bite out of Mario's already too close for comfort lead.
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Janus5000 posted...

Cloud has gotten weaker, sure, but he would have to had weakened a lot to lose to Mario. Mario has had much less reason than Snake to go up.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1779
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3852
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Drop it to the floor...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario! Not to mention using a 12 hour match is deceptive in percentages considering how much Cloud was pasting her by the end of the poll.
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Karma Hunter posted...

He's not. He's saying that Mario hasn't done ANYTHING since 2005, and he's right.

He used Sephiroth smashing Mario that year as proof that Mario may not be strong.

It's also impossible for Mario to siphon off all of Snake's SSBB support, which is very bad for him. Snake's SSBB boost is arguably the single biggest boost any elite character has ever received in these contests.

It's impossible for the second strongest Nintendo character to siphon off any Nintendo support Snake might get? Really?
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Drop it to the floor...

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario!

and what might that be

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario! Not to mention using a 12 hour match is deceptive in percentages considering how much Cloud was pasting her by the end of the poll.

It's a 12-hour night match. Cloud would have likely lost percentage were it 24 hours.
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Drop it to the floor...

The amazing thing about Cloud is that he can afford to lose 7% against Samus and Mario since his glory and still beat them.

Unless you also think Cloud has dropped 3% since 2010, which I guess is possible. It's hard to gauge Cloud based on fodder matches.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~

1337gamerpr0 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario!

and what might that be

Metroid Prime 3: Corruption and Other M hype. Samus is the kind of character that can actually significantly increase from new releases because she doesn't have the kind of saturation that Mario does. See: her stratospheric boost from 2002 to 2k3/4.
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kinsho3 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario! Not to mention using a 12 hour match is deceptive in percentages considering how much Cloud was pasting her by the end of the poll.

It's a 12-hour night match. Cloud would have likely lost percentage were it 24 hours.

Not again... This is one of the biggest myths of the stats topic. Cloud would have beaten Samus with at least 55% if that had been a 24 hour match.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....

Janus5000 posted...

The amazing thing about Cloud is that he can afford to lose 7% against Samus and Mario since his glory and still beat them.

Unless you also think Cloud has dropped 3% since 2010, which I guess is possible. It's hard to gauge Cloud based on fodder matches.

1% drop for every year think about it
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kinsho3 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario! Not to mention using a 12 hour match is deceptive in percentages considering how much Cloud was pasting her by the end of the poll.

It's a 12-hour night match. Cloud would have likely lost percentage were it 24 hours.

You are displaying a shocking ignorance to trends if you think this is remotely justifiable. This is not how FF7 works.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2013 6:03:56 PM | #432

See: her stratospheric boost from 2002 to 2k3/4.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/?name1=Samus&year1=2002c&name2=Samus&year2=2004c
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Denzokuken posted...

kinsho3 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario! Not to mention using a 12 hour match is deceptive in percentages considering how much Cloud was pasting her by the end of the poll.

It's a 12-hour night match. Cloud would have likely lost percentage were it 24 hours.

Not again... This is one of the biggest myths of the stats topic. Cloud would have beaten Samus with at least 55% if that had been a 24 hour match.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3856&num=2

Notice how Link goes up in percentage during the day?
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Drop it to the floor...

Xuxon posted...

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2013 6:03:56 PM | #432

See: her stratospheric boost from 2002 to 2k3/4.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/?name1=Samus&year1=2002c&name2=Samus&year2=2004c

Year to year stats are a pretty dicey affair. Just look at the difference in her Sonic matches - she clearly got a very significant Prime boost.
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kinsho3 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

He's not. He's saying that Mario hasn't done ANYTHING since 2005, and he's right.

He used Sephiroth smashing Mario that year as proof that Mario may not be strong.

It's also impossible for Mario to siphon off all of Snake's SSBB support, which is very bad for him. Snake's SSBB boost is arguably the single biggest boost any elite character has ever received in these contests.

It's impossible for the second strongest Nintendo character to siphon off any Nintendo support Snake might get? Really?

Read my statement again.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Xuxon posted...

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2013 6:03:56 PM | #432

See: her stratospheric boost from 2002 to 2k3/4.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/?name1=Samus&year1=2002c&name2=Samus&year2=2004c

Year to year stats are a pretty dicey affair. Just look at the difference in her Sonic matches - she clearly got a very significant Prime boost.

Mario killed her post-Prime.
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Drop it to the floor...

it's impossible to say whether that's because Sonic got weaker or Samus got stronger. her Seph and Cloud percentages suggest little change on their own.
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kinsho3 posted...

Denzokuken posted...

kinsho3 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Samus also has had more reason to go up than Mario! Not to mention using a 12 hour match is deceptive in percentages considering how much Cloud was pasting her by the end of the poll.

It's a 12-hour night match. Cloud would have likely lost percentage were it 24 hours.

Not again... This is one of the biggest myths of the stats topic. Cloud would have beaten Samus with at least 55% if that had been a 24 hour match.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3856&num=2

Notice how Link goes up in percentage during the day?

If you're comparing Samus's day vote to Link's I'm not sure there's really much we can do for you.
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Cloud (and probably Sephiroth too) maybe dropped ~5% in strength relative to everyone else over the years, but for some reason Cloud and Link are destined to go 53-47 for eternity even if Link could double Samus/Sephiroth/Snake with ease because why the hell not.

Cloud lost .24% after the 12 hour mark against LINK

Is that supposed to help your case? Because if anything it's convincing me that he would have went up against Samus
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more like a Sonic deboost

Xuxon posted...

it's impossible to say whether that's because Sonic got weaker or Samus got stronger. her Seph and Cloud percentages suggest little change on their own.

Her Seph and Cloud percentages are post KHF. Please don't tell me you think Cloud/Seph stayed constant from 2002 to 2k3/4.
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Karma Hunter posted...

kinsho3 posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

He's not. He's saying that Mario hasn't done ANYTHING since 2005, and he's right.

He used Sephiroth smashing Mario that year as proof that Mario may not be strong.

It's also impossible for Mario to siphon off all of Snake's SSBB support, which is very bad for him. Snake's SSBB boost is arguably the single biggest boost any elite character has ever received in these contests.

It's impossible for the second strongest Nintendo character to siphon off any Nintendo support Snake might get? Really?

Read my statement again.

Yeah, if you're relying on any residual support from Nintendo fans for Snake to beat Mario after Mario already siphoned off the majority of his post-Brawl strength boost.....then I think that's a pretty foolish move.
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Drop it to the floor...

yes they boosted, and she did much better on Seph 02 than Cloud 04, which is why her x-stat remains similar
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Metroid Prime 3 and Other M are going to amount to something near zero for Samus. If these are the types of games boosting Samus, there would be reason to think Mario Galaxy would do something for Mario. Both probably didn't move much fom either game.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

Cloud was going up as the Samus match ended, and he would have ended higher after 12 more hours. I don't think he would have made it to 54%; he probably would have ended up around 53.5%.

Note that Link's day vote/ASV is considerably stronger than Samus's. Against Link, a night match might be slightly better for Cloud than 24 hours, but not against Samus.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.