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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1117
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Votals
should get better with school back in session (this is the kinda thing
that would be spread via word of mouth) and less fodder in matches. I could see the later 12 hour matches pulling 45k on regularity. Time will tell. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Well, there's a nice cut out of nowhere. Breaks the run of 7 consecutive gains. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Yeah Aeris has gotta throw out more of those to stay in the game and hope to catch some fire later. Still looking shaky. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Wow, 17k already and it's only the second round. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Yup this match is on pace on cracking the top 10 day vote totals. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith |
Holy gains, Shepard! He took back everything he lost and then some! |
Ya go my variance. Shepherd keeps this up another couple hours or so it'll be out of reach I think. --- *shrug* |
Shepard punches out the reporter --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Also,
I'd be pretty surprised if Shepard isn't stronger now than he was in
2010. Mass Effect didn't even exist on PS3 in 2010, and ME2 was fresh
off the presses. Plus, for all the problems ME3 had, Shepard wasn't one of them. He's just as awesome as he's ever been in ME3, if not moreso. I guess you could argue a bad game could hurt Shep even if he was good in it, but I'd still say he benefited from ME3 regardless of its reception. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Red is winning that match. Wario isn't going to hold up against actual competition; he isn't particularly likeable. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Trend chart from the night match: Time | Link | Raiden | Yoshi | Votes 0:05 | 57.70% | 21.95% | 20.35% | 688 1:00 | 59.35% | 21.77% | 18.88% | 5407 2:00 | 59.72% | 22.66% | 17.62% | 3071 3:00 | 60.19% | 22.83% | 16.98% | 2361 4:00 | 57.95% | 23.56% | 18.49% | 1774 5:00 | 57.22% | 25.00% | 17.78% | 1552 6:00 | 55.60% | 27.95% | 16.45% | 1392 7:00 | 59.53% | 22.98% | 17.50% | 1606 8:00 | 60.48% | 21.52% | 18.00% | 1817 9:00 | 61.81% | 19.84% | 18.35% | 2087 10:00 | 63.15% | 19.57% | 17.28% | 2182 11:00 | 62.04% | 20.20% | 17.76% | 2213 12:00 | 61.76% | 20.79% | 17.44% | 2270 Looks like school is back in session, in more ways than one. After Raiden puts up some strong hours in the night vote, Link simply destroys the last 5 hours of the poll. X-Stats: Link 50.00% Raiden 26.90% Waluigi 23.71% Yoshi 22.93% Isaac BOI 17.45% Tingle 14.14% Solaire of Astora 13.48% Alan Wake 9.74% Demi-Fiend 9.15% Link's prediction percentage was 90.47% --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
LordoftheMorons posted... Red is winning that match. Wario isn't going to hold up against actual competition; he isn't particularly likeable. Neither is Wolf, and he still cost Fox the match despite being reduced to looking like bad, bad, bad fodder. Wario's still going to have a marked detrimental effect on Red, and will only underscore just how much Wrex will stand out from the pack. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Also current X-Stats for this match: Commander Shepard 50.00% Aerith Gainsborough 49.41% Captain Olimar 35.33% Hero 33.17% Tharja 31.31% Rinoa Heartilly 30.96% Tiny Tina 30.93% Juliet Starling 27.55% Kain 23.38% Should've stuck Rinoa into Tharja's match in place of Juliet, apparently...! --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Who
exactly determines the adjustment value for SFF in the x-stats? Like, I
decided to simply estimate Yoshi based off past standings and give him a
32 for my own personal estimates of strength. --- Green is not a creative color http://themanicdepressives.wordpress.com/ |
woo Shepard Magus doubled this guy once so Crono and Pikachu are probably both boned --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
So even though Yoshi actually got more on Raiden than Waluigi did, he ends up going under him in the x-stats. X-stats are weird --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
CasanovaZelos posted... Who exactly determines the adjustment value for SFF in the x-stats? Like, I decided to simply estimate Yoshi based off past standings and give him a 32 for my own personal estimates of strength. I usually base it off of past X-Stats placements, but Yoshi hasn't had a clear reading since... ...2003, holy crap. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
Then00bAvenger posted... So even though Yoshi actually got more on Raiden than Waluigi did, he ends up going under him in the x-stats. Well, it's the format. The X-Stats are calculated based on what 2nd and 3rd place get on 1st place. But if you extrapolate 2nd place vs. 3rd place, the number comes out differently. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
CasanovaZelos posted... Who exactly determines the adjustment value for SFF in the x-stats? Like, I decided to simply estimate Yoshi based off past standings and give him a 32 for my own personal estimates of strength. It depends on whose stats you're using. Yoshi is particularly hard to gauge, in large part because there's a very vocal crowd, myself among them, who think he's a minor fraud. Haven't had a read on him since he got obliterated by Squall. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Yeah,
Yoshi's stats make no sense at all. I figured 32 will be good enough,
as that puts Solaire slightly above Isaac, which I think makes sense.
With my adjustment, I got: Link: 50% xYoshi: 32% Raiden: 26.90% Waluigi: 23.71% xSolaire: 18.81% Isaac (BoI): 17.45% Tingle: 14.14% xDemi-Fiend: 12.77% Alan Wake: 9.74% --- Green is not a creative color http://themanicdepressives.wordpress.com/ |
LeonhartFour posted... CasanovaZelos posted...Who exactly determines the adjustment value for SFF in the x-stats? Like, I decided to simply estimate Yoshi based off past standings and give him a 32 for my own personal estimates of strength. I dunno, his first two 2006 matches and his first two 2007 matches seem reasonable enough. --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
LeonhartFour posted...
LOL |
2003? He lost to another Mario character. Who knows if that's even legit? --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
And yeah, his 2008 first round seems fine too. --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
Then00bAvenger posted... So even though Yoshi actually got more on Raiden than Waluigi did, he ends up going under him in the x-stats. It's only because we do all of the x-stats relative to the match winner. And that's totally arbitrary. We could just as easily use Yoshi's x-stat on Raiden instead of Link for his value. Hey Leon, why do you calculate based on the winner? I mean, it might be easier, but it's kinda arbitrary, isn't it? |
I
don't like 32 on Link. I don't see Yoshi improving much if at all from
42 on Squall, and that would put Squall at 38 on Link, which puts Snake
at close to 47 on Link. ...32 will work just fine, actually. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Oh man, 200 vote barrier GET! Shepard on a tear now! |
The Mana Sword posted... I dunno, his first two 2006 matches and his first two 2007 matches seem reasonable enough. Yeah, but I'd have to make an adjustment based off of a proportion to Dante or Knuckles that probably doesn't exist anymore. Basing him off of his first match against Squall in 2008 would probably be the most accurate at this point, and that's probably not that great either. Janus5000 posted... 2003? He lost to another Mario character. Who knows if that's even legit? It's closer to legit than his other performances. How much SFF are you expecting in a 56/44 match anyway? --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
Karma Hunter posted... I don't like 32 on Link. I don't see Yoshi improving much if at all from 42 on Squall, and that would put Squall at 38 on Link, which puts Snake at close to 47 on Link. Squall probably is at that level, so I can believe it. Snake seems a bit too high but we don't have a super clean read on him. 45 though? I can buy it. (Unless we want to argue Mario is 48% on BL before SFF...I can totally see that, actually.) |
Karma Hunter posted... I don't like 32 on Link. I don't see Yoshi improving much if at all from 42 on Squall, and that would put Squall at 38 on Link, which puts Snake at close to 47 on Link. :lol |
TheOneAboveAll posted... Hey Leon, why do you calculate based on the winner? I mean, it might be easier, but it's kinda arbitrary, isn't it? Because ultimately the X-Stats are about how characters would do on the winner. But basically the moral of the story is to take multi-way X-Stats with several helpings of salt. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
She just refuses to die. If Shep can get this to 300, the match is over. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Goo Shepard put her under 40%! Also first ninepack Chester stats! lol sff Link - 13.51’ Raiden - 4.97’ Yoshi - 4.01’ Waluigi - 3.91’ Isaac - 2.53’ Tingle - 2.22’ Solaire - 1.67’ Alan - 1.10’ Demi-Fiend - 1.00’ --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Shepard and Aerith have basically flip-flopped the last three updates. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Karma Hunter posted...I don't like 32 on Link. I don't see Yoshi improving much if at all from 42 on Squall, and that would put Squall at 38 on Link, which puts Snake at close to 47 on Link. This isn't BL, this is estimates against current Link... and Link being able to bring someone from being worth 48 on him down to 38~ post-SFF would be by far the most extreme SFF we've ever seen. If anything it would be more evidence on the pile of Samus/Snake being stronger than Mario indirectly. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
So Yoshi is weaker than Waluigi with x-stats and not chester stats huh --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
x-stats > chester stats confirmed --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... x-stats > chester stats confirmed I don't think you understand how the greater than sign works. --- *shrug* |
nintendogirl1 posted... I don't think you understand how the greater than sign works. Yoshi ending up above Waluigi is a major blow to the Chester Stats. Although I assume pjbasis is doing the silly thing of comparing Raiden and Yoshi to each other than to Link and that's why Yoshi ends up ahead of Waluigi. --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
too bad WALUIGI TIME http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Waluigi_8758af_655568.jpg --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Using Yoshi/Squall I in 2008 and Squall's 2010 value, Yoshi is worth 30.6% on Link. 2010 Dante was worth 31.39% on Link. He might have benefited slightly from Ryu getting anti-votes against Cloud. Yoshi still being around the same ballpark as Dante sounds viable to me. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
7 hours till Draven proves he is a fraud Maybe then people will finally realize there is such a big difference between a fodder and a mega fodder to 2 near elite/high midcarder Not to talk about beating Link...the difference in power in those contests is something else Link crashed Luigi so bad,and Luigi owned Zero like nothing This is just one example of how much power difference can be vast,and this match will prove it perfectly |
Karma Hunter posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Karma Hunter posted...I don't like 32 on Link. I don't see Yoshi improving much if at all from 42 on Squall, and that would put Squall at 38 on Link, which puts Snake at close to 47 on Link. I can buy that. In practice it means Mario is very likely the Number 2 guy because if you take Link out he ends up meeting everyone who can beat him directly, so the numbers bear out that he has the intangibles needed to win when not faced with the guy at the top of the Ninty totem pole. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Karma Hunter posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...Karma Hunter posted...I don't like 32 on Link. I don't see Yoshi improving much if at all from 42 on Squall, and that would put Squall at 38 on Link, which puts Snake at close to 47 on Link. It actually wouldn't mean that at all in practice, actually. Snake/Cloud and Samus/Cloud are not gimmes, and if Cloud can beat either one of them while Mario is weaker indirectly it means Mario can't beat Cloud. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
It's
also very difficult for me to envision Cloud being our #5 character at
best now. Maybe not #2, but suddenly being #5 would be a heckuva fall.
Heck you may as well start arguing post-SSB4 Mega Man over him at that
point if you think the decline's been that precipitous. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Yeah, this is very much over. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Nanis23 posted... 7 hours till Draven proves he is a fraud This is borderline incoherent. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Nanis23 posted...7 hours till Draven proves he is a fraud Yeah I worded it badly My english sucks |
It's
also very difficult for me to envision Cloud being our #5 character at
best now. Maybe not #2, but suddenly being #5 would be a heckuva fall.
Heck you may as well start arguing post-SSB4 Mega Man over him at that
point if you think the decline's been that precipitous. It's not much of a fall to go from 2 to 5, Snake and Samus are essentially equal in 2010 and Mario is probably not much stronger, if he even is. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith |
I
think I understand what you're driving at after a second look, but it's
not entirely apt. L-Block was weak enough to easily lose to Kirby but
because of its loyal bloc of voters and getting a lot of steam/rallies,
it was eventually able to win the contest over Link. So if Draven can
get another rally and retain his the loyalty of his voters (and his
first match was legit... which is debatable), then he has something of a
shot. Comparing Link/Luigi and Luigi/Zero is pretty unfair too. Link SFFed the bajeezus out of Luigi, and that makes him look much worse than he actually is. Putting it another way, back in 2005 Solid Snake went 50/50 with Bowser. He won and in the very next match put up 43% on Mario. Yet Bowser gets killed 71/29 in a direct match with Mario, as we saw just the year before. Speaking of that performance I'd really like to see Snake/Mario again - I don't place much stock into the people that say Snake has no chance because the last time we saw them 1v1 he got 43% pre-Brawl announcement, pre-Brawl release, pre-MGS4, and pre-MGSV hype/trailers/etc. Snake should at the very least make that a heckuva match. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
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