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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1117
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And Aerith cuts. Why the hell are people calling this? It doesn't look like Shep is going to go on a rampage. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
Lopen posted... this is like blaming Jinjo and Lucas on Kirby's throttling at the hands of Big Boss. Big Boss nearly had 50% on the whole poll. Kirby would have gotten stomped regardless, just not around the level of a low midcarder. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
this is like blaming Jinjo and Lucas on Kirby's throttling at the hands of Big Boss. Isn't this common consensus though? It's doubtful that Kirby would have won 1v1 He'd do better though --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith |
Lopen posted... this is like blaming Jinjo and Lucas on Kirby's throttling at the hands of Big Boss. I thought the consensus was that Jinjo and Lucas were worthless, and Kirby lost to Big Boss on his own merits? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
That monster 50 vote cut just looks really out of place now. Aeris is chipping away again. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Why
would this be Shepard's best time? You do realize that Europe's the
only thing keep Aeris in this, right? Shep's best time is going to be
towards the end of the poll. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
This isn't Shepard's best time. Europe doesn't really die off in these matches until 6 PM. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-25.jpg Big Boss had a gigantic advantage, here. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I
don't think that Lucas and Jinjo LFFed Kirby as much as Big Boss
overperformed because of "wtf is all this cutey **** *votes Big Boss"
Basically the reverse of what Kirby did to everyone else the rest of the
contest. Also thought this was the common belief. Guess not! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... Why would this be Shepard's best time? You do realize that Europe's the only thing keep Aeris in this, right? Shep's best time is going to be towards the end of the poll. It's not just about geolocation, it's also about trends. FF7 does better in the United States during the SNV. I wouldn't say Shepard is guaranteed to have his best time at the end of the poll at all. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Not_Wylvane posted... Magus is the antagonist for a good chunk of CT, so being optional wouldn't really matter anyway. X got 32.72% on Link in 2010. He probably got SFFed, but he didn't die. Shepard is probably around the 30% on Link level. I think X would be a slight favorite against Shepard. Close though. Is that a day or night match though? We know how terrible Mega Man is in Europe. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Lopen posted... I don't think that Lucas and Jinjo LFFed Kirby as much as Big Boss overperformed because of "wtf is all this cutey **** *votes Big Boss" Basically the reverse of what Kirby did to everyone else the rest of the contest. Um, BB almost certainly woulda beat Kirby, with an old man pic, the very next round if it weren't for Raiden suddenly ninja-stabbing him in the back. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
What KH said. I hope. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Karma Hunter posted...
I said towards the end of the poll. SNV will probably be slight edge Aeris but like 6-9pm EST is when Shep should start going to town on her. That being said even with a slight edge in the US in that time she's losing the US by over 5% right now. I'm not sure she can turn that especially since I think Mass Effect's SNV is pretty good too. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: creativename | Posted: 8/19/2013 3:22:57 PM | #311 Is that a day or night match though? We know how terrible Mega Man is in Europe. round 3 and on is 24 hours --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
creativename posted... Not_Wylvane posted...Magus is the antagonist for a good chunk of CT, so being optional wouldn't really matter anyway. Division finals and onward last the entire day. --- Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery. |
I
agree with you Lopen. You could have put Kirby and Big Boss in a 1v1 a
month later and I wouldn't have blinked twice if Kirby had won with 53%
or something. We're on a hardcore gaming site. I know this isn't the way we're used to evaluating these polls, but the truth is that a vast majority of the people here are familiar with AND have generally fond feelings toward all of the big name characters we throw on the front page (that includes Boss and Kirby). When you're familiar with and like both, then any simple thing can turn the advantage in a match. I voted for Big Boss that day. If it had been Boss/Dante/Chief/Kirby, I might have voted for Kirby. Pics and opposition can change so much. That's why multiway polls are crazy and NEED to be evaluated in a vacuum BEFORE you ever attempt to evaluate them in the grand scheme of things like you would in 1v1 matches that are almost always neutral. And yes, once again, I realize it's LAME AS F*** to take this approach because it essentially renders entire contests meaningless from a stats point of view, BUT IT'S THE TRUTH. ACCEPT THE TRUTH OR I'LL STOP BEING YOUR FRIEND. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
Lopen posted... Karma Hunter posted... I'm not saying she should be favored - though ME's trends are a pretty big wild card as is, I don't think we have any evidence of a good SNV as is. I'm saying maybe we shouldn't call this thing when they're still deadlocked at around like 50-60 votes. :/ --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Lopen posted...Why would this be Shepard's best time? You do realize that Europe's the only thing keep Aeris in this, right? Shep's best time is going to be towards the end of the poll. Agreed, this is something I mention often. People overrate geolocation so much and ignore intra-country trends. FF7 has greater strength in the US in the SNV than they do in the ASV. This has always been the case. If Aeris has normal FF7 trends, she should do better with the SNV, though it's not guaranteed. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
voted for Big Boss that day and I don't even like Big Boss. I dislike
him, actually. But he was pointing at me and I'm ambivalent about the
others, so whatever. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
ChenKenichiFan posted... I agree with you Lopen. You could have put Kirby and Big Boss in a 1v1 a month later and I wouldn't have blinked twice if Kirby had won with 53% or something. I can respect this viewpoint, but Big Boss's R2 match would seem to contradict it heavily. BB put up 45.5% on Kirby despite Kirby having a huge match picture advantage (huge STF *and* Old Man Boss!!) and having Raiden leech him for everything he was worth. It's very hard to envision replacing Raiden with someone not-MGS and replacing Old Man Boss with Naked Snake, and see BB losing. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I
agree geolocation is overstated but a 5% advantage in the US is nothing
to turn your nose up at. Especially since I'm going to wager this one
actually gets a bit more ugly in the US (based on Wrex vs Cecil) before
the SNV hits. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... I agree geolocation is overstated but a 5% advantage in the US is nothing to turn your nose up at. Especially since I'm going to wager this one actually gets a bit more ugly in the US (based on Wrex vs Cecil) before the SNV hits. Cecil is very, very, very bad in the day. Pit is very lucky he didn't get him at night. Aeris should be worlds better (and indeed, at this very moment she continues to stall around that 50-60 vote range). --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Why do I get the feeling that this is going to be SOTC vs. MGS2 all over again? --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
I
think Shepard has more 'rally' power too. If it ends up close (I don't
think it does, this is going to get worse for Aeris before it ever gets
better), I doubt the Mass Effect fanbase lets Shepard lose. They care
about him way more than FF7 fans care about Aeris. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I
dunno why I'm arguing this, I have Shepard and expected him to coast
today. I guess I'm just feeling a bit alienated that I'm one of the few
that considers this a really good match right now :( --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
All you need to do is post onto 4chan that a FF7 character has a chance of losing and Shep will have no problem getting a rally. --- http://i.minus.com/jbiGPMGVHJkJ5F.png http://i.minus.com/jbjrjeszi5Bojs.jpg http://i.minus.com/jDswy1q7MCAye.jpg http://i.minus.com/jX6dhkFSD8ugm.jpg |
Oh. Right. lol Mewtwo :( --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Lopen posted... I agree geolocation is overstated but a 5% advantage in the US is nothing to turn your nose up at. Especially since I'm going to wager this one actually gets a bit more ugly in the US (based on Wrex vs Cecil) before the SNV hits. This. Let us take a moment to remember that Squall needed a humongous continent-wide advantage in Europe over Auron to beat Auron winning by 2% in the US. Shep is looking solid here. |
2Dover3D posted... All you need to do is post onto 4chan that a FF7 character has a chance of losing and Shep will have no problem getting a rally. Would be funny to see someone do this. I think you'd get Tharja boosting like whoa. |
Cecil being very very bad in the day is kinda speculatory. He's always been against day vote characters and has never really completely rolled over against them. Comparing Wrex to Pit also suggests that Mass Effect's day vote is decent since I think he made about as much strides with it as Pit did. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
KanzarisKelshen posted... 2Dover3D posted...All you need to do is post onto 4chan that a FF7 character has a chance of losing and Shep will have no problem getting a rally. Yeah this. I mean, they rallied for Tharja in round 1 so... --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
To be fair, it's Pit. He could have a great day vote and it'd still look terrible because of how crazy his board vote is. --- ~War~ |
Lopen posted... Cecil being very very bad in the day is kinda speculatory. He's always been against day vote characters and has never really completely rolled over against them. It's imprecise to evaluate day only matches because the trends are much more muted. I wouldn't call Zack a real day vote character but Cecil still got rolled by him percentage-wise in their 24 hour match. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Do you guys think Garrus beats Sub Zero in a day or 24 match --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
And
there's Shep finally breaking 100. If he can continue stringing this
together he's got a nice shot at putting this out of reach. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Shepard
goes over 100. I think he's the favorite because he should also have a
strong SNV, but with such a small lead, it's too early to call this. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Shep's going to be winning by like 1000 votes by the time the SNV comes imhhhho. Aeris no chance to survive. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Whoa! We know it's a good match (or a Crono one) if it pulls Red Sox out of hibernation. |
With
regards to Crono/Zero, that was probably the worst Crono has ever
looked in a match (no, losing to Missingno is not worse). If Crono
weren't a Noble Niner, and the Noble Nine weren't 120-0 or something,
Vincent would have been a big favorite for the next round. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
superange128 posted... Do you guys think Garrus beats Sub Zero in a day or 24 match No. Sub-Zero is NA strong as well, IIRC. No reason to think Garrus can thrash him so badly he loses. |
You say Crono enough times, red sox appears --- F*** BT |
Also
this scrambles what little I could gauge Wario/Red/Wrex even more for
me. I expected Shep to be doing more than this to Aeris, but who knows
how strong Wrex is in relation to that, where Red is, how much Wario
will hurt, how much Wrex standing out SO MUCH is worth... --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
TheKoolAidShoto posted... You say Crono enough times, red sox appears What happens if you turn off the lights in the bathroom and say "Crono" three times to the mirror? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... What happens if you turn off the lights in the bathroom and say "Crono" three times to the mirror? a wild Pikachu appears |
Shepard has now conquered Canada --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
red sox 777 posted... With regards to Crono/Zero, that was probably the worst Crono has ever looked in a match (no, losing to Missingno is not worse). If Crono weren't a Noble Niner, and the Noble Nine weren't 120-0 or something, Vincent would have been a big favorite for the next round. I also agree with this. People forget that the round beforehand Zero had failed to double HK-47. Heck, he did worse on him than Sora had done in 2004. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
It
is 1 PM on the West Coast, 4 PM on the East Coast, 9 PM in the UK, 10
PM in most of continental Europe, 4 AM in China and the Philippines, and
5 AM in Japan. One thing Aeris has going for her is that Asia is going to wake up as Europe goes to sleep. Shepard just keeps on steadily gaining though- he's been gaining about 80/hr since the end of the 1st hour of the match. I forgot who I took in this match, it turns out I took Shepard, but I want to see Aeris win. And just once, I'd like to see FFVII do a rally. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Damn, the vote totals got even better. It might actually have a chance of getting more votes than the 2nd match of the contest that got over 37,000 --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Aerith
may have Asia, but they don't vote enough to have the same effect as
Europe, even if it looks like they are supporting her more. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith |
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