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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1117
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I
would take Snake over Mario, at least indirectly. Whether Mario can sap
snake's Brawl strength just enough to beat him is debatable. Personally
I have no idea on that. But I think Snake would perform better on Cloud/Seph than Mario would - although it would be close. I don't think Snake and Mario are more than 2 x-stat points apart at most. The whole Snake/Mario/Cloud/Samus group has become extremely tight. I think Samus is the weakest, but I could see Snake/Mario/Cloud all potentially beating each other. I don't buy this Mega Man>Sephiroth talk though. kinsho3 posted... Notice how Link goes up in percentage during the day? augh not this crap again Notice how Cloud was smashing Samus during the day? You think that just miiiight be more relevant? Cloud got 54% on Samus for the last 10 hours of that poll. His %age is hurt by Samus doing great during the Power Hours. Cloud have have continued to rise to heaven for the rest of that match. I truly can't believe people actually still think this, do these people even look at the updates for that match? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
kinsho3 posted... Karma Hunter posted...kinsho3 posted...Karma Hunter posted...He's not. He's saying that Mario hasn't done ANYTHING since 2005, and he's right. It's not the majority. Even against huge SSB leeches who are worth virtually nothing without Smash, Mario can't take away the majority of their support. Ness gets sapped from being worth around 24% on Mario to 17% on Mario when he faces him directly. Mario can undercut the support to an extent, but the damage is already done to him. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... If you're comparing Samus's day vote to Link's I'm not sure there's really much we can do for you. I always thought Samus fell in line with other Nintendo characters in that they tend to do well during the day. I assume by your disgusted reaction that this isn't true. All right. So instead of 52.5%, Cloud would have gotten, what....54% at most? Mario can surmount that. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Xuxon posted... yes they boosted, and she did much better on Seph 02 than Cloud 04, which is why her x-stat remains similar She's projected to do about the same on Seph 2004 as Seph 2002, even though post-2003 Seph boosted through the roof. That infers quite a large Prime boost. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
kinsho3 posted... Karma Hunter posted...If you're comparing Samus's day vote to Link's I'm not sure there's really much we can do for you. Not all Nintendo and Square characters are created equal - characters like Kefka and Sora are like night and day (literally). Samus has very even trends (unlike ASV godstomper Link), so she would do worse relative to FF7 in a 24 hour match. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Xuxon posted...yes they boosted, and she did much better on Seph 02 than Cloud 04, which is why her x-stat remains similar still got stomped by Mario unless you're telling me somewhere along the line, she boosted AGAIN |
kinsho3 posted... Cloud would have gotten, what....54% at most? Mario can surmount that. As red said, Cloud probably would have been able to get 53.50% or slightly higher. And yeah Mario can do better than that...which means...absolutely nothing? Cloud would do better on Seph than Mario would too, big whoop. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
There's
a pretty significant difference between Prime's release and the time of
Other M's release, not to mention the reception of the games after
Prime never reached those same heights. What is there to suggest she
benefited to any notable degree from either? --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2013 6:17:17 PM | #454 Xuxon posted...yes they boosted, and she did much better on Seph 02 than Cloud 04, which is why her x-stat remains similar that's because Cloud changed a lot relative to Seph after 2003 (or there was SFF) --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted...Xuxon posted...yes they boosted, and she did much better on Seph 02 than Cloud 04, which is why her x-stat remains similar Samus isn't going to beat Mario directly. The question is if she is the stronger of the two indirectly, which has been an open debate for many years now. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Direct SFF matches are not indicative of indirect values. --- *shrug* |
Karma Hunter posted... Not all Nintendo and Square characters are created equal - characters like Kefka and Sora are like night and day (literally). Samus has very even trends (unlike ASV godstomper Link), so she would do worse relative to FF7 in a 24 hour match. Well, I know not all characters under a particular brand have similar trends, but I thought the Nintendo triumvirate had similar trends. I guess not! --- Drop it to the floor... |
Karma Hunter posted... Samus isn't going to beat Mario directly. The question is if she is the stronger of the two indirectly, which has been an open debate for many years now. do you people STILL think Samus can do better? you guys never learn |
A
lot of the feeling that Mario can take away Snake's SSBB support comes
from the idea that Samus did that to him in 2006. But in retrospect,
most of that was probably just Samus being that strong. The female
brackets matches with Tifa and Zelda were the anomaly, much more than
the Snake match. Now, Mario can do more siphoning than Samus, but I
wouldn't fear it too too much. Remember, "It's Freaking Mario" is logic
that has only ever applied against 1 character: Samus. It's never
helped him a jot against Crono, Sephiroth, Link, whoever. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
ZFS posted... There's a pretty significant difference between Prime's release and the time of Other M's release, not to mention the reception of the games after Prime never reached those same heights. What is there to suggest she benefited to any notable degree from either? Nothing really (though I think she was helped a touch in 2010 by Other M hype and its imminent release, nothing more than maybe half a point though), which is why I emphatically reject the idea of Mario having boosted from any of his releases. Mario lives and dies on the composition of the site's voters and how Nintendo-friendly they are. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted...Samus isn't going to beat Mario directly. The question is if she is the stronger of the two indirectly, which has been an open debate for many years now. No, I don't, not to any degree that would change the match. But that's not what being stronger indirectly means. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
creativename posted... Notice how Cloud was smashing Samus during the day? You think that just miiiight be more relevant? Fair enough, though I don't think rising to 54% is all that impressive. Regardless, the point was to demonstrate that Cloud has weakened over the years, and that he is especially vulnerable to the likes of Mario, let alone Snake. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Karma Hunter posted...
no, you still think Samus can do better against the likes of Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake compared to Mario you people just can't let it go |
I
do like how the Cloud/Mario/Snake/Samus quadumvirate discussion got
this topic moving faster than when the actual match was neck and neck
<_< --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
creativename posted... And yeah Mario can do better than that...which means...absolutely nothing? Cloud would do better on Seph than Mario would too, big whoop. Are you trying to act dense? It means Mario can beat Cloud, especially given that he's likely stronger than Samus, unless you believe in all that rSFF nonsense. --- Drop it to the floor... |
I
agree that completely. I think the site's friendliness toward Nintendo
matters a lot more to Mario boosting than any individual release, unless
the game was unanimously considered the best game ever or something,
and I don't think any of his releases since 2005 have mattered too much.
I don't think Samus has really moved the dial much either, though. She
has more potential to, since Metroid games are the types to get hype and
get people excited, but it needs to be Prime-esque instead of a sequel
most people forget about. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
do you people STILL think Samus can do better? you guys never learn There's no question Samus can do better indirectly, because she's done it before. In fact, in 2004, it was a 56/44 gap. And I took Mario > Samus in 2005 directly too. It's a completely different game. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted... She, uh, has though. I mean, historically, we've seen it happen. She got as much on Link in 2003 as Mario got on Sephiroth. She put up slightly less on Cloud in 2004 as Mario put on Sephiroth in 2005. I don't necessarily buy it, but it's a valid discussion. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
red sox 777 posted... do you people STILL think Samus can do better? I'm pretty sure Mario was on steroids relative to the entire field in 2005, not just Samus (until he ran into Sephiroth, but that's for another time) |
Karma Hunter posted... Samus isn't going to beat Mario directly. The question is if she is the stronger of the two indirectly, which has been an open debate for many years now. I think Mario 2005 was very clearly stronger than Samus indirectly, the whole Mario franchise went beast-mode that year. And I think Mario has been stronger than Samus every year since then. Now in 2K2-2K4, it's not even clear if Mario would have been able to beat Samus. People forget that Mario boosted 7 points relative to Crono from 2K4 to 2K5. Mario pre-2K5 was *not* a powerhouse. Even if Mario could have used some sort of rSFF to beat Samus in 2K2-2K4, he would have barely edged her out. And we don't even know if he would have won. The degree of SFF increases with the degree of strength difference. A Mario 7 points weaker may not have been able to manage any rSFF at all, for all we know. People really forget about some of the really crappy Mario performances in 2K2-2K4. Since 2K5 Mario has never really had a bad performance against anybody but Clinkeroth. Post-2005 Mario is a completely different animal. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
ZFS posted... I agree that completely. I think the site's friendliness toward Nintendo matters a lot more to Mario boosting than any individual release, unless the game was unanimously considered the best game ever or something, and I don't think any of his releases since 2005 have mattered too much. I don't think Samus has really moved the dial much either, though. She has more potential to, since Metroid games are the types to get hype and get people excited, but it needs to be Prime-esque instead of a sequel most people forget about. Other M did have a lot of hype though - people tend to forget this because it was so bad, but there was a lot of buzz about it being the thing to get her over the hump against Cloud. Heck, it's discussed in the analyses of that very match! I wouldn't be surprised to see her a touch weaker as a result - again, nothing serious at all, but could make a difference in any of these discussed setups. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
.....how do you guys think this next match is going to turn out, anyway |
I'm
going to do my first bracket surrender and say I see X > Ryu >
Draven getting through. I was banking on X being a clear tier below MM,
and that doesn't look like a good bet anymore, even before factoring in
SSB4. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... I'm going to do my first bracket surrender and say I see X > Ryu > Draven getting through. I was banking on X being a clear tier below MM, and that doesn't look like a good bet anymore, even before factoring in SSB4. ....you had Ryu in your bracket? |
Ryu wins because of Twitch rSFF when Draven gets his Super Rally going. |
creativename posted... Karma Hunter posted...Samus isn't going to beat Mario directly. The question is if she is the stronger of the two indirectly, which has been an open debate for many years now. 58% on Mega Man (which was considered to be post-SFF)? 54% on CHARIZARD? I mean I don't necessarily disagree with you, but there are definitely potential problems with the analysis. And for what it's worth, I see Cloud 2010 breaking 58% on Mega Man 2010 without too much fuss, even before accounting for Mario's SFF which makes him weaker than that indirectly. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted...I'm going to do my first bracket surrender and say I see X > Ryu > Draven getting through. I was banking on X being a clear tier below MM, and that doesn't look like a good bet anymore, even before factoring in SSB4. it made more sense when I thought Ocelot was a loser okay --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
kinsho3 posted... Fair enough, though I don't think rising to 54% is all that impressive. Regardless, the point was to demonstrate that Cloud has weakened over the years, and that he is especially vulnerable to the likes of Mario, let alone Snake. Well I agree there, I already stated that I believe Snake is our current #2. Cloud/Mario I'm more unsure about. kinsho3 posted... creativename posted...And yeah Mario can do better than that...which means...absolutely nothing? Cloud would do better on Seph than Mario would too, big whoop. You were the one who stated that Mario would do better on Samus than Cloud would, as if that means anything at all. And I'm the one acting dense? You're not making any sense with that Mario/Samus thing man. Come on. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Well,
I'm thinking more about Samus today versus Samus then. I can believe
Other M hype helped her a bit at the time, but I don't think it had any
lasting impact. If anything, it's more likely to be a negative effect
than positive, though I would guess it didn't phase her too much, like
you said. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Karma Hunter posted...
There are definitely all sorts of funky things going on in that Charizard match. My guess is a new Pokemon game just being released in combination with voters hopping on the 'TOTALLY UNEXPECTED UPSET' bandwagon propelled Charizard to N9 levels. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Link > Mario > Cloud > Snake > Samus > Seph > Sonic > Mega Man > Crono Indirectly and conveniently enough everyone beats everyone they're ahead of directly as well. --- *shrug* |
That
doesn't really make Mario look like a stud against Mega Man though. The
thing that was supposed to excuse the performance was a MEGA MAN IS BACK argument, which was predicated on... Zack and sprite Ryu H, I guess? AND LOOKING AT THOSE TWO THIS YEAR I'M NOT SURE THOSE PERFORMANCES WERE THAT GOOD --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... 58% on Mega Man (which was considered to be post-SFF)? 54% on CHARIZARD? Decent points, but I don't think Cloud would have gotten 58% on Mega Man. And the Zard thing, I don't even know what to make of that. If Missingno could get 47% on Sephiroth, I could see Zard coming close to that on Cloud. Also I think maybe I'm not being clear. I'm not saying Cloud/Mario was unclear in 2010 - I think Cloud would have beaten Mario in 2010, probably with 51.50%-52.50% or something. I'm saying that right now, I think Cloud and Mario are on pretty equal footing, as Cloud has probably dipped a couple points. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
kinsho3 posted... You were the one who stated that Mario would do better on Samus than Cloud would, as if that means anything at all. Given the context of the discussion, I thought it was pretty clear I was implying that Mario can bridge the difference between Cloud and Samus and actually beat him. I guess it wasn't so clear. You're not making any sense with that Mario/Samus thing man. Come on. What doesn't make sense? That Mario > Samus? --- Drop it to the floor... |
Aerith
comes out strong and builds up a lead of a hundred votes, but Shepard
erases it and pulls back before pulling out to a lead of his own after
the first two hours pass. Perhaps that's evidence of a weakened ASV at
work. Tharja holds up reasonably well. Round 2, Match 3 (3) Draven Round 1: 40.47% vs. Jak & Chie Satonaka (15) Ryu Round 1: 56.19% vs. Yuri Lowell & Face McShooty (7) Mega Man X Round 1: 65.22% vs. Jigglypuff & Welkin Gunther Ryu vs. Mega Man X was debated before the contest, but that more or less died after their round one showings. It's very hard to imagine Yuri L and Borderlands fodder being so much stronger than Jigglypuff and Welkin Gunther that Ryu's 56% is equivalent to X's 65%. Basically, X acted like an N9er while Ryu acted like a near-elite, and near-elites lose to N9ers. Taking their numbers (roughly, from memory) through Link and Cloud, you get X with about 53%, but I've been so impressed by Mega Man in general this contest that I'm confident X will go past that number, and probably fairly easily. Oh yeah, Kanz has been running around like a mafioso, hobbling anyone who'll listen with threats of the millions of votes he's gonna have lined up behind Draven. No one's been taking him seriously, though. If the rally never materialises Draven will end up getting stomped into the earth - he was being blown out by Chie, never mind Jak, without his rally. Bracket: Mega Man X Expert: X > Ryu > Draven Oracle: Mega Man X - 48%; Ryu - 44%; Draven - 8% --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
red sox 777 posted... A lot of the feeling that Mario can take away Snake's SSBB support comes from the idea that Samus did that to him in 2006. But in retrospect, most of that was probably just Samus being that strong. The female brackets matches with Tifa and Zelda were the anomaly, much more than the Snake match. Now, Mario can do more siphoning than Samus, but I wouldn't fear it too too much. Remember, "It's Freaking Mario" is logic that has only ever applied against 1 character: Samus. It's never helped him a jot against Crono, Sephiroth, Link, whoever. 2008. Hammered down by SFF from Link, hurt even further by the presence of a strongly Ninty-aligned near elite in X, Mario still came out and won when it mattered by edging out Zack. You just can't understate how much of a statement that was, considering Mario had every reason to flop and be edged out by black-haired Cloud and didn't. |
Karma Hunter posted... 54% on CHARIZARD? oh we're actually taking the Charizard match at face value now? CHARIZARD>MARIO CONFIRMED |
nintendogirl1 posted... Link > Mario > Cloud > Snake > Samus > Seph > Sonic > Mega Man > Crono There's a lot of grey area among your rankings, but...what makes you think Sonic>Mega Man? That seems off to me. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Yeah,
I think Mario loses to Cloud in 2010, too. It'd be close-ish, but Cloud
would still win by enough. Cloud today is probably worse off. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
kinsho, what you're saying is that you think Mario is worth more than 54% on Samus indirectly, right? --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... kinsho, what you're saying is that you think Mario is worth more than 54% on Samus indirectly, right? even if Mario=Cloud in 2010, he's not worth 54% indirectly..... |
KanzarisKelshen posted... red sox 777 posted...A lot of the feeling that Mario can take away Snake's SSBB support comes from the idea that Samus did that to him in 2006. But in retrospect, most of that was probably just Samus being that strong. The female brackets matches with Tifa and Zelda were the anomaly, much more than the Snake match. Now, Mario can do more siphoning than Samus, but I wouldn't fear it too too much. Remember, "It's Freaking Mario" is logic that has only ever applied against 1 character: Samus. It's never helped him a jot against Crono, Sephiroth, Link, whoever. ...are you implying that was a good performance from Mario? The levels of Mario doing so poorly to the extent that he actually almost dropped that match are phenomenal. Zack is not that strong (LOST TO KEFKA). --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Sorozone posted... Whoa, just realized the votals are really good this match. About ****ing time, too! --- The Gamer In Me His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks |
Play Fire Emblem: Awakening |
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