Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1117

#1 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/19/2013 9:14:46 AM | message detail
I have nothing witty to say.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/19/2013 9:19:21 AM | message detail
Shepard is about to kill Aeris
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#3 | spooky96 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:20:17 AM | message detail
The Real Truth posted...
Shepard is about to kill Aeris


The Real Truth.
#4 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:21:02 AM | message detail
The Real Truth posted...
Shep-hiroth is about to kill Aeris

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#5 | creativename | Posted 8/19/2013 9:22:04 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
xp1337 posted...
I'm just saying that Pikachu faced Shepard directly. Anything that makes Shepard look bad makes Pikachu look bad!

Doesn't help, at least!


If Shepard = Aeris, Pikachu > Auron.

Doubtful...though the stats have Pikachu slightly higher than Auron, Pikachu likely wasn't adjusted down enough there. I don't think Pikachu would beat Auron. Scare him maybe, but not beat him.
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#6 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:22:24 AM | message detail
If we make Tharja equal to Chrom, Aerith only has 57.28% on The Boss
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#7 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 9:22:48 AM | message detail
You know what the last two matches have taught me?

Fire Emblem actually did pretty good. This makes The Boss a near-elite.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#8 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:23:30 AM | message detail
Phoenix to round three confirmed.
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#9 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:23:35 AM | message detail
Aerith taking charge
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#10 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/19/2013 9:24:08 AM | message detail
Aeris with a strong update
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#11 | abdou | Posted 8/19/2013 9:24:23 AM | message detail
whoa
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#12 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/19/2013 9:24:31 AM | message detail
Nice update from the healer! Still not sure who to vote for. I love both Shep and Aeris. Love Shep more, but also love my bracket.
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#13 | pjbasis | Posted 8/19/2013 9:24:46 AM | message detail
When did wrex start wrecking
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#14 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:25:03 AM | message detail
I'm not even sure why there's an argument here! It was a question as to why people would connect this match to Pikachu. I don't think it's that debatable given the direct matchup that any sign of weakness from Shepard isn't good news for Pikachu.

We can argue if this is a bad performance for Shepard or not, but that wasn't the issue I thought!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#15 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:25:21 AM | message detail
Aerith whacks Shepard on the head with her staff.
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#16 | creativename | Posted 8/19/2013 9:25:46 AM | message detail
Aeris hitting dat Limit Break.
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#17 | Achromatic | Posted 8/19/2013 9:25:52 AM | message detail
It is as if none of you guys have ever seen an FFVII board vote what is this amateur hour.
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#18 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:27:05 AM | message detail
It's difficult to say what this match means for Pikachu. If Aerith is worth 44% on Auron and Aerith = Shepard, then Pikachu is well ahead of Auron 2010. But Aerith might be weaker in 2013 than she was in 2010. Shepard might be stronger today than he was then. Wouldn't read too much into it.
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#19 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:28:22 AM | message detail
Guys have we all forgotten Mass Effect 3 happened since last contest, there's no way Pikachu gets 61% on today's Shepard.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#20 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 9:28:27 AM | message detail
Aeris won the board vote last time. FF7 females are different.

Shepard will do better as the match goes on, but he can't have more updates like that.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#21 | Solfadore | Posted 8/19/2013 9:28:48 AM | message detail
Shepard stallin'.
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#22 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:28:59 AM | message detail
Back to stalls.

I'd feel a lot better with a cut!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#23 | abdou | Posted 8/19/2013 9:31:11 AM | message detail
Shepard winning the US , Aerith needs to build up a solid lead before Europe goes to sleep, if she wants to win this match, Shepard just needs to keep stalling.
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#24 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:32:56 AM | message detail
The Geotrends don't always work like that. SE Asia and Australia wake up towards the end of the poll and they will likely favour Aerith heavily and replace Europe's weighting.
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#25 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/19/2013 9:33:13 AM | message detail
Go Aeris, Go Aeris! Yay!
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#26 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:34:01 AM | message detail
A few more updates like that and I'm going to lose hope for Shepard here.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#27 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 9:34:09 AM | message detail
Wrex did better as time went on in his match.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#28 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:35:07 AM | message detail
Wrex did better as time went on in his match.

Wrex also had little board/bracket support.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#29 | swordz9 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:36:29 AM | message detail
If it's only the FF7 girls with good board votes then let's get the only one who matters in next time aka Yuffie.
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#30 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/19/2013 9:37:54 AM | message detail
I always thought Yuffie should get contest dibs before Barrett.
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#31 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/19/2013 9:39:23 AM | message detail
So if Tharja (roughly) = Lucina, then neither Shep nor Aerith are that far ahead of Dracula. Maybe ol' Drac does have a heads up on Alucard as our numero uno blood sucker.
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#32 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/19/2013 9:39:27 AM | message detail
Nah, Yuffie isn't all that likeable in the original game (imo). Barret is with you the whole time, Yuffie is an optional character - I know Vincent is too but it's different. She's worth a shot in a contest but should probably still be prioritised below Nanaki.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#33 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 9:40:03 AM | message detail
Dracula/Barret, who ya got
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#34 | abdou | Posted 8/19/2013 9:40:17 AM | message detail
cut
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#35 | Solfadore | Posted 8/19/2013 9:40:40 AM | message detail
I spy a cut!

(Small, but hey, I'll take it!)
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore
#36 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/19/2013 9:41:49 AM | message detail
How's it different? The optional status did not stop Vincent from becoming a very worthwhile contest entry. She has a much better design than Barrett and has had a much more prominent Square presence since the original game, appearing in both Kingdom Hearts.
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#37 | swordz9 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:41:55 AM | message detail
Yuffie is hilarious in the game and also has Kingdom Hearts. I am still disappointed Barret looked so terrible in his match.
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#38 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/19/2013 9:42:25 AM | message detail
Tharja is an optional character, i don't buy her being as strong as Lucina or Chrom to be honest. Dracula definitely looking good to beat Barret.
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#39 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:44:23 AM | message detail
that was a bad update
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#40 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/19/2013 9:44:26 AM | message detail
Lol Shepard actually went down.

He's finished, though I won't be surprised if I'm proven wrong.
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#41 | creativename | Posted 8/19/2013 9:45:07 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I always thought Yuffie should get contest dibs before Barrett.

Red XIII is the one who should have made it. He'd definitely be stronger than both Yuffie and Barret.

I do think there's a good chance Yuffie is stronger than Barret though.
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#42 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/19/2013 9:45:11 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
How's it different? The optional status did not stop Vincent from becoming a very worthwhile contest entry. She has a much better design than Barrett and has had a much more prominent Square presence since the original game, appearing in both Kingdom Hearts.


Vincent was an instant fan favourite - Yuffie, less so.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#43 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 9:46:40 AM | message detail
Red XIII is a dog. All you need to know.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#44 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:47:13 AM | message detail
Tharja is an optional character, i don't buy her being as strong as Lucina or Chrom to be honest. Dracula definitely looking good to beat Barret.

While I agree she should be weaker than Lucina or Chrom, she's barely an optional character, yes you can technically miss her, but it is general FE knowledge that any enemy with a face that is not a boss is recruitable.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#45 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:48:06 AM | message detail
This match could be done. Aerith is gaining on Shepard all around the world. She's only 2% down within the US too.
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Drop it to the floor...
#46 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:48:59 AM | message detail
Definitely not liking where this is going.

I won't declare it over, but...
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#47 | LOLContests | Posted 8/19/2013 9:49:54 AM | message detail
I really don't think Yuffie is stronger than Barrett. Other than Kingdom Hearts, she doesn't really have much going for her. Barrett is a much more "important" character to the game, and Yuffie has a noticeable amount of people that hate her. I don't really know anyone that hates Barrett. Other than TJF Vs. RacistFAQS, I really wouldn't have any reason to pick her.
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#48 | creativename | Posted 8/19/2013 9:50:23 AM | message detail
Great to see Aeris doing so well.

I was really worried about this one after Garrus and Wrex did so good, even though I wasn't impressed with Shepard himself - letting Olimar get 35% was a meh performance to me.

Odd that Shepard doesn't look to be all that much stronger than his supporting cast.
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#49 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/19/2013 9:50:55 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Guys have we all forgotten Mass Effect 3 happened since last contest, there's no way Pikachu gets 61% on today's Shepard.


Yeah.

He'd probably double him post ME3.
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#50 | Achromatic | Posted 8/19/2013 9:51:08 AM | message detail
"Other than Kingdom Hearts" you mean the series that turned Cloud into a Link killer, launched Auron into noble nine threat, and gave birth to one of our strongest post 2000 characters <_<.
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