Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1116

#401 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/19/2013 6:07:02 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
People still think Toon Link hurts Link? Everyone forgets just how divisive Wind Waker was when it first came out, but it's aged well and people are a lot more forgiving and nostalgic for it now. Plus I thought everyone argued that it didn't affect 2003 Link even though he had two non-SFF matches and kinda stunk up the joint in both.

Also, if we get Link/Cloud/Charizard, what will Charizard's percentage be after the first five minutes?


Wind Waker still won Game of the Year on this site and did well in the first games contest (it beat Metroid Prime at least). I think the bigger factor was people not wanting a repeat champion.


Yeah, that sure has been a HUGE factor in these..
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#402 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/19/2013 6:31:48 AM | message detail
Well it makes sense to me. The only aberration is Cloud in 2004 since he had no notable under-performances. Aside from that:

-It explains L-Block flopping in the bonus match and in 2008.
-It explains Clinkeroth having to deal with anti-votes.
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#403 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/19/2013 6:48:57 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Well it makes sense to me. The only aberration is Cloud in 2004 since he had no notable under-performances. Aside from that:

-It explains L-Block flopping in the bonus match and in 2008.
-It explains Clinkeroth having to deal with anti-votes.


No, the lack of cheating does.

FF VII has always been anti voted, and Link only gets Anti voted by this board, and only for the first 20 or so seconds.

This is a stupid theory, it is not at all based on any logical evidence or fact.


Even if you DON'T include the L Block year as Link winning thanks to DQ, Link has won this thing SEVEN!!!! times. Strangely the only time he ever lost legit, was with a WW pic, but no, I'm sure it was people just not wanting a repeat Champion. Wanna explain Magus Link that year to me then? It was WW pics.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#404 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/19/2013 6:50:27 AM | message detail
Link didn't even get a WW pic against Magus

It was like the only match he didn't
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#405 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/19/2013 6:51:34 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Link didn't even get a WW pic against Magus

It was like the only match he didn't


Hmm, I thought he had it in every 03 match.


Ok, that match just goes back to being the wonkiest thing ever then....
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#406 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/19/2013 6:51:42 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k3/sum03b49.jpg

WW Link was in the background, though CT sprite trumps NES Link.
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#407 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/19/2013 6:53:25 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k3/sum03b49.jpg

WW Link was in the background, though CT sprite trumps NES Link.


Yeah, that's a WW pic. Kudos to finding a way to **** him over with that **** even in the sprite round.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#408 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/19/2013 6:54:53 AM | message detail
Link's gonna do fine, I'm not worried.
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#409 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:02:49 AM | message detail
Match LXXXIII: (2) Commander Shepard vs. (5) Tharja vs. (20) Aerith Gainsborough

Previous Round

Commander Shepard – 54.01%
Captain Olimar – 29.50%
Kain – 16.48%

Tharja – 36.21%
Tiny Tina – 35.35%
Juliet Starling – 28.44%

Aerith Gainsborough – 50.98%
Hero – 25.76%
Rinoa Heartilly – 23.26%

Analysis

It is quite funny that you can argue that all three characters looked pretty bad last round. Tharja is likely the weakest character to have reached the second round with the exception of a non-rallied Draven. While she may be the sole Nintendo option I do not see it helping her as she is unrecognizable to the average Nintendo fan. At least we get to see how weak that three-pack was.

Shepard did not look good last round either, but you could argue a couple of reasons as to why. For one that match was the first match where Olimar did not go up against a Nintendo or Nintendo-like opponent so it was likely he would over perform and second Shepard was given a female Shepard picture which could make him weaker as he is not as recognizable to the average person in that form.

Another issue for Shepard is we now have some data as to where Pikachu may have ranked. Using Lloyd he would be expected to get 34.99% against Solid Snake which would have pushed Shepard to 27.28%, roughly the strength of Proto Man and remember that Shepard had Mass Effect 2 released about two weeks before the match and that game had Halo 3-like hype. Of course that was in 2010 and with Garrus getting 45% on Sub-Zero and Wrex winning over Cecil unless you want to argue Shepard is not the strongest in his series it is likely he is stronger now.

While we do not have much information on Aerith’s opponents looking at Seifer’s performance I do not think you can call her performance impressive. It is possible Rinoa is stronger than Seifer which can place her at around her 2010 strength. Still watching Knuckles struggling to break 60% on Celes, even in a night match does not give me too much confidence on him and should Knuckles be weaker it makes it less likely for Aerith to be strong.

There is two ways at looking at this match, you can look at the past and see a Mass Effect 2 infused Shepard is only equal to Proto Man and even with Mass Effect 3 it will likely not be enough to win or you can look at the present and see Garrus and to a lesser extent Wrex performing well and should Shepard be stronger that does not give Aerith a lot a room to move around. I am going to go with the latter, a 2010 Aerith is not too far from Sub-Zero and I feel Shepard is able to close the gap. Should Aerith be weaker I feel quite confident that Shepard will win.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Aerith Gainsborough > Commander Shepard and Juliet Starling

charmander6000’s Prediction: Commander Shepard – 45.47%, Aerith Gainsborough – 41.66%, Tharja – 12.87%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#410 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:19:30 AM | message detail | (edited)
Commander Shepard got this. He should have good base votes and will get the anti-FFVII votes. Tharja will get LPF'd
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#411 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/19/2013 7:19:53 AM | message detail
For all you know, the winner could just curb-stomp his/her opponent(s) next match.

Since it looks like we've all decided that Tharja is likely the weakest character in Round 2, who's second weakest? Mr. Game & Watch? Yoshimitsu? Elizabeth?
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#412 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/19/2013 7:24:55 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
For all you know, the winner could just curb-stomp his/her opponent(s) next match.

Since it looks like we've all decided that Tharja is likely the weakest character in Round 2, who's second weakest? Mr. Game & Watch? Yoshimitsu? Elizabeth?



LINK?!!!
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#413 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:26:11 AM | message detail
15_and_counting posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
For all you know, the winner could just curb-stomp his/her opponent(s) next match.

Since it looks like we've all decided that Tharja is likely the weakest character in Round 2, who's second weakest? Mr. Game & Watch? Yoshimitsu? Elizabeth?



LINK?!!!


he meant the match following the next one :kanz
#414 | abdou | Posted 8/19/2013 7:44:55 AM | message detail
people anti vote Aerith? why? because she always win ? >_>

I think Aerith wins this one, Shepard is probably weaker than Garrus (honestly I don't know a single ME fan who likes Shepard more than Garrus)
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#415 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/19/2013 7:45:34 AM | message detail
#416 | Achromatic | Posted 8/19/2013 7:45:48 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
people anti vote Aerith? why? because she always win ? >_>

I think Aerith wins this one, Shepard is probably weaker than Garrus (honestly I don't know a single ME fan who likes Shepard more than Garrus)


Main characters are almost always the strongest rep from their series with only one exception off the top of my head.
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#417 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/19/2013 7:47:07 AM | message detail
Shepard - Crono
Garrus - Magus

I don't know many people who are CT fans who actually prefer Crono over Magus, yet Crono would destroy him in a match.
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#418 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/19/2013 7:48:25 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
abdou posted...
people anti vote Aerith? why? because she always win ? >_>

I think Aerith wins this one, Shepard is probably weaker than Garrus (honestly I don't know a single ME fan who likes Shepard more than Garrus)


Main characters are almost always the strongest rep from their series with only one exception off the top of my head.


Auron and Vivi are absolute locks. There's probably one or two more I'm missing. (Balthier was stronger than Vaan wasn't he?)Kefka is the strongest FF VI rep, GIlgamesh is the strongest FF V rep. Hell, maybe it is just a FF thing. Although Sub and Scorpion are both higher than Liu Kang Im sure.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#419 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/19/2013 7:51:57 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
people anti vote Aerith? why? because she always win ? >_>

I think Aerith wins this one, Shepard is probably weaker than Garrus (honestly I don't know a single ME fan who likes Shepard more than Garrus)


I've gone with Shepard. 2k10 Aeris narrowly beats 2k10 Shepard. Shepard has ME3 since then which is probably enough to swing it even if FF7 hasn't declined
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#420 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/19/2013 7:57:01 AM | message detail
2010 Shepard? The one that was extrapolated through Solid S*** vs Pikachu, lol.

Aeris is definitely stronger than Shepard by a good deal in 2010, however i am confident in ME3 boost and a potential FF7 decline.
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#421 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/19/2013 8:10:04 AM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
2010 Shepard? The one that was extrapolated through Solid S*** vs Pikachu, lol.

Aeris is definitely stronger than Shepard by a good deal in 2010, however i am confident in ME3 boost and a potential FF7 decline.


Yes through Pika/Snake but it's not like we use his raw value. He's been adjusted down accordingly. Using his raw value he wins 52.5/47.5

Lets not forget that 2k10 Aeris is taken through an SFF match and was unadjusted. Most Aeris matches are wonky though. 2k7 was an SFF value and 2k6 was the female bracket. Before that you're in 2k3 doubling Sora territory.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#422 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2013 8:20:52 AM | message detail
hard to adjust going against Auron though I mean if you think she was SFF'd by him, wouldn't that make her ... stronger?
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#423 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:22:58 AM | message detail | (edited)
If Aerith was SFF by Auron it was not by much.

Using a constant Lloyd Shepard was around Proto Man's strength, assuming no SFF 2010 Aerith beats 2010 Shepard 59/41. Shepard has had ME3 since then (though ME2 cooled off), still Garrus and Wrex's performance were pretty good.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#424 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/19/2013 8:24:05 AM | message detail
Lloyd Shepard
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#425 | Dark Silvergun | Posted 8/19/2013 8:24:57 AM | message detail
So, there is a chance that Link may break 60%, currently 59.94%.
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#426 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:27:24 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure I'm going to stick with Shepard but I just have this sick feeling that it's wrong.

Augh. This match. This division.
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#427 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:29:10 AM | message detail
Having problems on what to do with Draven. He should finish last, but if he finds a way to get first a -18 would be a dead blow.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#428 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:32:55 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Having problems on what to do with Draven. He should finish last, but if he finds a way to get first a -18 would be a dead blow.

Yeah, that Draven match is making me feel terrible.

It should be an easy MMX > Ryu > Draven pick but now I feel like everything is on the table in some way.

I disagree that it's a deathblow in Expert if you get a -18 though. I have a really hard time thinking many people flock to Draven in the upper rung of Expert. I'd be more worried/"annoyed" by Ryu > MMX picks coming out way ahead with just a -6.

And even then there's still more matches ahead to get ahead.
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#429 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/19/2013 8:37:21 AM | message detail
if Draven manages first there you may as well have him in the finals.

And I just don't see that happening.
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#430 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/19/2013 8:38:28 AM | message detail
I really like matches where I'm not even sure who I'm going to vote for yet because I love both characters. I'll probably end up voting for whoever is down at the freeze. (So probably Aeris)
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#431 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:42:01 AM | message detail
Draven could win that match and lose to Link, MMX/Ryu will be a lot closer than Link/Shepard so Draven needs less votes to rally.

I estimate he needs around 11-12k rallied votes to win, assuming the rallied people do not support MMX at all. It's possible, but the rally needs to start a lot earlier than in round 1.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#432 | Achromatic | Posted 8/19/2013 8:43:37 AM | message detail
I switched to Aerith because I thought "Let me see Shep actually prove it." Seriously, he has done crap all so far <_<. My expert wants him TO GET THE JOB DONE.

Also Link would brutalize Draven.
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#433 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/19/2013 8:48:09 AM | message detail
I would go with Aerith but her performance(and FF7 performances in general) has made me nervous
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#434 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/19/2013 8:52:17 AM | message detail
#435 | Achromatic | Posted 8/19/2013 8:52:34 AM | message detail
Going with the kawaii nintendo girl
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#436 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:53:43 AM | message detail
Tharja easily
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#437 | swordz9 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:54:38 AM | message detail
It'd be nice to see Tharja win the board vote since she's a lock for last in the match. I'll be voting for her since I don't care about Aerith and never played ME.
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#438 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/19/2013 8:55:16 AM | message detail
Tharja gonna win.
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#439 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/19/2013 8:55:48 AM | message detail
When Tharja beats Shepard, you will all remember who said it first

(Charmander)
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F*** BT
#440 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:00:15 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Commander Shepard
45.45%
5 Votes

Tharja
18.18%
2 Votes

Aerith Gainsborough
36.36%
4 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 11
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POKEFEAR
#441 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/19/2013 9:00:25 AM | message detail
Commander Shepard
38.46%
10 Votes

Tharja
19.23%
5 Votes

Aerith Gainsborough
42.31%
11 Votes
Your Pick
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*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#442 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:00:32 AM | message detail
Commander Shepard
39.13%
9 Votes
Tharja

17.39%
4 Votes

Aerith Gainsborough
43.48%
10 Votes
Your Pick

Total Votes: 23
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#443 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:00:35 AM | message detail
You're all dead...


Commander Shepard
40.91%
9 Votes

Tharja
18.18%
4 Votes

Aerith Gainsborough
40.91%
9 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#444 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:04 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Commander Shepard
40.46%
53 Votes

Tharja
21.37%
28 Votes
Your Pick

Aerith Gainsborough
38.17%
50 Votes
Total Votes: 131
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#445 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:05 AM | message detail
Sheperd with the bracket votes.
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#446 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:17 AM | message detail
Look at the Tharja board vote go
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#447 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:33 AM | message detail
#448 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:49 AM | message detail
lol Shepard
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 65/81 Today's Picks: Link and Aerith
#449 | xp1337 | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:49 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Sheperd with the bracket votes.

Is Shepard favored?

I mean among casuals he probably is, but here?
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#450 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 9:01:56 AM | message detail
ugh shepard really
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