Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1116

#301 | tgs2 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:52:31 PM | message detail
Link won't even let the site stand in his way to victory this year
#302 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/18/2013 9:52:41 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
People are so excited to vote for Link they are literally breaking the site


Doesn't surprise me with the length of round 1. People have been waiting for this moment for weeks :p
#303 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/18/2013 9:53:32 PM | message detail
Also has the poll stopped updating?
#304 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 9:55:01 PM | message detail
Yoshi below 19% now.
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#305 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 9:55:38 PM | message detail
So, what do people think Raiden ends at from here? And what percentage do you think this implies he'd score on Link 1v1? Remember for good measure that Alucard 28% on Link last contest, so getting close to that implies a Raiden very close to 'card or a Link drop...

While you're at it for interest's sake (or while you're waiting for the site if it goes down again), what percentages do you think these theoretical finals look like?:

Link/Snake/Mario
Link/Cloud/Mario
Link/Cloud/Charizard
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#306 | vcharon | Posted 8/18/2013 9:55:40 PM | message detail
8 straight updates with a percentage loss for Yoshi
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#307 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 9:55:44 PM | message detail
The poll just updated. It happened about a minute later than usual since the poll couldn't update during the downtime, so the 12:50 AM update should have happened at 12:49 AM but the site was still down at that time.
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#308 | pjbasis | Posted 8/18/2013 9:58:27 PM | message detail
If Shepard, X, Vincent, and Big Boss win I'll be in tip top shape so
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#309 | Achromatic | Posted 8/18/2013 9:58:45 PM | message detail
Well the Yoshi vote split wouldn't be very kind to Raiden, I am thinking he ends up with maybe 25% directly on Link? Maybe a little higher. So a good 3% away from 'card leaving room for a little Link drop.

Link/Snake/Mario - 40/35/25
Link/Cloud/Mario - 39/37/24
Link/Cloud/Charizard 45/42/13
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#310 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/18/2013 10:00:12 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
But yeah uh people should expect Link to make the bottom third of the bracket look pitiful. Even Charizard if he manages to make it. The mere presence of Cloud/Snake is going to cause abandonment complexes that years of therapy won't fix. Nintendo has no loyalty to anyone but Link. Not even to spare a measly two percent to put Yoshi over Raiden - none.


NintenFAQs is a sham. One that was invented to mask the true champions of this battle.
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#311 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:01:09 PM | message detail
You know what's a real sham? If Draven wins his match against X and Ryu. I think this contest is pretty much done at that point.
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#312 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:01:10 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Well the Yoshi vote split wouldn't be very kind to Raiden, I am thinking he ends up with maybe 25% directly on Link? Maybe a little higher. So a good 3% away from 'card leaving room for a little Link drop.

Link/Snake/Mario - 40/35/25
Link/Cloud/Mario - 39/37/24
Link/Cloud/Charizard 45/42/13


Predicting Mario to avoid distorted SFF, you are a braver and better man than me
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#313 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:01:27 PM | message detail
Link/Snake/Mario - 44/40/16
Link/Cloud/Mario - 43/39/18
Link/Cloud/Charizard - 44/35/21

those were all wild guesses, I feel like Mario does better with Cloud because Link fans can't possibly still feel threatened by Cloud
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#314 | tgs2 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:01:39 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
So, what do people think Raiden ends at from here? And what percentage do you think this implies he'd score on Link 1v1? Remember for good measure that Alucard 28% on Link last contest, so getting close to that implies a Raiden very close to 'card or a Link drop...

While you're at it for interest's sake (or while you're waiting for the site if it goes down again), what percentages do you think these theoretical finals look like?:

Link/Snake/Mario
Link/Cloud/Mario
Link/Cloud/Charizard



40%/42%/18% - Save_us_Snake

45%/35%/20% - because FF always wins guys.

37%/32%/30% - I'm tempted to take Charizard > Cloud just based off of the fact that there's bound to be a gigantic coordinated effort by some of the pokemon fansites if the ZARD makes the final over Mario.
#315 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:02:17 PM | message detail
First hour X-Stats!

Link – 50.00%
Raiden – 26.84%
Yoshi – 24.14%
Waluigi – 23.66%
Isaac BOI – 17.45%
Solaire of Astora – 14.18%
Tingle – 14.14%
Alan Wake – 9.72%
Demi-Fiend – 9.63%
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#316 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 10:02:35 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 8/19/2013 12:55:44 AM | #307
The poll just updated. It happened about a minute later than usual since the poll couldn't update during the downtime, so the 12:50 AM update should have happened at 12:49 AM but the site was still down at that time.

is the poll actually updating later now, or just cn's site?
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#317 | Achromatic | Posted 8/18/2013 10:03:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Well the Yoshi vote split wouldn't be very kind to Raiden, I am thinking he ends up with maybe 25% directly on Link? Maybe a little higher. So a good 3% away from 'card leaving room for a little Link drop.

Link/Snake/Mario - 40/35/25
Link/Cloud/Mario - 39/37/24
Link/Cloud/Charizard 45/42/13


Predicting Mario to avoid distorted SFF, you are a braver and better man than me


I think Mario is a bit sturdier than he used to be. He's still going to get taken to task a bit but Mario can hold up. I might have put him a little too high but it'd be close.
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#318 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:03:45 PM | message detail
Dammit stupid site going down robbing Waluigi of his place over Yoshi in the first hour

get your ass into gear Raiden
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#319 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/18/2013 10:04:06 PM | message detail
Ok, now let's ignore ya'lls never happening hypotheticals, and get the percentage for this.


Link Cloud MegaMan
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#320 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:04:54 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
I think Mario is a bit sturdier than he used to be.


Mario has been doing consistently worse against Link as time passes...!
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#321 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/18/2013 10:05:32 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
You know what's a real sham? If Draven wins his match against X and Ryu. I think this contest is pretty much done at that point.


If that happens, I'm taking the plunge and playing LoL.
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#322 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 10:05:40 PM | message detail
So how many more updates until Yoshi is losing to Waluigi in the stats?
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#323 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 10:06:07 PM | message detail
From: 15_and_counting | Posted: 8/19/2013 1:04:06 AM | #319
Ok, now let's ignore ya'lls never happening hypotheticals, and get the percentage for this.


Link Cloud MegaMan

35/29/36
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#324 | Surskit | Posted 8/18/2013 10:06:16 PM | message detail
Oh dear, Yoshi might actually end up below Waluigi in the x-stats. I don't want to live in this planet anymore.
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#325 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/18/2013 10:06:23 PM | message detail
Sooo,

anyone got any positive talking points for Shepard > Aeris?
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#326 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:07:17 PM | message detail
Surskit posted...
Oh dear, Yoshi might actually end up below Waluigi in the x-stats. I don't want to live in this planet anymore.


Favorite Mario Character poll has been FLIPPED ON ITS HEAD
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#327 | xp1337 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:07:39 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
Sooo,

anyone got any positive talking points for Shepard > Aeris?

Wrex > Cecil/Pit?

Not sure what I'm going to do in that match yet.
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#328 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/18/2013 10:08:27 PM | message detail
Luigi was obviously the real anchor on the Luigi/Waluigi team in the Rivalry Rumble.
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#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:08:40 PM | message detail
Garrus and Wrex both showed decent strength, and Shepard is almost sure to be noticeably stronger than both. FFVII has looked fairly lackluster so far.

If Shepard fails here, we might as well forget about ever having new characters do decently in these contests.
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#330 | pjbasis | Posted 8/18/2013 10:09:52 PM | message detail
I think what we have to start talking about here is Quote factor.

Raiden is winning because he sounds like a badass
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#331 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:10:04 PM | message detail
I'd love to see Aeris win that match but Shepard is going to rock it. CHANGE HER NAME BACK BACON
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#332 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:11:14 PM | message detail
Darn it Yoshi why are you cutting after the Power Hour has ended

Get down below Waluigi where you belong
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#333 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:11:47 PM | message detail
suddenly, unexpected Yoshi rallies and we have a close match

(if only)
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#334 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:11:49 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
I think what we have to start talking about here is Quote factor.


"OBJECTION!" guarantees Phoenix > Mewtwo
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#335 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/18/2013 10:13:44 PM | message detail
Waluigi > Yoshi might actually happen...oh boy.

I could see Raiden close to Alucard. He probably beats Rydia, anyway.
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#336 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:14:32 PM | message detail
*Looks at poll*

HYLIAN
HAMMER


Man, feels good to watch some more Link dominance even if it costs me points in the Expert challenge!

kinsho3 posted...
You know what's a real sham? If Draven wins his match against X and Ryu. I think this contest is pretty much done at that point.


Jeeze, so much negativity! Wait until the match starts (and the SUPER GAMEFAQS LEVEL POCKET STUFFER does work and swings 50k votes for Draven lol) before complaining! We don't know what's going to happen yet. Nobody does!
#337 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:15:32 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Waluigi > Yoshi might actually happen...oh boy.

I could see Raiden close to Alucard. He probably beats Rydia, anyway.


Man, that would be quite the fall for 'card, and I already think he's overrated (though I suppose we'll see a validation of his strength this round). I suppose it'll be more prudent to wait and see what Raiden can do with the night vote before making proclamations one way or the other.
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#338 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:16:45 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
You know what's a real sham? If Draven wins his match against X and Ryu. I think this contest is pretty much done at that point.


yeah guys, Link isn't even making it out of his division /kanz
#339 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:17:33 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
*Looks at poll*

HYLIAN
HAMMER


Man, feels good to watch some more Link dominance even if it costs me points in the Expert challenge!

kinsho3 posted...
You know what's a real sham? If Draven wins his match against X and Ryu. I think this contest is pretty much done at that point.


Jeeze, so much negativity! Wait until the match starts (and the SUPER GAMEFAQS LEVEL POCKET STUFFER does work and swings 50k votes for Draven lol) before complaining! We don't know what's going to happen yet. Nobody does!


oh there he is!
KILL HIM
#340 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:17:48 PM | message detail
Go Aeris!

*looks at the time*

Damn it!
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#341 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 10:18:33 PM | message detail
From: KanzarisKelshen | Posted: 8/19/2013 1:14:32 AM | #336
Man, feels good to watch some more Link dominance even if it costs me points in the Expert challenge!

what, you didn't pick Link to win?
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#342 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:19:56 PM | message detail
Yeah if Aeris can beat Shepard in a day match it'll look pretty good for FF7, and be one of the first good matches she's had in a long time.

Won't even necessarily be bad for Shepard if FF7 can have a rebound, though obviously he'd like to actually pull off a good win against a strong opponent. That's still Dante's hump, after all.
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#343 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:20:30 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: KanzarisKelshen | Posted: 8/19/2013 1:14:32 AM | #336
Man, feels good to watch some more Link dominance even if it costs me points in the Expert challenge!

what, you didn't pick Link to win?


No, I meant that I picked Yoshi for second but Link ruined that by laying down the LAW.

1337gamerpr0 posted...

yeah guys, Link isn't even making it out of his division /kanz


1337gamerpr0 posted...
oh there he is!
KILL HIM


NOT TODAY, 2FAST!
#344 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 10:22:04 PM | message detail
From: KanzarisKelshen | Posted: 8/19/2013 1:20:30 AM | #343
No, I meant that I picked Yoshi for second but Link ruined that by laying down the LAW.

i realize that, but Link was going to dominate regardless of the order of the other two
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#345 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:23:12 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: KanzarisKelshen | Posted: 8/19/2013 1:20:30 AM | #343
No, I meant that I picked Yoshi for second but Link ruined that by laying down the LAW.

i realize that, but Link was going to dominate regardless of the order of the other two


Yeah, but the question is if he was going to show that he hasn't lost a step. So far, this performance says that if he has, it's a really, really minor thing.
#346 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 10:27:55 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Xuxon posted...
From: KanzarisKelshen | Posted: 8/19/2013 1:20:30 AM | #343
No, I meant that I picked Yoshi for second but Link ruined that by laying down the LAW.

i realize that, but Link was going to dominate regardless of the order of the other two


Yeah, but the question is if he was going to show that he hasn't lost a step. So far, this performance says that if he has, it's a really, really minor thing.


Hey, right now this Yoshi-leeched Link is projected to lose to Cloud and Snake based on Raiden's percentage if you believe in 4-way x-sta- BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA oh man phew what was I talking about
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#347 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:29:01 PM | message detail
hey now the 2008 X-Stats predicted Alucard/Magus within a quarter of a percent
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#348 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:29:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
hey now the 2008 X-Stats predicted Alucard/Magus within a quarter of a percent


LeonStatz don't count! Those were doctored by an Ace Predictor!
#349 | Achromatic | Posted 8/18/2013 10:29:57 PM | message detail
Don't forget about Raiden not boosting too.
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#350 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:31:05 PM | message detail
Yeeeeeesssss Yoshi continue your downward spiral
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