Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1116

#101 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:50:23 PM | message detail
Match LXXXII: (1) Link vs. (6) Raiden vs. (9) Yoshi

Previous Round

Link – 72.67%
Isaac – 15.36%
Tingle – 11.97%

Raiden – 49.77%
Waluigi – 39.22%
Alan Wake – 11.01%

Yoshi – 60.05%
Solaire of Astora – 24.99%
Demi-Fiend – 14.96%

Analysis

The beginning of round 2 starts with Link. While he may not be breaking 60% on everyone outside of Cloud and Sephiroth anymore he is still our strongest character. He was not able to SFF Tingle by much, whether people joke voted for Tingle or Link is even weaker this contest remains to be seen.

I was not impressed with Raiden’s performance, even before the rally Waluigi had around 40% on him. I would have thought he would be stronger given Metal Gear Rising has been released and while we do not have any information on Waluigi it is hard to imagine him being around Peach or Wario’s strength. Still there is no reason for Raiden to be weaker so it is likely I just underestimated Waluigi.

In a normal match Yoshi would have no issue winning over Raiden, but with Link expected to SFF him Raiden has become the favourite for second. The only way I can see Yoshi win is if smart voters strike again. We have seen Nintendo fans abandon a character in order to try to save another character from losing and since it is so obvious that Link will win maybe voters will vote Yoshi instead and dampen the effects of SFF.

On the other hand there is no reason to try to get Yoshi to second as only first place advances though the only character to have held back SFF decently that I can think of was Tingle so there might be some truth to that. It is more likely that Yoshi will get some SFF and while he may not get completely crushed by Link it will not be enough to take second.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Link > Raiden and Yoshi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Link – 55.34%, Raiden – 24.47%, Yoshi – 20.19%
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#102 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:52:19 PM | message detail
(on a random note, I want a Game of the Generation contest)

I would rather have a third game contest
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#103 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 6:52:49 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
also I thought the worst vote totals ever were here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1

:P


That poll happened when GameFAQs had far less traffic back then. Even with our vote totals right now, they are still better than polls from 2001 and earlier. The last time any poll got less than 10000 votes while being on the front page was a poll from 11/27/2001.
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#104 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:55:50 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
(on a random note, I want a Game of the Generation contest)

I would rather have a third game contest


well sure, it'd be interesting to see where FF7 is now (I suspect it's dropped quite a bit)

-LusterSoldier- posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
also I thought the worst vote totals ever were here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1

:P


That poll happened when GameFAQs had far less traffic back then. Even with our vote totals right now, they are still better than polls from 2001 and earlier. The last time any poll got less than 10000 votes while being on the front page was a poll from 11/27/2001.


.....why did you even respond to this seriously
#105 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/18/2013 7:17:19 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
This match is looking like it will finish around 16000 votes. That would be about 14000 votes in a night match and 24000 votes in a 24-hour match.

At least these vote totals aren't as bad as this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4965

That was the worst poll we ever had and it was a 24-hour poll. At first, I wasn't sure if it was going to break 10000 votes since there only 989 votes at the end of the first hour. The poll managed to break 10000 votes with about 30 minutes left in the poll.


yeah, but that's a poll featuring reviews that most of the site hasn't ever seen
circumstances are quite different there

(on a random note, I want a Game of the Generation contest)


I don't think most people on the site know Chester, Caim or Spring Breeze Dancin' either. <_<
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#106 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 7:26:24 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
I don't think most people on the site know Chester, Caim or Spring Breeze Dancin' either. <_<


but we are in the middle of a Character Battle, I bet if you plugged in the review poll in this spot it'd do better than barely breaking 10k
#107 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 7:32:40 PM | message detail
also, now 4900 votes behind
what if these votals become the norm several years later *gasp*
#108 | JJH777 | Posted 8/18/2013 7:34:36 PM | message detail
So spring breeze dancing really isn't beating Chester by that much. Doesn't this make Mewtwo look pretty godly based on ridley?
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#109 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 7:35:12 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
what if these votals become the norm several years later *gasp*


Unlikely.

I don't think vote totals are going to get even worse than they are right now since average vote totals have remained fairly steady around 40000 votes for every month since June of 2012. So I think we've hit rock bottom now and vote totals shouldn't be getting any worse than they are right now.
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#110 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 7:35:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, you should definitely expect Mewtwo to win the contest now
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#111 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 7:39:55 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I think Yoshi's at the bottom of the Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi trio but, uh, I'd be real scared of him in a triple threat all-Nintendo match like that. That's the kind of wacky mixing that I could see him come on top in - it's not like we don't have precedence.


Yeah, Yoshi has won two Favorite Mario Character polls in the past, so if you make it a 3-way Nintendo fest, Yoshi could take first there. Yoshi is probably the most "independent" of the three inasmuch as three Mario characters can be independent of one another.
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#112 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 8/18/2013 7:43:26 PM | message detail
I still don't get the appeal to Yoshi. Like, I don't dislike him, but I always find myself shocked when I remember that he's consistently one of the strongest non-N9 characters. Where does that strength come from?
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#113 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/18/2013 7:43:57 PM | message detail
He's a lovable green dino.
#114 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 7:44:09 PM | message detail
If we had more females on this site, I'd say "women."

But other than that, I dunno.

I wish we had more women on this site. Squall would have been a Noble Niner from day 1 with a higher female population...!
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#115 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/18/2013 7:45:15 PM | message detail
CasanovaZelos posted...
I still don't get the appeal to Yoshi. Like, I don't dislike him, but I always find myself shocked when I remember that he's consistently one of the strongest non-N9 characters. Where does that strength come from?


I think he is one of those characters it's impossible to dislike.
#116 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 7:49:25 PM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
CasanovaZelos posted...
I still don't get the appeal to Yoshi. Like, I don't dislike him, but I always find myself shocked when I remember that he's consistently one of the strongest non-N9 characters. Where does that strength come from?


I think he is one of those characters it's impossible to dislike.


I dislike Yoshi! Bowser is awesome and full of style but Yoshi is just really lame.

He's also not really that strong. He's a clear step below Luigi and Bowser in his performances, especially lately. The fact that he couldn't place in the Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match is an embarrassment he's had a hard time shaking.
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#117 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 7:50:02 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Yoshi/Bowser/Luigi semis confirmed
(that match would be hilarious though)


I would like to see that as our second bonus match. I know Bowser isn't going to be eliminated in round 2 like Yoshi and probably Luigi as well, but that bonus match won't be useful for any kind of SFF adjustments and it's not going to provide us with any kind of stats to predict round 3 and beyond.
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#118 | YoboD | Posted 8/18/2013 8:02:02 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
CasanovaZelos posted...
I still don't get the appeal to Yoshi. Like, I don't dislike him, but I always find myself shocked when I remember that he's consistently one of the strongest non-N9 characters. Where does that strength come from?


I think he is one of those characters it's impossible to dislike.


I dislike Yoshi! Bowser is awesome and full of style but Yoshi is just really lame.

He's also not really that strong. He's a clear step below Luigi and Bowser in his performances, especially lately. The fact that he couldn't place in the Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match is an embarrassment he's had a hard time shaking.


That match happened five years ago, seems weird to use it as an example of his recent strength. It's not like we can tell how strong he's been lately, he faced unknowns in round 1 this year and was behind MissingNo last contest. You never know, he may have even gotten a boost from Galaxy 2 considering it was his first major role since Sunshine.

That said I'm a huge Yoshi fan, so I'm probably just coming up with excuses.
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#119 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 8:03:07 PM | message detail
Well, you'll still have an excuse after this year, too, regardless of what happens!
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#120 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/18/2013 8:04:33 PM | message detail
Yoshi's had some stuff since we last saw him even in 2010... the same way DK has.
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#121 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 8:06:00 PM | message detail
The difference is that Yoshi always has stuff in between contests. DKCR was DK's first significant release since these contests began.
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#122 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 8:09:33 PM | message detail
YoboD posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
CasanovaZelos posted...
I still don't get the appeal to Yoshi. Like, I don't dislike him, but I always find myself shocked when I remember that he's consistently one of the strongest non-N9 characters. Where does that strength come from?


I think he is one of those characters it's impossible to dislike.


I dislike Yoshi! Bowser is awesome and full of style but Yoshi is just really lame.

He's also not really that strong. He's a clear step below Luigi and Bowser in his performances, especially lately. The fact that he couldn't place in the Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match is an embarrassment he's had a hard time shaking.


That match happened five years ago, seems weird to use it as an example of his recent strength. It's not like we can tell how strong he's been lately, he faced unknowns in round 1 this year and was behind MissingNo last contest. You never know, he may have even gotten a boost from Galaxy 2 considering it was his first major role since Sunshine.

That said I'm a huge Yoshi fan, so I'm probably just coming up with excuses.


It's our second most recent contest, but obviously the point is well-taken - Yoshi could be stronger. He's historically never really been *that* strong, and was probably one of the characters that benefited the least from the Nintendo Boost. His best performance ever is probably his 50/50 win over Dante when Nintendo was having a huge year and Dante was saddled with a DMC2 pic to boot, though obviously opinions on that impact differ.

I wouldn't even call him a Top 20 character though. I'd take all the Noble Nine, MMX, the Square near-elites (Vincent, Tifa, Squall, Auron), Luigi, Bowser, Kirby, Ganondorf, Zelda, and Charizard all over him without so much as blinking, and I'd consider a lot of lesser upsets over him too.
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#123 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/18/2013 8:27:33 PM | message detail
I'm a little suspicious of Yoshi because of his Round 1 performance failing to completely wreck Solaire and Demi-Fiend, neither of which has any reason to be decent. But platformer characters have impressed almost without exception (Mario, Luigi, Donkey Kong, Sonic, Mega Man, X, Zero, Crash, Spyro, Jak) so it would be weird for Yoshi to not follow suit. I'm still taking Raiden over him because Link, so it looks like Yoshi is going to be obscured another year.
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#124 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/18/2013 8:32:10 PM | message detail
My favorite part of the contest is back. Voting for Link with gusto.
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#125 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 8:33:17 PM | message detail
I'm just happy I can make new X-Stats, even if the stats this match spits out will be completely useless!
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#126 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 8:35:58 PM | message detail
I'd suggest we might be able to glean something comparing this match to Link/Luigi... but, nope, SFF will probably be distorted. If Yoshi does okay it'd be at least something, though.
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#127 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/18/2013 8:39:33 PM | message detail
Ugh, why am I 50/50 on second place.. I'm trying to give myself a good reason for either one.
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#128 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/18/2013 8:54:26 PM | message detail
Aye....this is a tough one. I'll stick with Yoshi, but it should be a close match regardless.
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#129 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/18/2013 8:56:21 PM | message detail
I can't get over Raiden's lackluster performance on Walugi, rally be damned.
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Drop it to the floor...
#130 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 8:56:33 PM | message detail
I think Link being anti-voted more is going to benefit Yoshi since those anti-votes have to go somewhere. Yoshi should get most of Link's anti-votes.
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#131 | AxemRedRanger (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/18/2013 8:56:47 PM | message detail
Oh god guys I just figured something out.

This match is for LAST PLACE.

Meaning that since Caim won this one he's the weakest character and for the stats instead of him doubling Chester and SBD, you need to have Chester and Dancin' doubling him!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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#132 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 8:57:31 PM | message detail
Link would win a last place contest too

>_>
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#133 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 8:59:12 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I think Link being anti-voted more is going to benefit Yoshi since those anti-votes have to go somewhere. Yoshi should get most of Link's anti-votes.


...really? Anti-votes should go to non-Nintendo entities, I'd think. *Maybe* not Raiden per se since he's also a pretty decent anti-vote magnet, but I don't see the double antivote coming into play here.
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#134 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 8:59:21 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I think Link being anti-voted more is going to benefit Yoshi since those anti-votes have to go somewhere. Yoshi should get most of Link's anti-votes.


If you're anti-voting Link, why are you going to another Nintendo option?

That's generally not how the Nintendo hierarchy operates. If you're part of the hierarchy, you're voting for Link.

If not, you're voting for Raiden.
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#135 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:03 PM | message detail
I'm a nintendo fan and I'm voting for Yoshi
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POKEFEAR
#136 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:20 PM | message detail
#137 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:23 PM | message detail
Yoshi!


Link
44.44%
4 Votes

Raiden
11.11%
1 Votes

Yoshi
44.44%
4 Votes
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#138 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Link
38.57%
27 Votes

Raiden
31.43%
22 Votes

Yoshi
30%
21 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 70
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POKEFEAR
#139 | paulg235 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:35 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Link
32.14%
9 Votes
Raiden
28.57%
8 Votes
Yoshi
39.29%
11 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 28
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#140 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:35 PM | message detail
hahaha that anti link board vote
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#141 | ZFS | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:39 PM | message detail
Link
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#142 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:44 PM | message detail
Cloud and Sephiroth are shaking their heads at Link right now
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#143 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:46 PM | message detail
Link
33.33%
10 Votes

Raiden
26.67%
8 Votes

Yoshi
40%
12 Votes
Your Pick

Total Votes: 30
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#144 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 9:00:59 PM | message detail
Link

He forgot to come to town
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#145 | xp1337 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
hahaha that anti link board vote

That was pretty incredible!
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#146 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 9:01:09 PM | message detail
Raiden already in the lead
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#147 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 9:01:29 PM | message detail
From: xp1337 | Posted: 8/19/2013 12:01:00 AM | #145
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
hahaha that anti link board vote

That was pretty incredible!

was?
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#148 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 9:01:38 PM | message detail
Link already over 50%
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#149 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/18/2013 9:01:41 PM | message detail
Cmon Yoshi
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#150 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/18/2013 9:01:48 PM | message detail
I caved in and took Raiden...
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