Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1116

#51 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:06:49 PM | message detail
aww yeah round 2 starts in under 5 hours!
....with Link murdering as usual
#52 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 4:09:05 PM | message detail
Well, a Link beasting is interesting to see at least. He may have recovered from his 2010 down year (insomuch as Link can have a down year) or may be even more off. This match won't be that reliable (thanks Yoshi), but at least it's not pure SFF like half his 2010 matches were.
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#53 | creativename | Posted 8/18/2013 4:09:57 PM | message detail
Holy mother of god these vote totals...
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#54 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:11:30 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Holy mother of god these vote totals...


3000 behind Lugia's match, which had the lowest votals of round 1 (as a night match, too!)
#55 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:13:26 PM | message detail
I'm still kind of amazed this poll is a thing

maybe it will scare away all the Link fans and he'll lose tomorrow
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#56 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 4:14:01 PM | message detail
Year of Yoshi
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#57 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:15:16 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Year of Yoshi


Yoshi/Bowser/Luigi semis confirmed
(that match would be hilarious though)
#58 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:19:05 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Year of Yoshi


Yoshi/Bowser/Luigi semis confirmed
(that match would be hilarious though)


We really need to get that match to be the second bonus match.
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#59 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:20:55 PM | message detail
End of round stats.

Round 2 Characters by Game/Series
Final Fantasy - 14 (Aerith, Auron, Barret, Cloud, Gilgamesh, Kefka, Rikku, Sephiroth, Squall, Tifa, Vincent, Vivi, Yuna, Zidane)
Pokemon - 8 (Blue, Charizard, Lugia, Mewtwo, Missingno, Pikachu, Red, Squirtle)
Final Fantasy VII - 6 (Aerith, Barret, Cloud, Sephiroth, Tifa, Vincent)
Super Mario - 5 (Bowser, Luigi, Mario, Wario, Yoshi)
Metal Gear - 4 (Big Boss, Raiden, Solid Snake, The Boss)
The Legend of Zelda - 4 (Epona, Ganondorf, Link, Zelda)
Chrono Trigger - 3 (Crono, Frog, Magus)
Final Fantasy X - 3 (Auron, Rikku, Yuna)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 3 (Knuckles, Shadow, Sonic)
Assassin's Creed - 2 (Altair, Ezio)
Castlevania - 2 (Alucard, Dracula)
Final Fantasy IX - 2 (Vivi, Zidane)
Fire Emblem - 2 (Ike, Tharja)
Mass Effect - 2 (Shepard, Wrex)
Mega Man X - 2 (Mega Man X, Zero)
Portal - 2 (GlaDOS, Weighted Companion Cube)
Resident Evil - 2 (Jill, Leon)
Bayonetta - 1 (Bayonetta)
Bioshock - 1 (Elizabeth)
Catherine - 1 (Catherine)
Crash Bandicoot - 1 (Crash)
Darkstalkers - 1 (Morrigan)
Devil May Cry - 1 (Dante)
Donkey Kong - 1 (Donkey Kong)
Earthbound - 1 (Ness)
Final Fantasy V - 1 (Gilgamesh)
Final Fantasy VI - 1 (Kefka)
Final Fantasy VIII - 1 (Squall)
Game & Watch - 1 (Mr. Game & Watch)
God of War - 1 (Kratos)
Half-Life - 1 (Gordon Freeman)
Kingdom Hearts - 1 (Sora)
Kirby - 1 (Kirby)
League of Legends - 1 (Draven)
Mega Man - 1 (Mega Man)
Metroid - 1 (Samus)
Mortal Kombat - 1 (Sub-Zero)
Okami - 1 (Amaterasu)
Phoenix Wright - 1 (Phoenix Wright)
Spyro the Dragon - 1 (Spyro the Dragon)
Street Fighter - 1 (Ryu)
Tekken - 1 (Yoshimitsu)
Tetris - 1 (L-Block)
The Elder Scrolls - 1 (Dragonborn)
Tomb Raider - 1 (Lara Croft)
Uncharted - 1 (Nathan Drake)

Round 2 Characters by Main Companies
Nintendo - 24 (Blue, Bowser, Charizard, Donkey Kong, Epona, Ganondorf, Ike, Kirby, Link, Lugia, Luigi, Mario, Mewtwo, Missingno, Mr. Game & Watch, Ness, Pikachu, Red, Samus, Squirtle, Tharja, Wario, Yoshi, Zelda)
Square - 19 (Aerith, Auron, Barret, Cloud, Crono, Frog, Gilgamesh, Kefka, Lara Croft, Magus, Rikku, Sephiroth, Sora, Squall, Tifa, Vincent, Vivi, Yuna, Zidane)
Capcom - 10 (Amaterasu, Dante, Jill, Leon, Mega Man, Mega Man X, Morrigan, Phoenix Wright, Ryu, Zero)
Konami - 6 (Alucard, Big Boss, Dracula, Raiden, Solid Snake, The Boss)
Sega - 3 (Knuckles, Shadow, Sonic)
Sony - 3 (Crash, Kratos, Nathan Drake)
Valve - 3 (GlaDOS, Gordon Freeman, Weighted Companion Cube)
BioWare - 2 (Shepard, Wrex)
Ubisoft - 2 (Altair, Ezio)
Other - 9 (Bayonetta, Catherine, Dragonborn, Draven, Elizabeth, L-Block, Spyro, Sub-Zero, Yoshimitsu)
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 64/80 Today's Picks: Charizard
#60 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:25:47 PM | message detail
Nintendo and Square still making up over half of the remaining total!
#61 | creativename | Posted 8/18/2013 4:37:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
So anyone wanna play a game of guessing the Quotes for round 2?

Mario: "It's-a me, Mario!!"

Bowser: "Did somebody page the king of awesome?" or "Kidnapping Peach? Oh, that is so completely my move!"

Luigi: "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

Crono: "..." [obviously]

Magus: "The black wind howls..."

Frog: I'd think "Lower thine guard and thou'rt allowing the enemy in", but that's way too long.

Dracula: "What is a man?"

Morrigan: "It's rough sometimes...Just stay on your back."

Sephiroth: Maybe something about "Puppets" or "Mother!!"

Cloud: "Let's mosey."

Tifa: "Dilly-dally, shilly-shally"

Sonic: "You're too slow!"
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#62 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:39:48 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
So anyone wanna play a game of guessing the Quotes for round 2?

Mario: "It's-a me, Mario!!"

Bowser: "Did somebody page the king of awesome?" or "Kidnapping Peach? Oh, that is so completely my move!"

Luigi: "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

Crono: "..." [obviously]

Magus: "The black wind howls..."

Frog: I'd think "Lower thine guard and thou'rt allowing the enemy in", but that's way too long.

Dracula: "What is a man?"

Morrigan: "It's rough sometimes...Just stay on your back."

Sephiroth: Maybe something about "Puppets" or "Mother!!"

Cloud: "Let's mosey."

Tifa: "Dilly-dally, shilly-shally"

Sonic: "You're too slow!"
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It's the quotes from the character descriptions. Unfortunately, most of those quotes are horrible.
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#63 | creativename | Posted 8/18/2013 4:40:37 PM | message detail
Oh. Well that's no fun.
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#64 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/18/2013 4:41:08 PM | message detail
Yoshi/Luigi/Bowser would be an expert death match. How on Earth do you predict that?
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#65 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 4:42:32 PM | message detail
Luigi>Bowser>Yoshi

Bowser's beaten Yoshi, newly-improved Luigi has beaten Bowser.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#66 | CP724 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:42:49 PM | message detail
Squall "Whatever..."
#67 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/18/2013 4:44:48 PM | message detail
Yoshi > Bowser > Luigi

because why not.
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Points: 64/80 Today's Picks: Charizard
#68 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 4:48:31 PM | message detail
I think Yoshi's lost a step, anyway. His results in 2008 were pretty bad, and he had a pretty underwhelming Round 1 performance this year.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#69 | LOLContests | Posted 8/18/2013 4:50:46 PM | message detail
Some of the quotes from the character descriptions might be too long, although I suppose they might just be truncated.
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#70 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 4:51:24 PM | message detail
I think Yoshi's at the bottom of the Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi trio but, uh, I'd be real scared of him in a triple threat all-Nintendo match like that. That's the kind of wacky mixing that I could see him come on top in - it's not like we don't have precedence.
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#71 | ZFS | Posted 8/18/2013 4:52:27 PM | message detail
Luigi > Bowser > Yoshi looks right.
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#72 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/18/2013 5:00:08 PM | message detail
Does this match just proves how much lol the "lol xstats" can be...?
Someone gave the example that according to this,Mewtwo triples Zidane
Of course it might not happen in a real contest because the more rounds= the more accrurate the stats and a match between 3 uber fodder will never happen (can happen if a weak character gets overseeded and face against 2 low seeds that are week,but chances are low)
#73 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/18/2013 5:03:15 PM | message detail
I'm looking at the round 2 matches and...

I'm scared. I think my bracket is going to waste after this round.
#74 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:04:00 PM | message detail
Yes, the extrapolated standings are just a guideline - and things can easily mess them up. Most people know this. Heck, even in matches that look super clean the x-stats might not be reliable. Magus got 35% on Link for reasons we're still not really sure about, in a direct match!
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#75 | Achromatic | Posted 8/18/2013 5:04:34 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yes, the extrapolated standings are just a guideline - and things can easily mess them up. Most people know this. Heck, even in matches that look super clean the x-stats might not be reliable. Magus got 35% on Link for reasons we're still not really sure about, in a direct match!


Because he was that strong that year!
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#76 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 5:05:06 PM | message detail
I'm going to hold on to these x-stats for the moment so I can say Lucina>Zidane....!
#77 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:06:11 PM | message detail
Failing to double Sam Fisher, what a pillar of strength
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#78 | Achromatic | Posted 8/18/2013 5:08:37 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Failing to double Sam Fisher, what a pillar of strength


Because Sam Fisher was that strong that year!
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#79 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:09:31 PM | message detail
Everyone who was extrapolated through Magus was strong in 2003

and then they all weakened equally

I like this theory
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#80 | Achromatic | Posted 8/18/2013 5:12:06 PM | message detail
Ganondorf didn't weaken equally <_<.
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#81 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 5:15:33 PM | message detail
3353 votes behind the Lugia match!
#82 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:18:03 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Ganondorf didn't weaken equally <_<.


He did if you go by Alucard in 2004 - he actually only got a touch more on Alucard than Sora did the next year. He's just hidden by Link SFF. Ganondorf boosted in 2005 with the rest of the Nintendo crew, which helped to obscure his overrating for a time.
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#83 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/18/2013 5:20:27 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Despite it being a day match, Raiden was killing Waluigi in all the time zones where a rally wasn't taking place. If you remove the rally, then his result gets pretty close to what Shepard got on Olimar. I think it's a sneakily impressive result that should prove itself tomorrow.


I don't think that's true. Did some quick math right now....I took out votes from the first two hours of the match (when the rally was in effect) and compared both characters from 2:00 PM onward.

Raiden only got something like 57% against Waluigi. That's a pretty terrible performance again Waluigi.
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Drop it to the floor...
#84 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:25:45 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take Waluigi at much face value anyway. He stood out even more in that match than Raiden is in this upcoming one.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb9/5144.jpg

really waluigi
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#85 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/18/2013 5:32:13 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Despite it being a day match, Raiden was killing Waluigi in all the time zones where a rally wasn't taking place. If you remove the rally, then his result gets pretty close to what Shepard got on Olimar. I think it's a sneakily impressive result that should prove itself tomorrow.


I don't think that's true. Did some quick math right now....I took out votes from the first two hours of the match (when the rally was in effect) and compared both characters from 2:00 PM onward.

Raiden only got something like 57% against Waluigi. That's a pretty terrible performance again Waluigi.


The rally was ongoing for the entire day, it was just more pronounced during the start. I was paying attention to that rallying thread of theirs and it was still getting decent number of replies towards the end of the match.
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#86 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/18/2013 5:33:38 PM | message detail
"Really Waluigi" sounds like a sitcom I would give all of my money to see created.
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#87 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:36:21 PM | message detail
oh no I just realized it

if Link brings his A game there's a half decent chance Waluigi ends up above Yoshi in the final stats
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#88 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/18/2013 5:38:37 PM | message detail
That would have to be a real SFF mauling. He can do it, but the circumstances of tomorrow's match are a little different. Link is going to win and win easily. The real match is the one for second, and the Nintendo fanbase may give Yoshi a little extra love because of that.
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#89 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 5:45:57 PM | message detail
The Nintendo fanbase refused to give Mario enough love to stop Link from SFFing him below Crono. Heck if Mario had been able to hold it together just slightly more than he does 1v1 he could have contested for second in that match.

I don't deny SmartVoterFAQs could do it, but I am having trouble with that kind of faith in GameFAQs' learning curve.
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#90 | Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 8/18/2013 5:50:40 PM | message detail
Yoshi is beating Raiden tonight.

Why?

Because I believe.

I'd also take Yoshi in Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi, because Yoshi has show the ability to resist Mario SFF more than any other character.

see:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2328
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SC2K13 Bracket: Kefka hate hate hate hate hates my bracket!
Oracle: Team Frog and Magus
#91 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/18/2013 6:00:53 PM | message detail
I'm glad Raiden won last round, but I would still greatly enjoy seeing Link/Yoshi/Waluigi. Tingle pulled a "miracle" against Link by taking SFF better than Ganondorf, but I doubt Waluigi could hold up as well while Yoshi saps at his Mario-support.
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#92 | creativename | Posted 8/18/2013 6:21:43 PM | message detail | (edited)
Nanis23 posted...
Does this match just proves how much lol the "lol xstats" can be...?
Someone gave the example that according to this,Mewtwo triples Zidane
Of course it might not happen in a real contest because the more rounds= the more accrurate the stats and a match between 3 uber fodder will never happen (can happen if a weak character gets overseeded and face against 2 low seeds that are week,but chances are low)

Fodder characters vary in strength much more than stronger characters. Their stats are notoriously unreliable - with some exceptions (eggplant CATS was surprisingly constant in those early contests).

Even after all these years, we still haven't seen changes that drastic to the Noble Nine. They've had their ups, downs, boosts and de-boosts, but for the most part these movements are relatively marginal.

Achromatic posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Yes, the extrapolated standings are just a guideline - and things can easily mess them up. Most people know this. Heck, even in matches that look super clean the x-stats might not be reliable. Magus got 35% on Link for reasons we're still not really sure about, in a direct match!


Because he was that strong that year!

Chrono Trigger sprites + Bible Link + Magus actually being worth a damn that year. I think the reasons for that performance are pretty clear cut.

edit: I mean just look at this picture. Not surprising Magus overperformed here!

www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k3/sum03b49.jpg
#93 | creativename | Posted 8/18/2013 6:19:42 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The Nintendo fanbase refused to give Mario enough love to stop Link from SFFing him below Crono. Heck if Mario had been able to hold it together just slightly more than he does 1v1 he could have contested for second in that match.

I don't deny SmartVoterFAQs could do it, but I am having trouble with that kind of faith in GameFAQs' learning curve.

In Mario's defense, Samus was also in that match. Mario never really had a shot there.
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#94 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 6:24:34 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The Nintendo fanbase refused to give Mario enough love to stop Link from SFFing him below Crono. Heck if Mario had been able to hold it together just slightly more than he does 1v1 he could have contested for second in that match.

I don't deny SmartVoterFAQs could do it, but I am having trouble with that kind of faith in GameFAQs' learning curve.

In Mario's defense, Samus was also in that match. Mario never really had a shot there.


I understand that, but Mario's percentage relative to Link - not just Crono - was abysmal. Nintendo voters didn't even try to rally around him when they had every reason to.
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#95 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:34:35 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The Nintendo fanbase refused to give Mario enough love to stop Link from SFFing him below Crono. Heck if Mario had been able to hold it together just slightly more than he does 1v1 he could have contested for second in that match.

I don't deny SmartVoterFAQs could do it, but I am having trouble with that kind of faith in GameFAQs' learning curve.

In Mario's defense, Samus was also in that match. Mario never really had a shot there.


I understand that, but Mario's percentage relative to Link - not just Crono - was abysmal. Nintendo voters didn't even try to rally around him when they had every reason to.


SmartVoterFAQs-Nintendo voters left Mario in the dust so Link wouldn't get LFFed in the final
apparently NintendoSmartVoterFAQs outsmarts you :P
#96 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 6:37:30 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The Nintendo fanbase refused to give Mario enough love to stop Link from SFFing him below Crono. Heck if Mario had been able to hold it together just slightly more than he does 1v1 he could have contested for second in that match.

I don't deny SmartVoterFAQs could do it, but I am having trouble with that kind of faith in GameFAQs' learning curve.

In Mario's defense, Samus was also in that match. Mario never really had a shot there.


I understand that, but Mario's percentage relative to Link - not just Crono - was abysmal. Nintendo voters didn't even try to rally around him when they had every reason to.


SmartVoterFAQs-Nintendo voters left Mario in the dust so Link wouldn't get LFFed in the final
apparently NintendoSmartVoterFAQs outsmarts you :P


If they were smart enough to do that Mario's presence wouldn't have mattered as they woulda all jumped ship!
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#97 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:42:23 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
If they were smart enough to do that Mario's presence wouldn't have mattered as they woulda all jumped ship!


not everyone is a smart voter though, don't take that risk!
(this discussion is so stupid)
anyway update before the last one pulled in 62 votes, we're now 4200 behind that Lugia match and counting
#98 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 6:46:01 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Holy mother of god these vote totals...


This match is looking like it will finish around 16000 votes. That would be about 14000 votes in a night match and 24000 votes in a 24-hour match.

At least these vote totals aren't as bad as this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4965

That was the worst poll we ever had and it was a 24-hour poll. At first, I wasn't sure if it was going to break 10000 votes since there only 989 votes at the end of the first hour. The poll managed to break 10000 votes with about 30 minutes left in the poll.
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#99 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:48:50 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
This match is looking like it will finish around 16000 votes. That would be about 14000 votes in a night match and 24000 votes in a 24-hour match.

At least these vote totals aren't as bad as this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4965

That was the worst poll we ever had and it was a 24-hour poll. At first, I wasn't sure if it was going to break 10000 votes since there only 989 votes at the end of the first hour. The poll managed to break 10000 votes with about 30 minutes left in the poll.


yeah, but that's a poll featuring reviews that most of the site hasn't ever seen
circumstances are quite different there

(on a random note, I want a Game of the Generation contest)
#100 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 6:49:30 PM | message detail
also I thought the worst vote totals ever were here:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1

:P