GameFAQs Contests

Lucina and Dracula TOO STRONG

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A = Strongest Character
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To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]

Mewtwo – 50.00%
Dracula – 37.11%
Lucina – 27.59%
Zidane Tribal – 26.30%
Ridley – 24.00%
Zero – 15.23%
Caim – 7.60%
Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 4.88%
Chester – 4.12%
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When was the last time the new stats topic was made after the previous one 500'ed?
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"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.

paulg235 posted...

When was the last time the new stats topic was made after the previous one 500'ed?

It's already happened a few times this contest.
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Chester stats beg to differ!

Dracula - 23.49
Mewtwo - 23.30
Lucina - 13.90
Zidane - 12.34
Ridley - 10.36
Zero - 4.19
Caim - 2.68
Dancin' - 1.26
Chester - 1.00
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How the heck did Mewtwo vs. Dracula become the only thing to look really different?
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Eh, it's possible I messed up somewhere. Didn't bother to double check my work to make sure it was accurate since it doesn't really matter.
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Lucina>Zidane CONFIRMED

And in case anyone's interested and wants to cross-compare for next round matches (or something), here's all the first round X-Stats:

Division 1

Link – 50.00%
Isaac BOI – 17.45%
Tingle – 14.14%

Raiden – 50.00%
Waluigi – 44.07%
Alan Wake – 18.11%

Yoshi – 50.00%
Solaire of Astora – 29.39%
Demi-Fiend – 19.95%

Commander Shepard – 50.00%
Captain Olimar – 35.33%
Kain – 23.38%

Tharja – 50.00%
Tiny Tina – 49.40%
Juliet Starling – 43.99%

Aerith Gainsborough – 50.00%
Hero – 33.57%
Rinoa Heartilly – 31.33%

Draven – 50.00%
Jak – 45.06%
Chie Satonaka – 39.42%

Ryu – 50.00%
Yuri Lowell – 31.97%
Face McShooty – 23.65%

Mega Man X – 50.00%
Jigglypuff – 26.91%
Welkin Gunther – 14.17%

Division 2

Sonic the Hedgehog – 50.00%
Fei Fong Wong – 23.33%
Dan Hibiki – 16.95%

Dracula – 50.00%
Lucina – 37.17%
Caim – 10.24%

Barret Wallace – 50.00%
Professor Layton – 38.41%
Reimu Hakurei – 27.31%

Phoenix Wright – 50.00%
Marth – 44.88%
Nightmare – 30.71%

Vincent Valentine – 50.00%
KOS-MOS – 40.16%
Dunban – 16.54%

Mewtwo – 50.00%
Zero – 15.23%
Chester – 4.12%

The Boss – 50.00%
Chrom – 39.50%
Heavy – 35.04%

Sub-Zero – 50.00%
Garrus Vakarian – 45.01%
Frank West – 18.13%

Bowser – 50.00%
Meta Knight – 28.45%
Archer – 20.25%

Division 3

Sephiroth – 50.00%
Midna – 29.96%
Little Mac – 23.96%

Morrigan Aensland – 50.00%
Miles Edgeworth – 36.90%
Agent 47 – 32.90%

Spyro the Dragon – 50.00%
Clementine – 34.52%
Reyn – 18.85%

Luigi – 50.00%
Balthier Bunansa – 26.28%
Jade – 15.90%

Big Boss – 50.00%
Captain Viridian – 15.28%
Peacock – 13.41%

Ness – 50.00%
Locke Cole – 40.37%
CATS – 31.04%

Elizabeth – 50.00%
Poison – 44.39%
Thrall – 38.06%

Kirby – 50.00%
Terra Branford – 44.04%
Princess Peach Toadstool – 26.80%

Crash Bandicoot – 50.00%
Wheatley – 46.32%
Tommy Vercetti – 32.65%

Division 4

Solid Snake – 50.00%
Isaac – 22.20%
Commander Keen – 10.64%

Alucard – 50.00%
Captain Falcon – 49.75%
Rydia of Mist – 43.30%

Bayonetta – 50.00%
N – 36.77%
Wander – 30.51%

GlaDOS – 50.00%
Cole MacGrath – 28.85%
Ragna the Bloodedge – 22.92%

Ike – 50.00%
Protoman – 49.61%
Dr. Robotnik – 44.69%

Epona – 50.00%
Mordin Solus – 39.73%
Niko Bellic – 29.89%

Altair – 50.00%
Ratchet – 42.42%
Shulk – 33.96%

Lara Croft – 50.00%
Slime – 36.06%
Yuri Hyuga – 14.80%

Kefka – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 46.29%
Ryu Hayabusa – 43.90%

Division 5

Cloud Strife – 50.00%
Prinny – 26.33%
Senator Steven Armstrong – 13.52%

Frog – 50.00%
Viewtiful Joe – 33.84%
Handsome Jack – 32.54%

Lugia – 50.00%
Sly Cooper – 32.48%
Francis York Morgan – 16.77%

Dante – 50.00%
Laharl – 29.93%
Raz – 19.23%

Squirtle – 50.00%
Ramza Beoulve – 32.07%
JC Denton – 17.30%

Zidane Tribal – 50.00%
Ridley – 45.63%
Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 9.27%

Shadow the Hedgehog – 50.00%
Yu Narukami – 39.58%
Kat – 26.18%

Leon Kennedy – 50.00%
Albert Wesker – 35.40%
Oliver – 28.82%

Gordon Freeman – 50.00%
Simon Belmont – 35.88%
Hades – 21.36%
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Division 6

Crono – 50.00%
Missile – 23.41%
Sarah Kerrigan – 21.97%

Pikachu – 50.00%
Lloyd Irving – 30.86%
Big Daddy – 30.70%

Magus – 50.00%
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 41.48%
Jade Curtiss – 27.64%

Sora – 50.00%
Scorpion – 42.78%
Aya Brea – 27.98%

Gilgamesh – 50.00%
Booker DeWitt – 41.51%
Kaim Argonar – 18.22%

Yoshimitsu – 50.00%
Lu Bu – 43.34%
Groose – 36.67%

Mr. Game & Watch – 50.00%
Lee Everett – 48.30%
Meat Boy – 36.80%

Nathan Drake – 50.00%
Pac-Man – 48.14%
Steve – 31.71%

Pokemon Trainer Blue – 50.00%
Fox McCloud – 47.79%
Wolf O’Donnell – 13.86%

Division 7

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Sandbag – 21.58%
Isaac Clarke – 15.56%

Catherine – 50.00%
Neku Sakuraba – 48.73%
Vaas Montenegro – 35.87%

Knuckles the Echidna – 50.00%
Celes Chere – 39.83%
Seifer Almasy – 33.43%

Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 50.00%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 40.67%
Bomberman – 33.86%

Auron – 50.00%
Revolver Ocelot – 41.94%
Roxas – 32.10%

L-Block – 50.00%
Palutena – 30.67%
Teemo – 17.02%

Dragonborn – 50.00%
Tom Nook – 41.34%
Pyramid Head – 39.69%

Yuna – 50.00%
Master Chief – 46.25%
Claire Redfield – 37.85%

Tifa Lockhart – 50.00%
Chun-Li – 30.16%
Cirno – 15.59%

Division 8

Mario – 50.00%
Duke Nukem – 22.45%
Fawful – 13.03%

Vivi Ornitier – 50.00%
Adam Jensen – 27.74%
Marisa Kirasame – 18.32%

Ganondorf – 50.00%
Guybrush Threepwood – 21.70%
Max Payne – 20.46%

Squall Leonhart – 50.00%
Rayman – 28.47%
Commander Video – 10.77%

Amaterasu – 50.00%
Vyse – 23.56%
Adol Christin – 15.89%

Missingno – 50.00%
Tidus – 49.95%
Banjo – 31.79%

Wario – 50.00%
Creeper – 36.70%
The King of All Cosmos – 30.25%

Pokemon Trainer Red – 50.00%
Corvo Attano – 21.59%
Sissel – 12.10%

Urdnot Wrex – 50.00%
Cecil Harvey – 47.43%
Pit – 43.62%

Division 9

Mega Man – 50.00%
Magikarp – 36.65%
Geno – 18.73%

Kratos – 50.00%
Recette Lemongrass – 33.46%
Travis Touchdown – 32.69%

Jill Valentine – 50.00%
Mike Haggar – 28.45%
Red Bird – 22.00%

Zero – 50.00%
Kratos Aurion – 26.13%
Boko – 26.10%

Weighted Companion Cube – 50.00%
Claptrap – 45.46%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 44.00%

Rikku – 50.00%
? Block – 47.44%
Lyndis – 33.46%

Zelda – 50.00%
John Marston – 30.56%
Sackboy – 15.42%

Donkey Kong – 50.00%
Lightning – 45.64%
Falco Lombardi – 25.69%

Charizard – 50.00%
Riku – 33.77%
Nier – 15.27%
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Yes, that's it Dancin.' You've lost a half-hour to Chester, at this point you might as well go full Chester and lose the second half too. Do it. You know you want to.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]

Shulk didn't get doubled by Altair *gasp*

So Lucina>Chrom seems sensible by this point right?

I wonder which other games there are where the main character isn't the strongest one. FFX is the obvious one, where the main character is actually the weakest, but other than that I don't know.
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By my calculations, Mewtwo is worth about 23,3 Chesters, while Dracula is worth 23,1 Chesters.

Lightning Strikes posted...

So Lucina>Chrom seems sensible by this point right?

I wonder which other games there are where the main character isn't the strongest one. FFX is the obvious one, where the main character is actually the weakest, but other than that I don't know.

Based on what exactly do you figure Lucina is stronger? I haven't played FE:A so I don't really know the characters, but nothing we've seen in the contest so far suggests she'd be stronger than Chrom. Dracula could very well be weaker than The Boss.
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Ultimaphazon posted...

Lightning Strikes posted...

So Lucina>Chrom seems sensible by this point right?

I wonder which other games there are where the main character isn't the strongest one. FFX is the obvious one, where the main character is actually the weakest, but other than that I don't know.

Based on what exactly do you figure Lucina is stronger? I haven't played FE:A so I don't really know the characters, but nothing we've seen in the contest so far suggests she'd be stronger than Chrom. Dracula could very well be weaker than The Boss.

Lucina being more liked within the fanbase is far from a ridiculous possibility
now of course, how this translates to contest strength remains to be seen

FF is good at providing "other character > main character" scenarios. Kefka has a good shot at being stronger than Terra, Vivi beats Zidane, Auron crushes Tidus, and you might even argue Rikku over Yuna, who is the main character of X-2 (no way to really tell though - fun SFF matches are much rarer than dumb ones, sadly). There are probably plenty of examples where main characters from other, more popular, games in a series are present in other entries that have different main characters which they beat (Link and Zelda, Solid Snake/Ocelot and Raiden, Dante and Nero etc.).
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I think the problem with x-stats in three ways is it kind of relates to how the other 2 compare to each other. Chester getting the same percentage against Dracula and Lucina would make him look better than what he did against Mewtwo and Zero, and I'm pretty sure Chester would have gotten the same low percentage in any standard match of the main bracket.
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2800 votes behind Lugia's match
I'm surprised it's not falling behind faster, honestly

Lugia's match was at night. I can only imagine how bad these votals would be in a night match.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Lugia's match was at night. I can only imagine how bad these votals would be in a night match.

I wish this were a night match, really!

eh....on second thought maybe not

The Boss was probably underrated last time, but she's not beating Dracula. He looks pretty legit.

Also, Lucina is more popular in the fanbase so there's that.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig

Dracula looked legit because he scored 63% against an unknown, the hell am i reading.

I am probably one of the biggest proponent of Dracula but we should wait till his match against Sonic before concluding anything. Both Dracula and Lucina are unknowns, we have absolutely zero data on them, we shouldn't really extrapolate through this mega turbofodders match.
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Zinsanity of the Helix Board

There's not a lot of room of taking Lucina > Chrom and The Boss > Dracula

I personally feel Chrom is stronger, but I don't think they will be too far apart.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning

I wouldn't trust the FE fanbase's preferences on characters to be relevant to their contest strength for ANYTHING. Hector likely doubles Lyndis or worse among people there, and then you've got stuff like Marcus and Gheb who...also have a decent chance of beating Lyndis among that crowd.

I haven't picked up Awakening yet but take it from someone who's been posting on FE-related boards for nearly a decade: we are damn weird.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]

I'd take The Boss to clobber Drac. I don't see him looking too great next round, and she's not *that* far off from 'card regardless.
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Cavia Inc's protagonists spend 24 consecutive hours on the main page and go 1 for 1. But thankfully the reign of fodder is over, as two thirds of the bracket has gone and we're finally on to round two.

Round 2, Match 1

(1) Link

Round 1: 72.67% vs. Isaac (BoI) & Tingle

(6) Raiden

Round 1: 49.77% vs. Waluigi & Alan Wake

(9) Yoshi

Round 1: 60.05% vs. Solaire of Astora & Demi-Fiend

Link didn't lay down a godstomping in his opening match, but I don't expect him to drop off too much from his round one percentage. Yoshi and Raiden are obviously several times stronger than Isaac (BoI) and Tingle, but they only did as well as they did because of joke and anti-votes anyway.
Link got 71% on Luigi in 2010, so that should be a good estimate for how he'll do against Yoshi. I think it'll prove much more accurate than the 82/18 mauling he gave him in 2004, anyway.

Raiden didn't look too hot in round one, but Waluigi was being rallied so he can probably be excused. In any event, the set up is perfect for him to overperform - a sea of green with a WW Link pic contrasting with his cyborg form, and he's the only non-Nintendo option in the poll to boot. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he did as well as Alucard did in 2010 on Link. Even then, he still needs a huge assist from Link to get past Yoshi - the little dino would probably have little difficulty breaking 60% on Raiden 1v1. But the set up favours Raiden so heavily - it's even a night match, so the weak MGS day vote is mitigated - that I can't help but go for it.

Quote Advantage: Raiden. He could've had something that reminded everyone of his MGS2 self like "Did you say nerd?" but instead he got one from his more popular ninja incarnation that gets Snake's name into his pic. Can't do much more than that.

Bracket: Link
Expert: Link > Raiden > Yoshi
Oracle: Link - 56%; Raiden - 24%; Yoshi - 20%
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

By my calculations, Mewtwo is worth about 23,3 Chesters, while Dracula is worth 23,1 Chesters.

Well the match is still going on
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Man, I expect Yoshi to get absolutely massacred here. People have a lot more faith in the dino than me - I don't think Raiden's particularly strong but losing to a Link obliterated Yoshi just sounds so off to me.
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Also, I hope you're not using the current match to gauge Dracula's power, comparing him to Zidane or Mewtwo. We should know better than to try to read anything from this fodder-fest.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Man, I expect Yoshi to get absolutely massacred here. People have a lot more faith in the dino than me - I don't think Raiden's particularly strong but losing to a Link obliterated Yoshi just sounds so off to me.

Ditto. I just can't see it happening.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

I'm putting my faith on Yoshi being able to resist SFF enough to not lose to Raiden.
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I'm taking Yoshi > Raiden. Link's an incredibly obvious favorite compared to 2004 when he first smoked Yoshi, which allowed Tingle to do better this year than Ganondorf that year. Assuming that applies to Yoshi/Raiden next round, Yoshi can avoid most SFF as well. Revengeance shouldn't get Raiden that close to Yoshi anyway.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
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Yoshi avoiding SFF...? Man. Man.

I guess we'll see in a few hours!
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Luigi did better on Link than Alucard in 2010

I'm not sure if I would even take Raiden over Alucard
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Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning

charmander6000 posted...

Luigi did better on Link than Alucard in 2010

I'm not sure if I would even take Raiden over Alucard

I most certainly wouldn't
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I could see Yoshi > Raiden, depending on the severity of SFF. Raiden isn't worth much, but he does stand out as the only non-Nintendo option, which helps.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

charmander6000 posted...

Luigi did better on Link than Alucard in 2010

I'm not sure if I would even take Raiden over Alucard

I wouldn't, but I certainly wouldn't expect Luigi to hold up like that in this position. Distorted SFF is the order of the day.
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Missed the last match - what is everyone's opinion on Charizard? I thought 66% on Riku was extremely impressive. It's not that far from what Dante and Squirtle managed (vs. Laharl and Ramza) against a much stronger opponent.
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I'd take Charizard > Crono and *maybe* Sonic based off that performance. I said a doubling was what he needed to hit pre-match to validate himself for the most part and he didn't finish too far off of it.
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I wouldn't, but I certainly wouldn't expect Luigi to hold up like that in this position. Distorted SFF is the order of the day.

Yeah how much SFF there is will be hard to predict. If smart voters exist they must know Link has the match in the bag and therefore don't need to abandon Yoshi.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 64/80 Today's Picks: Charizard

charmander6000 posted...

I wouldn't, but I certainly wouldn't expect Luigi to hold up like that in this position. Distorted SFF is the order of the day.

Yeah how much SFF there is will be hard to predict. If smart voters exist they must know Link has the match in the bag and therefore don't need to abandon Yoshi.

inb4 Yoshi somehow holds the lead for 15 minutes due to SmartVoterFAQs leading to NOBODY voting Link

Raiden's percentage on Waluigi, rally or no, still worries me. Waluigi is most likely fodder. Yoshi is really just as much of a fan favorite as Luigi (if not, more). He would have to go back to 2004 levels to get that kind of SFF.

and it seems like Link's SFF power has really weakened since then. I think there are enough Nintendo fans for Raiden to still lose if he's still a low mid-carder.
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charmander6000 posted...

I wouldn't, but I certainly wouldn't expect Luigi to hold up like that in this position. Distorted SFF is the order of the day.

Yeah how much SFF there is will be hard to predict. If smart voters exist they must know Link has the match in the bag and therefore don't need to abandon Yoshi.

Yeah but that's straight up almost every match Link has ever had. Yet he still scores that ridiculously distorted SFF on the regular. Remember Link/Mario/Samus/Crono?
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Despite it being a day match, Raiden was killing Waluigi in all the time zones where a rally wasn't taking place. If you remove the rally, then his result gets pretty close to what Shepard got on Olimar. I think it's a sneakily impressive result that should prove itself tomorrow.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

When did the rally start? What were the percentages?
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"i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745

Did I win the Oracle for this match, or was my Caim pick too ridiculously high?

Chester and Spring Breeze Dancin' have a maximum amount of board 8 votes they're going to get, and the percentage of people that are going to find either appealing enough to vote for separately of that is just not high enough to deal with someone like Caim that people have actually heard of and who has more appealing design.
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MarioSuperstar posted...

When did the rally start? What were the percentages?

The rally started after the 12:18 PM update. The rally died off after the 1:53 PM update.
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LOLContests posted...

Did I win the Oracle for this match, or was my Caim pick too ridiculously high?

Chester and Spring Breeze Dancin' have a maximum amount of board 8 votes they're going to get, and the percentage of people that are going to find either appealing enough to vote for separately of that is just not high enough to deal with someone like Caim that people have actually heard of and who has more appealing design.

Well, that explains Caim beasting this poll...
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia