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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1115
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Power Hour OVER Which means it's time for Nier to eat up some percentage --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
And with the most boring update of all time, I shall head to bed! --- Still smilin' :> |
Woo barely hung onto the leaderboard! So anything thinking that Yoshi > Raiden still possible despite Link being in the poll? --- "In fact, I should just play good games from now on... Man, F*** THAT, let's play some s***ty ones!" - Angry Video Game Nerd |
Now
that Charizard is just about at Mega Man's 2010 projection on Riku, it
got me thinking, "where does Charizard need to be in order to beat Mega
Man with Zero in the match?" Well, we kind of have one comparison already - Snake/Mega Man/Zero/WCC. Tossing aside Cube because it's clearly nonlinear, that leaves us with Mega Man's percentage on Snake in that match, 38.69% versus his percentage from the direct 1v1 two years before, 44.67%. Meaning that if you take that match at face value, Mega Man w/Zero is worth 43.3% on unhindered Mega Man. Meaning that if you think Charizard can score 43.3%+ on unhindered Mega Man before rallies/craziness whatever, you should feel very good about him. ...which is a little bit deceptive. Snake actually boosted a ton between 2006 and 2008 thanks to Brawl/MGS4 (if you don't think that's obvious, I'd like to hear the explanation for Snake barely beating Sephiroth with Cloud in the poll (2006) to Snake barely beating Cloud with Sephiroth in the poll (2008)). So that percentage on Mega Man is very likely distorted in his favor in the later match for reasons outside of Zero. Also, Mega Man, if he's boosting from SSB4, is going to not only make it harder for Charizard to hit that percentage, but that percentage may very well increase as Mega Man finds it easier to SFF Zero. Increases in strength are very helpful for magnifying SFF - just ask Link! I still feel really good in Charizard. Probably about 85-90% confidence in him winning, whereas any faith I had in Pikachu is swiftly draining out the gutter. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
And
it's a pity that Mario doesn't have any multiway matches with Samus
that don't also have Link I think, or I could make a similar projection
for them. Suffice to say it looks like Charizard will have to actively
boost again to have a sporting chance. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
... ****ing Donkey Kong. --- FFIXOwner Character Battle IX Bracket: 72/80 |
No real movement from anyone... Well, besides Charizard dropping. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
I have more faith in Blue getting through Sora/Crono at this point than I do Pika getting through Crono/Magus. Magus is going to get stomped into the ground. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
What's with this about people saying because DK will get destroyed next round means he hasn't boosted? DK has every reason to have boosted significantly. He'll get crushed anyway because of obvious last place factor, on top of being double-SFFed by two characters totally out of his league. DK bombing next round should be fully expected. It doesn't mean he didn't boost. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... What's with this about people saying because DK will get destroyed next round means he hasn't boosted? Yeah, these are basically my thoughts as well. Think DK will do okay, considering, but yeah, I don't think it means he's the same as ever. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Trend chart from the day match: Time | Lightning | Kong | Falco | Votes 0:05 | 35.97% | 51.80% | 12.23% | 139 1:00 | 37.47% | 47.52% | 15.01% | 4684 2:00 | 36.28% | 47.28% | 16.44% | 3498 3:00 | 37.62% | 46.34% | 16.04% | 3118 4:00 | 40.04% | 44.30% | 15.66% | 2752 5:00 | 39.53% | 44.35% | 16.12% | 2451 6:00 | 38.28% | 46.30% | 15.42% | 2205 7:00 | 39.59% | 44.94% | 15.47% | 2114 8:00 | 39.39% | 45.14% | 15.47% | 1810 9:00 | 39.08% | 44.47% | 16.45% | 1799 10:00 | 39.04% | 44.70% | 16.27% | 1660 11:00 | 38.38% | 45.79% | 15.82% | 1485 12:00 | 39.21% | 44.26% | 16.52% | 1525 DK starts strong. Falco finishes "strong." Lightning manages one 40% hour. X-Stats: Donkey Kong – 50.00% Lightning – 45.64% Falco Lombardi – 25.69% DK's prediction percentage was 53.10% 'whoops' casuals got us --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
On
Zard's performance, one thing to keep in mind is how day oriented
Kingdom Hearts is. Pokemon also has a strong day vote, but their
ridiculous Power Hour(s) mean they aren't bad in night matches. KH is
terrible is night matches because their Power Hour is weak. Neither Pokemon nor KH have a strong overnight vote so that shouldn't matter. Basically, Zard is looking good here, but it's a more favorable setup than for a KH character. Zard should still beat Mega Man, but as mentioned earlier if MM boosts his ability to SFF Zero can boost as well. Overall that is one of the most intriguing matches of the contest. So many factors to consider! MegatokyoEd posted... Magus is going to get stomped into the ground. Yes I agree, I've maintained from the start that Magus is getting absolutely curb-stomped by Crono. Crono's problem is that all those Magus votes will pretty much come straight from him. The overlap there should be close to 100%. I still favor Crono, but it will be close. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Well,
given that we know little about Charizard's real strength, this match
doesn't really tell us much about where Riku stands now. Dammit.... --- Drop it to the floor... |
I
think this is a strong showing from the Zard, but I'm not really
panicking about my Mega Man pick yet. Leon got 61% on Riku in 2007, and
I'd take Riku 2007 to be a good deal stronger than Riku 2013. This
probably ends around 65-35 (maybe lower in a full 24 hour match) and I'd
think you'd need to be a lot stronger than Leon to beat Mega Man with
Zero leeching. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
I
have a theory about SFF/LFF in 3-way matches as compared to 4-way
matches. When people looked at the 4-ways, they saw four entrants and
knew two of them would advance, so they were more likely to vote for
their favourite even if they also liked a stronger character who they
thought would be winning the poll - after all, their favourite might get
through too. When people look at these 3-ways, they know that only the
winner advances, so they don't see much point in voting for anyone other
than someone who they perceive as being in contention to win the whole
thing, unless they don't like any option in that category. So it's
relatively easier for stronger characters in the same fanbase to lay
down big SFF beatings in the 3-way format than the 4-way. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Eh, fourways still saw a ton of crazy
SFF beatings the likes of which you wouldn't have thought possible.
Cloud took Sephiroth (the #3 character then and, Link revenge vote
theory or not, went close to 50/50 with him once upon a time) and just
about doubled him in an attempt to save himself from Snake, in a
match he was going to advance in no matter what. If you're positing he
could do even *better* in a Snake/Cloud/Sephiroth match at obliterating
Seph that's quite the claim. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
The
point of Riku possibly dropping is also valid. I'm guessing he's
dropped at least a little, as he is probably a character that needs new
games to remain relevant, and it's too early for KH3 hype to boost him. Kotetsu534 posted... I have a theory about SFF/LFF in 3-way matches as compared to 4-way matches. When people looked at the 4-ways, they saw four entrants and knew two of them would advance, so they were more likely to vote for their favourite even if they also liked a stronger character who they thought would be winning the poll - after all, their favourite might get through too. When people look at these 3-ways, they know that only the winner advances, so they don't see much point in voting for anyone other than someone who they perceive as being in contention to win the whole thing, unless they don't like any option in that category. So it's relatively easier for stronger characters in the same fanbase to lay down big SFF beatings in the 3-way format than the 4-way. I think you may well be on to something. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Still hyping up the all Noble Nine Final Nine --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
Yes
Karma we've seen some ridiculous SFF beatdowns in 4-ways, but I still
expect Mega Man to SFF Zero worse than he did in 4-ways. And not just
because of a possible Mega Man boost. Too bad for MM that Zero is so strong...I think the most optimistic is that MM 70/30's Zero, and that likely isn't enough to save him from Zard unless the Smash factor is a big deal. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Pretty bad performance from Zard here. Bah, if only DK wasn't in the next match I think Zelda could have taken him. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
I definitely wouldn't call it a bad performance. Riku isn't fodder, and the Zard Is almost doubling him. --- Proud supporter of DogFAQs |
Yeah
Riku isn't a fodder. Zard's performance is decently strong. Strong
enough for MM to be threatened for 1st spot in the division finals. --- I have Cloud winning this contest, which means I'll beat most of you... Nawt gonna happen >_> |
For all the whiners and crybabies about DK's win. Stop it. Just stop it. He'll more than likely smoked next round so put your rattles back in your prams, K? --- The Artist Commonly Known as The Hardcore Kid |
Really?
I think Riku is being given too much credit, he's weaker now than he's
ever been, and he was never that good to begin with. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
LeonhartFour posted... Still hyping up the all Noble Nine Final Nine uurrghh, do not want this. Besides it ruining my bracket, would be disappointing. |
creativename posted... Kotetsu534 posted...I have a theory about SFF/LFF in 3-way matches as compared to 4-way matches. When people looked at the 4-ways, they saw four entrants and knew two of them would advance, so they were more likely to vote for their favourite even if they also liked a stronger character who they thought would be winning the poll - after all, their favourite might get through too. When people look at these 3-ways, they know that only the winner advances, so they don't see much point in voting for anyone other than someone who they perceive as being in contention to win the whole thing, unless they don't like any option in that category. So it's relatively easier for stronger characters in the same fanbase to lay down big SFF beatings in the 3-way format than the 4-way. Throw in low votals and we have a greater percentage of the user base that is fully aware of this. I wonder how it can play into something like Link vs. Raiden vs. Yoshi? Perhaps Link could underperform as the smart voters go to Yoshi's side to ensure 2nd place? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
I
don't think people are going to care much about ensuring 2nd place when
only 1st place moves on and I don't think the Expert Challenge is
really popular enough to extend that much influence. Though Yoshi might benefit from Link being seen as the obvious first place anyway, who knows. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Pretty satisfied with Charizard's showing, even Auron could only score 68% on Roxas. 66% against Riku vs. 68% against Roxas Riku >> Roxas based on common sense --- Holy, it's the super Vermin. |
ugh another pokemon dominating at least Riku is putting up a fight, hopefully KH3 doesn't take forever, because once it's out Sora/Riku should be back to being strong (and many Square characters too) |
Interesting. The range on people's feelings about this Charizard performance is huge. "Solid." "Meh." "Bad." I'm gonna assume a Riku drop and say that it's just about where Zard needed to be for me to still feel good about Mega Man. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
Is
Riku really weaker now than he used to be? I'd assume he boosted since I
thought he was actually playable in KH3D instead of just an NPC. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
handheld KH is probably a non factor here Pokemon is the only handheld series with any kind of real strength oh and L-Block --- Not changing this sig until the Bengals, Bills, 49ers and Lions win the Super Bowl (10/10/10) Professional UotY Mentor to Leo3Leo, McFlubbin and Jeff Zero |
spin
off titles on handhelds don;t give much of a boost. Look at pit..his
game was one of the biggest on the 3DS, and he still looked as weak as
ever --- ... |
Depending where you have Cecil Pit got quite the boost. While Riku may be weaker this contest this is an impressive performance, the first one where it looks to be Charizard > Zelda and that may be all that matters. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning |
Bonus Match I: (8) Chester vs. (22) Caim vs. (8) Spring Breeze Dancin’ Previous Round Mewtwo – 81.80% Zero – 14.69% Chester – 3.51% Dracula – 58.63% Lucina – 34.69% Caim – 6.69% Zidane Tribal – 51.50% Ridley – 43.23% Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 5.26% Analysis Not sure why SBAllen decided to have a 12 hour break at the end of the first and second round, we could have had the second round start on a day match. The Luster and the board convinced SBAllen to give us more than a how are you liking this contest poll so we are treated with the three characters that got the lowest percentage in the first round. We also get to see what is the amount of people that vote in every match because the number that recognize any of these characters are likely as low as you can get. Caim seems to be the board favourite, probably because he got the highest percentage and did the best against Dracula. While we do not have any information on Dracula’s strength I feel he is not very strong. For one thing his performance against Lucina is only 2% better than The Boss’ performance against Chrom and I feel Chrom is likely to be stronger than Lucina. Depending how much stronger Chrom is over Lucina this puts Caim and Spring Breeze at around the same strength. Spring Breeze could benefit from having a funny name and could get joke vote support though that did not prevent him from getting crushed in the first round and jokes in general have been underperforming. Still in a match like this where the average voter is almost randomly picking someone any little thing that sets you apart from the other two opponents will help. As much as I would love to see Chester fall under 10% against these guys I do not see it happening. Chester proved that he is the weakest character ever, but for something like that to happen you also need a perfect set of circumstances. For one thing Mewtwo essentially removed most of those random votes because he is so recognizable. Chester is also the top option and while it may not matter it will likely give him a few extra votes. The board vote might decide who wins as the rest of the poll everyone splits between the three characters. Caim likely has the most fans, but I would not be surprised if Spring Breeze makes this a close match. charmander6000’s Fake Bracket: Caim > Spring Breeze Dancin’ and Chester charmander6000’s Prediction: Caim – 42.53%, Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 40.66%, Chester – 16.81% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning |
This
match's results would teach us something. Like on what bases do people
vote when they have no idea who the characters are. Oh and the
hilariously low vote totals for this match... |
I
think the next match getting such low vote totals means that most of
the voters are probably the most diehard contest fans. And I expect
most of the board to vote for Spring Breeze Dancin', which gives him a
chance at winning this match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
abdou posted... spin off titles on handhelds don;t give much of a boost. Look at pit..his game was one of the biggest on the 3DS, and he still looked as weak as ever Except the handhelds matter for Riku. They turned him from a NPC into a playable character. --- Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest. |
dethfdddddh posted... abdou posted...spin off titles on handhelds don;t give much of a boost. Look at pit..his game was one of the biggest on the 3DS, and he still looked as weak as ever This might matter but the handhelds sold approximately 2.4 copies in total, so I don't think Riku is any stronger. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
White_Tiger posted... ugh another pokemon dominating Am I the only one you know... "Done" with Square, its base and all they stand for? --- The Artist Commonly Known as The Hardcore Kid |
Charizard
burns up his poll, getting back over 59% before the end after falling
off during the night vote. He manages to double Riku, which is as
impressive as you think Riku is strong. Bonus Poll (8) Chester (8) Spring Breeze Dancin' (22) Caim This is a thing. It's actually going to happen. Think the lead character from Drakengard probably has the most genuine fans outside of Board 8, but this is scraping so low that Dancin's name might be a bigger advantage. Hopefully votals will never go lower than they do here. Oracle: Chester - 16%; Spring Breeze Dancin' - 39%; Caim - 45% --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
dethfdddddh posted... abdou posted...spin off titles on handhelds don;t give much of a boost. Look at pit..his game was one of the biggest on the 3DS, and he still looked as weak as ever Handhelds do matter, but not KH 3D. It was tepidly received and it didnt even sell that well. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Chester 25% 3 Votes Caim 16.67% 2 Votes Your Pick Spring Breeze Dancin' 58.33% 7 Votes Total Votes: 12 --- If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig. |
Chester 26.09% 6 Votes Caim 26.09% 6 Votes Spring Breeze Dancin' 47.83% 11 Votes Your Pick |
Chester 31.58% 6 Votes Your Pick Caim 21.05% 4 Votes Spring Breeze Dancin' 47.37% 9 Votes Total Votes: 19 --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585 |
Vote Accepted Chester 20.69% 6 Votes Caim 27.59% 8 Votes Spring Breeze Dancin' 51.72% 15 Votes Your Pick Total Votes: 29 --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Chester 24.19% 15 Votes Caim 30.65% 19 Votes Spring Breeze Dancin' 45.16% 28 Votes Your Pick --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
the lowest votals OF ALL TIME --- F*** BT |
Spring breeze dancin' got this |
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