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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1115
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Thrall
dropped because he's weaker this year. There's no reason to suspect
that Alucard/Falcon are going to be any different than what the stats
have them as. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Achromatic posted... Karma Hunter posted...Achromatic posted...2Dover3D posted...This probably ends up being close to a 65% performance on Riku, which isn't all that great when it comes down to it. Thanks, but no thanks - the answer is pretty obvious anyway. They were similarly overrated. Alucard is overrated by Link anti-votes (the same thing that turned Thrall into a bomb and gives Magus his inexplicably high position despite him being obviously weaker than ever). Falcon is overrated by Cloud anti-votes (same thing with Thrall, but with Ridley). Link and Cloud are getting significant anti-votes, and it's making them nonlinear against weak competition. Very probable it happens to Raiden tomorrow too. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Xuxon posted... From: Achromatic | Posted: 8/18/2013 12:23:09 AM | #245Karma Hunter posted...Achromatic posted...2Dover3D posted...This probably ends up being close to a 65% performance on Riku, which isn't all that great when it comes down to it. Right. But...then they faced each other this contest. And were within 100 votes of each other. ...They are of similar strength. There is literally no arguing that <_<. He said everything is wrong! Literally everything. Now if you want to say both are overrated despite Alucard's final xstat number falling within range of his usual, well maybe we'll see next round for 'card. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 8/18/2013 12:25:51 AM | #251 Thrall dropped because he's weaker this year. There's no reason to suspect that Alucard/Falcon are going to be any different than what the stats have them as. so what, you think Alucard's beating Sub-Zero in a night match? that seems pretty crazy to me. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Don't really see an issue with that. Alucard is pretty consistently good in these things. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Sub-Zero is consistently better >_> --- Still smilin' :> |
Honestly
I half expect Snake to go berserk on Alucard and pass Link's 2010
percentage without too much fuss. This doesn't actually mean he's
stronger than Link or does it, it means Link 2010's nonlinear. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
vcharon posted... Sub-Zero is consistently better >_> Yeah but it isn't out of reach or anything. Subby has always been a little better than Alucard. Subby would be the favorite but Alucard could possibly win. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Karma Hunter posted... Ramza's night vote should be worlds better than Riku's though. Ramza/Riku 2010 says that there's really no difference. FFT never came out in Europe until the PSP port, so yeah. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
Xuxon posted... From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 8/18/2013 12:25:51 AM | #251Thrall dropped because he's weaker this year. There's no reason to suspect that Alucard/Falcon are going to be any different than what the stats have them as. What's wrong with Alucard beating Sub-Zero in a night match though. Sub-Zero is definitely slightly stronger in 24 hour match, but i have no problem envisioning him losing to Alucard at night. --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
Alucard's precipitous fall has been... obscured. Taking Alucard/Magus and Magus/Otacon at face value, Alucard fails to double Otacon.
He's not the guy he used to be - the old Alucard would have never
dropped a match to Liquid Snake or Captain Falcon. That'll be proven
more or less next round. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Achromatic posted... Right. Tidus and Shadow's 2003 X-Stats projected them to be near equals and their 2004 match bore that out, but they were both certainly quite overrated in 2003. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
THE ZARD IS TAKING NO PRISONERS --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
Zard
is kinda falling off a cliff right now - it's a good thing he started
so high, because he's gonna lose the doubling any update now and doesn't
seem to be stopping the plunge. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Anyway,
this probably ends up something like 58/32 Zard/Riku. That's in line
with the 2010 stats, and considering Zard is thought to be overrated by
those, not a bad result from him. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Karma Hunter posted... Alucard's precipitous fall has been... obscured. Taking Alucard/Magus and Magus/Otacon at face value, Alucard fails to double Otacon. He's not the guy he used to be - the old Alucard would have never dropped a match to Liquid Snake or Captain Falcon. That'll be proven more or less next round. You don't think Snake would get some anti-votes if the match is out of hand, though? Or is Snake traditionally not known for getting anti-votes? --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Karma Hunter posted... Zard is kinda falling off a cliff right now - it's a good thing he started so high, because he's gonna lose the doubling any update now and doesn't seem to be stopping the plunge. And then he gains...! --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Julian_Caesar posted... You don't think Snake would get some anti-votes if the match is out of hand, though? Or is Snake traditionally not known for getting anti-votes? Certainly not to the extent of Cloud, Sephiroth, and now Link, no. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
Charizard, stop horsing around and maintain the damn doubling on Riku. --- Drop it to the floor... |
58-32 would be in possibly-losing-to-Zelda range imo --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Xuxon posted... 58-32 would be in possibly-losing-to-Zelda range imo It really wouldn't. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
heh, Pokemon has come quite a long way from the early contest days :lol |
Achromatic posted... Karma Hunter posted...Zard is kinda falling off a cliff right now - it's a good thing he started so high, because he's gonna lose the doubling any update now and doesn't seem to be stopping the plunge. Hopefully he can buoy himself, because that mid 50s trajectory during the Power Hour is not encouraging. He's still clearly not nearly in line with his peak 2010 self. He's strong but we uh, already knew that. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Xuxon posted... 58-32 would be in possibly-losing-to-Zelda range imo Zelda (2010c) VS Riku (2010c) Zelda has a strength of 32.46. Riku has a strength of 26.52. Zelda wins with 59.15% of the vote! 58/32 means Zard gets about 65% --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I have a hard time envisioning any scenario where Charizard loses to Zelda
due to Charizard owning the power in SFF. Now, that is definitely the
range in which he'd definitely not beat Mega Man, I think. --- Still smilin' :> |
58-32 would put Zard quite a bit above the 58% Zelda is projected to get on Riku. Maybe Charizard is getting some NEW POKEMON ANIME hype --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
Well
yeah I think we all understand that peak Charizard was on steroids but
if he is even close to that his path to the final 9 is clear. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
I
think people with Mega Man beating Zard have to hope for a Riku drop at
this point. Which is very possible, but yeah. This result is
impressive. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Anyway speaking of me being horrible at this contest I took 3 what I thought of as fairly interesting risks pre-contest. Cecil to round 3 (I was right about Pit, damnit) Lightning to round 3 (I was right about literally nothing) Crono winning his division 0/2 so far. Come on Crono, let's have fun! --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
L-Block was probably the most normal match Charizard had that year, to be honest. --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
Nier still finding ways to fall, but Riku is back to gaining on Charizard. And I think I should clarify that if he can stop this descent and maintain the doubling I'm leaning toward him retaining a great deal of his boost strength - and that's with impugning Riku as being overrated and possibly even weaker this year. He'll probably end up somewhere between the range to lose to Zelda and that, though. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Would DK hurt Zelda or Charizard worse |
Probably Zelda, but there's no way to know for sure yet. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Zelda, probably. I doubt he matters much in that match though. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I stand by my "10% for DK" campaign <_<. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
huh, for some reason I thought Caim got like 8%.....but he did even worse! at least I can say Lucina quintupled someone, HAHAHA |
The board vote is going to be hilarious for Zelda/Zard at the very least. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
Oh
right, this discussion reminds me that we should have a sort of good
indirect read for Charizard next round. Assuming a constant Falcon and
Riku we can hopefully get a good projection for Snake/Charizard and
through that current Charizard to the rest of the field. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Updated Top 10 Top 10 Least Impressive Day Winners 1. Mr. Game & Watch Round 1 10500 2. Ike Round 1 11023 3. Kefka Round 1 11443 4. Urdnot Wrex Round 1 11842 5. Catherine Round 1 12092 6. Ness Round 1 12979 7. Rikku Round 1 12980 8. Altair Round 1 13157 9. Yuna Round 1 13279 10. Donkey Kong Round 1 13316 Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers 1. Waluigi Round 1 14794 2. Fox McCloud Round 1 13207 3. Ridley Round 1 13037 4. Terra Branford Round 1 11893 5. ? Block Round 1 11714 6. Neku Sakuraba Round 1 11493 7. Master Chief Round 1 11426 8. Lightning Round 1 11181 9. KOS-MOS Round 1 10944 10. Proto Man Round 1 10854 --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning |
Zard
to probably lose the doubling next update, before the Power Hour is
even out. It will be interesting how much he loses overnight, but he
could fall to even 63% or maybe a bit lower here. Still a solid showing,
but not great. |
Thankfully
for Zard, Riku's night vote isn't that great. He'll probably still drop
just because he started off so high, but yeah. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
If
it weren't Zelda and a more independent character I'd be more worried
about next match, but as it is I feel very confident in Charizard being
favored by the Nintendo hierarchy. Someone like... Tifa for instance
though would make me feel very bad I think. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Tifa
is a good amount stronger, DK is in the match, and it's a night match.
she shouldn't just cause worry, she should be a solid favorite. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
No
kidding. Tifa's probably not far off from Charizard's natural strength,
wherever it is. Even with Zard drilling DK into the ground, he'd
probably lose because he's just not stronger than Tifa by enough. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
Well okay that might have been a bad example but you get what I'm SAYING --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Doubling lost Almost 60/30/10 exactly at the end of the first hour --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
Nasty
percentage slide by Charizard there, a third of a percent, though he's
attempting to make gains during this slide here and there. --- Still smilin' :> |
time for Nier to rise against the Nintendo/KH night vote. maybe like what JC Denton got. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
doubling regained! --- Dr voltchball - best in the world. |
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