Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1115

#51 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/17/2013 10:23:07 AM | message detail
superange128 posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Falco seems like someone who can do decent if he's the only Nintendo character in the poll.

And then collapse against any Nintendo character of strength.


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Vincent_Valentine_vs_Falco_Lombardi_vs_Scorpion_vs_Gordon_Freeman_2008


That's about where I would expect Falco to be regardless. Who would actually pick him over Gordon and Scorpion in a 1vs1?
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#52 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:23:09 AM | message detail
Falco did good against Vincent in 2008 once, but looking at KOS-MOS this year that just seems horribly fraudulent now. Dude couldn't even beat Scorpion in the next round despite being the sole Nintendo option.
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#53 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/17/2013 10:24:39 AM | message detail
I still think Pikachu looks just fine. Nintendo fans like and will mobilize around Pikachu, whereas the same seems decidedly untrue for Lightning. People are throwing a party about her loss.
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#54 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 10:25:31 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
kinsho3 posted...
I think this match makes Luigi/Big Boss a helluva lot more interesting. Ness is going to die as soon as that first vote gets counted.


I assumed that might be the case, but I always picked Big Boss on the assumption he's just straight up stronger than Luigi. He beat Kirby's face in harder than Luigi ever did.


This is your logic for Snake > Link Yes?
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#55 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:26:40 AM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
kinsho3 posted...
I think this match makes Luigi/Big Boss a helluva lot more interesting. Ness is going to die as soon as that first vote gets counted.


I assumed that might be the case, but I always picked Big Boss on the assumption he's just straight up stronger than Luigi. He beat Kirby's face in harder than Luigi ever did.


My intuition always told me Big Boss is stronger than originally thought. However, even if he isn't, it being a night match will still tip the scales in BB's favor anyway!
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#56 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 8/17/2013 10:25:59 AM | message detail
Looks like Lightning won't strike twice.
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#57 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:26:20 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
It's about seeing DK *threatened*. They're not looking at the score before they vote. They see a Nintendo representatives and a Square representative, and vote for the strongest Nintendo representative to ensure that character's victory. We even see it in matches like Dante/Leon, which is actually a 52/48 match in its cleanest setting. But when Dante gets threatened, Leon voters abandon him to save Dante.


charmander posted...
Do people check the results before voting?


I would think these smart voters would check the results first before placing their vote (like Tsunami). I would think people would double-check before taking a vote away from their favorite character within the match.


Some do, but many do not. The weaker characters do hurt the stronger ones *some*, after all, but time and again we see these huge SFF distortions when the stronger characters get challenged.
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#58 | Sorozone | Posted 8/17/2013 10:27:09 AM | message detail
Why does everyone think BB/Luigi is a night match. It's a day match.
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#59 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:27:33 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
kinsho3 posted...
I think this match makes Luigi/Big Boss a helluva lot more interesting. Ness is going to die as soon as that first vote gets counted.


I assumed that might be the case, but I always picked Big Boss on the assumption he's just straight up stronger than Luigi. He beat Kirby's face in harder than Luigi ever did.


This is your logic for Snake > Link Yes?


aw yiss

I actually took Link. But I'd gladly burn my bracket even if I was #1 on the last day to see this happen
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#60 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:30:38 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I still think Pikachu looks just fine. Nintendo fans like and will mobilize around Pikachu, whereas the same seems decidedly untrue for Lightning. People are throwing a party about her loss.


It's not about what the Nintendo fanbase will do - we know they're voting Pika. It's about whether Crono can muster up that distorted SFF. You're dealing with much stronger characters, but it's the same principle.
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#61 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:31:23 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Why does everyone think BB/Luigi is a night match. It's a day match.


Wait....it's a day match???? Crap....why do I still assume Round 2 starts off in the day instead of the night?

Welp....Big B has his work cut out for him.
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Drop it to the floor...
#62 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:33:52 AM | message detail
I still think there's a nontrivial chance Big Boss beats Luigi and Ness combined or close to it. Dude's very possibly stronger now and nearly did it against Kirby, Jinjo, and Lucas combined. Let's not forget that he still opened up that can of ultra-destruction while Jinjo and Lucas were busy folding harder than any Nintendo characters have possibly folded, ever.
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#63 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/17/2013 10:34:46 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Sorozone posted...
Why does everyone think BB/Luigi is a night match. It's a day match.


Wait....it's a day match???? Crap....why do I still assume Round 2 starts off in the day instead of the night?

Welp....Big B has his work cut out for him.


This does depend on whether Luigi can or can't SFF Ness into the dirt, though...
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#64 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/17/2013 10:35:26 AM | message detail
Luigi's gonna get 50%+.

Year of Luigi!
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#65 | turbopuns | Posted 8/17/2013 10:35:27 AM | message detail
Thank God round 2 starts soon.
#66 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/17/2013 10:36:23 AM | message detail
turbopuns posted...
Thank God round 2 starts soon.


Indeed. All that's left to see is whether Charizard will BOMB or not...
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#67 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:42:57 AM | message detail
Big Boss can't beat the Year of Luigi
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#68 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:43:30 AM | message detail
Also don't have a good read on Luigi from last time 'cause of that danged Link/Luigi SFF. Everyone in the Luigi/Yoshi/Bowser/Kirby logjam is involved in wonkiness that means they can't be measured reliably (Link/Luigi SFF, Missingno, Charizard, *and* Link/Sonic SFF).
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#69 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/17/2013 11:00:53 AM | message detail
if Luigi can't SFF Ness into the ground, Earthbound voters=dumb voters CONFIRMED
#70 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/17/2013 11:10:55 AM | message detail
It being a day match doesn't bode too well for Big Boss and Ness certainly won't hold up well to Luigi's SFF, but mark my words, Big Boss will win.
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#71 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/17/2013 11:12:40 AM | message detail
Oh

OH


LETS GO DK
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#72 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/17/2013 11:17:41 AM | message detail
also, Magus quote factor activates, resists SFF, Crono is screwed in the day with PokeFEAR consider it CALLED
(haha)
#73 | ZFS | Posted 8/17/2013 11:29:12 AM | message detail
As far as this match goes, I think DK definitely boosted. It's hard for me to believe he didn't after a game like DKCR. Those are the types of games that can do wonders for characters like DK. Lightning dropped, for sure, but I don't think you can really look at this as the same DK. People thought DK was more likely to lose to Falco than win here, after all.

This does make me more confident in Luigi, too, who is also probably working on stronger level than usual. Don't think BB could handle him 1v1, so the lower Ness goes the better.
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#74 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/17/2013 11:30:49 AM | message detail
I don't know why you guys are making assumptions for other SFF matches with strong characters.

This is clearly a case of both Lightning and Falco being worthless.
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#75 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 11:41:59 AM | message detail
Using a SFF'd Falco Mario is expected to get 61.94% on Donkey Kong

Donkey Kong near elite confirmed
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Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#76 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 11:45:46 AM | message detail
Now use this performance against Lightning's similar performance against Sonic
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#77 | Achromatic | Posted 8/17/2013 11:46:56 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I don't know why you guys are making assumptions for other SFF matches with strong characters.

This is clearly a case of both Lightning and Falco being worthless.


Ness
Magus

so strong.
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#78 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/17/2013 11:49:27 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I don't know why you guys are making assumptions for other SFF matches with strong characters.

This is clearly a case of both Lightning and Falco being worthless.


Ness
Magus

so strong.


Yes but Big Boss is not Lightning.

And I trust Magus to be worth more than Falco ffs.
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#79 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/17/2013 11:51:07 AM | message detail
Ness is a low midcarder. People would be a lot more worried about that match if, say, Ike or Captain Falcon were there. Luigi is only getting a relative free pass because Ness tends to die when there's other Nintendo around, but he's still not an anchor Luigi wants to have, not by a longshot.
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#80 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 11:52:30 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
Achromatic posted...
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I don't know why you guys are making assumptions for other SFF matches with strong characters.

This is clearly a case of both Lightning and Falco being worthless.


Ness
Magus

so strong.


Yes but Big Boss is not Lightning.

And I trust Magus to be worth more than Falco ffs.


And Crono should be worth more than DK.
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#81 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/17/2013 11:55:16 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
SuorGenoveffa posted...
Achromatic posted...
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I don't know why you guys are making assumptions for other SFF matches with strong characters.

This is clearly a case of both Lightning and Falco being worthless.


Ness
Magus

so strong.


Yes but Big Boss is not Lightning.

And I trust Magus to be worth more than Falco ffs.


And Crono should be worth more than DK.


Of course I meant relative to Crono, duh.
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#82 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/17/2013 11:56:46 AM | message detail
poor Falco, sorry you had to die like this.


But either way, **** YEAH DK
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#83 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:13:05 PM | message detail
what percentage do you guys think Crono would get on Pikachu 1v1, anyway?
#84 | pyresword | Posted 8/17/2013 12:13:36 PM | message detail
Ughhh. I hate it when Board 8 talks me out of what was an easy match based on my first instinct.

Admittedly, this is the first such match out of like 8 or so similar matches this contest where my first instinct was actually correct, but it's still rather annoying.
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#85 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:15:23 PM | message detail
It's the weather man effect, you tend to remember the times where we did you wrong.
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Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#86 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:15:57 PM | message detail
Let's play the blaming game again. Stupid board 8 telling me Lightning would beat LFFd DK, blah blah blah.
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#87 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 12:17:15 PM | message detail
I blame charmander. When has he been right in debated matches this year? Why do I keep following his advice?

argh
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#88 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:21:09 PM | message detail
I know, when was the last time I got a debated first place match right?

Mr. Game & Watch and even then I took Lee in my bracket.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#89 | swordz9 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:32:46 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
swordz meltdown?

This match just got even better.

Nah. If you want a meltdown talk to Chris about Cecil not getting 1st in STATS in SMFFFC. I heard he took it so bad he considered it a personal failure or something.
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#90 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 12:35:05 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
what percentage do you guys think Crono would get on Pikachu 1v1, anyway?


Assuming Crono has weakened to the point that I thought he would pre-contest, about 58% was what I expected (roughly what Zero is expected to get on him assuming Lloyd = Kratos, coincidentally). Then cut a handful of percent for a day match and throw in Magus leeching to give Pikachu the win. The first part may bear true if Crono has dropped enough, but it may not matter if he can drain Magus's corpse enough to prevent the win.
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#91 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 12:39:05 PM | message detail
Oh, but assuming Crono hasn't dropped and is still at his more traditional 06-08 levels, um... he'll be at like 63% on Pikachu.

'whoops'
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#92 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:50:02 PM | message detail
Wow, both Lightning and Sackboy really bombed the last two days. They both got new games, but they turned out to be even weaker than before.

And Falco... sheesh. Remember DK/Marth/Kratos/(fodder)? Marth broke 40% on DK. I thought Falco would fare at least as well. I even thought Falco might be able to scrape by DK for 2nd. WHOOPS. It seems any Star Fox character not named "Fox" is just that bad against any Nintendo character. Hmm, what if the Star Fox franchise weakened? Probably not, but it's an excuse to say Blue isn't as strong as he appears (I wish). Not that Drake has a very good shot regardless.....

I'll go and rank 'em:

Midna
Marth
Peach
Falco
Ridley
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#93 | homsar555 | Posted 8/17/2013 1:00:23 PM | message detail
Is there a list anywhere that can show me the 20 or so characters with the most wins in contest history (preferably including villains, but not rivals)?

Thanks
#94 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/17/2013 1:00:36 PM | message detail
**** yeah DK, glad to see he's finally winning something by a good margin
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#95 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 1:01:12 PM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
I can buy a bit of a boost, DKCR and all, but not through the roof.

That is amazing though. People liked her until they played as her and then just BAILED in droves.


This is hardly unique. We see pre-game hype boost exceed post-release boosts ALL the time.
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#96 | Sorozone | Posted 8/17/2013 1:01:43 PM | message detail
Lightning's comeback begins!
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#97 | tgs2 | Posted 8/17/2013 1:02:57 PM | message detail
If this were an hour earlier, this could have been interesting. Not even DK can choke away a 1.2k vote lead with the votals this low.
#98 | squexa | Posted 8/17/2013 1:06:22 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
what percentage do you guys think Crono would get on Pikachu 1v1, anyway?


Assuming Crono has weakened to the point that I thought he would pre-contest, about 58% was what I expected (roughly what Zero is expected to get on him assuming Lloyd = Kratos, coincidentally). Then cut a handful of percent for a day match and throw in Magus leeching to give Pikachu the win. The first part may bear true if Crono has dropped enough, but it may not matter if he can drain Magus's corpse enough to prevent the win.


Hmm, Crono getting 58% on Pikachu seems scarily high.

Crono/Lavos got barely 41% on Liquid/Solid in 2011 while Pikachu got 45% on Snake in 2010. Granted, Pikachu got a huge pic advantage, while Lavos could be pulling Crono down, but still.

I think a related question is what Crono would get on Snake right now in a fair 1 vs 1 setting.
#99 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 1:08:31 PM | message detail
homsar555 posted...
Is there a list anywhere that can show me the 20 or so characters with the most wins in contest history (preferably including villains, but not rivals)?

Thanks


Not sure such a list exists, but I could probably hazard a guess at most of them (in no particular order).

1-9. The Noble Nine
10. Squall
11. Bowser
12. Ganondorf
13. Kirby
14. Luigi
15. Dante
16. Ryu
17. Auron
18. Yoshi
19. Sora
20. Vincent/Tifa

Not sure if Vincent or Tifa make it since they've missed so many contests, but those should be your top 20ish, give or take.
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#100 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 1:10:25 PM | message detail
Actually, after Vincent's deep runs in 2005, 2007, and 2008, he should be on the list, even given the fact that he was one-and-done in 2006 and 2010.
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