Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1115

#451 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/18/2013 10:47:19 AM | message detail
I find it amusing that Mewtwo would triple Zidane based on these results.

Clearly these are reliable numbers
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#452 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:50:29 AM | message detail
L-Block/? Block/WCC

You realize we've had this before just with a pong paddle? No point.

L-Block/? Block/Missingno

Basically the above match with just an obvious MissingNo win. Who cares.

Strongest losers of r2 could be fun though.
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#453 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 10:51:55 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
L-Block/? Block/WCC

You realize we've had this before just with a pong paddle? No point.


I'm aware we've had that match before with a Pong paddle in the match. However, the results could be different today. L-Block has a chance to win that match after originally losing to ? Block back in 2007. And WCC appears to be lock to finish in last place because it looked terrible in round 1.
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#454 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:54:10 AM | message detail
Lopen whining about jokes, what else is new
#455 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 10:54:57 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/213-nonstop-gaming-general/67013999/755031424

GUYS. I FOUND IT. THE ONE FAN OF SPRING BREEZE DANCIN IN THE WORLD
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#456 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:55:23 AM | message detail
People whining about people disliking bad jokes, what else is new
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#457 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:58:07 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/213-nonstop-gaming-general/67013999/755031424

GUYS. I FOUND IT. THE ONE FAN OF SPRING BREEZE DANCIN IN THE WORLD


OMG THAT'S ONE MORE THAN I EXPECTED
#458 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:59:11 AM | message detail
Man I haven't even hated on jokes much this year. In fact I was white knighting Magikarp pretty hard!

I just don't want another awful "bonus" match and those are arguably more boring than this one.
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#459 | Sorozone | Posted 8/18/2013 11:01:10 AM | message detail
Yeah, one joked bonus match is more than enough. I'd rather have strongest losers, or strongest snubs, or something.
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#460 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/18/2013 11:02:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Nah, he'll still get crushed next round and prove he hasn't changed THAT much.


Now you're backtracking. I still remember you predicting FF13 to win GOTY in 2010 and called anyone who said otherwise crazy. You really overrate FF13 don't you.
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#461 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 11:02:07 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Yeah, one joked bonus match is more than enough. I'd rather have strongest losers, or strongest snubs, or something.


that's cool, we'll have Crono in that match then *looks at KH*
#462 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 11:02:33 AM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Now you're backtracking. I still remember you predicting FF13 to win GOTY in 2010 and called anyone who said otherwise crazy.


Spoilers I don't care about what I said 3 years ago

Also just because DK won despite LFF doesn't mean he's not going to get crushed next round
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#463 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/18/2013 11:05:10 AM | message detail
It doesn't matter who wins next round. We'll finally have a solid rematch between Zero and Mega Man.
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#464 | Zenithian Legend | Posted 8/18/2013 11:06:16 AM | message detail
Whupassman posted...
Zenithian Legend posted...
What the hell is this? There's a consolation bracket or something? I'm so confused...


Cool sig bro.

And I truly mean that.


You made your account a day before my 18th birthday... in 2021, our accounts should go out for a drink together.
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#465 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 11:06:19 AM | message detail
~2300 behind Ammy's match, ~2400 behind Lugia's
haha this will look amazingly awful by the end
#466 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 11:09:04 AM | message detail
From: GloryChaos | Posted: 8/18/2013 2:05:10 PM | #463
It doesn't matter who wins next round. We'll finally have a solid rematch between Zero and Mega Man.

they've already faced each other one too many times (damn cube)
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#467 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 11:11:39 AM | message detail
Hmm, Charizard did keep falling off last night... but all that percentage pretty much went to Nier, so even with the standard qualifications (Riku is overrated for sure, big match pic advantage, etc) I'm inclined to call that Pokemon's first *seriously* good performance... and, more importantly, that Charizard seems to have retained a serious chunk of his boosted strength. Getting more on Riku than he could on Duke Nukem is no joke.

Though at this point this has less implications for Charizard and more for the other Pokemon (that wasn't a Charizard-only boost... you'd think). Mewtwo, Squirtle, and Pikachu all suddenly have a lot to live up to.
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#468 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 11:12:52 AM | message detail
...what is this match
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#469 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/18/2013 11:13:14 AM | message detail
Hell yeah, Caim rocking this fodder suckfest. At least he has that going for him.

Drakengard is a crappy game with a delightfully f***ed-up story (in a good way) and a protagonist who's more interested in murdering everything in his path than he is being a hero. Caim kinda redeems his crappy game (and is pretty much the only good thing about the sequel).

Plus Drakengard 3 looks to be all sorts of f***ed-up as well, what with goddess sisters with male sex slaves.
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#470 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 11:16:21 AM | message detail
Last night's chart:

Time | Charizard | Riku | Nier | Votes
0:05 | 65.73% | 26.22% | 8.04% | 286
1:00 | 60.01% | 30.04% | 9.95% | 4874
2:00 | 58.99% | 29.92% | 11.09% | 2814
3:00 | 57.80% | 30.69% | 11.51% | 2232
4:00 | 56.71% | 32.79% | 10.50% | 1714
5:00 | 58.31% | 29.60% | 12.09% | 1456
6:00 | 57.40% | 30.20% | 12.40% | 1331
7:00 | 59.08% | 30.71% | 10.21% | 1322
8:00 | 58.63% | 30.48% | 10.89% | 1368
9:00 | 60.78% | 28.77% | 10.45% | 1637
10:00 | 58.63% | 31.01% | 10.36% | 1941
11:00 | 61.56% | 28.83% | 9.61% | 2071
12:00 | 59.89% | 29.59% | 10.52% | 1997

Zard starts off strong, drops off a bit overnight, and recovers a bit late. Riku has one strong hour overnight, but it's mostly Nier who benefits from the night vote.

X-Stats:

Charizard – 50.00%
Riku – 33.77%
Nier – 15.27%

Charizard's prediction percentage was 74.65%

Friendly reminder that only 53% had him beating Duke Nukem in 2010.
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#471 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/18/2013 11:20:54 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2522

Charizard > Mega Man 1-on-1 yessssssss
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#472 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 11:22:29 AM | message detail
I know you're being facetious, but 2006 was KH at the peak of its powers. Riku got 45% on Yoshi that year. Sora got 45% on Mega Man, easily the most impressive showing of his career.
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#473 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 11:23:12 AM | message detail
21 vote cut by Chester it's on now.
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#474 | PrestonStarry | Posted 8/18/2013 11:25:51 AM | message detail
THAT KINGDOM HEARTS 2 FACTOR FROM 2006.
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#475 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/18/2013 11:26:58 AM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
There have definitely been weaker characters than CATS in these contests throughout the years. He's just never went up against them.


CATS had a great opportunity to beat somebody in a vote-in, but instead got dead-last...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3696

...still, to his credit, he once doubled Nathan Drake in his only victory!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3265
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#476 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/18/2013 11:39:13 AM | message detail
2004 votes from 1:00-2:00 PM in this match. All of the remaining hours are going to get less than 2000 votes.

Based on all of the weekend day matches in this contest, projections for this match range from 16264 votes to 17617 votes if you use the total votes at 2:00 PM in those weekend day matches.
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#477 | Xuxon | Posted 8/18/2013 11:42:18 AM | message detail
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/18/2013 2:26:58 PM | #475
CATS had a great opportunity to beat somebody in a vote-in, but instead got dead-last...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3696

i blame that on the lack of a picture. there's probably a good number of people aware of the AYB meme without knowing/remembering the name CATS.
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#478 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/18/2013 12:18:43 PM | message detail
Only 3 and a half pages for Charizard match?
lol
Expected more talk about him under/over performing MM is screwed etc
#479 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 12:19:20 PM | message detail
The match itself was pretty boring, so there wasn't a lot to say.
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#480 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/18/2013 12:34:19 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I know you're being facetious, but 2006 was KH at the peak of its powers. Riku got 45% on Yoshi that year. Sora got 45% on Mega Man, easily the most impressive showing of his career.
Yeah I don't think Charizard beats MM in a fair match - and if nothing else, Mega Man looked better in 2010 than 2006 and has the Smash announcement so even if it was valid current MM might still have a shot.

Having trouble taking the comparison seriously says very alarming things about KH's current strength, though. 2005 pre-KH2 Riku got 48.33% on Frog. Axel 2007 barely "lost" to a Frog that by both common sense and Samus/Frog comparisons was weaker. Current Riku having completely lost his KHII boost and being potentially weaker than Peak Axel can't mean good things for Sora. And indeed 57% on Scorpion - even a stronger than normal Scorpion - while pretty much what we expected, was pretty bad for him IMO.

lol fourways and lol Gordon but:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3281

Have we kicked him out of the near-elite club yet? If not, what does he need to do in Crono/Sora/Blue or Pikachu/Sora/Blue short of actually losing to a Pokémon for us to do so?
(And yes current Vincent is in the same boat!)
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#481 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 12:36:13 PM | message detail
I think I'll reserve judgment on Kingdom Hearts until they finally get a day match.

Or a 24-hour match since Sora has yet another night match next round.
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#482 | pjbasis | Posted 8/18/2013 12:41:21 PM | message detail | (edited)
Last set of Chester stats for Round 1. Now the fun begins

Mega Man - 4.34˘
Geno - 1.00˘
Magikarp - 2.51˘

Kratos - 2.06˘
Travis Touchdown - 1.00˘
Recette Lemongrass - 1.03˘

Red Bird - 1.00˘
Mike Haggar - 1.41˘
Jill Valentine - 3.55˘

Zero - 2.83˘
Kratos Aurion - 1.00(1)˘
Boko - 1.00˘

Lenneth Valkyrie - 1.00˘
Claptrap - 1.06˘
Weighted Companion Cube - 1.27˘

? Block - 1.79˘
Lyndis - 1.00˘
Rikku - 1.99˘

John Marston - 2.41˘
Zelda - 5.48˘
Sackboy - 1.00˘

Lightning - 2.43˘
Donkey Kong - 2.89˘
Falco Lombardi - 1.00˘

Charizard - 5.55˘
Riku - 2.83˘
Nier - 1.00˘
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#483 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 12:41:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, KH has fallen hard, but Sora losing in a Pikachu/Blue match would be out of this world. Crono/Sora/Blue I can see him dropping, because honestly I can see Blue advancing in first through Crono and Sora splitting the Square votes and both refusing to fold.
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#484 | pjbasis | Posted 8/18/2013 12:42:26 PM | message detail
Man Sora is even further removed from Crono than a Final Fantasy character, there's no significant overlap
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#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 12:43:03 PM | message detail
Eh, I think CT and KH are pretty distinct fanbases despite both being Square. Kingdom Hearts's trends being so radically different than anything else Square has attests to this, I think.
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#486 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/18/2013 12:43:58 PM | message detail
Can we get a complete total of chesters?
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#487 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 12:44:17 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah, KH has fallen hard, but Sora losing in a Pikachu/Blue match would be out of this world.


watching everyone in the expert leaderboard plunge would be worth it
#488 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 12:44:55 PM | message detail
(And yes, I know that KH and FF have shown SFF in the past despite the variance in trends, but if CT hasn't really shown any disproportionate overlap of a noticeable amount against Modern FF in the past, not sure why it'll come into play against KH)
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#489 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 12:45:56 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
watching everyone in the expert leaderboard plunge would be worth it


The problem is that virtually nobody would plunge. Most everyone at the top of the leaderboard would pick Sora, and if anyone DOES pick someone other than Sora, who would people side with? I doubt it'd favor Pikachu or Blue disproportionately, so most people will get the match wrong either way.
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#490 | pjbasis | Posted 8/18/2013 12:47:01 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Can we get a complete total of chesters?


hm?
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#491 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/18/2013 12:47:11 PM | message detail
are all losers getting a match or is this a special fodder bonus?
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#492 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 12:47:59 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
watching everyone in the expert leaderboard plunge would be worth it


The problem is that virtually nobody would plunge. Most everyone at the top of the leaderboard would pick Sora, and if anyone DOES pick someone other than Sora, who would people side with? I doubt it'd favor Pikachu or Blue disproportionately, so most people will get the match wrong either way.


the point totals would go down, not the people on it
-54? sounds good
#493 | superange128 | Posted 8/18/2013 12:48:24 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Can we get a complete total of chesters?


looks like Caim is 2.5 Chesters and SBD is only 1.25
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#494 | pjbasis | Posted 8/18/2013 12:49:38 PM | message detail
Yeah this match is wonky because even Zero 999 was at least 4 chesters
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#495 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/18/2013 12:49:52 PM | message detail
Can we get comparisons on Mewtwo/Zidane/Dracula though these guys? 999-Zero/Ridley/Lucina too if you care enough.
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#496 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/18/2013 12:50:56 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
(And yes, I know that KH and FF have shown SFF in the past despite the variance in trends, but if CT hasn't really shown any disproportionate overlap of a noticeable amount against Modern FF in the past, not sure why it'll come into play against KH)


Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero implies that Crono is worth a paltry 31% on Link. C'mon. I know that's arguably Crono's worst year, but Zack Fair got that much on Link in neutral matchups, repeatedly!
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#497 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 12:51:24 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Can we get comparisons on Mewtwo/Zidane/Dracula though these guys? 999-Zero/Ridley/Lucina too if you care enough.


Lucina's worth almost 14 Chesters!
too lazy to calculate the rest
#498 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/18/2013 12:52:07 PM | message detail
play
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nt
#499 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/18/2013 12:52:26 PM | message detail
Play Chester.
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#500 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/18/2013 12:52:36 PM | message detail
Play Drakengard
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