Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1115

#1 | spooky96 | Posted 8/17/2013 9:53:24 AM | message detail
Go Donkey Kong!


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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I have Cloud winning this contest, which means I'll beat most of you...
Nawt gonna happen >_>
#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 9:53:49 AM | message detail
someone show this poll to Square and let them know we want FFXV ASAP instead of FFXIII-3
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#3 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 9:53:55 AM | message detail
Hoping I didn't make myself look like an idiot.
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I have Cloud winning this contest, which means I'll beat most of you...
Nawt gonna happen >_>
#4 | paulg235 | Posted 8/17/2013 9:54:05 AM | message detail
lol FFXIII
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#5 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 9:57:17 AM | message detail
YESSSSS!

WALNUTS, PEANUTS, PINEAPPLE SHELLS.......
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Drop it to the floor...
#6 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/17/2013 9:57:52 AM | message detail
Time to get Diddy Kong back in

But if he gives another chokejob like that one back in 2008...
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#7 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 9:58:14 AM | message detail
DKCR boost

Diddy's got this

Diddy would be winning here tbqh
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#8 | swordz9 | Posted 8/17/2013 9:58:42 AM | message detail
There's plenty of hype for XV. If the series is falling it's just because babies can't embrace something new because it's different. Even games like X-2 aren't as bad as Square's first 4 Final Fantasy games.
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#9 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/17/2013 9:59:04 AM | message detail
If Falco can keep making contests then Diddy deserves to get back in.
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#10 | redrocket | Posted 8/17/2013 9:59:34 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
There's plenty of hype for XV. If the series is falling it's just because babies can't embrace something new because it's different. Even games like X-2 aren't as bad as Square's first 4 Final Fantasy games.


LMAO
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#11 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:01:05 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
There's plenty of hype for XV. If the series is falling it's just because babies can't embrace something new because it's different. Even games like X-2 aren't as bad as Square's first 4 Final Fantasy games.


Yikes
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Drop it to the floor...
#12 | Achromatic | Posted 8/17/2013 10:01:16 AM | message detail
Man, FF13 is my second favorite FF but swordz is being a baby now.
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#13 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 10:03:10 AM | message detail | (edited)
I remember back to 2009 and how I remembered how out of current-gen games, the sequels to popular games from previous generations that got loads of hype were the only ones to perform particularly well.

Now I look at this match to see that GameFAQs isn't immune to hype backlash.

That being said however, Final Fantasy XIII gets way more hate on the Internet than Metal Gear Solid 4, Twilight Princess, or Brawl. At the same time, I'm starting to feel as if those games are getting more and more hated, and that they're all dropping in contest strength.

So it bears asking the question again: am I the only one here who feels that way?
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#14 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:01:43 AM | message detail
Also, it's really good to see that DKCR was well-received. No way DK would be crushing Falco like this without some boost.
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Drop it to the floor...
#15 | swordz9 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:01:55 AM | message detail
X-2 has a great battle system. That's more than enough to put it over FF1-4 especially when the 4 combined don't really have anything noteworthy at all.
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#16 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/17/2013 10:02:02 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
There's plenty of hype for XV. If the series is falling it's just because babies can't embrace something new because it's different. Even games like X-2 aren't as bad as Square's first 4 Final Fantasy games.


I see that 13 fans are as bad as their favorite game.
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#17 | redrocket | Posted 8/17/2013 10:02:30 AM | message detail
On a serious note, "Babies can't embrace something new" is literally the worst argument you could ever use against the FF fandom. Literally every game in the series changes the formula and shakes things up, yet the fans have stuck with it for ~ two decades until the games just became horrible.
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#18 | pjbasis | Posted 8/17/2013 10:03:04 AM | message detail
swordz you're make it hard to stay on your side!
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#19 | redrocket | Posted 8/17/2013 10:05:14 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
X-2 has a great battle system. That's more than enough to put it over FF1-4 especially when the 4 combined don't really have anything noteworthy at all.


FF III literally invented the Job System that is the only redeeming feature of X-2. But 1-4 have nothing noteworthy at all.

Man.
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#20 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:05:51 AM | message detail
My main thing about the distorted SFF we're seeing (DK can't score this much on Falco 1v1) is that unless Nintendo voters are just straight up smarter than Square voters, Crono is going to score a preposterous amount of SFF on Magus.

That's what I don't like. I picked Pikachu based on a theory of Crono dropping to a low near-elite status (basically below all the Squalls and Aurons and Tifas and Vincents of the world... still possible, in theory) and then Magus taking a 30-35% bite out of Crono (which is actually in excess of their 2k4 showing, but I didn't think Crono had the ability to SFF him that hard anymore).

...but if a weak midcard like DK can score this much SFF on Falco, who could potentially beat Magus, Crono might reduce Magus to utter ashes and leave Pikachu facing most of his full strength.

Which means unless you think there's a significant Tales of boost that a character a bit above Fox is going to be facing most of the full might of Crono. This upset's outlook is looking very dim to me.
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#21 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/17/2013 10:08:00 AM | message detail | (edited)
MegatokyoEd posted...
If Falco can keep making contests then Diddy deserves to get back in.


I guess you have a point. But looking at this...


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Alucard_vs_Captain_Falcon_vs_Diddy_Kong_vs_Kratos_Aurion_2008

What the hell, Diddy?? I'd have AT LEAST expected you to put up a fight...
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#22 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/17/2013 10:06:27 AM | message detail
swordz meltdown?

This match just got even better.
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#23 | LOZLTTP | Posted 8/17/2013 10:12:41 AM | message detail | (edited)
rip my bracket
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#24 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/17/2013 10:07:43 AM | message detail
LOZLTTP posted...
rpi my bracket


Light to the final 9 too? I feel your pain dude... oh well, at least there's the expert.
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#25 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/17/2013 10:07:55 AM | message detail
It's pretty simple--SFF has a more profound effect in multiways. People who would've voted for Falco in a 1v1 against DK switch their vote over to DK because he's got a chance of actually beating Lightning and Falco doesn't.

I did it. Second time this contest that I've done it; first was Missingno vs. Tidus vs. Banjo (normally would've voted Banjo; voted Missingno because the match was so close with Tidus).

Although maybe that won't be as much of a factor here, since it doesn't look like Lightning's going to stand much of a chance of getting near DK for long! If I'd withheld my vote longer, I probably would've voted for Falco, but when I saw DK with that type of lead, I didn't want to risk it.
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#26 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 10:07:59 AM | message detail
If Donkey Kong boosted so much, you'd have to think Kirby would do so as well since he got similarly resurrected.

Then again, it's not like Epic Yarn or Return to Dream Land were nearly as well-received as Donkey Kong Country Returns. I think Epic Yarn lost to Epic Mickey and Metroid: Other M in the GOTY poll. Yikes. Plus Kirby probably draws more strength from SSB than Donkey Kong does.
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#27 | superange128 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:08:04 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
If Falco can keep making contests then Diddy deserves to get back in.


I guess you have a point. But looking at this...


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Alucard_vs_Captain_Falcon_vs_Diddy_Kong_vs_Kratos_Aurion_2008

What the hell, Diddy??


him beating Kratos Aurion with LFF actually makes him pretty good to me

he'll probably be a low midcarder now
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#28 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/17/2013 10:08:53 AM | message detail
XV is the most interest I've had in an FF game maybe ever
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#29 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/17/2013 10:09:36 AM | message detail
Wait.

Does this mean that Lightning was stronger before anyone knew who she was than she is now where she has like three or four games under her belt?
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#30 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:09:56 AM | message detail
To be fair Falcon was in that match
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#31 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:10:45 AM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
Wait.

Does this mean that Lightning was stronger before anyone knew who she was than she is now where she has like three or four games under her belt?


Much stronger, unless you're willing to buy DK boosting through the roof.
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#32 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/17/2013 10:13:24 AM | message detail
I can buy a bit of a boost, DKCR and all, but not through the roof.

That is amazing though. People liked her until they played as her and then just BAILED in droves.
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#33 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:13:31 AM | message detail
I have reservations about this smart voter theory. Not that voters aren't smart (clearly, they must be for DK is winning today), but you think these smart voters that are abandoning Falco would give up voting for DK when they see that the big ape has a 10% lead on Lightning. Yet, we're not seeing that.
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Drop it to the floor...
#34 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:14:04 AM | message detail
And if you're willing to buy DK boosting that much then this isn't really a bomb from Lightning! It's more of a Terra/Revan situation, where Terra boosted to like double her original strength.
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#35 | LOZLTTP | Posted 8/17/2013 10:15:34 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Light to the final 9 too? I feel your pain dude... oh well, at least there's the expert.


yeah

I still can't believe how horribly wrong I was
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#36 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:15:57 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Although maybe that won't be as much of a factor here, since it doesn't look like Lightning's going to stand much of a chance of getting near DK for long! If I'd withheld my vote longer, I probably would've voted for Falco, but when I saw DK with that type of lead, I didn't want to risk it.


And that's the thing. At a certain point, we should see Falco start getting a lot more big updates if this SFF theory holds true. I don't think we're gonna see that.
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Drop it to the floor...
#37 | Achromatic | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:20 AM | message detail
To be fair to be able to suppress Falco this horribly DK had to have received a major boost because he was scheduled for a 55-45 on Falco in 2k10.
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#38 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:36 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
I have reservations about this smart voter theory. Not that voters aren't smart (clearly, they must be for DK is winning today), but you think these smart voters that are abandoning Falco would give up voting for DK when they see that the big ape has a 10% lead on Lightning. Yet, we're not seeing that.


It's about seeing DK *threatened*. They're not looking at the score before they vote. They see a Nintendo representatives and a Square representative, and vote for the strongest Nintendo representative to ensure that character's victory. We even see it in matches like Dante/Leon, which is actually a 52/48 match in its cleanest setting. But when Dante gets threatened, Leon voters abandon him to save Dante.
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#39 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:46 AM | message detail
I have reservations about this smart voter theory. Not that voters aren't smart (clearly, they must be for DK is winning today), but you think these smart voters that are abandoning Falco would give up voting for DK when they see that the big ape has a 10% lead on Lightning. Yet, we're not seeing that.

Do people check the results before voting?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#40 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/17/2013 10:17:05 AM | message detail
superange128 posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
If Falco can keep making contests then Diddy deserves to get back in.


I guess you have a point. But looking at this...


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Alucard_vs_Captain_Falcon_vs_Diddy_Kong_vs_Kratos_Aurion_2008

What the hell, Diddy??


him beating Kratos Aurion with LFF actually makes him pretty good to me

he'll probably be a low midcarder now


I'd consider beating Kratos Aurion while SFFed good if Kratos Aurion wasn't weak, weak, WEAK.

That being said, I'd expect Diddy Kong to look respectable now.

To be fair Falcon was in that match

Maybe, but why did he just roll over and die against Captain Falcon, who I'd honestly have expected him to try and put up something resembling a fight against???
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#41 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:18:34 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
To be fair to be able to suppress Falco this horribly DK had to have received a major boost because he was scheduled for a 55-45 on Falco in 2k10.


Falco's presence in 2010 is a tentative guess - he is behind Mario/Falco SFF. It's very possible he's just weak enough to get SFFed like this.
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#42 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:19:31 AM | message detail
I think this match makes Luigi/Big Boss a helluva lot more interesting. Ness is going to die as soon as that first vote gets counted.
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Drop it to the floor...
#43 | superange128 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:19:43 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
superange128 posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
If Falco can keep making contests then Diddy deserves to get back in.


I guess you have a point. But looking at this...


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Alucard_vs_Captain_Falcon_vs_Diddy_Kong_vs_Kratos_Aurion_2008

What the hell, Diddy??


him beating Kratos Aurion with LFF actually makes him pretty good to me

he'll probably be a low midcarder now


I'd consider beating Kratos Aurion while SFFed good if Kratos Aurion wasn't weak, weak, WEAK.

That being said, I'd expect Diddy Kong to look respectable now.

To be fair Falcon was in that match

Maybe, but why did he just roll over and die against Captain Falcon, who I'd honestly have expected him to try and put up something resembling a fight against???


Diddy is only in Brawl while Falcon was in all 3 Smash bames
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#44 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 10:20:30 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
I think this match makes Luigi/Big Boss a helluva lot more interesting. Ness is going to die as soon as that first vote gets counted.


I assumed that might be the case, but I always picked Big Boss on the assumption he's just straight up stronger than Luigi. He beat Kirby's face in harder than Luigi ever did.
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#45 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/17/2013 10:20:42 AM | message detail
Falco seems like someone who can do decent if he's the only Nintendo character in the poll.

And then collapse against any Nintendo character of strength.
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#46 | superange128 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:21:55 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Falco seems like someone who can do decent if he's the only Nintendo character in the poll.

And then collapse against any Nintendo character of strength.


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Vincent_Valentine_vs_Falco_Lombardi_vs_Scorpion_vs_Gordon_Freeman_2008
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#47 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/17/2013 10:23:23 AM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
It's about seeing DK *threatened*. They're not looking at the score before they vote. They see a Nintendo representatives and a Square representative, and vote for the strongest Nintendo representative to ensure that character's victory. We even see it in matches like Dante/Leon, which is actually a 52/48 match in its cleanest setting. But when Dante gets threatened, Leon voters abandon him to save Dante.


charmander posted...
Do people check the results before voting?


I would think these smart voters would check the results first before placing their vote (like Tsunami). I would think people would double-check before taking a vote away from their favorite character within the match.
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Drop it to the floor...
#48 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 10:23:17 AM | message detail | (edited)
Quick, rank the following characters in order of contest strength:

Ridley
Falco
Marth
Peach
Midna
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#49 | VideoboysaysCube | Posted 8/17/2013 10:22:58 AM | message detail
Classic characters are really dominating this contest. I think part of the reason is because of the low votals. If we take what SBAllen said about most people not accessing the home page, that means the "hardcore" demographic of the site are the only ones who take part in these polls, which means older gamers and less casuals.
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#50 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/17/2013 10:22:59 AM | message detail
Just logged in.

lol lightning
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