Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1114

#201 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/17/2013 4:14:55 AM | message detail
Zelda impressing, Pikachu and Missingno failing to impress, Kratos puts on a lackluster showing, Duke Nukem sucking.

Watch Charizard fail to break 50% against Riku and Nier and the stats topic continue trying to justify Charizard > Mega Man.
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#202 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 4:17:24 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
I decided to look at round 2 and realized I was already hesitant on the first match

Raiden is a turd and Yoshi is going to get destroyed by Link, most likely. I'm not sure which one is going to be the bigger turd. Like, if it was anyone that had any semblance of strength I would go with the non-Yoshi option but... Raiden man. Raiden


Raiden's not fodder and will reap virtually every Link anti-vote there is available. Raiden has a much greater chance of making Link look bad - real bad - than he does of losing to a Yoshi that couldn't even get 20% the last time he was matched up with Link.
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#203 | Random_Taco568 | Posted 8/17/2013 4:23:42 AM | message detail
Sucks that Yoshi is gonna be meat for Link. He is often praised on being the best character in the Mario series which I agree on.
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#204 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 4:24:12 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Raiden has a much greater chance of making Link look bad - real bad - than he does of losing to a Yoshi that couldn't even get 20% the last time he was matched up with Link.


Eh, Yoshi should hold up better than that this time. Remember, Link was barely able to get 70% on Luigi last time. Link's SFF powers have definitely waned a bit, which makes this a bit harder to call in Raiden's favor.

Still rolling with Raiden though.
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#205 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 4:28:41 AM | message detail
I considered Luigi's performance, but in that match he was the only place for anti-votes to go and this format just seems to magnify SFF more than it has any right to. Raiden's performance against Waluigi is also deceptive, thanks to the early and surprisingly vigorous 4chan rally - the post-rally updates had Raiden often doubling him.

If nothing else, Revengeance is probably worth something and he stands out like crazy in that sea of green.
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#206 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 4:29:53 AM | message detail
Yeah, I think Raiden's a bit stronger now due to REVENGEANCE as well, but Yoshi's still probably a decent bit stronger than him as is.
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#207 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 4:30:46 AM | message detail
He really doesn't though. He looks like an unappealing piece of scrap metal against two bright and happy Nintendo characters.

I'm taking Raiden > Yoshi regardless.
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#208 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 4:32:15 AM | message detail
Oh yeah, Yoshi v Raiden is no contest for Yoshi. But unless Raiden just completely falls off a cliff, even in relation to earlier years, if Link isn't able to SFF Yoshi enough to lose to Raiden I'm going to be really disappointed in the so-called 'King of SFF'.
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#209 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 6:14:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Am I the only one who thinks that Raiden and Shepard won't benefit at all from stand-out factor?

In Shepard's case, he just looks like a Generic McDude put against two distinctive-looking Japanese females. One of which should be quite iconic. Aeris > Shepard still doesn't sound right though, even though I'm supporting Aeris there.

Yeah I remember switching to Aeris > Shepard and Vincent > Sonic out of my own (newfound) like for both the FFVII characters involved. I backed out of the former, but not out of the latter. I figured that since I had just become an instant Vincent fan on finding him and the board was picking him for an upset special, that I'd just go with it.
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#210 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 6:13:39 AM | message detail
I know you enjoy being annoying, but please stop intentionally misusing terms.
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#211 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 6:15:10 AM | message detail
Okay I should have probably just said comparatively generic Western male.
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#212 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 6:25:44 AM | message detail | (edited)
Sticking out like a sore thumb isn't about being a bright and shiny character, it's about standing apart from the chaff. Saying things like "Raiden doesn't stand out from Link/Yoshi" is just so vapid.

Reminder that this picture:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-35.jpg

Resulted in *this* little gem:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3278

Liquid doesn't even look good there, but he's a world apart from the other characters.

Edit: Or how could you forget about this little gem:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-25.jpg

Resulting in this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3268 (Luigi no chance)
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#213 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/17/2013 6:50:55 AM | message detail
Snake is weak as hell if he can only beat Kirby by that much.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#214 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 6:52:47 AM | message detail
spoilers that's not Snake
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#215 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/17/2013 6:55:16 AM | message detail
You expect FFVII fans to know the difference between Snake and Big Boss. They can't even distinguish the gender of Sephiroth.
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#216 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 6:55:55 AM | message detail
The more people think he's Snake the better it'll be against Luigi so I don't mind

Green dude can barely even break 52% on Kirbster after all
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#217 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 6:56:46 AM | message detail
Let's just settle this right now

what gender is Sephiroth
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#218 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 6:57:07 AM | message detail
Sephiroth is Sephiroth

That is the gender
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#219 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 6:59:34 AM | message detail
Match LXXX: (4) Lightning vs. (15) Donkey Kong vs. (24) Falco Lombardi

Previous Contest

Lightning – 2010
36.14% against Sonic the Hedgehog

Donkey Kong – 2010
43.71% against Vivi

Falco Lombardi – 2010
18.96% against Mario

Analysis

Falco gets fed to another Nintendo character where he cannot win. Falco may be able to avoid SFF against Donkey Kong, he is a bit of a fan favourite in Melee and Marth was able to withstand a massive SFF hit. Still the only thing Falco will be doing here is acting like a massive anchor on Donkey Kong possibly giving Lightning and illegitimate win.

Lightning made her first appearance in a contest before her game was released in North America and she was still able to put 36% on Sonic. The big question now is where is Lightning now. She can either be stronger now that the game is released plus she has appeared in other games or she can be weaker due to Final Fantasy XIII not living up to the hype and the average reaction towards her has become more apathetic. If it is the former she should win easily, but if it is the latter Donkey Kong would have a decent chance if Falco was not in the poll.

Donkey Kong has finally appeared in a game people like with Donkey Kong Country Returns. However, the game might not give him a big boost because he is quite well known already and the game was released at a time where the Wii was becoming a joke on GameFAQs. Regardless Donkey Kong does have decent strength and would not lose by much to 2010 Lightning.

I feel Falco ruined a match that could have had a lot of debate. While it is reasonable that Lightning is even stronger than her 2010 self if she remained constant of even dropped a little Donkey Kong would be here for the upset. Now the only way Donkey Kong can win is if Lightning really dropped in strength, which I guess is possible, but I do not see happening.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Lightning > Donkey Kong and Falco Lombardi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Lightning – 43.66%, Donkey Kong – 36.73%, Falco Lombardi – 19.61%
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#220 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:04:44 AM | message detail
My main deal with Lightning is this seems like a match that she could just straight up drop - even with Falco - but it's such an obvious Nintendo v Square proxy that I can't see her folding completely. And that's probably enough for the win.
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#221 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 7:10:02 AM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
Sticking out like a sore thumb isn't about being a bright and shiny character, it's about standing apart from the chaff. Saying things like "Raiden doesn't stand out from Link/Yoshi" is just so vapid.

Reminder that this picture:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-35.jpg

Resulted in *this* little gem:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3278

Liquid doesn't even look good there, but he's a world apart from the other characters.

Edit: Or how could you forget about this little gem:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-25.jpg

Resulting in this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3268 (Luigi no chance)


I understand where you're coming from. I think I was just thinking of various times this contest where sticking out like a sore thumb didn't benefit the character in question. Master Chief's match comes to mind, but I remember others. I think Juliet Starling as well.

EDIT: Also Sarah Kerrigan, Big Daddy, Otacon, and Sandbag.
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#222 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 7:07:34 AM | message detail
You don't know what it means to stand out, so stop arguing the point.
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#223 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:07:36 AM | message detail
MC and Juliet probably do *worse* without the setups that they had. That they did so poorly despite those factors reflects very badly on their strengths.
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#224 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 7:07:52 AM | message detail
#225 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/17/2013 7:12:16 AM | message detail | (edited)
What about Juliet really stood out anyway. Being paired with Tharja was one of the few match possibilities that actually cancels out most of what would make her stand out
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#226 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:10:58 AM | message detail
Oh right, and the other big note - DK may have very well disappointed in every single contest match he's had, ever... with the possibility of the Vercetti and MC matchups, both of which he choked away anyhow. Magus's got nothing on this guy.
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#227 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 7:11:56 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
MC and Juliet probably do *worse* without the setups that they had. That they did so poorly despite those factors reflects very badly on their strengths.


You're probably right.

I just find it mindless to assume that any character that stands out will overperform, though then again you cite a good example with that Liquid Snake match. I think those three matches in a row in Crono's division where Kerrigan, Big Daddy, and Otacon all fared worse than expected despite standing out in their match pics.
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#228 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 7:13:49 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
What about Juliet really stood out anyway. Being paired with Tharja was one of the few match possibilities that actually cancels out most of what would make her stand out


I remember Ngamer saying that her light brown skin color contrasted from the darker pics that the other two characters got. He fooled me into picking Juliet for first (not that I have anything against Ngamer or mean to specifically blame him!), marking my first -6 in the Expert Challenge.

At least I had Tharja in my bracket.
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#229 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:17:24 AM | message detail
Kerrigan didn't stand out, Missile stood out and absolutely rocked the poll. Otacon did better than I expected, that Magus upset was asking too much from a new, ridiculously weak MGS character. Big Daddy both dropped and was massively overrated to begin with, so there was no way standing out would have made him look good no matter what the pic disparity.

I'm of the opinion that STF is a fairly mild effect in all but the most extreme cases (usually, you're looking at fanbase splits causing more of a problem than standing out in the match), but Raiden is an extremely obvious example of it, going back to the main point. He's so different from Link/Yoshi that he changes the entire dynamic of that poll. Not enough to win obviously, but I'd be stunned if Yoshi threatened.
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#230 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/17/2013 7:18:29 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Oh right, and the other big note - DK may have very well disappointed in every single contest match he's had, ever... with the possibility of the Vercetti and MC matchups, both of which he choked away anyhow. Magus's got nothing on this guy.


You got that right.
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#231 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 7:19:48 AM | message detail
DK has games people actually like now with the great Donkey Kong Country Returns, surely that would count for something right

right
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#232 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:20:23 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
DK has games people actually like now with the great Donkey Kong Country Returns, surely that would count for something right

right


He might not lose to Falco!
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#233 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 7:21:58 AM | message detail
If only he could've gotten Returns before the site turned against the Wii!
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#234 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:30:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Nintendo characters, unless they're not well-known, very rarely boost from games as it is. About the only solid example of a game being tied to a longtime Ninty character's strength was Twilight Princess with Link - and even then, it wasn't even the game, it was the E3 trailer and deafening hype juicing his strength.

Everyone knows who Donkey Kong is, he's been in all the Smashes... he's just not liked by the Nintendo fanbase. That's basically it. Unless DKCR got some penetration and actively did something to change people's opinions of him, he's gonna be as sorry as ever.

Edit: I would have also added Samus and Metroid Prime... but that's just the point - Samus wasn't that well-known outside of Smash, and the MP series vaulted her from middling around Sonic level to the upper tiers of the elite.
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#235 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 7:31:22 AM | message detail
How can people not like Donkey Kong tho

He's a big cool ape wearing a f***in' tie with his initials on it, for God's sake

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/7/71/DoK.jpg/250px-DoK.jpg
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F*** BT
#236 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/17/2013 7:31:51 AM | message detail
Speaking of which, is Stand Out Factor going to benefit Caim any during the bonus match? He certainly looks different from his goofy-looking competition.
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#237 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/17/2013 7:34:35 AM | message detail
There's no such thing as NintendoFAQs. Just MarioLinkSamusFAQs. Wouldn't be surprised if Donkey Kong could barely keep up with Falco.
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#238 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 7:35:23 AM | message detail
Where does Pokemon fit into the MarioLinkSamusFAQs

losing to Crono, that's where
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F*** BT
#239 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/17/2013 7:35:51 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamusFAQs? This is something I can support! *imagines what gamefaqs would be like with LMS in charge*
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#240 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/17/2013 7:36:21 AM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
MarioLinkSamusFAQs.


A place where thousands of different versions of LMS use the message boards
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#241 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:39:53 AM | message detail
The Pokemon are a real wild card, but I feel this format really plays to their strengths (which is why I have them going so far). On their best days they can give arguably two of the top three characters in the contest a scare... while on their worse they can't break 54.5% on Kratos. Definitely to be underestimated at one's peril, especially with good bracket setups (which this contest has set up for them in spades).
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#242 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 7:44:10 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo characters, unless they're not well-known, very rarely boost from games as it is. About the only solid example of a game being tied to a longtime Ninty character's strength was Twilight Princess with Link - and even then, it wasn't even the game, it was the E3 trailer and deafening hype juicing his strength.

Everyone knows who Donkey Kong is, he's been in all the Smashes... he's just not liked by the Nintendo fanbase. That's basically it. Unless DKCR got some penetration and actively did something to change people's opinions of him, he's gonna be as sorry as ever.

Edit: I would have also added Samus and Metroid Prime... but that's just the point - Samus wasn't that well-known outside of Smash, and the MP series vaulted her from middling around Sonic level to the upper tiers of the elite.


I see your point, but it could be argued that a huge reason for Donkey Kong being weak was that he was pretty much irrelevant compared to Link/Mario/Samus/all those darn Pokemon in between 1996 and 2010. Now DK is a huge series for Nintendo again.

Though at the same time, Nintendo itself has sunk. And DK is likely to be hit by the problem. Never mind how weak Super Mario Galaxy was in Best Game Ever 2 (I think it would do much better now, but that's only based on how it resisted SFF from Brawl/TP in the Game of the Generation poll and did 10% better on Twilight Princess than it did in Game of the Decade, despite the Brawl/TP ratio remaining pretty much the same).

Serious question: Am I the only one who thinks that Brawl, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Twilight Princess have been gradually dropping in strength?
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#243 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/17/2013 7:45:17 AM | message detail
Oh, and I think I'd take Marston safely over Travis Touchdown, so Zelda looks to have rebounded a bit. The Charizard match probably deserves more chatter, even though I'm still expecting big things from Charizard in order to neuter it (speaking of standing out in the picture, geez, lopsided much?).
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#244 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 7:46:37 AM | message detail
I think it was because of Zelda disappointing last time + POKEFEAR that caused Charizard to be the overwhelming favorite there.
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#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/17/2013 8:20:06 AM | message detail
It's best to wait and see which Charizard we are dealing with, if we get the one that easily won over Bowser Zelda does not have much of a chance.

Not that I expect to see that Charizard.
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Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#246 | White_Tiger | Posted 8/17/2013 8:24:38 AM | message detail
does anyone else think Lightning could finish third? she is probably very weak, as weak as FF12 characters the other hated FF game. I think her match against Sonic is misleading people, but that match was the result of pure FF13 hype which at that time was a massive thing .
#247 | swordz9 | Posted 8/17/2013 8:24:50 AM | message detail
30~mins til Lightning domination.
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#248 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 8:25:59 AM | message detail
Lightning finishing third would be one of the biggest bombs we've seen in a long, long time.
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#249 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 8:26:13 AM | message detail
25 mins until Lighting is dominated by a big gorilla
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F*** BT
#250 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/17/2013 8:27:22 AM | message detail
23 minutes until Lightning... does okay
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