Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1114

#151 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 10:04:26 PM | message detail
But...this performance isn't super impressive. Or if it is, we have no way to know yet.

All of Zelda's % beyond her oracle preds is coming from Sackboy.

Marston has no reason to be strong, he's definitely some level of fodder.

I truly fail to see how this performance can tell us anything at all about Zelda.
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#152 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2013 10:05:56 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Jecht also straight-up won a vote-in poll that had Sub-Zero in it.


Not quite:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3693
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#153 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 10:08:04 PM | message detail
Close enough!
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#154 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 10:09:14 PM | message detail
Zelda's not beating Charizard. She had this one chance to look good and hit it out of the park. I'm happy for that.
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#155 | swordz9 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:09:17 PM | message detail
Jecht was obviously being SFFd by the 2 other Square RPG characters in the poll.
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#156 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:11:19 PM | message detail
Wrex and Zelda to round 3 will win me the Guru

Until Cloud fails to make the finals and then it'll all be for nought
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#157 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:11:42 PM | message detail
#158 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/16/2013 10:13:47 PM | message detail
X gonna give it Ryu
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#159 | pjbasis | Posted 8/16/2013 10:14:16 PM | message detail
We'll see how Zard does before I wish I did that too.

And man why is the Kratos killer doing so bad. Luckily I had a feeling he wouldn't replicate that kind of strength and folded on my LBP fan pick
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#160 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/16/2013 10:16:43 PM | message detail
I fully expect Zard to win but it would be hilarious if the match happens and Zelda just destroys him.
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#161 | LOLContests | Posted 8/16/2013 10:17:20 PM | message detail
People are really lowballing Caim in that Bonus match topic. Normally the talk about maximum percentage numbers and minimum percentage numbers is silly, since these kinds of limits only come into play in extreme situations. However, this bonus match is that exact kind of extreme situation. I personally have Caim at 84%, but I'd be willing to make an account bet that he at least gets 66%.
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#162 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 10:20:56 PM | message detail
Just a heads-up that if Zelda someone wins, I will make it a pretty insufferable 12 hours of LoZ fanboyism on crack.
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#163 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 10:21:46 PM | message detail
Two more goddamn days until I can edit posts. This little experience has really shined light on how dyslexic I am.
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#164 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 10:21:49 PM | message detail
As far as Charizard is concerned, he's got a lot to prove...
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#165 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:21:54 PM | message detail
Trend chart from yesterday's night match:

Time | Lenneth | Claptrap | Cube | Votes
0:05 | 29.84% | 26.54% | 43.62% | 486
1:00 | 29.43% | 30.63% | 39.94% | 4965
2:00 | 30.65% | 31.82% | 37.53% | 2398
3:00 | 30.03% | 32.11% | 37.85% | 2021
4:00 | 31.99% | 30.07% | 37.94% | 1563
5:00 | 31.65% | 31.35% | 37.00% | 1308
6:00 | 33.20% | 29.81% | 37.00% | 1238
7:00 | 33.17% | 29.99% | 36.84% | 1387
8:00 | 27.61% | 32.72% | 39.67% | 1583
9:00 | 28.27% | 32.20% | 39.54% | 1730
10:00 | 29.28% | 32.86% | 37.86% | 1817
11:00 | 28.21% | 35.08% | 36.71% | 1836
12:00 | 29.43% | 34.03% | 36.54% | 1672

Cube is frontloaded. Claptrap is backloaded and almost wins an hour toward the end. Lenneth is midloaded and drops off hard once morning hits.

X-Stats:

Weighted Companion Cube – 50.00%
Claptrap – 45.46%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 44.00%

Cube's prediction percentage was 48.07%
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#166 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:22:13 PM | message detail
You're underestimating Spring Breeze.

10% on Dracula vs. 9% on Zidane
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#167 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:22:24 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Just a heads-up that if Zelda someone wins, I will make it a pretty insufferable 12 hours of LoZ fanboyism on crack.


My bracket will be willing to put up with it...!
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#168 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/16/2013 10:23:23 PM | message detail
Spring Breeze makes it a good match just because of his name imo
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#169 | pjbasis | Posted 8/16/2013 10:25:12 PM | message detail
Yeah come on, when you're opponents are Chester and Caim, Spring Breeze Dancin's name has to amount to a lot.
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#170 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:25:30 PM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | ? Block | Lyndis | Rikku | Votes
0:05 | 34.79% | 24.96% | 40.25% | 641
1:00 | 37.32% | 21.26% | 41.41% | 4938
2:00 | 37.20% | 22.47% | 40.32% | 3720
3:00 | 37.02% | 20.56% | 42.43% | 3274
4:00 | 37.85% | 19.95% | 42.20% | 2827
5:00 | 37.52% | 21.88% | 40.60% | 2665
6:00 | 38.30% | 21.37% | 40.33% | 2517
7:00 | 37.22% | 19.52% | 43.26% | 2464
8:00 | 38.38% | 20.43% | 41.19% | 2173
9:00 | 38.14% | 19.96% | 41.90% | 1859
10:00 | 37.14% | 21.05% | 41.80% | 1653
11:00 | 36.30% | 20.83% | 42.87% | 1661
12:00 | 38.34% | 19.99% | 41.67% | 1471

Surprisingly stable trends for a match with a joke character! Rikku never drops below 40% in any hour. ? Block never really threatens to win an hour either. Lyndis continues the trend of FE characters having really good early votes.

X-Stats:

Rikku – 50.00%
? Block – 47.44%
Lyndis – 33.46%

Rikku's prediction percentage was 35.60%
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#171 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 10:45:33 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Zelda's not beating Charizard. She had this one chance to look good and hit it out of the park. I'm happy for that.

Zelda had a non-zero chance at Charizard.

I don't think she will, she's a sizable underdog. But Zard could be a fraud. Unlikely, but possible.

Funny how the one guy here who is so high on this Zelda performance is probably one of the few that thinks Zelda has no shot! :)
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#172 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 10:48:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#173 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:49:54 PM | message detail
#174 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 10:50:01 PM | message detail
It depends on what Charizard we get. Do we get the one who put up 54% on Kratos and 64% on Duke Nukem? If so, then Zelda wins. Or do we get the one that put up 54% on Bowser and 46% on Mario? If we get that one, Zard wins.

More than likely, we get the pre-bandwagoned one, so I think Zelda is the favorite there.
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#175 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 10:52:49 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
It depends on what Charizard we get. Do we get the one who put up 54% on Kratos and 64% on Duke Nukem? If so, then Zelda wins. Or do we get the one that put up 54% on Bowser and 46% on Mario? If we get that one, Zard wins.

More than likely, we get the pre-bandwagoned one, so I think Zelda is the favorite there.


I'm expecting Charizard to bomb for whatever reason...
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#176 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:58:46 PM | message detail
Just curious, who's the board favorite in the next match?
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#177 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:59:05 PM | message detail
#178 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 10:59:31 PM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Just curious, who's the board favorite in the next match?


I think it's Lightning, on the grounds that DK is a notorious choker...
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#179 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 11:00:40 PM | message detail
It's Lightning on the grounds that Falco is in the match with DK. It'd be much more split in a "fair" match.
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#180 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 11:02:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
It's Lightning on the grounds that Falco is in the match with DK. It'd be much more split in a "fair" match.


DK being the most notorious choker on GameFAQs can't help his case, as I see it. Add SFF from Falco, and...
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#181 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 11:01:41 PM | message detail
Man, despite barely being above 10% as is, Sackboy is somehow still managing to completely tank percentage right now.
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#182 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 11:02:19 PM | message detail
Oh, I think Lightning would still be the favorite even in a fair match, but it certainly wouldn't be the 87% support Lightning has in the Guru right now.
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#183 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 11:03:19 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Oh, I think Lightning would still be the favorite even in a fair match, but it certainly wouldn't be the 87% support Lightning has in the Guru right now.


Agreed.
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#184 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/16/2013 11:04:14 PM | message detail | (edited)
Why is Falco trying to strike a sexy pose.

A match with a female entrant and Falco is the one going for sexy factor
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#185 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 11:03:52 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Man, despite barely being above 10% as is, Sackboy is somehow still managing to completely tank percentage right now.


Ouch. Not a good year for post-PS1 Sony mascots, eh?
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#186 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 11:03:59 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Why is Falco trying to strike a sexy pose


He got upset that Lightning refused to do the catgirl pose, so he decided to take matters into his own hands.
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#187 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/16/2013 11:04:37 PM | message detail
Ok, like I thought. So the contest won't be interesting again until Monday's day match.
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#188 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 11:04:45 PM | message detail
Hands off my bread!
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#189 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 11:15:06 PM | message detail
With Shepard's match with Aerith coming up soon, I decided to try to fiddle with numbers a little bit to see if we can't get a more accurate read on 2010 Shep. If we set Fox = Pikachu (as the Lloyd comparison roughly implies) and adjust Shepard accordingly, Shepard comes out to 22.89% on Link (or roughly around the level of The Boss).

Using Aerith's 2010 number would result in a 61.50% win over 2010 Shepard, so that's quite a gap Shepard has to bridge, and that's not including any SFF Auron may have managed to inflict (though it would've been pretty minor since Auron didn't exactly blow her out). Of course, Aerith might have come down to the field a bit, which would mean Shepard wouldn't need quite as big of a boost to get there.

Should be interesting.
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#190 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/16/2013 11:16:32 PM | message detail
It's like this board has never witnessed blowouts before, if Amaterasu could go out there and 76/24 Vyse, then what's so surprising about Zelda 70/30 John who Marston.
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#191 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/17/2013 12:28:06 AM | message detail
> Votes. "Oh, good thing I went high on Zelda here. Wait, wow is Sackboy ever sucking."

From 35% on Leon to this dreck in three years.
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#192 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/17/2013 12:34:57 AM | message detail | (edited)
I love John Marston. Go John!
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#193 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/17/2013 12:58:44 AM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
If Marston is anything like the GTA characters, he should be putting up big numbers in Europe over night.


Looks like that is happening in this match. He is rising with the night vote.
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#194 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/17/2013 3:36:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well, that answers the question of whether Sackboy has fallen. He's became turbofodder! Marston gets roughly the same on Zelda as Travis Touchdown got, and still manages to 70/30 the Boy of Suck. My Expert gets whacked again thanks to Sackboy's shenanigans. How did this weakling beat Kratos A in 2010? Wow. Decent showing by Zelda in the middle of all this - Charizard may have more of a match in round two than many were expecting.

Round 1, Match 80

(4) Lightning
(15) Donkey Kong
(24) Falco Lombardi

Low-mid Square v low-mid Nintendo v low-mid Nintendo. Well, it's certainly possible that Lightning has fallen off the map since her game was released to a tepid reception, but if she's still anywhere around 36% on Sonic she should be comparable with her opponents individually. I sense though, that people actually quite like Lightning, even while they don't much care for the game, and Square's been pushing her big time, so I think she'll have held most, if not all, of her strength. Donkey Kong has been blown out by Tidus and Vivi in the past, and that was while he wasn't splitting votes with Falco.

Middling to weakish Nintendo characters have a tendency to LFF each other really badly, often because they'd actually be pretty decent if they ever managed to get fair draws. Falco looked like terrible fodder against Mario in 2010, for example, but got 35% on Vincent in 2008 when in a better position. He should be exactly the sort of character who's too strong for Donkey Kong to SFF and to weak to actually threaten not to come third, especially if DK has boosted from his recent and upcoming releases (which he should have, DKCR is a great game!). Lightning should be able to reap the benefits.

Bracket: Lightning
Expert: Lightning > DK > Falco
Oracle: Lightning - 43%; Donkey Kong - 34%; Falco Lombardi - 23%
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#195 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 3:37:39 AM | message detail
Looking forward to round 2 if for no other reason than to start seeing X-Stats falling more and more into place as the characters become more connected.
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#196 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/17/2013 3:42:39 AM | message detail
I decided to look at round 2 and realized I was already hesitant on the first match

Raiden is a turd and Yoshi is going to get destroyed by Link, most likely. I'm not sure which one is going to be the bigger turd. Like, if it was anyone that had any semblance of strength I would go with the non-Yoshi option but... Raiden man. Raiden
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#197 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/17/2013 3:43:23 AM | message detail | (edited)
RDR is one of the strongest non RPG western games on this site. I'd take it over any COD and any GTA easily. Horrible performance by Marston. Zelda looks strong here. Will crush X.
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#198 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/17/2013 3:44:30 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Well, that answers the question of whether Sackboy has fallen. He's became turbofodder! Marston gets roughly the same on Zelda as Travis Touchdown got, and still manages to 70/30 the Boy of Suck. My Expert gets whacked again thanks to Sackboy's shenanigans. How did this weakling beat Kratos A in 2010? Wow. Decent showing by Zelda in the middle of all this - Charizard may have more of a match in round two than many were expecting.

Round 1, Match 80

(4) Lightning
(15) Donkey Kong
(24) Falco Lombardi

Low-mid Square v low-mid Nintendo v low-mid Nintendo. Well, it's certainly possible that Lightning has fallen off the map since her game was released to a tepid reception, but if she's still anywhere around 36% on Sonic she should be comparable with her opponents individually. I sense though, that people actually quite like Lightning, even while they don't much care for the game, and Square's been pushing her big time, so I think she'll have held most, if not all, of her strength. Donkey Kong has been blown out by Tidus and Vivi in the past, and that was while he wasn't splitting votes with Falco.

Middling to weakish Nintendo characters have a tendency to LFF each other really badly, often because they'd actually be pretty decent if they ever managed to get fair draws. Falco looked like terrible fodder against Mario in 2010, for example, but got 35% on Vincent in 2008 when in a better position. He should be exactly the sort of character who's too strong for Donkey Kong to SFF and to weak to actually threaten not to come third, especially if DK has boosted from his recent and upcoming releases (which he should have, DKCR is a great game!). Lightning should be able to reap the benefits.

Bracket: Lightning
Expert: Lightning > DK > Falco
Oracle: Lightning - 43%; Donkey Kong - 34%; Falco Lombardi - 23%



LOL @ Lightning being favourite. something is not right there.
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#199 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 3:45:21 AM | message detail
LOL at thinking DK can actually face another Nintendo character and hold up

That's why
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#200 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/17/2013 3:54:50 AM | message detail
http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=80

87% for Lightning, 13% for DK. Nothing unconventional about favouring Lightning here.
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