Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1114

#101 | Qwaar | Posted 8/16/2013 9:10:50 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Eh, Sackboy could potentially be a bit stronger than Marston in Europe(I'm not really basing this on anything, just guessing).

I think that's his only hope if he wants to make it close.


If anything I would have thought that Marston would have the advantage here in Europe.
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#102 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 9:10:51 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Eh, Sackboy could potentially be a bit stronger than Marston in Europe(I'm not really basing this on anything, just guessing).

I think that's his only hope if he wants to make it close.


If Marston is anything like the GTA characters, he should be putting up big numbers in Europe over night.
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#103 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/16/2013 9:13:09 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
73------1------------100.00
72------5------------20.00
71------14----------50.00
70------40----------37.50
69------76----------27.63
68------99----------33.33
67------112--------32.14
66------101--------34.65
65------118--------29.66
64------105--------32.38
63------139--------34.53
62------210--------29.52
61------233--------30.90
60------349--------26.93
59------454--------29.52
58------535--------30.47
57------646--------28.95
56------810--------30.12
55------957--------31.14
54------966--------32.61
53------959--------30.76
52------1017------31.96
51------838--------35.56
50------837--------35.48
49------708--------36.58
48------665--------42.86
47------552--------42.93
46------521--------43.57
45------445--------42.92
44------415--------42.65
43------346--------43.35
42------310--------46.13
41------250--------45.20
40------203--------47.29
39------178--------41.57
38------155--------46.45
37------148--------44.59
36------132--------31.82
35------91----------37.36
34------81----------43.21
33------73----------39.73
32------71----------38.03
31------42----------35.71
30------39----------33.33
29------31----------38.71
28------24----------33.33
27------30----------53.33
26------19----------47.37
25------14----------42.86
24------12----------33.33
23------3------------100.00
22------6------------66.67
21------12----------50.00
20------4------------25.00
19------3------------33.33
18------3------------66.67
17------5------------80.00
16------3------------66.67
15------1------------100.00
14------1------------0.00
13------1------------0.00
12------2------------100.00
11------2------------50.00
10------1------------100.00
9--------14----------85.71
8--------1------------0.00
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------4------------0.00
4--------1------------0.00
3--------5------------0.00
2--------4------------25.00
1--------1------------0.00

A tough match all around. The last -4 (73 points) get it right but almost every -5 (72 points) gets it wrong. Contest knowledge doesn't seem t have much of an effect as prediction percentage is around 30 all the way into the middle tiers. The lower tiers somehow do slightly better and reach the 40s, though.

9 people fell off the Top 49. greengravy294, InvisibleOmega, jacko_vdz, JaySolano, KommunistKoala, Koopa95, Lord_Kawaii, Qwaar and RBYAlwaysWins did not have Rikku winning.

20 people got it wrong and survived. ChenKenichiFan, LordoftheMorons, voltch, Xcarvenger, Billy_Gates, Denzokuken, Hagankefs, Jobi1, metaIslugg, PSU_Jer, Rex915, ahirsch101, AlecTrevylan006, Als52, ChronoT7, Clichokeet, creativename, DarkFalconX, frodragon and GloriousSweater also did not have Rikku winning.
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#104 | ecksgem | Posted 8/16/2013 9:13:46 PM | message detail
I figured Sackboy would fail in a poll with another well-known, well-liked character, but not this badly!
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#105 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:14:24 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Mr. Game & Watch – Round 1 – 10500
2. Ike – Round 1 – 11023
3. Kefka – Round 1 – 11443
4. Urdnot Wrex – Round 1 – 11842
5. Catherine – Round 1 – 12092
6. Ness – Round 1 – 12979
7. Rikku – Round 1 – 12980
8. Altair – Round 1 – 13157
9. Yuna – Round 1 – 13279
10. Gilgamesh – Round 1 – 13442

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Waluigi – Round 1 – 14794
2. Fox McCloud – Round 1 – 13207
3. Ridley – Round 1 – 13037
4. Terra Branford – Round 1 – 11893
5. ? Block – Round 1 – 11714
6. Neku Sakuraba – Round 1 – 11493
7. Master Chief – Round 1 – 11426
8. KOS-MOS – Round 1 – 10944
9. Proto Man – Round 1 – 10854
10. Cecil Harvey – Round 1 – 10684

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield – Round 1 – 15.40%
2. Urdnot Wrex vs. Cecil Harvey vs. Pit – Round 1 – 23.71%
3. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26.40%
4. Catherine vs. Neku Sakaruba vs. Vaas Montenegro – Round 1 – 30.43%
5. Pokemon Trainer Blue vs. Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – Round 1 – 32.98%
6. Rikku vs. ? Block vs. Lyndis – Round 1 – 35.60%
7. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 38.19%
8. Wario vs. Creeper vs. The King of All Cosmos – Round 1 – 39.12%
9. Yoshimitsu vs. Lu Bu vs. Groose – Round 1 – 39.13%
10. Gilgamesh vs. Booker DeWitt vs. Kaim Argonar – Round 1 – 40.89%
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Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#106 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:15:01 PM | message detail
Assuming constant Sackboy and Kratos, what does John Marston get on Zero?
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#107 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:16:37 PM | message detail
Wow Sackboy, you've really fallen
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#108 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:16:45 PM | message detail
Ganondorf and Zelda look like absolute killers. Link may be getting anti-voted, but based on the muscle flex we have on display here, I'm really not worried about the series. In fact, Nintendo in general has looked quite good I believe, with the biggest bombs being either brand new (Groose) or being half joke (Missingno, Block) in a site that seems finished with the whole joke thing.
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#109 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/16/2013 9:16:58 PM | message detail
Where is Zelda right now assuming a constant Sackboy?
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#110 | Sorozone | Posted 8/16/2013 9:17:49 PM | message detail
Damn Sackboy, you are getting murdered. And I just checked my expert, and I have you second. How can you do this to me.
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#111 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:18:49 PM | message detail
Zelda is doing well, but her performance is being inflated by Sackboy being so bad. Her vs. Marston is a lot more normal.
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#112 | RAMS | Posted 8/16/2013 9:20:49 PM | message detail
Didn't expect Sackboy would be losing this badly. Glad I changed my expert last minute to John Marston as I thought the match pic would give him an edge slightly.
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#113 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 9:20:53 PM | message detail
It'll probably end up like a 70-30 for Zelda on Marston, and assuming Marston is like GTA level character strength that sounds normal for her
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#114 | vcharon | Posted 8/16/2013 9:21:50 PM | message detail
Sackboy STILL falling.
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#115 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:22:04 PM | message detail
Is it too late to put Sackboy in the bonus poll instead of Caim? >_>
#116 | abdou | Posted 8/16/2013 9:22:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
I expected sackboy to be weak and have him third in my expert but wow this is pathetic ..he has become turbo fodder
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#117 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:22:14 PM | message detail
Her performance on Marston still looks way better than what she managed against Ezio and Jecht last time. If she holds 60%+ until the end, this is far more impressive than any match she had in 2010. She actually has a higher percentage on Marston right now than she did on Travis Touchdown. Very, very strong.

SKYWARD SWORD ZELDA THE BEST ZELDA
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#118 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/16/2013 9:22:27 PM | message detail
There's really no point in assuming a "constant" Sackboy now >_>
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#119 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/16/2013 9:23:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
Another +4. That's the 5th one in a row! I need to stop being so conservative ><

Down to 7th on the normal bracket, up to 7th on expert. Might be able to briefly snag #1 if Shep wins and DK loses as expected.

Also, lol Sackboy
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#120 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2013 9:22:53 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
So, it looks like we are finally going to find out what happens when the very weak force bumps into the easily movable object.


Best thing I read recently. Great job on getting the match too, Luster!


Sackboy...not so great a job. S*** -- shouldn't have switched from Marston. Zelda's trying to put up Solid Snake-numbers here!
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#121 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 9:24:08 PM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Is it too late to put Sackboy in the bonus poll instead of Caim? >_>


Sackboy still would have beaten any of the characters in the bonus poll.

I think Sackboy has had the biggest drop off in strength since 2010. In 2010, he was bordering right on the fodder line and has dropped all the way down to being really bad turbofodder.
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#122 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/16/2013 9:24:10 PM | message detail
Man this performance is nuts. She just keeps going up.

Zard better impress on Sunday.
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#123 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:24:29 PM | message detail
Hmm... I think Sackboy became known in a time where the PS3 still kinda sucked, so he just became a Sony mascot by virtue of being the only guy standing in line. Now that we have Drake and Kratos (on PS3), there is little need for the Sack.

That's my way of rationalizing this, anyway.
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#124 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:26:08 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
Is it too late to put Sackboy in the bonus poll instead of Caim? >_>


Sackboy still would have beaten any of the characters in the bonus poll.

I think Sackboy has had the biggest drop off in strength since 2010. In 2010, he was bordering right on the fodder line and has dropped all the way down to being really bad turbofodder.


I was joking, but I actually forgot just how bad Caim was until I looked up the results again.
#125 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:26:31 PM | message detail
StarStormScream posted...
There's really no point in assuming a "constant" Sackboy now >_>


What, you mean Zelda wouldn't get 67.85% on Link?
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#126 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:27:57 PM | message detail
Comparing this performance to her performances on Ezio and Jecht is kinda nonsensical. People actually care about Ezio and Jecht. Marston is one step away from a McDude - not quite, but yeah. I don't think he'd be that much different from Travis Touchdown one way or another.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#127 | swordz9 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:30:32 PM | message detail
This isn't really Zelda looking impressive to me. I don't think she looks bad, but the competition is just super weak. Even Riku would probably have 60%~+ on these guys.
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#128 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:31:56 PM | message detail
I don't think Marston is super weak (wouldn't have picked him to get 2nd otherwise). Riku wouldn't have 60%+ here.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#129 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:32:55 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
So, it looks like we are finally going to find out what happens when the very weak force bumps into the easily movable object.


Well done.
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Drop it to the floor...
#130 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2013 9:34:06 PM | message detail
To think, LBP was once our very first original-GotY:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3360

Now see how well GameFAQs has responded to its sequels:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3719
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4586
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4829
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4890


Packitupboy.
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#131 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:34:37 PM | message detail
Nonsensical? I find that pretty insulting dude.
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#132 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:34:38 PM | message detail
I don't think Marston is this weak, but Sackboy has fallen off the ****ing event horizon here. Dude went from upsetting Kratos Aurion to getting slaughtered by Zelda.
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Drop it to the floor...
#133 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 9:35:01 PM | message detail
Marston is probably a fodder line guy. This is all just Sackboy bombing, unless you think Marston is a solid midcarder and Zelda is now noble nine material.
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#134 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:38:51 PM | message detail
It wasn't meant to be insulting, but I definitely don't agree with what you're saying. You're comparing a character from FFX and the main character of the Assassin's Creed series to the main character of a cowboy GTA spinoff, who is completely untested. Zelda isn't the first character that's been able to blow out newer western characters in this contest (Vivi got this exact % against Adam Jensen just a little while ago), so while it's a good performance, I don't see what makes it a special one.
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#135 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/16/2013 9:40:19 PM | message detail
I expected Marston to be stronger than any GTA guy is nowadays which is why I picked him for second.

He's a lot more likable than any GTA character is too. Most people who played Red Dead seem to like him.
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#136 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 9:40:27 PM | message detail
Yeah this performance doesn't tell us anything about Zelda.

Easy to get high %ages when one character is trying for single digits.

Her numbers on Marston seem expected, and he's an unknown anyway.
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#137 | swordz9 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:40:30 PM | message detail
I don't think it would be impossible for Riku to have 60%. Sackboy is looking so bad right now he'd probably lose to every Tales of character! Marston isn't looking too bad all things considered I guess, but he's still probably some level of fodder.
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#138 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:45:28 PM | message detail
Didn't Jecht have an awful win over Ratchet? He also barely beat Phoenix in a time where Phoenix was very very likely weaker than he is now. Jecht looked like a disappointing winner in 2010 until he ran into Zelda, at which point he suddenly looked like a stud. Zelda had an off year in 2010 and this performance looks way better than anything she did three years ago. Marston's game was quite well received (it's a much bigger deal than Adam Jensen's game) and from what I understand, he was a very well received protagonist as well. He should have no trouble with the likes of Travis Touchdown, who managed a higher percentage against Zelda than what Johnny is mustering tonight. It's good to see Zelda with her best performance since 2008.
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#139 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 8/16/2013 9:47:47 PM | message detail
Maybe some of these big drops have to do with characters simply representing something. Big Daddy and Sackboy have been two of the biggest falls of this contest, and they both simply exist to represent their games, without really having much personality themselves. Perhaps that archetype can only be so strong, and that falls out when people have multiple options.
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#140 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/16/2013 9:50:04 PM | message detail
Sackboy almost has the same percentage here as he did against Solid Snake, Vivi, and Wesker.

So bad
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#141 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:51:33 PM | message detail
Phoenix and Ratchet this year have more than validated Jecht's performances, I think. Jecht also straight-up won a vote-in poll that had Sub-Zero in it. People may have viewed it as a terrible Zelda performance or whatever, but they were wrong.

And while Marston would've beaten Travis back in 2010 or whenever his game came out, it isn't 2010 anymore. His kind of character isn't going to be remembered for years to come, while No More Heroes & Travis has a distinctive design and a crazy fanbase. Run the match tomorrow, and I wouldn't know who to take.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#142 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:52:27 PM | message detail
(Also, Travis is also likely weaker than he was in 2010, but he has less room and less reason to drop than Marston for the reasons I said)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#143 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/16/2013 9:55:26 PM | message detail
I do wonder if Zelda could actually be benefitting from the Skyward Sword pic.

We've clearly seen this contest that 15% of the site will vote for a moe anime girl over anything.
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#144 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/16/2013 9:56:18 PM | message detail
Should have saved Skyward Sword pic for Charizard

Ride the kawaii factor towards victory
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#145 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:56:52 PM | message detail
I still think that Zelda will lose easily to the Zard, but this is her best performance in years. It really IS all about what you do relative to the pre-match Oracle expectations, but "find reasons why the Oracle blowout isn't impressive." Zelda looks great here. So did Ganondorf. After Groose bombed and Link had the contest's biggest underperformance (though one that lower all our subsequent expectations), the series needed this.
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#146 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:58:16 PM | message detail
uhhh that "but" should be a "not"
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#147 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 10:00:08 PM | message detail
I mean, I guess it could technically be her best performance in years, I just don't think that'd be saying too much! I don't think this is much better, if at all, from what she did before. I also don't think what she did before was bad or anything, so hey.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#148 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:02:27 PM | message detail
Darn, now I'm in that group of users tied at 50th on the leaderboard.

so uh should this make me feel any better about Zelda > Zard next round?
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#149 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 10:03:26 PM | message detail
What does this suggest 2010 Ratchet gets on Marston?
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#150 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 10:03:28 PM | message detail
I think that match was more always about Zard potentially being a fraud than whatever Zelda was going to do, but it doesn't hurt.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.