Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1114

#51 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/16/2013 5:01:21 PM | message detail
Can Caim ultimately usurp Serious Sam's remarkable record for crappiest character to finish first?
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#52 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/16/2013 5:01:37 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Oh my god I was going to vote Shepard but seeing Tharja's quote with her STARING AT AERIS I have to vote Tharja.


oh god I didn't realize this at first

amazing
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#53 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 5:04:04 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Oh my god I was going to vote Shepard but seeing Tharja's quote with her STARING AT AERITH I have to vote Tharja.


Amazing

Also, good job, Luster!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#54 | LOLContests | Posted 8/16/2013 5:05:59 PM | message detail
There's a very real chance that Caim could break like 80% unless the votals are just horrible. Nobody outside of the board is going to know who the other two even are, and neither have particularly appealing character design.
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#55 | Ringworm | Posted 8/16/2013 5:07:14 PM | message detail
So Rikku > ? Block > L-Block > Link > Cloud. I can live with that.

Someone mentioned about getting Chester above Link. Might be able to after the bonus poll, however best I can do so far:

Chester > Liquid Snake (in terms of getting into this bracket) > Bowser > Kirby > L-Block >Link
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#56 | im317 | Posted 8/16/2013 5:07:24 PM | message detail
why is there no forward and back button in the new match picks? yes im lazy
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#57 | foxhead84 | Posted 8/16/2013 5:59:32 PM | message detail | (edited)
What's up with Shepard's quote: "This is my favorite store on the Citatel". I don't remember it (haven't played ME1 though). Is this some king of meme or something?
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#58 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/16/2013 5:52:06 PM | message detail
Rikku gradually pulls away from the ? Block right from the beginning of the poll to build up a 900+ vote lead after nine hours. It's been a pretty horrible day for team joke, with the Cube beating Lenneth Valkyrie by less than two thousand votes and the ? Block bowing out without a fight. Lyndis holds a little over 20% of the vote, which I think is decent for non-Smash FE - might well put her above Chrom.

Round 1, Match 79

(3) John Marston
(16) Zelda
(25) Sackboy

Zelda wins. The questions are how well she does and who takes second. Sackboy avoided getting doubled by Leon in 2010, but I'd expect he's weaker now and Zelda should be a step above Leon's level so something in the region of 70/30 between them seems appropriate, probably a little over. I would've called for a Skyward Sword boost for her, but with Groose being so pathetic, I'm not sure it'll matter that her character was well received in it.

The battle for second is, yet again, a race between fodder. John Marston obviously did well in the nominations for a new character to be a 3-seed, but most of them have been pretty awful. Recent western characters have been weak in general, and several of those from the other big Rockstar games - the GTA series - have been shockingly poor. I therefore think Marston's floor is much lower than Sackboy's, given Sackboy's win and respectable fodder exit in 2010 and Sony mascot types doing relatively well this time around, so I'm picking against him. It wouldn't really surprise me if he wins because I have a hard time believing many people have thought much about Sackboy since LBP2 was being hyped.

Bracket: Zelda
Expert: Zelda > Sackboy > Marston
Oracle: Zelda - 59%; Sackboy - 24%; John Marston - 17%
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#59 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/16/2013 5:52:17 PM | message detail
Board 8, we must all agree NOT to vote for Chester.
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#60 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/16/2013 6:17:46 PM | message detail
I actually voted for Chester for his match. Voting for Caim this time because he's pretty much different from all other protagonists of his ilk. A murderous psychopath who's mute for actual story reasons? What's not to love?
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#61 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 6:17:46 PM | message detail
One thing to consider when predicting Chester/Caim/Dancin':

Zero (999) put up 80.71% on Chester. You figure Caim has to be weaker than Zero (999), so any prediction has to take into consideration that Caim isn't breaking 80% on Chester. I'd probably pick Caim to get around 70-75% on Chester.
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#62 | redrocket | Posted 8/16/2013 6:23:38 PM | message detail
Link looks FABULOUS but Raiden could easily overperform in a see of bright green.
Tharja looks so jealous of Aerith.


Read Tharja's quote again. You are now manually realizing that she is glancing at Aeirth while saying this.
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#63 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/16/2013 6:30:46 PM | message detail
why is this round still going

Luster pls use your powers to end the round
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F*** BT
#64 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 6:31:24 PM | message detail
I don't have the power to end the round.
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#65 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 7:02:15 PM | message detail
Match LXXIX: (3) John Marston vs. (16) Zelda vs. (25) Sackboy

Previous Contest

John Marston – N/A
N/A

Zelda – 2010
70.67% against Travis Touchdown
62.11% against Ezio Auditore da Firenze
59.72% against Jecht
36.15% against Samus Aran

Sackboy – 2010
54.58% against Kratos Aurion
35.19% against Leon Kennedy

Analysis

Zelda has always shown to be one of the strongest Nintendo character outside of the noble nine. While she should have no problem winning this match she does need to look as good as possible for her to have a chance against Charizard. Skyward Sword was released since we last saw her, but given how poorly Groose performed the boost is likely to be smaller than what she got for Twilight Princess.

While Marston has no chance for an upset I do think he will have a decent showing. Rockstar characters flopping is a bit concerning, but those were characters from older games while John is more recent. Still this contest has not been kind to these kinds of characters and there is a good chance he could flop into last place.

Sackboy has had LittleBigPlanet 2 since the last contest which could boost his strength. While he was able to show his true strength in 2010 it does not mean he has a lot of strength. Still with a healthy boost from his new game it does not give Marston a lot of room to maneuver without falling into third.

The more I think about it the more I feel Sackboy has a great chance for second. I am going to stick with Marston, but I will not be surprised if the upset occurred. Zelda has a good chance at breaking 50% in this match and will almost need to if she wants the board to favour her next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zelda > John Marston and Sackboy

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zelda – 50.47%, John Marston – 26.95%, Sackboy – 22.58%
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#66 | anondum | Posted 8/16/2013 7:03:45 PM | message detail
DK was a popular pick over vivi, even though he had already lost to him once

lightning may be an unknown factor, but DK is a known factor and that factor is getting casuals to lose a point. he's more likely to get third than first, falco has a pretty good shot at beating him going by what they both did on mario.
#67 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/16/2013 7:15:58 PM | message detail
Falco has no chance at beating him and you shouldn't take an SFF match from 2002 seriously.

2002 Donkey Kong was probably Donkey Kong at his worst regardless. Almost losing to Aya Brea!
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#68 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 7:42:18 PM | message detail
Given Zelda's ugly Skyward Sword pic, on top of Skyward Sword's reception more likely de-boosting her than boosting her, I'd be concerned for a Zelda underperformance here.

However - as usual - the other two characters are crap, so Zelda should crush this match anyway.

I think Marston has a good shot at 2nd, Red Dead is a game that would probably be more liked around here than the GTA games which garner a lot of hate. Red Dead is pretty well-respected. Marston should still be fodder, but I don't think he'll be horrible turbofodder.

But I think banking 2nd/3rd is the best play here though as these weak fodder A vs. weak fodder B matches have been hell to call correctly.
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#69 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/16/2013 7:47:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
Lightning... hasn't actually had a match since her game was actually out, has she?

That's so weird. Funny to see a rare case of a character getting 'less popular' after her game is released. Well, maybe.
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#70 | Korayashi | Posted 8/16/2013 7:48:27 PM | message detail
Caim must fall. This is the moment. Spring Breeze Dancin' can take a match..it must be so.
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#71 | Sorozone | Posted 8/16/2013 7:49:20 PM | message detail
Everyone actually loves Lightning and her game. She's gonna stomp.
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#72 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/16/2013 7:53:27 PM | message detail
I look forward to casting my vote for Spring Breeze Dancin' in the bonus poll.
#73 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/16/2013 8:31:27 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Lyi2RSVxqg

Charizard boost incoming.
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#74 | Sorozone | Posted 8/16/2013 8:40:53 PM | message detail
And Red, and Blue.
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#75 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 8:59:25 PM | message detail
#76 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:00:28 PM | message detail
Well excuse me princess


John Marston
12.5%
1 Votes

Zelda
87.5%
7 Votes

Sackboy
0%
0 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#77 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:00:35 PM | message detail
John Marston
18%
9 Votes

Zelda
64%
32 Votes
Your Pick

Sackboy
18%
9 Votes
#78 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:00:57 PM | message detail
John Marston
21.21%
14 Votes

Zelda
63.64%
42 Votes
Your Pick

Sackboy
15.15%
10 Votes
Total Votes: 66
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#79 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:01:37 PM | message detail
Sackboy more like Suckboy

Am I funny yet
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#80 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/16/2013 9:01:48 PM | message detail
Ban KP
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#81 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 9:02:13 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
I'm thinking Marston looks respectable here


Well at the very least he has 2nd locked up
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#82 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:03:00 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Sackboy more like Suckboy

Am I funny yet


Yes.
#83 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/16/2013 9:03:07 PM | message detail
Sackbuts is probably going to cost me another 3 Expert points, but I'm too elated about finally making the leaderboard to care.

Thanks AutoCorrect for that BTW.
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#84 | Dr_Football | Posted 8/16/2013 9:03:09 PM | message detail
woooo made it onto both leaderborads
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#85 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/16/2013 9:03:33 PM | message detail
Marston might have a lot of casual bracket votes, might wanna hold off til the next update
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F*** BT
#86 | Qwaar | Posted 8/16/2013 9:04:07 PM | message detail
Gah, I went from 3rd to 15th on the expert board.
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#87 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 9:04:35 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Marston might have a lot of casual bracket votes, might wanna hold off til the next update


If anything, he should be the type of character the board vote hates. I'd expect he'll jump a couple percentages.
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#88 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:05:29 PM | message detail
Sackboy probably has a weak board vote too

Zelda is going to crash
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#89 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:06:38 PM | message detail
Not much change, Marston looking safe for second
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 63/78 Today's Picks: Zelda and Lightning
#90 | Sorozone | Posted 8/16/2013 9:06:54 PM | message detail
#91 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:06:56 PM | message detail
Marston > Leon confirmed
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#92 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/16/2013 9:07:01 PM | message detail
#93 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 9:07:30 PM | message detail
Jeeeesus Sackboy. I thought he would be a flash-in-the-pan character, but he's looking like Kratos Aurion would absolutely murder him in a rematch.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#94 | Qwaar | Posted 8/16/2013 9:07:44 PM | message detail
I'm happy that my view of sackboy as useless fodder SEEMS to be true at the moment.

This will go some way to making up for the block.
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#95 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/16/2013 9:07:47 PM | message detail
LOL Sackboy

all the expert points
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F*** BT
#96 | xp1337 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:08:02 PM | message detail
Glad Marston is winning here. Was really starting to doubt this one but didn't want to leave my gut feeling on this.
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#97 | scifi1980 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:08:52 PM | message detail
I picked Zelda but didn't expect her to do quite this well. It's early yet, but holding over 60% in the first hour is usually a good sign.
#98 | Sorozone | Posted 8/16/2013 9:08:54 PM | message detail
Eh, Sackboy could potentially be a bit stronger than Marston in Europe(I'm not really basing this on anything, just guessing).

I think that's his only hope if he wants to make it close.
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#99 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 9:09:10 PM | message detail
Zelda is approaching 85% on Sackboy. That's not something I was expecting as I was expecting Sackboy to be stronger than Travis Touchdown, who pulled in 30% on Zelda. Sackboy did beat Kratos Aurion back in 2010, so he wasn't complete trash back then.
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#100 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 9:09:22 PM | message detail
By the power of the Triforce, Zelda...
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