Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1114

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 1:53:40 PM | message detail
FFX characters love getting fan art and action figure pics


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 1:55:25 PM | message detail
And arguably their two best performances have come with fan art and action figure pics. I see no issue!
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#3 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 1:55:51 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
And arguably their two best performances have come with fan art and action figure pics. I see no issue!


Heh...
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#4 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 1:55:55 PM | message detail
Action figure pic for Dante next round let's do this
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#5 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 1:56:25 PM | message detail
Fanart pic for Missingno let's do it.
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~War~
#6 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 2:00:35 PM | message detail
I still find it amusing that the only FFX character not to reach the second round is Tidus

Last time that happened was 2006, but Yuna and Rikku were in the female bracket.
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#7 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 2:01:15 PM | message detail
Marston or Sackboy... What a pain. Who's the favorite?
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#8 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 2:01:31 PM | message detail
Tidus has still never made the third round. Jecht did it the first time he was in the contest.
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#9 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/16/2013 2:03:00 PM | message detail | (edited)
...So if Rikku tripled Lenneth but can only double Lyndis, then Lyndis would have contended for first against WCC if she and Lenneth had switched places, RIGHT?
>_>
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#10 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/16/2013 2:07:17 PM | message detail
With how completely awful the Cube looked, I wouldn't be surprised.
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#11 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 2:12:54 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Tidus has still never made the third round. Jecht did it the first time he was in the contest.


When Tidus last won a match...

Saddam Hussein had yet to go on trial.

Sandra Day O'Connor was still a Supreme Court Justice.

Katrina was just some girl's name.

Rosa Parks was alive.
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~War~
#12 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2013 2:25:18 PM | message detail
I don't trust John Marston or Sackboy...RDR's bigger than any LBP-game, but Sackboy in 2010 beats probably any Generic McDude and Marston may be next in line for that category. It's not like any other three-seed this contest has done well, either.

The big question for me is if Sackboy's lost any strength and recognition since then; his games since 2010 have done poorly here and Playstation All-Stars doesn't look like it helped anyone else from its cast. I doubt he's still as strong, especially if GameFAQs is becoming more insular...but then, I don't think a newer character like Marston gets an advantage from that either.


Ugly match for second.....
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#13 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 2:31:33 PM | message detail | (edited)
So I have DK > Lightning....hmmm...

When I made that pick, my initial thought process was '**** FFXIII, DK 4EVA'.

Now, for DK to win that match, Lightning (by association with FFXIII) has to be hated to the point where a leeched DK can actually beat her. Dammit...that worries me. I'd like to think DKCR did something to help boost DK's popularity, especially given it was recently rereleased on the 3DS, but Falco just had to be there. A major source of comfort here is that lower-tier Smash characters seem to be faring poorly in this contest, so DK might not be as badly leeched as once thought. Still, it'll be hell going handicapped against a Final Fantasy lead, even if people by and large hated FFXIII.
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Drop it to the floor...
#14 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/16/2013 2:33:02 PM | message detail
I must say I voted Rikku because of the picture
This is pretty much the only time I did it
And yeah I know how much Black Turtle hates virgins that vote for females on this site but voting for a hot looking girl over a stupid block sounds fine to me! (Would not do it if she was against something I care about)
#15 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 2:45:43 PM | message detail | (edited)
HaRRicH posted...
I don't trust John Marston or Sackboy...RDR's bigger than any LBP-game, but Sackboy in 2010 beats probably any Generic McDude and Marston may be next in line for that category. It's not like any other three-seed this contest has done well, either.

The big question for me is if Sackboy's lost any strength and recognition since then; his games since 2010 have done poorly here and Playstation All-Stars doesn't look like it helped anyone else from its cast. I doubt he's still as strong, especially if GameFAQs is becoming more insular...but then, I don't think a newer character like Marston gets an advantage from that either.


Ugly match for second.....


You're telling me... Post-PS1 Sony mascots haven't done well (Jak only 55-45'd Chie Satonaka, a character from a game who's main character got blown the hell out by Shadow the Hedgehog; Ratchet didn't even look that good against Shulk, and let it sink in that the other characters from his game were horrible fodder; Nathan Drake struggled against Pac-Man; Kratos in particular failed to double Recette Lemongrass.), and Rockstar has also stunk it up.

Also, three seed curse revived?
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#16 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/16/2013 2:36:11 PM | message detail
If FF13 wasn't hated, FF13-2 would have had won last year's GotY through simple momentum and Lightning/Barthandelus wouldn't have gotten last place in a vote-in.

Besides Sora, has Square created a character since 2003 that could potentially win in Lightning's place against DK/Falco LFF'ing off each other?
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#17 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/16/2013 2:37:57 PM | message detail
Huh, I'm amazed this match is even close.

what ever go my rikku
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#18 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/16/2013 2:39:34 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Besides Sora, has Square created a character since 2003 that could potentially win in Lightning's place against DK/Falco LFF'ing off each other?


Roxas, maybe?
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#19 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/16/2013 2:46:14 PM | message detail
welp there goes a big chunk of my bracket, had ? Block winning like two matches
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#20 | pjbasis | Posted 8/16/2013 2:59:48 PM | message detail
Saying besides Sora makes me think Riku is eligible in his conditions, even though both were created in 2002.
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#21 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/16/2013 3:06:59 PM | message detail
? Block is being SSF'd and TJF'd at the same time. An injustice to this match.
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#22 | NachoSwordsman | Posted 8/16/2013 3:10:08 PM | message detail
? Block is more of a forced joke, which I find unfunny. Not suprising that its losing this bad
#23 | LOLContests | Posted 8/16/2013 3:10:33 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
If FF13 wasn't hated, FF13-2 would have had won last year's GotY through simple momentum and Lightning/Barthandelus wouldn't have gotten last place in a vote-in.

Besides Sora, has Square created a character since 2003 that could potentially win in Lightning's place against DK/Falco LFF'ing off each other?


Maybe Marche at his peak? Yeesh, that's bad.
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#24 | LiquidOshawott | Posted 8/16/2013 3:54:57 PM | message detail
I want to know the consensus for the following for Expert picking

Frog vs. Lugia
Gordon Freeman vs. Shadow
Vivi vs. SFF'd Ganondorf (by Mario)
Jill vs. Kratos
Cube vs. Rikku
#25 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/16/2013 3:57:42 PM | message detail
Frog
Gordon Freeman
....Vivi, probably
Jillian
Rikku, definitely
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#26 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/16/2013 4:11:23 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
72------1------------100.00
71------6------------83.33
70------13----------100.00
69------41----------97.56
68------78----------96.15
67------100--------96.00
66------117--------92.31
65------102--------90.20
64------122--------88.52
63------131--------69.47
62------167--------59.28
61------218--------65.14
60------288--------54.51
59------384--------56.77
58------514--------56.03
57------591--------52.28
56------772--------47.15
55------910--------44.18
54------979--------45.86
53------949--------45.94
52------1031------43.26
51------913--------47.32
50------827--------43.17
49------760--------48.29
48------679--------46.39
47------632--------47.63
46------529--------41.78
45------466--------45.71
44------440--------43.64
43------392--------42.60
42------323--------37.46
41------266--------40.60
40------224--------41.07
39------195--------36.41
38------163--------33.13
37------138--------33.33
36------138--------40.58
35------108--------46.30
34------81----------40.74
33------76----------43.42
32------77----------38.96
31------53----------45.28
30------38----------34.21
29------34----------41.18
28------25----------44.00
27------28----------35.71
26------27----------44.44
25------12----------33.33
24------11----------54.55
23------9------------77.78
22------5------------20.00
21------12----------16.67
20------4------------50.00
19------5------------40.00
18------1------------0.00
17------5------------40.00
16------3------------66.67
15------2------------100.00
14------2------------50.00
13------0------------0.00
12------1------------100.00
11------3------------66.67
10------1------------100.00
9--------1------------100.00
8--------15----------93.33
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------4------------0.00
4--------1------------0.00
3--------5------------0.00
2--------4------------0.00
1--------1------------0.00

An easy match for the top tiers but the casuals struggled with it a lot more. Weighted Companion Cube was probably still the favourite among them, though. Even though it was a fairly easy match for the top tiers, a few of them still got the match wrong.

No one fell off the Top 49.

1 person got it wrong and survived. RAMS did not have Weighted Companion Cube winning.
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#27 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 4:25:57 PM | message detail
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5224.jpg

OMG, Chester/Caim/Dancin'

Also, round 2 match pictures are up.

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5225.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5226.jpg
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#28 | ZFS | Posted 8/16/2013 4:27:43 PM | message detail
Link to dominate
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#29 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:27:59 PM | message detail
Caim is going to win a poll. This is going to happen.
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#30 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 4:31:00 PM | message detail
Link looks FABULOUS but Raiden could easily overperform in a see of bright green.
Tharja looks so jealous of Aerith.
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#31 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:31:07 PM | message detail
Bacon, I love you.
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#32 | anondum | Posted 8/16/2013 4:31:44 PM | message detail
DK sucks in these contests. even if lightning is weak she will still win, because DK is only good at choking.
#33 | anondum | Posted 8/16/2013 4:34:08 PM | message detail
seriously Dk lost to tidus

who would ever pick tidus > lightning
#34 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:39:30 PM | message detail
Tidus isn't actually that bad, he got over 46% on Sub-Zero. Granted, getting 60-40'd by Tidus is a bad sign, but more recently DK got 56-44'd by Vivi, which doesn't look nearly as weak.

And for the record, Lightning is still an unproven character. She might be as bad as Balthier.
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#35 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 4:40:14 PM | message detail
I just set up a prediction topic for the bonus match:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67001458

There hasn't been any confirmation whether the match will be counted towards the Oracle Challenge.
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#36 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 4:40:28 PM | message detail
oh god the bonus poll
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#37 | FFDragon | Posted 8/16/2013 4:42:02 PM | message detail
The idea that any of Chester/Caim/SBD are going to get double digit percents is already blowing my mind.
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#38 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/16/2013 4:42:12 PM | message detail
Also, spoilers, if Tidus had gotten Yuna or Rikku's spots in the bracket, he would've won with ease. He just gets screwjob'd consistently.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#39 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 4:46:35 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
The idea that any of Chester/Caim/SBD are going to get double digit percents is already blowing my mind.


Oh, gods...
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#40 | superange128 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:48:28 PM | message detail
oh hey Luster's efforts paid off

good job Luster for not getting us a boring poll
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#41 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 4:50:12 PM | message detail
anondum posted...
seriously Dk lost to tidus

who would ever pick tidus > lightning

I'm pretty sure Tidus would be the consensus pick over Lightning.

If Falco wasn't in this match, DK would be a pretty popular pick. Lightning shouldn't be that strong.

-LusterSoldier- posted...
I just set up a prediction topic for the bonus match:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67001458

There hasn't been any confirmation whether the match will be counted towards the Oracle Challenge.

Pretty much no chance any bonus poll will ever count for the Oracle. They never have before, nor is there any reason they should.

Cool poll though, I wonder if Chester's notoriety will boost him.
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#42 | RPGlord95 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:50:36 PM | message detail
So when Chester gets less than 10% and Dancin wins with like 60%

Joy
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#43 | Xuxon | Posted 8/16/2013 4:52:02 PM | message detail
From: FFDragon | Posted: 8/16/2013 7:42:02 PM | #037
The idea that any of Chester/Caim/SBD are going to get double digit percents is already blowing my mind.

what about the idea that Chester might not get double digit percents, even in this match
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#44 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 4:52:10 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
oh hey Luster's efforts paid off

good job Luster for not getting us a boring poll

Indeed.

I wonder if the nature of the poll will actually lead to high vote totals. Normally these three should be obviously junk at generating votes, but perhaps there will be some sort of ensemble power effect :)
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#45 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 4:53:18 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Pretty much no chance any bonus poll will ever count for the Oracle. They never have before, nor is there any reason they should.

Cool poll though, I wonder if Chester's notoriety will boost him.


The bonus match in the Rivalry Rumble was counted towards the Oracle. I imagine this bonus match will be counted towards the Oracle:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5265

However, that bonus match was set up by Bacon before the contest even started. That bonus match will end up being Sephiroth/Cloud/Samus or Sephiroth/Snake/Samus, depending on who advances to the final match in the Cloud/Snake match.
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#46 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:56:19 PM | message detail
Oh my god I was going to vote Shepard but seeing Tharja's quote with her STARING AT AERITH I have to vote Tharja.
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#47 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 4:58:09 PM | message detail
So are we going to try to make Chester even weaker?
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#48 | FFDragon | Posted 8/16/2013 4:58:41 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
what about the idea that Chester might not get double digit percents, even in this match


This is a thing that needs to happen.
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#49 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/16/2013 4:59:10 PM | message detail
So, it looks like we are finally going to find out what happens when the very weak force bumps into the easily movable object.
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#50 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/16/2013 5:00:04 PM | message detail
Seriously guys Tharja's going to get like 25% because of joke votes.

That's the best joke ever.
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