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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1113
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Karma Hunter posted... ...I'm as down on Zero's strength more than most but he would completely throttle the rat. Lloyd doesn't just have to be 'a little stronger', he has to beat down Kratos with 58% pre-SFF to even get Pikachu = Zero. Considering the past contest history, it's not that much of a stretch to say Lloyd > Kratos in terms of strength, if only by a little bit. Now Pikachu got roughly 70% on Lloyd in a night match. Zero got roughly 74% on Kratos in a day match. So if Lloyd > Kratos in strength by a little bit, Pikachu and Zero are roughly equals. Granted, I'm no stat wizard, but I don't think the numbers are that ridiculous like 58%. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Sigh.....if Lyndis was not in the match, the block could be winning... --- Drop it to the floor... |
kinsho3 posted... Sigh.....if Lyndis was not in the match, the block could be winning... Rikku would beat ? Block 60-40. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
kinsho3 posted... Karma Hunter posted......I'm as down on Zero's strength more than most but he would completely throttle the rat. Lloyd doesn't just have to be 'a little stronger', he has to beat down Kratos with 58% pre-SFF to even get Pikachu = Zero. They are. Increasing percentage is quite difficult at the high levels. Not only that, but if the match had gone 24 hours Pikachu would have ended at an even worse percentage - he fell constantly all match, even when the day vote hit, because he's a ridiculously frontloaded character. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I've
gotta say that new Square has completely rebounded in this second half
of R1. I know polls don't work this way, but it seems that Cloud's match
was the turning point. By going out there and actually doing as well as
we expected, he gave his boys a shot in the arm per se. - Aerith and Rinoa both manage to look bad in the same match - Barret looks horrible - Vincent looks bad - Sephiroth underperforms - Balthier looks laughable (he did legit underperform relative to our expectations) - Zack flops and takes many brackets with him - Cloud is the first new Square guy to look pretty good - Zidane easily cruises in a somewhat debated match - Sora slightly outdoes Oracle expectations and really lays into Scorpion - Neku almost gets the upset (come on, give him a little credit!) - Seifer... alright, no escaping this one - Auron underperforms, but Roxas in the match makes this excusable imo - Yuna does the job and easily dispatches Chief - Boobs McGee looks awesome - Vivi looks good after the cheating is dealt with - Squall looks just fine - Tidus put the fear of god in Missingno and many of our brackets - Rikku should win a match in which she was the pre-contest underdog It really is night and day since Cloud rallied the troops. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
shouldn't Lloyd have dropped some from Symphoneya 2, wait was that really way back in 08? --- "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
Yoblazer
I think I'm going to start subscribing to your outlook of the contest
characters being sentient beings with distinct tribal entities, if only
for the mental image of things like Link coming out next round and
rallying the Nintendo legions against the opposition --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
im317 posted... shouldn't Lloyd have dropped some from Symphoneya 2, wait was that really way back in 08? When you're as weak as Lloyd (or any Tales character, really), I doubt you can fall much farther... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
73%
on Prinny which extrapolates to being 64% against Ike. Anti voted or
not, not an impressive result by any means. Not sure why people keep
saying that Cloud looked spectacular. --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
It's fun to think about! Can you imagine Cloud looking at his first squadron of guys all laying eggs, the rotten cherry on top being best-friend-Zack ousted by that stupid rival clown. The other New Square guys peek at their silent leader through the corner of their eyes, too nervous to look up and confront the looming reality of a lost contest. Cloud takes a few steps and, before taking the stage against a small penguin and a Congressman, turns to his cadre of curvy women and fey men... "Let's mosey." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVBM3bX7xdw --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
JustForFun1988 posted... 73% on Prinny which extrapolates to being 64% against Ike. Anti voted or not, not an impressive result by any means. Not sure why people keep saying that Cloud looked spectacular. I think he means that he performed to expectations. We have a fairly big amount of evidence that Cloud is nonlinear at this point because of all his anti-voting, and he didn't underperform the range that we expected due to that. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... They are. Increasing percentage is quite difficult at the high levels. Not only that, but if the match had gone 24 hours Pikachu would have ended at an even worse percentage - he fell constantly all match, even when the day vote hit, because he's a ridiculously frontloaded character. Point taken, but I'm not talking about a 24-hour match here. I'm talking about a 12-hour match during the day, where Pikachu and other Pokemon are naturally stronger. I think it's not too ridiculous to say that Pikachu would have gotten around 71-72% on Lloyd, even if it's slightly conjecture. --- Drop it to the floor... |
I think the board was low on FFVII in general and just gave Cloud a low percentage --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 62/76 Today's Picks: WCC and ? Block |
Pokemon X/Y should have come out a couple months sooner. --- Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner |
charmander why don't you mosey on outta here. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
Denzokuken posted... Rikku would beat ? Block 60-40. Rikku could possibly be winning, but not by '60-40'. Besides, it's much more likely that Lyndis, being a Nintendo character, is leeching votes off another Nintendo entity in ? Block. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Karma Hunter posted... JustForFun1988 posted...73% on Prinny which extrapolates to being 64% against Ike. Anti voted or not, not an impressive result by any means. Not sure why people keep saying that Cloud looked spectacular. Cloud performed to expectations because Senator Armstrong absolutely stunk up the joint. 66% would have been good had Armstrong stayed close to Prinny's percentage but nope, he got absolutely demolished by Prinny. Cloud looked good at the expense of Armstrong, not because of his inherent strength, it's not hard to understand that. --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
Auron/Zero was a night match. Zero might have gotten to 45% or something in 24 hours. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
300 vote barrier --- Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner |
kinsho3 posted... Karma Hunter posted...They are. Increasing percentage is quite difficult at the high levels. Not only that, but if the match had gone 24 hours Pikachu would have ended at an even worse percentage - he fell constantly all match, even when the day vote hit, because he's a ridiculously frontloaded character. It's not conclusive. Pikachu not being able to benefit from that ludicrously frontloaded Power Hour (the PH is very diminished in day matches) also cuts him, which brings his overall percentage down even if it means he doesn't drop like a rock. Even then, it would mean Lloyd beats Kratos by a lot. Lloyd being equal to Kratos is a huge amount for me to swallow as it is - it really is a Tidus/Auron relationship they have. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
JustForFun1988 posted... Karma Hunter posted...JustForFun1988 posted...73% on Prinny which extrapolates to being 64% against Ike. Anti voted or not, not an impressive result by any means. Not sure why people keep saying that Cloud looked spectacular. Uh, remember that anti-votes are in essence just 'not-Cloud' votes. The fact that Prinny ended up soaking the lion's share of the anti-votes rather than them being more equally divided among him and Armstrong doesn't discount the non-linearity. In a lot of ways when you're predicting Cloud's matches these days his overall percentage is the more important thing, as it's often just down to essentially 'Cloud' and 'not-Cloud'. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
AxemRedRanger posted... Auron/Zero was a night match. Zero might have gotten to 45% or something in 24 hours. No, he would have done much worse. Mega Man is a first three hour entity followed by freefalling the rest of the match, and the trends bear that out if you check the Auron/Zero updater. Factor in Kingdom Hearts ASV for Auron, and Zero would have been rocked like no one's business over 24 hours. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
kinsho3 posted... Denzokuken posted...Rikku would beat ? Block 60-40. Hahahaha no. ? block is even less of a proper Nintendo entity than Missingno. It's not really a joke either, because it's not funny. It's just "I'm voting for a stupid thing I recognize for the hell of it." --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Karma Hunter posted... It's not conclusive. Pikachu not being able to benefit from that ludicrously frontloaded Power Hour (the PH is very diminished in day matches) also cuts him, which brings his overall percentage down even if it means he doesn't drop like a rock. All right, I did some research in some of Pikachu's 2010 matches, as they are probably the most relevant matches here with respect to 2013. In Pikachu vs. Banjo (night match), Pikachu ended the power hour with 75.05%. Then he ended the match with 75.09%. Not much fluctuation there for such a power-hour loaded character. In PIkachu vs. Shepard (day match) Pikachu ended the power hour with 60.53%. He ended the match with 61.01%. Decent gain there, but I'd imagine Shepard also being a day character took some of the sting out of Pikachu's day vote. So there you go, it seems like Pikachu has a stronger day vote compared to his night vote. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Karma Hunter posted... AxemRedRanger posted...Auron/Zero was a night match. Zero might have gotten to 45% or something in 24 hours. Right, but I thought FFX had a great night vote and pretty bad day vote? Also, does Auron actually have a KH ASV just because he boosted from KHII? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
AxemRedRanger posted... ? block is even less of a proper Nintendo entity than Missingno. How the hell does this make sense? For pete's sake, ? Block is associated with Nintendo's flagship series. It's just "I'm voting for a stupid thing I recognize for the hell of it." You forget nostalgia. --- Drop it to the floor... |
AxemRedRanger posted... Karma Hunter posted...AxemRedRanger posted...Auron/Zero was a night match. Zero might have gotten to 45% or something in 24 hours. It's not bad, it's just average - and obviously he doesn't have a KH-style ASV, but it helps his ASV nevertheless compared to what it would be without it. Compared to Zero's it's preferable, as Zero just continues to freefall in a traditional 24 hour match much like Mega Man usually does until the SNV. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
kinsho3 posted... Karma Hunter posted...It's not conclusive. Pikachu not being able to benefit from that ludicrously frontloaded Power Hour (the PH is very diminished in day matches) also cuts him, which brings his overall percentage down even if it means he doesn't drop like a rock. He has a stronger day vote, but as you can see it's a very mild difference that can easily be accounted for by his opponents. Banjo and Shepard are complete wild cards, too. It's not just about fluctuation, it's about absolute percentage - Pikachu was able to rise more against Shepard because the day PH is diluted. Banjo is just kind of worthless fodder in an SFF match, I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
So does Rikku have this pretty much won? Block is much closer than I thought it'd be, so I'm hoping for a comeback now. Need dem points. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
kinsho3 posted... AxemRedRanger posted...? block is even less of a proper Nintendo entity than Missingno. Nobody cares about ? block or has notable nostalgia for it. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Is
anyone expecting Sackboy to have any strength at all left? Seems like a
flash in the pan character to me. Not sure whether that's enough to
beat I'm A Cowboy. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Jokes are all underperforming this year. I guess there were just too many of them to make any good bandwagons. --- Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery. |
AxemRedRanger posted... Nobody cares about ? block or has notable nostalgia for it. If nobody cared about ? block, Rikku's doing reeeeeeaaaally ****ty right now. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Is there anywhere we could rally for ? Block that wouldn't backfire? --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
Rikku's
a C grade Square character who's comfortably winning in a match where
she was a heavy underdog against a joke character in a format rigged to
favor jokes. I think it's fair to say people don't really care about ?. It's as close as it is on default votes. Rikku v ? Block 1v1 would get pretty ugly. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
KamikazePotato posted... Is anyone expecting Sackboy to have any strength at all left? Seems like a flash in the pan character to me. Not sure whether that's enough to beat I'm A Cowboy. Yeah I think Sackboy onyl did well enough to beat Kratos Aurion since LBP was still kinda big back then but I don't hear people talk about it of course he's in Playstation All-Stars but even less peopel talk about that game so Red Dead redemption does seem like it would be more liked than Grand Theft auto here --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
kinsho3 posted... AxemRedRanger posted...I don't like Rikku much (still want her to beat the block, mind, but voted Lyndis), so I am okay with this. Would definitely think Lyndis is sapping her appeal some. Stand-out Factor favored the block if nothing else.Nobody cares about ? block or has notable nostalgia for it. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
KamikazePotato posted... Is anyone expecting Sackboy to have any strength at all left? Seems like a flash in the pan character to me. Not sure whether that's enough to beat I'm A Cowboy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46rIWEgmmQk --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Zero should 55-45 Rikku or so. Rikku should be competitive but I can't see her winning. kinsho3 posted... Sigh.....if Lyndis was not in the match, the block could be winning... If Lyndis is hurting anybody, it's Rikku. FE and SMB should have no overlap. Lyndis is likely pretty neutral though. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Also, not to shoot my own upset special in the face, but on the note of Vincent Valentine... http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Falco_Lombardi_vs_GLaDOS_vs_Vincent_Valentine_vs_Wander_2008 ...has KOS-MOS been brought up in the context of this match yet? Because I think she probably should be. :/ --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
It
hasn't, if the same thing happened with KOS-MOS it'll place Vincent as
still weaker than his usual self, but not embarrassingly weaker. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 62/76 Today's Picks: WCC and ? Block |
The context will be DK > Vincent when DK doubles Falco! --- ~War~ |
Yo,
you said Seph's underperformed but he really didn't. Little Mac over
performed, relative to Midna Seph did almost exactly as expected. Cloud looked much worse than Seph. That was not a mosey-worthy performance! Aeris and Rinoa didn't both look bad either, Aeris did fine and Rinoa almost beat Hero despite one of the worst possible matchups for her. Vincent looked bad, Barrett was terrible and Seifer...yeah. Zack also flopped, though its unclear how much of that was Kefka beasting or taking advantage of a big Zack drop. The FFX crew has looked fine, Vivi and Zidane were fine as well. Among the FF characters who were actually expected to do something, Vincent and Zack are the only real flops. And I still think Vincent's performance will turn out to be deceptive. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... Zero should 55-45 Rikku or so. Rikku should be competitive but I can't see her winning. I'm not sure... part of me is saying this might be because Lyndis is just that weak. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
I
feel like Vincent's been slowly dropping but it's too hard to tell
since he hasn't been in a match with actual competition or no SFF for a
while --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
Way late to this, but Lenneth actually took the lead at one point? Well, at least despite being wrong I can take some comfort in having been right that Lenneth would be fairly competitive there. And it's great to see Rikku winning here, although that's not too surprising. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Vincent's obviously dropping, he went from beating Crono one year to not beating him the next ! --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
To
be fair to Barret, there is the possibility that Reimu had stuffed
votes that were never removed. Vivi was looking a lot worse when Marisa
was being stuffed full. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Yo,
you said Seph's underperformed but he really didn't. Little Mac over
performed, relative to Midna Seph did almost exactly as expected. No he didn't, unless you think the Sora that easily lost to Bowser breaks 41% on Sephiroth. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 62/76 Today's Picks: WCC and ? Block |
I
think Cloud's performance on Prinny should also be evaluated in the
context of Ridley's extremely obvious overperformance on him now. Using
Ike/Prinny, Ike/Zidane, and Zidane/Ridley, Cloud's expected to get 69%
on Ridley this year when he got 71% on him last contest. Assuming equal
overperformances, that's a slight drop for Cloud from last contest
(which should probably be expected), down to around Samus level. But
it's nothing catastrophic. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
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