Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1113

#351 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 9:41:42 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Votes should be dropping off at this point, even accounting for variance. The rally is a better indicator of why she just got cut considering the countless correlations we have for them.


In day matches, votes drop off at a much slower pace than night matches. This can be seen in the poll graphs for the day matches.
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#352 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:42:28 AM | message detail
I want to see someone pull out the most ridiculous stat comparisons ever....
to get Chester above Link


Using direct match-ups...

Guybrush > Max Payne > Gordon Freeman > Peach > CATS > Nathan Drake > Pac-Man > Ness > Zidane > Shadow > Wario > Captain Falcon > Riku > Hayabusa > Jill > Kirby > Sonic > Crono > Mega Man > Solid Snake > Sephiroth > Mario > Cloud > Link

Guybrush gets 96.83% on Link, which is below Tanner, but not Chester, but when you...

Link > Yoshi > Guybrush

Link gets 99.45% on Link
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#353 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 9:43:43 AM | message detail
I'm not denying that, but we still see a drop off. I'm not denying that Rikku dropped off, either, but ? Block probably doesn't maintain enough to take advantage of it on that cut without the rally getting started on that update.

It's not apparent how robust it is, anyway.
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#354 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 9:51:51 AM | message detail
Also geez Lyndis talk about your joke trends ;-;
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#355 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 9:52:49 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Fox seems to be around Sub-Zero/Jill in terms of strength, half decent, but nothing special.


For some reason I'm tempted to disagree on Sub-Zero and Jill in so far as being "nothing special in terms of contest strength", but I think it's more that those two characters are way stronger than I'd expect them to be.

In hindsight, you're right though. All three characters were doubled by Samus or Snake in 2010. Samus and Snake are virtually equal.

Speaking of which, put things this way. Red had a close win over Ocelot in 2010, and Jill had a close win over the same character in 2008. Jill got doubled by Samus. Fox got doubled by Snake. Samus and Snake are near-equals. This puts Red and Fox at around the same level. In Rivalry Rumble, Red was the character who seemed to gain the most from having his rival on his team, and since the general rule of thumb was two decent characters > a strong character and a weak character, it could be inferred that Blue had a good chance of being about equal to Red. While this could all be fallacious thinking, this is the best way I can think of to have seen the Blue > Fox upset ahead of time (which I didn't).
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#356 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/16/2013 9:53:32 AM | message detail
Seeing Lyn lose like this to ?-Block is really bad for my health.

I'm out.
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#357 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/16/2013 9:56:07 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also geez Lyndis talk about your joke trends ;-;


At this rate, I'm wondering if (or maybe I should say "when") she'll drop to the point where *both* Rikku and ? Block will double her.
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#358 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 9:56:11 AM | message detail
Blue > Fox was the guru favorite, man

Though Blue looking like he could beat Fox straight up was not, admittedly (though there are some of us who still don't believe that's the case).
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#359 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 9:58:16 AM | message detail
Snake vs. Cloud vs. Gary Oak is gonna be the best match ever.
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#360 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 9:59:03 AM | message detail
I mean uh uh uh

HORSEFAQS DO YOU BELIEVE? Nay
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#361 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 9:59:26 AM | message detail
On the topic of this match, for once Rikku isn't shafted! Horray!

Not sure if she can really give Zero a good fight though. Zero got 47% on Auron last time IIRC. I think it's asking a bit much for Rikku to be that strong.

Doing some research, apparently it was only 43%. So much for that, he's probably within striking distance of Zero. Now just watch the upset take place. Of course, Zero has gotten Marvel vs. Capcom 3 since last contest, but you never know.
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#362 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:00:09 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Snake vs. Cloud vs. Gary Oak is gonna be the best match ever.


Giving up on Pikachu > Crono, eh
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#363 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/16/2013 10:01:46 AM | message detail
Weighted Companion Cube-Lenneth had a smaller "max lead" than the last one on the "closest wire-to-wire matches--non-1v1" list entering the match, but fails to make the top 50 even for a moment because with WCC-Claptrap in the way, it falls to #51.
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#364 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 10:01:48 AM | message detail
2 bad updates in a row for ? Block. I assume it will return to a more normal vote intake soon.
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#365 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:02:04 AM | message detail
Oh man, Power Hour ending... and ? is getting creamed.

So much for that I guess.
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#366 | Qwaar | Posted 8/16/2013 10:02:19 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
On the topic of this match, for once Rikku isn't shafted! Horray!

Not sure if she can really give Zero a good fight though. Zero got 47% on Auron last time IIRC. I think it's asking a bit much for Rikku to be that strong.

Doing some research, apparently it was only 43%. So much for that, he's probably within striking distance of Zero. Now just watch the upset take place. Of course, Zero has gotten Marvel vs. Capcom 3 since last contest, but you never know.


This match isn't even over yet.
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#367 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:03:37 AM | message detail
Dammit, ? Block. You failed me.

Well, JokeFAQs is essentially done. Now on to DK FAQS!
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Drop it to the floor...
#368 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 10:03:39 AM | message detail
I'm kinda disappointed I didn't see an MvC3 boost coming.

If only we could get Wolverine into one of these...!
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#369 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 10:04:02 AM | message detail
I was confident that Lyndis would be more of a detriment to Rikku. Now that Block is displaying very traditional Nintendo trends, I've probably been proven wrong.
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#370 | superange128 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:05:13 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I was confident that Lyndis would be more of a detriment to Rikku. Now that Block is displaying very traditional Nintendo trends, I've probably been proven wrong.


maybe if Lyn had more TJF factor she would

otherwise I expected her to "hurt" ? Block more which is why I had Rikku since the beginning
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#371 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 10:05:29 AM | message detail
Why, I'd go so far as to say the MvC crew so far has looked marvelous!
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#372 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:06:08 AM | message detail
If Rikku can get past this match she's got a shot. Not as sexy as I liked it earlier since Zero went out and showed no weakness, but that blowout should neither have been unexpected.

Of course, Zero could be actually stronger (MvC3 boost, across the board MM boost from SSB4, etc.) but I'll feel much more comfortable calling for something like that if he outperforms expectations against her.
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#373 | abdou | Posted 8/16/2013 10:07:32 AM | message detail
?Block is dying right now
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#374 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:08:07 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Why, I'd go so far as to say the MvC crew so far has looked marvelous!


I can theoretically get behind this. Is there any one of them that hasn't exceeded expectations? I'm trying to think... maybe Wesker but hey Leon that's not even a cool setup
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#375 | superange128 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:08:44 AM | message detail
It would be cool to see Rikku beat Zero

very in the realm of possibility I'd say. Zero got 43 on Auron, and I think Rikku could do that before SFF
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#376 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:10:31 AM | message detail
Oh, Ryu and Chun Li didn't look good. They're the most fighter-y out of any of the characters in that game though so they probably had a limited way to rise from the fighting game exposure.
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#377 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:14:04 AM | message detail
Rikku got 42.47% on Kirby while Vivi (about equal to Zero) got 42.37%

Of course Rikku got Kirby at night while Vivi got him at day.
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#378 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 10:14:04 AM | message detail
If you think Kirby beats Auron in a night match (fairly easily) then Rikku/Zero is debatable 1v1 in 2010.

Karma Hunter posted...
Oh, Ryu and Chun Li didn't look good. They're the most fighter-y out of any of the characters in that game though so they probably had a limited way to rise from the fighting game exposure.


Yeah I meant characters who actually had a reason to possibly boost. Ryu/Chun don't benefit much from MvC3 for the same reason Brawl doesn't help Mario or Link, if you get this game, odds are very likely you already know and have an opinion on that character.
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#379 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/16/2013 10:14:29 AM | message detail
Frank West looked pretty abysmal!
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#380 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 10:15:38 AM | message detail
Yeah, that's because he was fighting game SFFed by Sub-Zero!
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#381 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:15:39 AM | message detail
NOCAFW (No One Cares About Frank West)
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#382 | Advokaiser | Posted 8/16/2013 10:16:37 AM | message detail
Why isn't ? Block stomping on this match? And why on earth did L-Block performed so good in its match? This doesn't make any sense.
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#383 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 10:16:51 AM | message detail
What's a "waifu fight"?
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#384 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:18:54 AM | message detail | (edited)
Holy crap. I think ?-Block got lucky it got a day match. Might have been embarrassed overnight.
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#385 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:18:24 AM | message detail
Ryu/Pikachu comparisons making me feel better about mousey's chances. Ryu got 56% on Yuri L/Face McShooty while Pika got 53% on Lloyd Irving/Big Daddy. Big Daddy went even with Lloyd and I'd imagine they'd both be a good bit stronger than the likes of Face (probably comparable to Lloyd himself, really). Being ahead of Ryu puts you in solid near-elite turf, which should be enough to give Crono w/ Magus a run.

Which makes Zero look like a god. Hmm.
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#386 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:19:06 AM | message detail
Why isn't ? Block stomping on this match? And why on earth did L-Block performed so good in its match? This doesn't make any sense.

It had no competition, it'll likely get crushed next round too
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#387 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 10:19:54 AM | message detail
I've always subscribed to the belief that roughly, Tidus = Yuna = Rikku, and no way do I see Zero losing to any of those guys. I'm not sure what the hell happened in 2010 against Auron but I'd take him to do notably better this year.
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#388 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:20:24 AM | message detail
I just can't see Zero dropping that match to Rikku, especially in a day match.
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#389 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:22:12 AM | message detail
Zero, the Evo2013 Champ. Maybe he would have been an actual threat if he had been in Vincent's spot? Sonic/Zero/Bowser, I mean. Or is he crushed by some platformer hierarchy or whatever.
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#390 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:23:14 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Ryu/Pikachu comparisons making me feel better about mousey's chances. Ryu got 56% on Yuri L/Face McShooty while Pika got 53% on Lloyd Irving/Big Daddy. Big Daddy went even with Lloyd and I'd imagine they'd both be a good bit stronger than the likes of Face (probably comparable to Lloyd himself, really). Being ahead of Ryu puts you in solid near-elite turf, which should be enough to give Crono w/ Magus a run.

Which makes Zero look like a god. Hmm.


Ryu looked just, uh, bad, as we alluded to just a bit earlier. That wasn't a near-elite performance, nor was Pikachu's.

creativename posted...
What's a "waifu fight"?


it's when my precious Tharja shows her love to me in a way inferior Lyndis could never compare to
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#391 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:23:46 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Zero, the Evo2013 Champ. Maybe he would have been an actual threat if he had been in Vincent's spot? Sonic/Zero/Bowser, I mean. Or is he crushed by some platformer hierarchy or whatever.


didn't you get the memo, it's Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser
#392 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:24:43 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Zero, the Evo2013 Champ. Maybe he would have been an actual threat if he had been in Vincent's spot? Sonic/Zero/Bowser, I mean. Or is he crushed by some platformer hierarchy or whatever.


didn't you get the memo, it's Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser


Of course, but just because Vincent flubbed it. Would you really take Mewtwo > Zero after what we have seen?
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#393 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 10:24:47 AM | message detail
I had no idea why anyone liked Tharja when I first recruited her in Awakening.

Then I got one of her support conversations wherein she wanted to do terrible things to me.

This was in one of her conversations with someone else entirely.

Now I'm no longer confused, just disappointed.
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#394 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:24:56 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Ryu/Pikachu comparisons making me feel better about mousey's chances. Ryu got 56% on Yuri L/Face McShooty while Pika got 53% on Lloyd Irving/Big Daddy. Big Daddy went even with Lloyd and I'd imagine they'd both be a good bit stronger than the likes of Face (probably comparable to Lloyd himself, really). Being ahead of Ryu puts you in solid near-elite turf, which should be enough to give Crono w/ Magus a run.

Which makes Zero look like a god. Hmm.


I'm of the belief that Pikachu = Zero. Of course, that would imply that Lloyd Irving is a little stronger than Kratos Aurion.

Still, even if Pikachu equaled Zero in tems of strength, that still makes him the favorite to take on Crono, who'll be hindered by Magus.
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#395 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 10:25:21 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Zero, the Evo2013 Champ. Maybe he would have been an actual threat if he had been in Vincent's spot? Sonic/Zero/Bowser, I mean. Or is he crushed by some platformer hierarchy or whatever.


didn't you get the memo, it's Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser


Of course, but just because Vincent flubbed it. Would you really take Mewtwo > Zero after what we have seen?


Already happened!
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#396 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/16/2013 10:25:24 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Which makes Zero look like a god. Hmm.


Makes sense considering the massive Mega Man boost and all!
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#397 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:25:46 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I've always subscribed to the belief that roughly, Tidus = Yuna = Rikku, and no way do I see Zero losing to any of those guys. I'm not sure what the hell happened in 2010 against Auron but I'd take him to do notably better this year.


He almost lost to Vivi in the contest before that, and Tidus is quite close to him historically (though always a half-step below). Zero putting up that number on Auron was actually a marked improvement for him, though it still didn't put him much ahead of SFFed Aeris.

Zero hasn't shined against good competition in a long time, so it'll be nice to see if he can really bring it to Rikku.
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#398 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:25:50 AM | message detail
lol
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#399 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 10:27:42 AM | message detail
Zero hasn't looked good since 2003
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#400 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 10:28:42 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Kotetsu534 posted...
Ryu/Pikachu comparisons making me feel better about mousey's chances. Ryu got 56% on Yuri L/Face McShooty while Pika got 53% on Lloyd Irving/Big Daddy. Big Daddy went even with Lloyd and I'd imagine they'd both be a good bit stronger than the likes of Face (probably comparable to Lloyd himself, really). Being ahead of Ryu puts you in solid near-elite turf, which should be enough to give Crono w/ Magus a run.

Which makes Zero look like a god. Hmm.


I'm of the belief that Pikachu = Zero. Of course, that would imply that Lloyd Irving is a little stronger than Kratos Aurion.

Still, even if Pikachu equaled Zero in tems of strength, that still makes him the favorite to take on Crono, who'll be hindered by Magus.


...I'm as down on Zero's strength more than most but he would completely throttle the rat. Lloyd doesn't just have to be 'a little stronger', he has to beat down Kratos with 58% pre-SFF to even get Pikachu = Zero.
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