Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1113

#451 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 11:52:33 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Yo, you said Seph's underperformed but he really didn't. Little Mac over performed, relative to Midna Seph did almost exactly as expected.

No he didn't, unless you think the Sora that easily lost to Bowser breaks 41% on Sephiroth.


That's close to cn's 2010 stats, which I don't think adjust Sora quite enough for a 24 hour match as is. Sephiroth being a touch weaker would make up the rest of the difference.
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#452 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/16/2013 11:52:51 AM | message detail
XFD
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#453 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 11:54:23 AM | message detail
That's close to cn's 2010 stats, which I don't think adjust Sora quite enough for a 24 hour match as is. Sephiroth being a touch weaker would make up the rest of the difference.

The whole heart division is overrated
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#454 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/16/2013 11:55:01 AM | message detail
cloud down to samus level sounds catastrophic to me
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#455 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/16/2013 11:55:22 AM | message detail
Cloud down to Samus' level would be catastrophic for those FFVII fans though, but yeah, i agree that Cloud is definitely weaker than his 2010 iteration.
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#456 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 11:56:07 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
That's close to cn's 2010 stats, which I don't think adjust Sora quite enough for a 24 hour match as is. Sephiroth being a touch weaker would make up the rest of the difference.

The whole heart division is overrated


Not the whole of it, not necessarily. Bowser had to go up against Charizard on the day of HG/SS, he faced him at what was likely a huge level of boost power. The lower half is overrated certainly, but Bowser and Sora can still prove themselves.
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#457 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/16/2013 11:56:28 AM | message detail
Given that Samus = Ryu via Rivalry Rumble and Ryu is clearly so weak now, Cloud = Samus is a huge disaster!

Why, Cloud might lose to Vincent now...~!
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#458 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 11:57:38 AM | message detail
I know you mentioned Rivalry Rumble as a joke but there are some lines we just shouldn't cross
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#459 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 11:59:36 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
kinsho3 posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Nobody cares about ? block or has notable nostalgia for it.


If nobody cared about ? block, Rikku's doing reeeeeeaaaally ****ty right now.
I don't like Rikku much (still want her to beat the block, mind, but voted Lyndis), so I am okay with this. Would definitely think Lyndis is sapping her appeal some. Stand-out Factor favored the block if nothing else.


So it seems the question here is legit character SFF vs. Nintendo SFF. I dont know, man. I'll go with Nintendo SFF because we have more evidence of that. Not to mention for a joke character, ? Block doesnt have very jokey trends - there was no killer board vote like we saw with Magikarp.
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#460 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/16/2013 12:00:01 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Is anyone expecting Sackboy to have any strength at all left? Seems like a flash in the pan character to me. Not sure whether that's enough to beat I'm A Cowboy.


lol wow I thought this was Sandbag. I had him losing anyway, but it was sort of debatable at first.
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#461 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:01:21 PM | message detail
Not the whole of it, not necessarily. Bowser had to go up against Charizard on the day of HG/SS, he faced him at what was likely a huge level of boost power. The lower half is overrated certainly, but Bowser and Sora can still prove themselves.

The bottom half is quite overrated, but looking where the top half is placed in relation to other characters doesn't seem right either.
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#462 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 12:03:56 PM | message detail
Samus might be weaker too, for all we know, we'll just have to see. As hard as it is to believe now, she was riding high on OTHER M HYPE, which released just a few months after the 2010 contest.

Now you've got people worrying that the entire series is dead because of how much of a ridiculously spectacular flop it was. Nothing so much to threaten her against the lower tier of the Noble Nine, but perhaps a difference maker in a rematch with Cloud.
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#463 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 12:12:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
charmander6000 posted...
Not the whole of it, not necessarily. Bowser had to go up against Charizard on the day of HG/SS, he faced him at what was likely a huge level of boost power. The lower half is overrated certainly, but Bowser and Sora can still prove themselves.

The bottom half is quite overrated, but looking where the top half is placed in relation to other characters doesn't seem right either.


To an extent - Midna looks relatively in line which means you have to either say there's a fairly severe Seph drop or that she's a credit to the division so far.

I'd like to wait and see on it. Bottom half, sure; top half, I could see them surprising.

Edit: For the other top-halvers, Bowser/Sora looked solid enough so far. Frog looked pretty good. Kefka looked great! Neku probably wins his match without rallying but who knows what Catherine is worth. Laharl uh that depends on how Dante does next round I think, got to see.
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#464 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/16/2013 12:14:22 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
kinsho3 posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Nobody cares about ? block or has notable nostalgia for it.


If nobody cared about ? block, Rikku's doing reeeeeeaaaally ****ty right now.
I don't like Rikku much (still want her to beat the block, mind, but voted Lyndis), so I am okay with this. Would definitely think Lyndis is sapping her appeal some. Stand-out Factor favored the block if nothing else.


So it seems the question here is legit character SFF vs. Nintendo SFF. I dont know, man. I'll go with Nintendo SFF because we have more evidence of that. Not to mention for a joke character, ? Block doesnt have very jokey trends - there was no killer board vote like we saw with Magikarp.
It's not just legit character LFF but also that both of ? block's opponents are females from RPGs. And I doubt Fire Emblem and Mario have much overlap for Nintendo games. Proof would be Mario barely being able to SFF Ike, but at least both of them were playable in Brawl. And I certainly wouldn't accept ? block as being a typical Mario character!

And if you think inanimate objects wouldn't do worse 1-on-1, I'm not sure what to tell you!

And I'm repeating myself, but ? block isn't a joke character. It's not funny and there's no joke to it like there was to most of the others. It's only even in the contest because of Luster and a 2008 bonus poll. The board and early votes being apathetic to it make perfect sense to me.
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#465 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:16:06 PM | message detail | (edited)
Let's see...

Sora - Unless Scorpion > Sub-Zero, he underperformed
Midna - Did as expected according to the stats, maybe even better if you take into account LFF (doubt it)
Laharl - Did worse on Dante than Sora (expected to be about the same)
Neku - No helpful information
Arthas - Not in bracket
Kefka - Won his match when it was expected for him to lose
Bowser - SFF Meta Knight more than Luigi, can't tell anything from there
Frog - No reliable information (or underperformed greatly)

Sora and Laharl underperformed to expectations, Midna performed to what the stats say should Sephiroth not be weaker, Kefka overperformed if you think he's reliable.
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#466 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:15:03 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Given that Samus = Ryu via Rivalry Rumble and Ryu is clearly so weak now, Cloud = Samus is a huge disaster!

Why, Cloud might lose to Vincent now...~!


surely you meant Red>Cloud, we even had a direct result last time...!
#467 | pjbasis | Posted 8/16/2013 12:15:06 PM | message detail
Eh I'm taking Sackboy out of fanboyism
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#468 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 12:17:52 PM | message detail
Even if Heart's top half is overrated a touch, it's nothing like the bombs the bottom half of Heart has rolled out. Three years of variance could account for this stuff as much as overrating, in either direction. At any rate it doesn't say anything conclusive about Sephiroth I think is the main point. You're not going to see an overperformance out of the big FF7 boys until they're up against sturdy competition, like Ryu in 2010.
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#469 | ecksgem | Posted 8/16/2013 12:34:16 PM | message detail
Rikku's been killing the poll for the last hour and a half. Good performance for her.
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#470 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 12:43:00 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
To be fair to Barret, there is the possibility that Reimu had stuffed votes that were never removed. Vivi was looking a lot worse when Marisa was being stuffed full.

Hmm, yes this is a good point. I've mentioned how unnatural Reimu's trends were. She almost certainly got stuffed. Barret still looked bad compared to Layton, though Layton had some reasons to boost.

But I don't expect much from Barrett anyway. I don't know how he got in instead of Red XIII. DogFAQs vs RacistFAQs and all.

charmander6000 posted...
Yo, you said Seph's underperformed but he really didn't. Little Mac over performed, relative to Midna Seph did almost exactly as expected.

No he didn't, unless you think the Sora that easily lost to Bowser breaks 41% on Sephiroth.

According to my adjusted stats, Seph should have gotten 71%. By Leon's, 72.5%. He got 70%. I don't see an issue here.
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#471 | TAFKAHurricane | Posted 8/16/2013 12:45:59 PM | message detail
I just don't think ? Block is funny enough.
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#472 | foxhead84 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:50:11 PM | message detail
wait a minute.... FFVII is STILL considered NEW Square???
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#473 | xp1337 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:51:40 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
wait a minute.... FFVII is STILL considered NEW Square???

time to add a new division. middle square.
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#474 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:52:22 PM | message detail
We should start calling FF7-10 middle Square and everything past that new square.
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#475 | creativename | Posted 8/16/2013 12:54:47 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
wait a minute.... FFVII is STILL considered NEW Square???

Considering this site mostly stopped playing video games in the early 2000's, I'd say its new enough >_>

I'd call FF13 post-modern Square.
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#476 | xp1337 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:55:14 PM | message detail | (edited)
Not that I was being serious there, but I was wondering if I should put a range on that category and if so, where.

At first I was just thinking the PS1 era but calling FFX new would still be pretty weird. Really, I think you could argue FFIX, FFX, or FFXII for different reasons.
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#477 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:57:15 PM | message detail
I'd go with 10 as the cut-off, even though it was on the PS2 it is closer to 7 than 12 by time.
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#478 | xp1337 | Posted 8/16/2013 12:59:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, FFX is probably a good spot for it.
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#479 | tgs2 | Posted 8/16/2013 1:03:12 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Even if Heart's top half is overrated a touch, it's nothing like the bombs the bottom half of Heart has rolled out. Three years of variance could account for this stuff as much as overrating, in either direction. At any rate it doesn't say anything conclusive about Sephiroth I think is the main point. You're not going to see an overperformance out of the big FF7 boys until they're up against sturdy competition, like Ryu in 2010.


I wouldn't say Layton, Isaac, and L-block bombed that hard(although yikes to Duke). Guess it just comes down to how Charizard performs in round 2.
#480 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/16/2013 1:05:07 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Considering this site mostly stopped playing video games in the early 2000's, I'd say its new enough >_>

We're not living in the past, people just known who they like and makes an impact.
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#481 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/16/2013 1:09:56 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say Layton, Isaac, and L-block bombed that hard(although yikes to Duke). Guess it just comes down to how Charizard performs in round 2.

We can't tell for sure for Layton or L-Block, Isaac underperformed a bit though.

The entire bottom half has made Charizard/Zelda into everything from a close match to an easy Zelda win and not a 58% win for Charizard the x-stats say
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#482 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:11:57 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Samus might be weaker too, for all we know, we'll just have to see. As hard as it is to believe now, she was riding high on OTHER M HYPE, which released just a few months after the 2010 contest.

Now you've got people worrying that the entire series is dead because of how much of a ridiculously spectacular flop it was. Nothing so much to threaten her against the lower tier of the Noble Nine, but perhaps a difference maker in a rematch with Cloud.


I used to think the same too, but for some reason Samus's round 1 performance made me think otherwise, although there's a good possibility she SFFd both her opponents there.

That said, Other M never performed particularly well in hype polls. I remember it losing to StarCraft II - aka a PC exclusive - in one such poll. And the game was released almost half a year after the 2010 character battle anyway, during the nomination period for Game of the Decade (which is why I think Prime got a 1 seed).

Also, putting aside any personal feelings about the game, I really don't see why people assume the series is outright dead. Yes, a new Metroid game has not been announced yet, but you know what else hasn't been announced? The next major Zelda, and a proper new mainline Mario game. I think all three will simply arrive at the end of the Wii U's life cycle.

Then again, maybe I'm just being fooled by Metroid getting representation in Nintendo Land, Samus being on a 3DS AR card, and her being one of the first characters announced for SSB4 - WITH HER OTHER M CHARACTER MODEL NO LESS. It's still better than Mega Man though, and I still feel that Nintendo is treating Metroid as a key franchise.
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#483 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/16/2013 1:16:19 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Yes, a new Metroid game has not been announced yet, but you know what else hasn't been announced? The next major Zelda


.....what?
*checks upcoming Zelda games*
.......
#484 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/16/2013 1:19:07 PM | message detail
The only console Zelda that's been announced is the Wind Waker HD. We won't be seeing/hearing a thing about the next brand new console installment until next E3 at the earliest.
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#485 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:23:42 PM | message detail | (edited)
I mean the Wii U's Zelda. A remake of Wind Waker does not count.

Otherwise, you could also take the route that whenever Nintendo had a remotely good E3 presentation, there was something related to a Metroid game there. I personally found E3 2013 to be underwhelming, while I have extremely fond memories of E3 2009 due to Other M and Super Mario Galaxy 2 both being announced.
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#486 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/16/2013 1:24:54 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...

It's not just legit character LFF but also that both of ? block's opponents are females from RPGs. And I doubt Fire Emblem and Mario have much overlap for Nintendo games. Proof would be Mario barely being able to SFF Ike, but at least both of them were playable in Brawl.


It's pretty hilarious if there is an actual voting bloc out there for female RPG characters.

Your second point, though, about Mario barely being able to SFF Ike......that's a very good point. All right, consider me convinced now - Mario and FE don't have much of an overlap.
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#487 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 1:26:11 PM | message detail
We still know the next Mario and Zelda are coming, and miscellaneous releases have already been confirmed for both series. Don't underestimate StarCraft II's hype, either.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3957

It was still *very* hyped considering how long it had been since StarCraft (SC isn't the world-beater the first games contest made it look like, but it's still a strong enough game here). Other M was definitely anticipated, especially by existing Metroid/Samus fans.

Compare to this after the game's release:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4209

Other M was deflating as s*** for longtime Metroid fans, made an actively unlikable Samus in the process, and... well, you get the picture. Samus may shake it off like Dante may DmC, but it is very much a discredit.
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#488 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:28:10 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, not to shoot my own upset special in the face, but on the note of Vincent Valentine...

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Falco_Lombardi_vs_GLaDOS_vs_Vincent_Valentine_vs_Wander_2008

...has KOS-MOS been brought up in the context of this match yet? Because I think she probably should be. :/


Extrapolating off of that gives KOS-MOS getting 53% on Falco, which sounds realistic enough.

Did Falco implode to like 30% on Vincent the round after?
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#489 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 1:30:46 PM | message detail
29%, actually.
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#490 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/16/2013 1:39:03 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Samus_Aran%27s_Contest_History

"Samus has come a long way and perhaps Other M can be the thing to put her over the top."

ahahahaha. ;_;
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#491 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:43:14 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
We still know the next Mario and Zelda are coming, and miscellaneous releases have already been confirmed for both series. Don't underestimate StarCraft II's hype, either.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3957

It was still *very* hyped considering how long it had been since StarCraft (SC isn't the world-beater the first games contest made it look like, but it's still a strong enough game here). Other M was definitely anticipated, especially by existing Metroid/Samus fans.

Compare to this after the game's release:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4209

Other M was deflating as s*** for longtime Metroid fans, made an actively unlikable Samus in the process, and... well, you get the picture. Samus may shake it off like Dante may DmC, but it is very much a discredit.


The thing about the next Zelda, fine. A proper mainline Mario game however has never been confirmed (Super Mario 3D World does not count, or at least it felt to me more like a follow-up to 3D Land than Galaxy).

I don't see how that poll proves anything about StarCraft II being hyped. The two games' closest competition was a PSP Kingdom Hearts game and a Halo game (this being in the same year Chief got 60% on SPY and lost to Ryu Hayabusa without putting up a fight).

As much as I don't want to bring personal opinions into this, I have honestly completely failed to spot any differences between Samus's characterization in Other M and in prior games. Completely failed. Unfortunately I have to take this thing I don't understand into account for contests.

Never mind how pretty much every major Nintendo game gets vocal backlash anyways.
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#492 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 1:45:24 PM | message detail
Not like Other M.

...Other M SPOILERS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrwN5jS4bt4

If there was characterization in earlier Metroid games where Samus literally turned onscreen into a sobbing little girl, I think I missed it.

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#493 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:45:40 PM | message detail
In hindsight, I don't even remember Nintendo ever mentioning that the next Zelda was in development. All I remember is:

-Wind Waker HD is being made to allow Nintendo's Zelda team to adjust to working with the Wii U.
-Nintendo wants the next Zelda to challenge series' conventions.

So it makes sense that Wind Waker HD would be finished, and then the team would move on to the next major Zelda after that.
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#494 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 1:46:57 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Is anyone expecting Sackboy to have any strength at all left? Seems like a flash in the pan character to me. Not sure whether that's enough to beat I'm A Cowboy.


I was thinking the same about Marston. He seems like the kind of character who would fade away pretty quickly. RDR is already three years old now.
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#495 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:48:44 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Not like Other M.

...Other M SPOILERS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrwN5jS4bt4

If there was characterization in earlier Metroid games where Samus literally turned onscreen into a sobbing little girl, I think I missed it.


I'm not even going to bother watching that video. Is it about the Ridley freakout?

I personally didn't see what was wrong with that at all, which is why I really started to think I'm missing something about the game. I think I just likened Ridley to Liquid Snake, remembered that Snake had a PTSD over Liquid in Metal Gear Solid 2, and just excused the whole thing off as a result. I've heard that Chris Redfield has a PTSD over Wesker in Resident Evil 6 as well.


But man, we really shouldn't be going into this.
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#496 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 1:50:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, people really shouldn't bother talking to LMS about anything, but especially Other M.
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#497 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/16/2013 1:52:29 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Is anyone expecting Sackboy to have any strength at all left? Seems like a flash in the pan character to me. Not sure whether that's enough to beat I'm A Cowboy.


I was thinking the same about Marston. He seems like the kind of character who would fade away pretty quickly. RDR is already three years old now.


I hear a lot about Red Dead Redemption, then again it probably doesn't help that it recently entered the top 10 in unikgamer (putting it ahead of the likes of Super Mario 64 and A Link to the Past, then again Portal 2 is #4 there and Half-Life 2 is #2...). It's probably just better to discredit the site, but the fact is I frequent it so that's how things go.

It's just hard for me to think RDR has faded away since it's one of the most highly-regarded games of this generation though.
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#498 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 1:52:55 PM | message detail
Case in point.
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#499 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/16/2013 1:53:23 PM | message detail
It's more that you're having trouble with acknowledging, uh, blatant sexism in video games. Not to go all Sarkeesian or anything on this, but while I've never been that fond of Samus it's extremely deflating to see her have to be constantly held back, manipulated, reaffirmed, or saved by controlling male figures without any apology for the behavior in the context of the story's presentation.

Snake's been played for a sucker too, but you don't see the game making out the Patriots to be heroes or something.
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#500 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 1:54:00 PM | message detail