Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1111

#351 | FFDragon | Posted 8/14/2013 10:46:03 PM | message detail
Have you seen Level 3 Jill?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=El4oWjm_mzI#t=1m14s

The player has no idea where she's going half the time. How's Kratos going to keep up with that?
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#352 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 10:47:33 PM | message detail
I'd rather not trust Jade as evidence of boosting in a match where in contrast to his (yes, it's a guy) earlier appearances he only had to deal with fodder (Otacon) and someone who's barely hovering around the fodder line, if not safely below it (Magus).
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#353 | creativename | Posted 8/14/2013 10:51:06 PM | message detail
Also has there been much discussion on Rikku/? Block vs. Zero?

I think Rikku can give Zero a scare, and if the block is strong enough to beat Rikku he's got a great shot at Zero.

And that match is SO important because Charizard's entire run is based on Zero winning.
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#354 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 10:52:05 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Also has there been much discussion on Rikku/? Block vs. Zero?

I think Rikku can give Zero a scare, and if the block is strong enough to beat Rikku he's got a great shot at Zero.

And that match is SO important because Charizard's entire run is based on Zero winning.


I think Rikku can give Zero a scare too.

But... if ? Block wins the match is Zero/Weighted Companion Cube/? Block.

It's impossible for Zero to lose this match.
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#355 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/14/2013 10:52:09 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
And if freakin' Jade can boost, why not the others?


Tales of the Abyss recently got a fairly popular 3DS rerelease, the first time TotA has ever been on a Nintendo system.
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#356 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/14/2013 10:53:06 PM | message detail
Jade, Yuri and Lloyd all looked better than people expected.

Though I'm not so sure it's as much of a Tales "boost" as it is them benefitting from the site becoming more insular and having less votes.
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#357 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 10:55:20 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Jade, Yuri and Lloyd all looked better than people expected.

Though I'm not so sure it's as much of a Tales "boost" as it is them benefitting from the site becoming more insular and having less votes.


That's effectively still a boost for the purposes of the contest if it were to be true, and it should apply similarly to Kratos A. But if he goes out and looks like crap, I think my skepticism should be considered valid.

And if he impresses, alright, I'll relent.
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#358 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/14/2013 10:56:12 PM | message detail
Lloyd didn't really look better, honestly. Pikachu still went to town on him. Big Daddy just managed to do worse.

Yuri did better because his game has had time to sink in now and because he wasn't facing Tifa.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#359 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/14/2013 11:08:52 PM | message detail
Red Bird bombing, as expected...nah, actually a little more than I thought. Losing to a poor Mike Haggar pic, even. It's nice to get two Expert "upsets" in a row correct (though I dangerously underestimated Travis).

If Red Bird is being well over TRIPLED by Jill, even Spyro looks glorious comparatively. I can only imagine what the blue bomber could do to the Red Bird....
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#360 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/14/2013 11:51:55 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Jade, Yuri and Lloyd all looked better than people expected.

Though I'm not so sure it's as much of a Tales "boost" as it is them benefitting from the site becoming more insular and having less votes.


I think this man may be on to something here...
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#361 | General_Zimbad | Posted 8/14/2013 11:56:49 PM | message detail
Got haggar>bird in expert. On 295 expert. 3 points off leaderboard.

Hopefully this is enough to get on again.
#362 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/15/2013 12:19:06 AM | message detail
General_Zimbad posted...
Got haggar>bird in expert. On 295 expert. 3 points off leaderboard.

Hopefully this is enough to get on again.


Should be.
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#363 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/15/2013 1:37:52 AM | message detail
Creeper vs. Clementine who wins?
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#364 | xp1337 | Posted 8/15/2013 1:41:33 AM | message detail
General_Zimbad posted...
Got haggar>bird in expert. On 295 expert. 3 points off leaderboard.

Hopefully this is enough to get on again.

Yeah, that should be good. You'll pass me at 298 and I imagine enough others had Red Bird in 2nd to jump ahead. Cutoff is probably going to be like 300 after this.
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#365 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/15/2013 1:42:16 AM | message detail
Yeah, I think Red Bird is probably going to be the favorite here, or at least enough people will have it that you should be able to make it.
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#366 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/15/2013 1:45:21 AM | message detail
What percentage does Jill get on Elizabeth if you assume Haggar = Poison?
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#367 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/15/2013 1:47:38 AM | message detail
Hope 4 points here will get me back to the top 10!
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#368 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/15/2013 1:54:15 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What percentage does Jill get on Elizabeth if you assume Haggar = Poison?


67.68%
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#369 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/15/2013 2:33:23 AM | message detail
What a massacre. Oh well, yet another instance of me being wrong about a character's strength!

Dunno if I'd go with Jill > Kratos quite yet, though honestly the only thing we really have to go on is Travis Touchdown between their opponents. I'm still leaning Kratos, especially with Mega Man there, but I've been wrong so damn much that my opinion usually means jack s***.
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#370 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/15/2013 3:02:12 AM | message detail
74.55%
69.23%
71.82%

Jill's last 3 updates.

What a beast
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#371 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/15/2013 3:06:58 AM | message detail
18/18 for this division once this match finishes up.

Makes up for my mistakes elsewhere.
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#372 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/15/2013 3:14:43 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
What a massacre. Oh well, yet another instance of me being wrong about a character's strength!

Dunno if I'd go with Jill > Kratos quite yet, though honestly the only thing we really have to go on is Travis Touchdown between their opponents. I'm still leaning Kratos, especially with Mega Man there, but I've been wrong so damn much that my opinion usually means jack s***.


Do Resident Evil and Mega Man really overlap much? They appeal to completely different fanbases and are products of two different eras. I don't think just being made by Capcom is quite enough to hurt Jill that much.
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#373 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/15/2013 3:34:40 AM | message detail
I can see Ryu and X overlapping because they both give off the same anime vibe, plus Mega Man X and Street Fighter have crossed over quite often. By contrast, Resident Evil and Mega Man only really overlap as far as Marvel vs. Capcom is concerned. If that series was as big for Capcom as Smash Bros. is for Nintendo, then the overlap would be a factor, but that's simply not the case.

Thinking about that, I honestly admire how Nintendo treats Smash Bros. as one of the company's most important franchises while other companies just treat their crossover franchises as afterthoughts, at least in comparison (see also: Dissidia, PlayStation All-Stars).
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#374 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/15/2013 3:38:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What percentage does Jill get on Elizabeth if you assume Haggar = Poison?


67.68%


Sounds about right, though it may be too low.

It looks like Jill has a new tradition: deliberately underseeding herself so that she can get a blowout win over overseeded fodder. Now she just needs to lose to Kratos by 27 votes next round.

(how the heck does a character lose by the same margin TWICE?)
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#375 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/15/2013 3:41:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
Red Bird turns out to be terrible, losing to Mike Haggar, who turns out to be a bit better than I expected. I would guess MvC3 matters a fair bit, which also explains good showings by the likes of Phoenix and Amaterasu. But the star of this poll is Jill, who kills it, and threatens to exact revenge on Kratos next round.

Round 1, Match 76

(2) Zero
(17) Kratos Aurion
(26) Boko

Zero wins, but eyes will be on his performance because whoever gets through between Rikku and ? Block may well have a chance at upsetting him. Another battle between fodder ensues for second place, and another one I feel like I'm going to get wrong.

Kratos A isn't a high bar to clear for Boko, but it is a bar. Lloyd got 32% on Fox in 2010 and exposed Big Daddy despite Pikachu's presence. Kratos A may have lost to Sackboy (really, it's Sackboy, how) but I suppose you could argue for him looking like halfway respectable fodder by taking him through to Leon. Screw it, going with my gut here - Boko it is. Can't Round 1 just end already?

Bracket: Zero
Expert: Zero > Boko > Kratos A
Oracle: Zero - 56%; Boko - 24%; Kratos Aurion - 20%
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#376 | General_Zimbad | Posted 8/15/2013 4:21:10 AM | message detail
Yeah I have no idea for Boko vs Kratos A either.

Not sure this time <_<
#377 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/15/2013 4:22:26 AM | message detail
If it was just "Chocobo" I would take it over Kratos, but the fact that it's narrowed down to just Boko has me hesitant
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#378 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/15/2013 4:45:48 AM | message detail
Boko is going to win this easily. If anything, I feel like Kratos would have a better chance if he was actually the biggest badass in the match.

Unfortunately, the match pic has him making the exact facial expression as Zero and he just looks woefully inadequate. Not even the Cruxis uniform makes up for it. :(
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#379 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/15/2013 4:46:29 AM | message detail
You can barely see Kratos's sword.This simply won't do.
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#380 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/15/2013 4:56:02 AM | message detail
So yesterday everyone said we can't look at Red performance as something special because he is against 2 fodders
Now everyone is crazy for Jill for being against worse fodder...?
#381 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/15/2013 5:27:21 AM | message detail
Red bird is doing so badly.When Jill scores almost 60% against 2 opponents something is wrong.
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#382 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/15/2013 5:57:21 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
So yesterday everyone said we can't look at Red performance as something special because he is against 2 fodders
Now everyone is crazy for Jill for being against worse fodder...?


Would we really take Corvo over Mike Haggar, considering how characters from older games generally wipe the floor with characters from super-new games?
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#383 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/15/2013 6:17:32 AM | message detail
Haggar and Red Bird would obliterate Corvo and Sissel. People actually recognize the former, and Haggar is actually a known and respected character.
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#384 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/15/2013 6:24:29 AM | message detail
As for next round, I wouldn't expect any special Mega Man/Jill SFF. The characters share almost nothing aside from the publisher name on their game boxes. Two completely different series that appeal to different demographics in different eras and on different consoles. Mega Man is a legend on the NES and SNES. Jill didn't exist on the Playstation. By the time Resident Evil released, Mega Man had already stopped getting games that most people cared about. I believe the only game they share is MvC2. Not too much potential for overlap here, and with Jill looking so much better than Kratos, I think it's safe to consider her the favorite.

The only worrying factor is that at this point, Kratos may be getting antivoted on levels comparable with the likes of Master Chief, and most of that hate would end up going to MM, not Jill.
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#385 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2013 6:58:18 AM | message detail
Match LXXVI: (2) Zero vs. (17) Kratos Aurion vs. (26) Boko

Previous Contest

Zero – 2010
67.17% against Marcus Fenix
43.31% against Auron

Kratos Aurion – 2010
45.42% against Sackboy

Boko – N/A
N/A

Analysis

Ever since 2006 Zero has been wasted in the bracket, I know you cannot have an interesting match every contest, but Zero is at least due for one. Maybe ? Block will turn out to have strength and pose a threat next round. Regardless Zero should have an easy time winning this match, even if Boko gets a chocobo effect boost I do not see Zero being threatened.

Tales characters may be weak, but they have looked half-decent in this contest. None are more than fodder, but sometimes it does not take much to look good in a match. Kratos Aurion is the strongest of the group, but he is not any more than high fodder himself. I feel his base strength will be too high for Boko, but Boko does have a large range.

It will be interesting to see where Boko ranks. If people are going to vote for him based on his role in Final Fantasy V then he is going to be very weak, but his appearance of a chocobo will no doubt give him a boost in votes. The obvious character to compare him with is Vivi who likely gets some votes from being a black mage. I do not see Boko being as strong as Vivi, mostly because Final Fantasy IX is a lot more popular than V thus Boko is almost entirely reliant on his appearance.

Boko could take second and I believe this could be a good test on whether or not to nominate Mog in a future contest. Maybe I have too much faith in that the average voter actually likes Vivi instead of him being a black mage, but I am going to go with a Tales character for second. Unless Boko shows to have real strength Zero should be able to break 50% in this match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zero > Kratos Aurion and Boko

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zero – 52.74%, Kratos Aurion – 25.37%, Boko – 21.89%
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#386 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/15/2013 7:00:32 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Jill didn't exist on the Playstation.


Oops.
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#387 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/15/2013 7:33:15 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Jill didn't exist on the Playstation.


Oops.


You almost became a Jill sandwich!
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#388 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/15/2013 7:38:54 AM | message detail
I meant "until" the Playstation. Still can't edit posts, sorry.
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#389 | Whupassman | Posted 8/15/2013 8:26:58 AM | message detail
Guess I'm picking Zero next match but feel like there's a major gun to my head over it.
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#390 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/15/2013 8:27:42 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I meant "until" the Playstation. Still can't edit posts, sorry.


I can confirm this is the worst part of using a work alt.
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#391 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:29:56 AM | message detail
Then your work alts need to buy more T-Shirts tbqh.
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#392 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:34:05 AM | message detail
Jill over Mega Man....?
Whaaaat?
Ok this is too much of overrating a character
This is more silly than Draven>Link theories
#393 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:42:27 AM | message detail
Plagued with indecision over Boko vs. Kratos Aurion...
#394 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/15/2013 8:47:31 AM | message detail
just bank
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#395 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:51:04 AM | message detail
If he was named Chocobo he would do MUCH better.Why no Chocobo people?
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#396 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:51:48 AM | message detail
NEW THEORY
Magikarp rssf'd MM
#397 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/15/2013 8:53:03 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
NEW THEORY
Magikarp rssf'd MM


Don't forget Geno!
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#398 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:53:42 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
If he was named Chocobo he would do MUCH better.Why no Chocobo people?


Because this is a character contest and "Chocobo" isn't a character. Boko is a character.
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#399 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:55:11 AM | message detail
Because this is a character contest and "Chocobo" isn't a character. Boko is a character.

A character contest with Pokemon

>_>
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#400 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/15/2013 8:55:47 AM | message detail
Just because the rule is flexible and dumb, doesn't mean it's not there.

<_<
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