Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1111

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:04:07 PM | message detail
Get ready for 24 straight hours of BirdFAQs

Also this is our last topic of all the same number until Part 2222!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
---
http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif
http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif
#2 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/14/2013 3:20:44 PM | message detail
If I'm still on this board when that number comes up, kill me
---
F*** BT
#3 | Dark Silvergun | Posted 8/14/2013 3:26:04 PM | message detail
Yes, 1111!
The 1 has been quadrupled!
---
Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation.
#4 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/14/2013 3:28:22 PM | message detail
1111, make a wish!
---
T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
#5 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 3:29:20 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
1111, make a wish!


Let's wish for Wrex to make round 3! We're the only Gurus who have that!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#6 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/14/2013 3:36:55 PM | message detail
That's a wish I could get behind!
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#7 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/14/2013 3:45:52 PM | message detail
From 30% on Zelda to losing to Recette... You suck Travis
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#8 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:46:57 PM | message detail
Are all these topics since the contests were started?
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#9 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:47:51 PM | message detail
I think most of the Cecil to R3ers are also gonna jump on the Wrex bandwagon, if only to deny the Red picks.

I've got Red but cheyah right voting against Wrex lol what a ridiculous notion
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#10 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/14/2013 3:48:47 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
HaRRicH posted...
1111, make a wish!


Let's wish for Wrex to make round 3! We're the only Gurus who have that!


It's about time we agree on an upset after all these years...!
---
T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
#11 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/14/2013 3:49:57 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I think most of the Cecil to R3ers are also gonna jump on the Wrex bandwagon, if only to deny the Red picks.

I've got Red but cheyah right voting against Wrex lol what a ridiculous notion


People have something other than Red in round 3?
---
Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#12 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:50:03 PM | message detail
make a wish time?
Red to break 50% round 2
I don't even HAVE a bracket
#13 | Articuno2001 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:50:38 PM | message detail
took Travis two hours to cut 50 votes

Recette gets it back in a half hour
---
Character Battle IX: 62/73 points, Next matches: Kratos, Jill Valentine
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#14 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:51:46 PM | message detail
Red to get over 50%... on Wario if he's lucky
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#15 | Whupassman | Posted 8/14/2013 3:54:03 PM | message detail
I'm guessing Red will walk it.
---
The Artist Commonly Known as The Hardcore Kid
#16 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 3:55:23 PM | message detail
Underestimate a krogan at your own peril.
---
http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif
#17 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:59:04 PM | message detail
"Do you want me to catch you?"

"I want you to try."
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#18 | Xuxon | Posted 8/14/2013 4:03:00 PM | message detail
i want Red to win so i can pretend Squall > Mario has a chance of happening

or if somehow Missingno wins, so Missingno > Mario has no chance of happening
---
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif
#19 | anondum | Posted 8/14/2013 4:05:38 PM | message detail
people are just underestimating recette. she's such a lovable character
#20 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:06:35 PM | message detail | (edited)
Xuxon posted...
i want Red to win so i can pretend Squall > Mario has a chance of happening


...You make a compelling argument.

But this might be the only contest Wrex ever makes (and this will almost certainly be the strongest he'll ever be in one of these things), so I want it to be a good one.

Red winning is only acceptable if it results in Squall winning, and then winning again next round against Samus/Charizard.
---
http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg
#21 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 4:06:56 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Red winning is only acceptable if it results in him winning the division.


hell yeah
LET'S DO THIS
#22 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:07:55 PM | message detail
Yes, that's what I said (with "him" implied to be Squall).
---
http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg
#23 | abdou | Posted 8/14/2013 4:08:09 PM | message detail
i can't believe Travis is losing to this..thing screw you 4chan

at least none of the touhou/little anime girls advanced to the second round, so this should be the last of them
---
...
#24 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 4:12:02 PM | message detail
lol any push for Red to win the division is gonna kill Mario, bring it on

Honestly you guys need to put your efforts behind Blue unless you just want to backstab other Nintendo characters. If Crono > Pikachu I think that there's a sorta decent chance of Blue winning the division regardless.

It may seem counter-intuitive, but Sora could end up hurting Crono more than Magus. Remember that MMX v Mario was a barnburner when Zelda was involved, but when Luigi was bringing down Mario instead MMX got smoked. Sora won't fold, and that could be Blue's ticket out of the division.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#25 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/14/2013 4:12:33 PM | message detail
Woh did Recette get some votes taken off, or is Travis gaining quickly?
---
Operation Rainfall: Three for Three
Xenoblade Chronicles, The Last Story & Pandora's Tower - released
#26 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:13:37 PM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Woh did Recette get some votes taken off, or is Travis gaining quickly?


Just the opposite. Recette is putting this match away.
---
http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png
#27 | ZFS | Posted 8/14/2013 4:15:21 PM | message detail
I see we're trying to get a Mario to loss going again
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#28 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/14/2013 4:15:28 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Woh did Recette get some votes taken off, or is Travis gaining quickly?


Just the opposite. Recette is putting this match away.


Hmm, I seem to remember she was farther ahead of Travis an hour or two into the match. Maybe it was percentage wise and not vote total.
---
Operation Rainfall: Three for Three
Xenoblade Chronicles, The Last Story & Pandora's Tower - released
#29 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:15:45 PM | message detail
It's for a good cause! Squall to the finals!
---
http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#30 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/14/2013 4:16:28 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
i can't believe Travis is losing to this..thing screw you 4chan

at least none of the touhou/little anime girls advanced to the second round, so this should be the last of them


Why are people so sore about this? Recette is a likable character from a fun and fresh game a lot of people have played on steam. She's nothing like the touhou characters in terms of appeal, and nobody was complaining when Missile beat Kerrigan with the exact same rally strength from the same place.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#31 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:16:36 PM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Hmm, I seem to remember she was farther ahead of Travis an hour or two into the match. Maybe it was percentage wise and not vote total.


Oh, she was up 500 votes at one point, but Travis cut it down to 250 votes before Recette just surged back up to 400.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#32 | ZFS | Posted 8/14/2013 4:17:23 PM | message detail
Any cause that tries to get Mario to lose before the finals is a bad one tbqh
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#33 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 4:17:43 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
nobody was complaining when Missile beat Kerrigan


I see
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#34 | Sorozone | Posted 8/14/2013 4:17:54 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
abdou posted...
i can't believe Travis is losing to this..thing screw you 4chan

at least none of the touhou/little anime girls advanced to the second round, so this should be the last of them


Why are people so sore about this? Recette is a likable character from a fun and fresh game a lot of people have played on steam. She's nothing like the touhou characters in terms of appeal, and nobody was complaining when Missile beat Kerrigan with the exact same rally strength from the same place.


Because Travis is awesome. Or expert points.

Don't see the big deal on Expert. Majority probably had Travis 2nd anyway. So everyone fails.
---
http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#35 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/14/2013 4:18:57 PM | message detail
How does one guy on /v/ get so many people to go along with a rally?
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#36 | Xuxon | Posted 8/14/2013 4:20:17 PM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/14/2013 7:12:02 PM | #024
It may seem counter-intuitive, but Sora could end up hurting Crono more than Magus. Remember that MMX v Mario was a barnburner when Zelda was involved, but when Luigi was bringing down Mario instead MMX got smoked. Sora won't fold, and that could be Blue's ticket out of the division.

that might have only been because the 4th character was Nintendo in the Zelda match and not in the Luigi match
---
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif
#37 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 4:21:12 PM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
How does one guy on /v/ get so many people to go along with a rally?


It's about attracting your target audience. He uses a picture of Recette, which piques the interest of people that like her while mostly screening out apathetic/anti-anime girl users. From there it's just a click to vote, and with /v/'s traffic it can make the difference in a super close match as long as you're keeping the topic bumped and visible. Considering 4chan's poor moderation, that's not very difficult.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#38 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:21:40 PM | message detail
Mario's easiest win over X was once Link got involved though.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#39 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/14/2013 4:21:48 PM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
How does one guy on /v/ get so many people to go along with a rally?


Recette is a mascot to /v/, it wouldn't be hard. They're a lot less successful for almost every other character when opinion is split.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#40 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:22:56 PM | message detail
(Of course, he let Zack get perilously close to him in that same match, but that's beside the point)
---
http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg
#41 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 4:23:24 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/14/2013 7:12:02 PM | #024
It may seem counter-intuitive, but Sora could end up hurting Crono more than Magus. Remember that MMX v Mario was a barnburner when Zelda was involved, but when Luigi was bringing down Mario instead MMX got smoked. Sora won't fold, and that could be Blue's ticket out of the division.

that might have only been because the 4th character was Nintendo in the Zelda match and not in the Luigi match


Eh, possibly, and it's hard to prove the converse, but what we can say definitively is that neither Zelda nor Mudkip folded to Mario. In that match, MMX nearly won. In the very next match, Luigi got blown off the face of the planet by his superior brother. MMX was never even in that match.

If there's overlap but the weaker entity can't be SFFed, that is by far the worst thing that can happen to the stronger character.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#42 | pjbasis | Posted 8/14/2013 4:23:31 PM | message detail
It's a shame Squall to the finals has to be the result of a lot of bad things (Cecil losing, Red winning, Link winning)
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#43 | homsar555 | Posted 8/14/2013 4:24:42 PM | message detail
I wonder how much support a Katawa Shoujo character could get from 4chan. Didn't that game sort of originate there?
#44 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:24:59 PM | message detail
#45 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 4:25:08 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Mario's easiest win over X was once Link got involved though.


That's because Mario being leeched doesn't have the raw power to SFF someone like X. Link, however, very much does.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#46 | Qwaar | Posted 8/14/2013 4:25:25 PM | message detail
So what does everyone have in their expert for the next match?
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#47 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:26:30 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
So what does everyone have in their expert for the next match?


Bird is the word

For second
---
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif
#48 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/14/2013 4:28:18 PM | message detail
Oh my God. Squall over Mario/Red SFF and then beating Samus/Charizard to give Link his easiest victory yet. Would watch just for Extha's reaction.
---
Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#49 | Xuxon | Posted 8/14/2013 4:28:58 PM | message detail
From: pjbasis | Posted: 8/14/2013 7:23:31 PM | #042
It's a shame Squall to the finals has to be the result of a lot of bad things (Cecil losing, Red winning, Link winning)

Cecil losing has nothing to do with that. he could have won in round 1 and it wouldn't affect the rest of those things.
---
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif
#50 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/14/2013 4:29:38 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Cecil losing has nothing to do with that. he could have won in round 1 and it wouldn't affect the rest of those things.


He would've had to lose to Red in round 2 if he didn't lose yesterday.
---
"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."