Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1110

#451 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 2:40:59 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Plus, how can you say Lugia wasn't that impressive when she (he?) outdid our Oracle predictions by over 9%? That's one of the biggest percentage overperformances of the whole contest so far!


I don't take Oracle over/underperformances all that seriously when all three characters are virtual unknowns, strength-wise (Yes, Sly Cooper was in a contest once, but that was 9 years ago). That's just everyone guessing.
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#452 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/14/2013 2:42:51 PM | message detail
This is looking like the typical rally bounce effect, I don't think Travis has enough steam to do enough damage that her lead and a rally every 3 hours can't deal with.
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#453 | Sorozone | Posted 8/14/2013 2:44:02 PM | message detail
Yeah the guy on /v/ isn't giving up. He bumps it every time it's about to purge.
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#454 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/14/2013 2:45:03 PM | message detail
Sly is one of the more recognizable entrants to get throttled. We haven't seen TOO many 60% beatdowns, and they're usually done by very recognizable characters against very unrecongizable ones. Yeah we've only seen Sly once, but he can still be considered one of those Sony mascot types, and those guys have looked quite good on the whole. Heck, I can argue that Lugia looks legit stronger than Ryu (Ryu really sucked, and during EVO weekend). Isn't that a scary thought.
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#455 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 2:46:56 PM | message detail
"Lugia looked stronger than Ryu" is about as valid a claim as my assertions that "Snake looked better than Link"

upset city let's do it
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#456 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 2:47:44 PM | message detail
There's only so good Sly Cooper is going to be. He's not on the same level of "immediate recognizability" that Crash, Ratchet, Jak, or Spyro are. The Sly games weren't nearly as popular as any of those.

I mean, you can argue it all you want, but Lugia's still going to lose to Frog next round anyway.
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#457 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 2:49:46 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Yeah the guy on /v/ isn't giving up. He bumps it every time it's about to purge.


so who's starting the Travis Touchdown rally
#458 | creativename | Posted 8/14/2013 2:51:42 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
On the bright side, it's been a banner year for animals.

Indeed. The only things to actually look good are animals, Mass Effect, Metal Gear Solid, and kinda sorta FFX.
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#459 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 2:52:05 PM | message detail
Also, Crash and Spyro are going to get exposed big time next round. You're going to see what happens to these guys when they're not the most well known guys in the match. It's the same thing that happened to Sly.
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#460 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 2:52:06 PM | message detail
Lara scored in the high 50s against her competition, too, and I'd argue Slime is as recognizable as Sly on GameFAQs, fo sho.

...nobody's takin' Lara to do nothin', I hope.
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 2:53:09 PM | message detail
I heard yoblazer on The Show predict Lara to beat Kefka next round...!
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#462 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/14/2013 2:53:51 PM | message detail
Slime is probably more recognizable than Sly

Lara for round 3 confirmed
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#463 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 2:54:02 PM | message detail
yoblazerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
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#464 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 2:55:26 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I heard yoblazer on The Show predict Lara to beat Kefka next round...!


well to be fair, Kefka is in the match
Kefka's matches never make sense
#465 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/14/2013 2:58:39 PM | message detail
I actually predicted Kefka to get third because I thought #1 was a lock to Sephiroth or Auron or something. Couldn't remember who else was in there. Now that I've remembered it's just Altair...

Kefka for third place still, with under 20%, and making Zack and Hayabusa look like horrible fodder.
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#466 | Sorozone | Posted 8/14/2013 2:59:39 PM | message detail
We all know Altair is gonna sneak out of that match.
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#467 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/14/2013 2:59:47 PM | message detail
People here aren't appreciating the likely trends indicating Zack dropped a ton and Ryu H continued his slide. Kefka is probably vastly overrated on the assumption that he's gone beastmode rather than Zack falling off a cliff so very possible that Lara could beat him.
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#468 | Sorozone | Posted 8/14/2013 2:59:55 PM | message detail
For my brackets sake anyway.
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#469 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:00:51 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Yeah the guy on /v/ isn't giving up. He bumps it every time it's about to purge.


Did you at least report him to the FBI?
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#470 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:01:03 PM | message detail
Altair's M.O. is to look good in round 1 and fold in round 2, so we'll see!
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#471 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:01:36 PM | message detail
The problem is we have no information on Lara's boost, even if Kefka remained constant to 2010 38% on Bowser is enough to win that match.
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#472 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:02:02 PM | message detail
Because we know if anything validates badass decline theory, it's Altair beating Kefka
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#473 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:02:08 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
TheCodeisBosco posted...
On the bright side, it's been a banner year for animals.


Indeed. The only things to actually look good are animals, Mass Effect, Metal Gear Solid, and kinda sorta FFX.


Agreed with all except MGS. MGS more or less lived up to expectations.....
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#474 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:02:12 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Altair's M.O. is to look good in round 1 and fold in round 2, so we'll see!


Lara>Altair>Kefka confirmed
Altair and Kefka to try their hardest to choke
#475 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:03:26 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
creativename posted...
TheCodeisBosco posted...
On the bright side, it's been a banner year for animals.


Indeed. The only things to actually look good are animals, Mass Effect, Metal Gear Solid, and kinda sorta FFX.


Agreed with all except MGS. MGS more or less lived up to expectations.....


If you were expecting Revolver Ocelot to look as strong as Zero against Auron, I commend you!
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#476 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:05:02 PM | message detail
Against LFF'd Auron, sure!

Pretty sure Otacon did worse than the board expectation, generally speaking though.
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#477 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:05:37 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
If you were expecting Revolver Ocelot to look as strong as Zero against Auron, I commend you!


board 8: calling for LFF in every situation except those with actual LFF
#478 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:07:40 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Against LFF'd Auron, sure!

Pretty sure Otacon did worse than the board expectation, generally speaking though.


Auron splitting with Roxas is fine, but Fossilot should have tempered that to a degree. I'm still salivating over what we could have maybe seen with a Major Ocelot picture.

As for Otacon - generally, maybe, but if you told me pre-contest Magus would fail to break 59% on Otacon I'd have called you crazy. That Otacon upset isn't nearly as prevalent if it doesn't potentially decide Crono v Pikachu. For as weak as Otacon should be, that ain't bad.
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#479 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:08:48 PM | message detail
You are manually realizing that the only MGS3 Ocelot pic we've ever seen was against Wily in the Villains Contest.
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#480 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:11:42 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
You are manually realizing that the only MGS3 Ocelot pic we've ever seen was against Wily in the Villains Contest.


And he made Wily look as weak as Nemesis! I rest my case!
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#481 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/14/2013 3:12:26 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Altair's M.O. is to look good in round 1 and fold in round 2, so we'll see!


Lara>Altair>Kefka confirmed
Altair and Kefka to try their hardest to choke


Oh, I know Kefka's got a LOT of experience choking.
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#482 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:13:01 PM | message detail
Wily couldn't even double Ultros! He's probably pretty weak as is.
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#483 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:13:51 PM | message detail
250 vote barrier activated, lol
#484 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/14/2013 3:14:08 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Wily couldn't even double Ultros! He's probably pretty weak as is.


Almost everyone in Villains was weak. There's a reason we haven't seen most of them return to the field.

...but it's Nemesis. I gotta draw the line here.
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#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:15:31 PM | message detail
#486 | Articuno2001 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:23:58 PM | message detail
A 36-vote gain after this was posted.

https://twitter.com/SpaceDrakeCF/status/367771816330145792
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#487 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:25:22 PM | message detail
Not much of an improvement for Recette on that update though. Travis just died there.
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#488 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/14/2013 3:31:01 PM | message detail
Looks like my no pick for 2nd and 3rd was justified at least.

Would have went with Recette but didn't have the guts and Travis still might make the comeback so it could be a good thing I didn't.

Too bad I'm too far behind in the Expert for my points to matter at the moment!
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#489 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:32:24 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Looks like my no pick for 2nd and 3rd was justified at least.

Would have went with Recette but didn't have the guts and Travis still might make the comeback so it could be a good thing I didn't.

Too bad I'm too far behind in the Expert for my points to matter at the moment!


how many expert points do you even have?
#490 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/14/2013 3:33:12 PM | message detail
284

I haven't checked the leaderboard in a long time since I'm scared to see how far back I am
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#491 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/14/2013 3:33:49 PM | message detail
He has less than 2000 followers so wouldn't expect a huge impact.
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#492 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:34:10 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
284

I haven't checked the leaderboard in a long time since I'm scared to see how far back I am


lol
13 points away from the leaderboard
#493 | Articuno2001 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:36:11 PM | message detail
regardless, Travis seems to have fallen off a cliff
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#494 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/14/2013 3:36:54 PM | message detail
Considering there's only like what, 300 people even still bothering with expert by the looks of the scoreboard last I checked, 13 points behind is pretty bad. I think it even puts me in the bottom 50% of the active players
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#495 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:40:07 PM | message detail
if there were really only 300 people still doing it, I really should be in the top 300 by now, but I'm not....!
(lol starting at match 25)
#496 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/14/2013 3:41:23 PM | message detail
Well, I mean people who started from the beginning and are still doing it.

I doubt anyone who has like, less than 220 points at the moment has predicted every match.
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#497 | Lopen | Posted 8/14/2013 3:44:13 PM | message detail
If I'd predicted every match I probably would only have like 200 right now.
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#498 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/14/2013 3:44:34 PM | message detail
#499 | Articuno2001 | Posted 8/14/2013 3:44:57 PM | message detail
Play Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale.
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#500 | Whupassman | Posted 8/14/2013 3:45:03 PM | message detail
C'est fini..
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