GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1110
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Assuming I did the math right, according to this match and the 27-seeds poll, Mega Man would score over 90% on Crono. Food for thought. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
But what about Geno? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
77.95% on Crono. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
how is Geno not more popular here He's like an intersection of everything this site loves --- For your SuperNiceDog. At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza |
Meh wasn't around when this started, did Magiarp win the board vote at least? --- I have Cloud winning this contest, which means I'll beat most of you... Nawt gonna happen >_> |
Speaking of, here's the glorious trend chart: Time | Pit | Wrex | Cecil | Votes 0:05 | 42.66% | 27.27% | 30.07% | 143 1:00 | 29.91% | 35.56% | 34.53% | 4955 2:00 | 28.45% | 35.92% | 35.63% | 3744 3:00 | 29.30% | 37.85% | 32.85% | 3297 4:00 | 30.78% | 36.59% | 32.63% | 2924 5:00 | 28.06% | 38.35% | 33.59% | 2623 6:00 | 28.42% | 38.08% | 33.50% | 2579 7:00 | 29.64% | 38.00% | 32.36% | 2321 8:00 | 28.19% | 37.84% | 33.97% | 2146 9:00 | 27.98% | 37.94% | 34.08% | 1919 10:00 | 29.33% | 37.06% | 33.62% | 1889 11:00 | 28.31% | 39.36% | 32.33% | 1720 12:00 | 26.03% | 40.10% | 33.86% | 1571 Pit is strongest right out of the gate, just like Hades and Palutena were. Pretty balanced throughout the match though. Cecil actually does better in the first half of the match than the second. Wrex dominates the last two hours of the match. Wrex-stats: Urdnot Wrex – 50.00% Cecil Harvey – 47.43% Pit – 43.62% Wrex's prediction percentage was 23.71% --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
Also,
I've actually successfully picked three out of the top four lowest
prediction percentages so far (Yuna, Wrex, and Catherine), although I
had actually flip-flopped in my Expert to Cecil and Neku by the time
those matches actually rolled around! --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
spooky96 posted... Meh wasn't around when this started, did Magiarp win the board vote at least? Magikarp was winning for a few minutes, yeah. --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
23%?Wrex you wrecked the brackets! --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Magikarp
flops and splashes, but Mega Man is untroubled, blasting the fish out
of the contest. Good showing all the same though - 37% on Mega Man is
very respectable. Geno does nothing much. Round 1, Match 74 (6) Kratos (13) Travis Touchdown (22) Recette Kratos wins, of course. I'm interested to see how Travis does here, though. 30% on Zelda was quite a bit more than many expected him to get, and if he's held his strength from 2010 - no guarantees there - he should get notably more than that on Kratos. I don't think Recette will be able to challenge him, but if he's completely died it might be possible - anime girls don't go down easily, it seems. Bracket: Kratos Expert: Kratos > Travis > Recette Oracle: Kratos - 54%; Travis Touchdown - 28%; Recette - 18% --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Man,
I'm still kind of pissed off that I switched my expert from Pit >
Cecil to Cecil > Pit, since it resulted in more points lost in the
end thanks to Wrex. And I can't believe 2 pages of the last topic were dedicated to Kenzorsis Kashakashaka continuing to spout his League of Losers BS. Draven is going to be crushed under the combined weight of X/Ryu, and any rally attempt will be far more diluted, as Draven actually has competition in characters that people will vote for. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Okay right now I think these characters are all around the same strength level: Mr. Game & Watch Crash Bandicoot Spyro the Dragon Epona Marth Ike Proto Man Ratchet Does this sound justifiable? And...would anyone pick any of these guys over Master Chief? --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
There
is some truth to that.Do you know how many people play LOL?If only a
tiny fraction votes for him he wins.And I hope that they manage to
organize an amazing rally. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
MoogleKupo141 posted... how is Geno not more popular here What would be his greatest strength is really his downfall. Geno could be decent, but because of his Nintendo/Square heritage and the fact that he's low on the totem pole, he overlaps seemingly with everyone and they pull rank on him. So far, he's been in a million contests, and has yet to draw anyone that's not Nintendo or Square. Hell, he even got Bowser once, and Bowser would probably damage him worse than Mario would. When Ness SFFs you, it's bad news. Still, there's the possibility he's at least high fodder and over-performs on a Master Chief or Nathan Drake. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... MoogleKupo141 posted...how is Geno not more popular here I think it's just a case of a low Super Mario RPG playrate, even on this site. --- 'We will see a similar beam of particles coming out of the soil on the other side of the planet. Then we will know there is a little quasar inside the planet. |
But Street Fighter 2 lost! --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Now I really feel that all this debate over who's likely to win out of Lightning and Donkey Kong is unwarranted as it's Donkey Kong,
who can only be counted on to choke (strike 1), Nintendo has performed
like crap in a lot of its debated matches (strike 2), and Donkey Kong's
got to deal with SFF from Falco (strike 3, DK's out). But I suppose
Donkey Kong might have improved, for what it's worth... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Then00bAvenger posted... But Street Fighter 2 lost! 1. Nine years ago. 2. The 'brand' name of the game is certain to pick up a lot of people who haven't properly played the game (Contains Mario; the word 'RPG'; tribal Square fans probably know it's a Square game) 3. The actual characters are not going to pick up those non-player voters due to lack of recognition. --- 'We will see a similar beam of particles coming out of the soil on the other side of the planet. Then we will know there is a little quasar inside the planet. |
It's probably more likely that Falco upsets Donkey Kong at this point. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
I'm still in favor of nuking the "bonus poll" out of existence and speeding up this contest we're not actually gonna get a fodderfight bonus match |
I
agree, there is no issue of having the first second round poll as the
day poll, it also eliminates the need for another bonus poll after the
second round. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 58/72 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Kratos |
karp --- after coming into contact with a religious man i always feel i must wash my hands |
Match LXXIV: (6) Kratos vs. (13) Travis Touchdown vs. (22) Recette Lemongrass Previous Contest Kratos – 2010 60.98% against Miles “Tails” Prower 45.51% against Charizard Travis Touchdown – 2010 29.33% against Zelda Recette Lemongrass – N/A N/A Analysis Kratos should have an easy time winning this match given his opponents are two fodder characters. There is a chance that Kratos is weaker than what we saw in 2010 due to God of War III being released during the contest and the game had a bit of hype, but Sony has been doing a good job milking the franchise with all those HD releases and packages since we last saw him. At the very least anyone who owns a Playstation 3 should have heard of Kratos. Despite not having a very high opinion of Travis he should have an easy time finishing in second. He was not completely crushed against Zelda and since 2010 his first game has been ported to the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 which should give him a slight boost in strength, even if the ports were not well received. I was prepared to place Recette as one of the weakest characters in the entire bracket until I found out 4chan really likes her. I do not feel they can get her to second place, but at the very least they may make her more than turbo fodder. This will also give us a chance to see how well SBAllen’s new anti-vote stuffing software works as there is no doubt some people will try to stuff this poll. Kratos should be able to break 50% easily in this poll and could even push for 60% unless the Recette rally gets ridiculous. I have a feeling that Kratos may disappoint to some people’s expectations, they see what he got on Charizard yet think it was the same Charizard against Bowser and even Mario. charmander6000’s Bracket: Kratos > Travis Touchdown and Recette Lemongrass charmander6000’s Prediction: Kratos – 57.63%, Travis Touchdown – 28.36%, Recette Lemongrass – 14.01% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 58/72 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Kratos |
There's also really no issue of extending the contest by 12 hours. It really changes nothing in the grand scheme of things. --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... There's also really no issue of extending the contest by 12 hours. It really changes nothing in the grand scheme of things. yes it does ;) (also do you really want two "how is this contest" polls) |
Well,
if you're so concerned about certain characters getting day matches as
opposed to night matches or vice-versa, it'd be pretty unfair for Bacon
to change that around just for the heck of it since a lot of people made
predictions based on when the match would be held. (also the second bonus poll won't be a "How is this contest" poll) --- http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... (also the second bonus poll won't be a "How is this contest" poll) wait what how do you know that |
....Something I just realized (and I'm sure someone has asked)... Why was Amaterasu allowed in all these years (until now)? --- ~War~ |
It's
one of my most stubborn picks I've made, but screw it -- still don't
think Lightning is going to beat Donkey Kong. I've got next to no
respect for FF13 here and even less off of GameFAQs, FF13-2 will mean
zilch according to my 2012-theory (which people would have cared for if
people liked FF13), Dissidia's back in question, and her Rivalry Rumble
vote-in was worse than embarrassing. Hype-Lightning >> today's
Lightning. Falco is a big detriment and DK's a known choker, but DKCR is his biggest game since the SNES (DK64 doesn't exist) and I wouldn't take any FF12-characters to win this match either. Still, I'd feel better if DK had TJF..... --- T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
Lightning losing to DK with Falco in the poll would be the most embarassing result for Square since Balthier/Ada I. ....or Balthier/Ada/Amaterasu, depending on if you think Dante should have hurt one of the two Capcom character at least slightly. --- ~War~ |
HaRRicH posted... It's one of my most stubborn picks I've made, but screw it -- still don't think Lightning is going to beat Donkey Kong. I've got next to no respect for FF13 here and even less off of GameFAQs, FF13-2 will mean zilch according to my 2012-theory (which people would have cared for if people liked FF13), Dissidia's back in question, and her Rivalry Rumble vote-in was worse than embarrassing. Hype-Lightning >> today's Lightning. I guess DKCR might do him some good, but you know what they say - a leopard doesn't change his spots. It doesn't help his case that Nintendo characters have looked bad in a lot of debated matches... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
I can definitely see Donkey Kong winning that match, but I'll stick with my gut and take Lightning in my Expert challenge. --- Proud supporter of DogFAQs |
I'd have taken practically any Nintendo character of the slightest worth in that pack other than Donkey Kong. Heck I have more faith in Falco beating Lightning than Donkey Kong <_< --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
You people are nuts. --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
Karma Hunter posted... I'd have taken practically any Nintendo character of the slightest worth in that pack other than Donkey Kong. Same here >_> --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Yeah,
DKCR should have been a big help for DK. That's his first game since
these contests started that was actually very well received and sold
well, and DKCR2 is coming out soon. Still would take him 1v1, and
Lightning is probably gonna suck, but Falco messes it up. Damn you Star
Fox --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
watch DK win with Falco there anyway --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
Also Charizard's going to beat Mega Man GOD DAMNIT --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
I
still feel confident in Lightning. If nothing else a lot of people like
her despite not liking XIII, DK chokes a lot and Falco being there
doesn't help DK or Falco himself. Lightning might have a bad board vote
though since people seem mixed on her here overall. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
It
all depends on how hard Mega Man can put the afterburners on Zero this
year. If he can do an impression of what Fox did this year, he'll win
comfortably. If Zero refuses to fold... yeah ain't much he can do other
than hope Charizard is even worse than my worst case scenario estimates. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
HaRRicH posted... It's one of my most stubborn picks I've made, but screw it -- still don't think Lightning is going to beat Donkey Kong. I've got next to no respect for FF13 here and even less off of GameFAQs, FF13-2 will mean zilch according to my 2012-theory (which people would have cared for if people liked FF13), Dissidia's back in question, and her Rivalry Rumble vote-in was worse than embarrassing. Hype-Lightning >> today's Lightning. It was a terrible rivalry, I don't know who even considered it a rivalry. Not to mention that every other FFXIII character are held in poor regard. Public opinion is generally that she's a very well liked character but burdening her with any other FFXIII character and a terrible rivalry in a polly with Yuna/Seymour was always going to look pathetic. --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... LeonhartFour posted...(also the second bonus poll won't be a "How is this contest" poll) Because that would be stupid. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
Man, Charizard is gonna wreck this mega scrub also wait a minute STREET FIGHTER 2 LOST!? --- F*** BT |
Wait, we're judging Lightning from an SFF beatdown in a Rivalry Rumble vote-in poll? I don't think she'll be worth much but c'mon guys that's just cruel. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
TheKoolAidShoto posted... Man, Charizard is gonna wreck this mega scrub I was waiting for it! And yeah, KH my thinking is that if Mega Man holds up this poorly to Magikarp, the Zard is gonna clean him with Zero in the picture. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
I
wouldn't judge it on Magikarp. He's clearly getting *some* strength
from being a joke character. Let's take a look at Charizard's own
strength. Honestly, while the odds are still vanishingly slim imho, he
has to worry about against Zelda. Or maybe Lightning will actually be worth something and beat them both while they knock each other out! Hahahahahahaha I slay myself --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Threw away a vote on Geno out of spite. Would do it again. In a heartbeat. --- The Artist Commonly Known as The Hardcore Kid |
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