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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1109
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"I'm gonna go see if the Quarians have anything to eat. All that Turian food gave me the runs. " ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg ~Masa |
So, I'm just seeing the poll for the very first time. Da f***? --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... So, I'm just seeing the poll for the very first time. Now we can get back to what krogan do best - saving everyone else from giant monsters. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Now I'm really wondering if this Old Square boost even happened... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Fayt_Esteed posted... Now I'm really wondering if this Old Square boost even happened... Cecil is still beating down on Pit in the middle of the day, in a match where Pit was the heavy board favorite. You do realize he once got tripled by Kirby, right? --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Guys,
I'm pretty sure that this won't happen, but I would mark the **** out
if Urdnot Wrex avoided getting doubled by Red next round. Any thoughts
on the probability of that? >_> --- http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg ~Masa |
Masato_Tanaka posted... Guys, I'm pretty sure that this won't happen, but I would mark the **** out if Urdnot Wrex avoided getting doubled by Red next round. Any thoughts on the probability of that? >_> ...you have no grasp of what being weak enough to get doubled by Red next round would mean, do you? Wrex has a much better chance of winning than being doubled. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...Now I'm really wondering if this Old Square boost even happened... I know about him being wrecked by Kirby and all that. I just find it hard to consider the Old Square boost to have happened when the only ones who even impressed were FF6 characters (other than Locke, that is, but in all fairness, this IS his first contest). --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Fayt_Esteed posted... Karma Hunter posted...Fayt_Esteed posted...Now I'm really wondering if this Old Square boost even happened... Rydia put on a monster show. She had hours that she won outright over Alucard and Falcon. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Masato_Tanaka posted...Guys, I'm pretty sure that this won't happen, but I would mark the **** out if Urdnot Wrex avoided getting doubled by Red next round. Any thoughts on the probability of that? >_> lol yeah, because Pokemon Trainer wouldn't be making guys like Cecil and Pit look like crap. nahhh I doubt that, I think Red is gonna look pretty damn good next round dude --- http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg ~Masa |
Can't wait for Red to lose --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Masato_Tanaka posted... Karma Hunter posted...Masato_Tanaka posted...Guys, I'm pretty sure that this won't happen, but I would mark the **** out if Urdnot Wrex avoided getting doubled by Red next round. Any thoughts on the probability of that? >_> You don't have understanding of how weak that would be. Red couldn't even quad Corvo (*what* is a Corvo), now he's going to double Wrex with WARIO holding him down? --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
CHARIZARD
couldn't double Duke Nukem. Anyone wanna take Red (with Wario in the
poll) > Charizard *and* Duke > Wrex? Any takers??? --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...Karma Hunter posted...Fayt_Esteed posted...Now I'm really wondering if this Old Square boost even happened... Conceded. Though with everyone focused on the GLORIOUS BATTLE between Captain Falcon and Alucard... I can't help but think most people weren't really paying attention to her. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Yo,
I think you're either overrating Samus and Snake or underrating Mega
Man, or both. Mega Man was the one who went almost even with Sephiroth
back in 2002. Our general consensus is that the top end of the field is
weaker than then, not stronger. If Smash can get MM back to anywhere
near his original level, he could definitely be in the mix for the spot
behind Link (though I am personally of the opinion that Cloud is still
our #2). Even though Mario SFFs Mega Man directly, I can definitely see
him beating Snake or Samus. I would love to see either of those 1v1
against Mega Man for 24 hours. |
Mega
Man is already so Nintendo and SSB4 is so much less hyped than Brawl
that I don't think MM can make either the Snake or Samus match
competitive. It's like how Sonic's SSB boost was very muted compared to
Snake's. And MM is very far behind in both scenarios. Samus and Snake have just shredded him as of late. Though I do wonder what the people giving Mega Man no chance in the semis (assuming he gets there) think he'll be scoring relative to Mario. He's starting out at 42% on Mario post-SFF. With Samus holding him down and SSB4 hype added to his strength, what percentage are people expecting if he can get there? --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
XD at people thinking that Mega man would come anywhere close to Samus or Snake just because of that Smash announcement. --- Zinsanity of the Helix Board |
wrex is... wrexing your bracket |
It's hard for me to envision next round. Wario, Red, and Urdnot Wrex? Today's victory is so odd that I can't really imagine what's going to happen. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Mega
Man's "original level" involved him outperforming pre-Metroid Prime
Samus by only 2% against Sephiroth. He'd lose against her now even if he
was at said "original level," speculation about Link being weaker than
in 2002 in cross-year x-stats be damned. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Mega
Man can't make a match competitive with Snake or Samus, because he's
already so Nintendo and Smash 4 is less hyped than before, but he has a
shot at Mario because of Samus and Smash 4 hype? MM won't be unphased in
a match full of stronger Nintendo characters. I think he could get
second, but still more likely to finish last than first. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Samus
is very much a Smash entity, if Mega Man had been in SSB from the
beginning she'd never be able to beat him. If this was Brawl, Mega Man's
announcement would mean a lot more. It should still mean something,
though: even with all the speculation that Samus SFFed Snake's Brawl
support in 2006, Snake still jumped from being worth 43% on Samus to 47%
on her in a direct match. That means just an announcement caused potentially 4% of the voters to switch their votes from Samus to Snake, in a direct match. Depending on how you think Samus v Mega Man goes 1v1 and how much SSB4 will be worth, it could be interesting. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2911 All MM could do was put kind of a scare in her, and that was with Yoshi in the poll and this match pic: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb6/cb6-49.jpg He's too far behind and Smash isn't enough. He needs actual Mega Man games. Hyped, next-gen, well received, high selling, HD Mega Man games. And he'll never get them, sadly. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
ZFS posted... Mega Man can't make a match competitive with Snake or Samus, because he's already so Nintendo and Smash 4 is less hyped than before, but he has a shot at Mario because of Samus and Smash 4 hype? MM won't be unphased in a match full of stronger Nintendo characters. I think he could get second, but still more likely to finish last than first. That's not what I asked. I asked what percentage you think he'll score on Mario in that match. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
SPOILERS FOR MASS EFFECT 1!!! So Wrex did it.I wonder what the gurus had for this match.Funny though how a party member of ME 1(that can be killed too mid-game,meaning without an imported save from ME 1 that lives)you can't see him again in ME 2 and ME 3. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
I
couldn't tell you. I'm so far removed from the stat aspect since we
switched to multiways, and what the percentages come out to be with
other characters in there, that I'd be throwing random things out. I do
know that I'm confident Mega Man, or Samus, won't give Mario a scare in
that match, though. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
I'm
not sure how Smash-centric Samus is. Yeah, she had fewer games than
Sonic and Mega Man, but Super Metroid was far stronger than anything
those two had. Just as Sonic was Mario's big rival even though his games
were far less popular, Samus has always been regarded as Nintendo's #3
legend behind Mario and Link. I'm sure that reputation would have
propelled her to great strength even if we had held contests back in
2000-2001. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
ChenKenichiFan posted... I'm not sure how Smash-centric Samus is. Yeah, she had fewer games than Sonic and Mega Man, but Super Metroid was far stronger than anything those two had. Just as Sonic was Mario's big rival even though his games were far less popular, Samus has always been regarded as Nintendo's #3 legend behind Mario and Link. I'm sure that reputation would have propelled her to great strength even if we had held contests back in 2000-2001. Super Metroid is losing to things like Super Mario Kart on this site. It's just not worth that much, Mister Mario Kart > Mega Man. :P And the reason I ask percentages is because I don't think people are expecting Mega Man to do worse than he did last contest with Samus in the match and SSB4 hype. So, I start thinking about what he *will* score. 46, 47, maybe 48%... wait, if I think he might be able to get 48% on Mario in that poll, isn't it possible that he'll win? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3279 THIS POLL HAPPENED GUYS I'M NOT CRAZY --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
If Pit finishes above 30% it will be an amazing match.Let us hope it happens. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Samus and Mega Man robot LFF each other and Mario wins 40/30/30 --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
dammit robot fanbase split Samus is a HUMAN --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
But
that's kinda what I'm saying: in terms of game-to-character strength
correlation, Samus, Sonic, and Mega Man are the weakest Noble 9ers. So
what propels them? Their status and reputation. Sonic and Mega Man had
commercials and cartoon shows and were - dare I say it - artificially
inflated as legends. Samus has the same; not as much exposure, but she
was always considered Nintendo's #3 legend and Super Metroid did
generate a lot of hype for her way back in the day. I think that status -
a status she's always had - did more for early strength than Smash did.
Then of course, she get Metroid Prime in 2002 and it didn't matter
much. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
But
yeah my main thrust is I don't feel good at all about Mario in the
finals, despite my having him there (and that probably being Snake's
only route to victory). We've already seen that throwing Zelda/Mudkip in
the mix nearly causes him to lose to Mega Man X. Is Samus worth more or
less than that? Is SSB4 Mega Man/Charizard worth more or less than X? I don't feel good trusting that fat plumber dammit --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... But yeah my main thrust is I don't feel good at all about Mario in the finals, despite my having him there (and that probably being Snake's only route to victory). We've already seen that throwing Zelda/Mudkip in the mix nearly causes him to lose to Mega Man X. Is Samus worth more or less than that? Is SSB4 Mega Man/Charizard worth more or less than X? Mega Man is probably a bit stronger than X. Charizard is far weaker than both and much more susceptible to Mario SFF (yeah, yeah, I saw 2010 too). Mario is very safe if Charizard is in that match. |
Mario is bad at if not outright incapable of SFFing Zelda and Pokemon, whereas we know it can SFF Metroid pretty well! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Even if Charizard is a fraud, it won't matter if by the semifinals he gets another bandwagon. If he pulls himself up to post-SFF 46.5% again does Samus's presence backstab Mario? IT CAN HAPPEN --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I
think Zelda and a Pokemon are a lot worse than Samus. I'd trade two
those for Samus, for sure. Any time a Pokemon is involved in multiways,
especially during the four way times, it gets weird and hairy. Samus
won't completely roll over, but dammit, she's not a Pokemon and won't
inspire that crazy fanaticism that gets 20k people to vote for a MUDKIP.
That's just a match I wouldn't ever expect Mario to lose. This is a separate topic, but I also don't see him folding to Link in the finals, because I think the one time he did that was in the Battle Royale, when it ran for consecutive days and Link almost lost day 1. There's no day 2 final here! Doesn't seem like something Link has going for him, crushing Mario to win, on that first go. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
AxemRedRanger posted... Mario is bad at if not outright incapable of SFFing Zelda and Pokemon, whereas we know it can SFF Metroid pretty well! Depends on the match. 2005 is a universe behind us now, and in the latest matches we've seen with Mario and Samus she's hung tough in there with him. Besides, she won't have to do much to hang the same or better percentage on Mario that Zelda did, she's wayyyyyyyy stronger than her. ...and she SFFed Zelda last contest, come to think of it. Uh oh --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
you guys are doing it wrong Mario and Samus steal votes from each other, Charizard wins, then refuses to fold against Link, giving Snake the victory |
AxemRedRanger posted... Mario is bad at if not outright incapable of SFFing Zelda and Pokemon, whereas we know it can SFF Metroid pretty well! This may be true but is quite irrelevant. Mudkip and Zelda aren't going to be stronger than a post-SFF Samus. Samus 60/40s Zelda on a bad day. Samus being in a poll will hurt Mario more than Zelda ever could. And KH, Charizard isn't getting that close to Mario ever again. He had a major game released on that day. We saw what that could do for Mario back in the day, and 2002 Mario is probably lucky to not get 55/45d by Cloud (at best) on any other day. That's a huge percentage, plus a strong bandwagon at work there. I think a few other small factors went in the Zard's favor on that day. I'd be shocked if he broke 42% on Mario ever again. |
ChenKenichiFan posted... What if Samus outright wins, THAT would be amazing. Ulti never lives it down, ever --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
TheOneAboveAll posted... AxemRedRanger posted...Mario is bad at if not outright incapable of SFFing Zelda and Pokemon, whereas we know it can SFF Metroid pretty well! Nah bro, that was Bowser. Charizard might have still had some HG/SS afterglow, but at that point you're at total bandwagon city. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I
called him the wildcard but I didn't think he'd actually hog wild over
the poll, but the hero of the hour is Urdnot Wrex, coming from the
obscurity of Mass Effect 1 to put Pit and Cecil out to pasture. There's
all sorts of theories going around about what this victory means,
especially since it's unlikely Wrex completely outclasses Mordin, never
mind gets close to Garrus. Does it mean Epona, Sub-Zero and Shepard all
come off looking strong? Or does it reflect that Pit and Cecil are
simply weaker than expected? We'll find out in round two. For now
western gaming has a hero, and a hope. Round 1, Match 72 (1) Mega Man (18) Geno (27) Magikarp Magikarp only scraped enough noms together to draw a 27-seed, so he's left with an extremely tough draw against Mega Man in round one. Jigglypuff got 26% on X, so I'd assume Magikarp should be able to do substantially better here. How much better is anyone's guess, but I respect the 41% he pulled in the vote-in poll sufficiently that I think he'll hold up very well. The competition there included some halfway decent fodder and he proved he would slaughter any of it in a real match (for me, anyway). Geno got doubled by Ness so he probably folds into the low double digits here, if not lower. Bracket: Mega Man Expert: Mega Man > Magikarp > Geno Oracle: Mega Man - 59.5%; Magikarp - 31%; Geno - 9.5% --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Kotetsu534 posted... There's all sorts of theories going around about what this victory means, especially since it's unlikely Wrex completely outclasses Mordin, never mind gets close to Garrus. Damn it yoblazer how many other people like this do you have subscribing to your newsletter --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I don't think I could take Zard in the final. It's like divide and conquer for Link. =( --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
oh god that match is tomorrow isn't it speaking of insane pokemon fans --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
If Crono was in Megaman's position he would have another chance at being humiliated by a pokemon again. ...Oh wait he gets humiliated by a pokemon in round 2 anyway --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
I don't think "wouldn't completely outclass Mordin" means "would lose to Mordin". --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
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