GameFAQs Contests

KanzarisKelshen posted...

No, the assumption is that the 'core demographic' of the site, the guys that have been here for a long time and stuck around even as the kids stopped coming, favors certain characters more than others because they hit certain notes better.

There is no basis for this whatsoever. It's just been a general assumption we've always held that cult characters do better with lower vote totals, but it doesn't really ever hold up.
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Achromatic posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Achromatic posted...

When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.

All of this logic can be applied to FF7. If Phoenix benefits from reduced vote totals, why not KOS-MOS? I had Kefka winning his match, people putting Zack over him were just suckered by bad logic.

There's no appreciable difference in any of this outside of pure, unadulterated bias.

No, it really can't. You are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Vincent has been, up until this year, rock solid as a near elite. Rock. Solid. We'll have to see how he performs next round but his round 1 doesn't look good for him at all. And as much as you say "unproven" about Rinoa and Hero, Aerith got less on Hero directly than she did on Sora in 2003. I love my Hero, but that's bad for her.

But whatever, lead your crusade. I am just going to stop talking to you since you are obviously full of it lol.

Are we really sure that using 3-4 ways stats to calculate a 1vs1 match is failproof...?

77% on Guybrush was fine because everything from FFVII to that point was getting anti-voted to hell and back against fodder.

Of course, there's a huge gap between letting someone get a mighty 23% on you and letting a weakling break 40%.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

A small but fervently dedicated fanbase makes a character look great with low votals.

Yes, but you're also assuming for some reason that when vote totals decrease, a disproportionately larger amount of fans of less popular games stick around than do the popular ones.

Doesn't make sense. Phoenix beats Marth whether the vote totals are 30,000 or 100,000.

No, the assumption is that the 'core demographic' of the site, the guys that have been here for a long time and stuck around even as the kids stopped coming, favors certain characters more than others because they hit certain notes better. Phoenix is one of those characters, and it only seems reasonable that Marth would gain more from a vastly expanded casual vote compared to a votepool of crotchety old GameFAQS users. I mean, it's just common sense - which games did people play more, Melee and Brawl, or the Ace Attorney series?

I'm not even really sure if even SSB fans care much for Marth, although I guess him being high-tier in both Melee and Brawl helps.

On the other hand, Phoenix Wright just feels like a character tailor-made to get votes from people who haven't played his games.
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Meh, too much Mewtwo vs Vincent talk. Vincent beats no doubt, Mewtwo puts up a respectable fight of 40-60 according to me as of now.
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No, but what do you want me to do post two paragraphs of disclaimers before I use the raw stats in front of me? It is what it is, obviously you have to take things with some grain of salt but yeah.
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FranzyvonKarma posted...

Quick if Max Payne 2013 = Max Payne whatever year he faced Gordon, what is Guybrush expected to get on that year's Gordon.

Guybrush wins with like 54-55% against Gordon.
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spooky96 posted...

Meh, too much Mewtwo vs Vincent talk. Vincent beats no doubt, Mewtwo puts up a respectable fight of 40-60 according to me as of now.

You are so in the wrong topic if you don't like pointless discussion.
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In other news Wrex has slowed down quite a bit
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KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.
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Chris, it's been well over a week. In case you've forgotten, you're free to change that sig. May I interest you in some wonderful Chen Kenichi or Fedor Emelianenko pics?
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Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

Quick if Max Payne 2013 = Max Payne whatever year he faced Gordon, what is Guybrush expected to get on that year's Gordon.

Guybrush wins with like 54-55% against Gordon.

See guys get off your topic and look at this piece of beauty.

Ok now if KOS-MOS 2013 = KOS-MOS....2004, what is whoever beat KOS-MOS expected to get on Vincent?

I will derail this topic so much if I have to.
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~War~

LeonhartFour posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

No, the assumption is that the 'core demographic' of the site, the guys that have been here for a long time and stuck around even as the kids stopped coming, favors certain characters more than others because they hit certain notes better.

There is no basis for this whatsoever. It's just been a general assumption we've always held that cult characters do better with lower vote totals, but it doesn't really ever hold up.

Call it extrapolation from board contests. As the sample size decreases, the chance of wonky results occurring grows higher and higher. It's not that cult characters do better with low votals, it's that low votals allow for anomalies.

superange128 posted...

In other news Wrex has slowed down quite a bit

I saw it, but I'm saving the hype for when Cecil gets three cuts in a row. Trends and all that!

The wonkiest result we ever got was in the most popular poll in this site's history!
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FranzyvonKarma posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

Quick if Max Payne 2013 = Max Payne whatever year he faced Gordon, what is Guybrush expected to get on that year's Gordon.

Guybrush wins with like 54-55% against Gordon.

See guys get off your topic and look at this piece of beauty.

Ok now if KOS-MOS 2013 = KOS-MOS....2004, what is whoever beat KOS-MOS expected to get on Vincent?

I will derail this topic so much if I have to.

Ryu would narrowly beat Vincent, at a glance.
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So did I miss TRE's prediction rate post for the last matches, or has he not been doing them anymore?
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FranzyvonKarma posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

Quick if Max Payne 2013 = Max Payne whatever year he faced Gordon, what is Guybrush expected to get on that year's Gordon.

Guybrush wins with like 54-55% against Gordon.

See guys get off your topic and look at this piece of beauty.

Ok now if KOS-MOS 2013 = KOS-MOS....2004, what is whoever beat KOS-MOS expected to get on Vincent?

I will derail this topic so much if I have to.

Ryu gets 53% on Vincent.
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LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.
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~War~

The Owner of FF9 posted...

So did I miss TRE's prediction rate post for the last matches, or has he not been doing them anymore?

He's not going to be around for a few days, but he'll get caught up when he comes back.
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That was the year Ryu put up 45% on Sonic, too. Don't knock KOS-MOS too badly, guys!
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Ryu > Vincent would be a pretty fantastic result. Good going, KOS-MOS.
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~War~

Eh, it's a bad performance no matter how you slice it, but FFVII always looks better against better competition, so I'm not really going to fret about it until Mewtwo actually does the deed.
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FranzyvonKarma posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.

Female bracket results were all preposterous. I wouldn't put much stock into them.

Vincent v KOS-MOS is still bad, mind you, but Tifa made The Boss look like bad fodder in 2006.
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Karma Hunter posted...

That was the year Ryu put up 45% on Sonic, too. Don't knock KOS-MOS too badly, guys!

Ryu was going 50/50 with Sonic for a while early on, too! Sonic's lead never broke 100 until 3 hours into the poll!

It's kind of weird that this is the first real struggle a Noble Niner ever had with a non-Noble Niner and nobody remembers it because Sonic ended up winning relatively easily.
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MegatokyoEd posted...

kinsho3 posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Today's match is also casting a dark shadow over the supposed old Square boost.

I don't necessarily think it does. We never had a clean read on Cecil anyway up until this match. On top of that, Wrex is an unknown quantity. Nobody here is entirely sure how strong Wrex is relative to other characters like Red or Knuckles.

And I'm still unsold on this perceived Old Square boost. I think the boost has done wonders for the likes of Terra, Kefka, Cecil, and maybe even Kain. I'm not sure if other characters would do well. We saw Locke getting his clock cleaned by the likes of Ness. We saw Celes beat down Seifer, yes, but Seifer himself is an unknown quantity.

We have no idea how Locke would have performed prior so we can't speak on that.

And Celes owning Seifer has nothing to do with her performance looking so good. It's that she did better on Knuckles with another Square character in the poll than she did on The Boss.

Regardless, Locke getting embarrassed by the likes of Ness doesn't really say any good things. If you think 2010 X-stats still carry weight, Locke would be a little bit above Geno, assuming there was no SFF between Geno and Ness.

Your second point is certainly valid. I forgot just how bad of a performance Celes put up against The Boss ages ago. I guess Celes did see a decent boost.
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Drop it to the floor...

Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.

Female bracket results were all preposterous. I wouldn't put much stock into them.

Vincent v KOS-MOS is still bad, mind you, but Tifa made The Boss look like bad fodder in 2006.

I know they were all absurd, but still, if anything the only craziness involving Aerith was that she did so poorly.
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~War~

Of all established series, only MGS, Pokemon and Old Square have looked good so far. Pretty pleased with how the trends are shaping thus far.
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FranzyvonKarma posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.

Female bracket results were all preposterous. I wouldn't put much stock into them.

Vincent v KOS-MOS is still bad, mind you, but Tifa made The Boss look like bad fodder in 2006.

I know they were all absurd, but still, if anything the only craziness involving Aerith was that she did so poorly.

She redeemed herself a bit, relatively. You can't really take underperformances like that at face value, or we'd still be using Samus/Tifa and Samus/Zelda as evidence of anything. The match is essentially meaningless, and Vincent/KOS-MOS might end up being meaningless too.

Or not. It's speculation.
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Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

FranzyvonKarma posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.

Female bracket results were all preposterous. I wouldn't put much stock into them.

Vincent v KOS-MOS is still bad, mind you, but Tifa made The Boss look like bad fodder in 2006.

I know they were all absurd, but still, if anything the only craziness involving Aerith was that she did so poorly.

She redeemed herself a bit, relatively. You can't really take underperformances like that at face value, or we'd still be using Samus/Tifa and Samus/Zelda as evidence of anything. The match is essentially meaningless, and Vincent/KOS-MOS might end up being meaningless too.

Or not. It's speculation.

I've been around here long enough to know the only way to react to something is to overreact!

Aerith and Yuna 2006 were legit!
Zack = Auron!
Kefka > Auron!
Mega Man/Snake is a 50/50 match again (BEFORE Smash 4, so now Mega Man > Snake is a lock!)
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~War~

I wanted to believe 2006 Yuna was legit so hard.

Yuna > Zack in spirit
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2006 Yuna was legit, she just got GAME FUELED so hard, and by the time 2010 came around the Final Fantasy VII drop killed her too, obviously.
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~War~

The Final Fantasy VII drop that applied to Yuna but not Zack for some reason
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The FFVII drop was masked because Zack rSFF'd Yuna and we didn't realize it...!
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See, you guys get it!
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~War~

I log in,vote for Cecil,check the results and I am suprised.I thought Pit was the favorite,Cecil behind by a bit and Wrex having no change.But Wrex is winning!Nice.I have Pit in my bracket but I hope Wrex does it.
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He's really going to lose.

Man. I can't see Wrex > Knuckles, so something weird must be going on
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People couldn't see Wrex > Cecil & Pit, either!

We haven't had a good read on Knuckles in nearly a decade. He's probably weaker.
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Plenty of people saw this as possible.
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I thought Wrex had a better shot at winning this than Pit did. My initial gut reaction was Wrex, and thankfully I forgot to switch to Cecil before lockdown. I just kept talking myself out of Wrex winning because he's a primarily ME1-centric character, but the ME fanbase is showing its knowledge of the game and the series in general by supporting Uncle Urdnot!
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To continue touching on it, Knuckles let Cecil get 48% in a day match 2010. He was never even in the match against a SFFed Zelda in 2008. He was never in contention against Yoshi and nearly choked the match away against Rikku in 2007. He hasn't done anything of note since he beat Magus (which doesn't look good today) and got bandwagoned into a decent performance on Squall in 2005.

Sad days, I like Knux.
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Yeah, Knux definitely isn't as strong as he used to be. It's too bad Sega is too determined to let him be relegated to a background character and tries to push Shadow instead.
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I considered this plausible (because Pit is a Nintendo character and FFIV is most popular on the SNES) but like hell I was going to take the reasonable upset that wasn't Cecil.

It'd be like if Vincent were in Missingno's spot and Leon took Vincent to get out of this division!
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~War~

From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 8/13/2013 3:42:04 PM | #419

LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.

man even Link couldn't get 70% on X so if Aeris is doing that Link better watch out!
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Damn you Pit, stay below 45% on Wrex for the sake of stupid upset chances next round
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Karma Hunter posted...

To continue touching on it, Knuckles let Cecil get 48% in a day match 2010. He was never even in the match against a SFFed Zelda in 2008. He was never in contention against Yoshi and nearly choked the match away against Rikku in 2007. He hasn't done anything of note since he beat Magus (which doesn't look good today) and got bandwagoned into a decent performance on Squall in 2005.

Sad days, I like Knux.

He only had one match before this contest since Squall that didn't have Sonic or Nintendo overlap. Your point begins and ends with a disappointing win over Cecil. If we're going to say Knuckles overperformed against Squall we could just as easily say Cecil overperformed against Knuckles.
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__Smurf__ posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

To continue touching on it, Knuckles let Cecil get 48% in a day match 2010. He was never even in the match against a SFFed Zelda in 2008. He was never in contention against Yoshi and nearly choked the match away against Rikku in 2007. He hasn't done anything of note since he beat Magus (which doesn't look good today) and got bandwagoned into a decent performance on Squall in 2005.

Sad days, I like Knux.

He only had one match before this contest since Squall that didn't have Sonic or Nintendo overlap. Your point begins and ends with a disappointing win over Cecil. If we're going to say Knuckles overperformed against Squall we could just as easily say Cecil overperformed against Knuckles.

No, Smurf, you are wrong.
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It's possible Cecil overperformed on Knuckles, but Knuckles definitely overperformed on Squall. You can blame nearly losing to Rikku by Yoshi being in the poll, but it's not like Rikku was completely unhindered herself! Say what you want about Vaan, but he should have had SOME effect on her.
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Xuxon posted...

From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 8/13/2013 3:42:04 PM | #419

LeonhartFour posted...

KOS-MOS has never been that weak! She did just as well on Samus as Frog and Rikku did! She got nearly 40% on Aerith back in 2006 as well.

Granted, she's probably not worth as much now as she used to be, but KOS-MOS has always been relatively decent.

Honestly, the whole '40% on Aerith' is probably the most damning thing for FFVII. Vincent has been (potentially) reduced to Aerith levels, and it's not like we're going 'oh he got 70% on X and Aerith got 70% on X so Vincent = Aerith'. It's a pretty poor Aerith performance that still outdid Vincent.

man even Link couldn't get 70% on X so if Aeris is doing that Link better watch out!

Aeris>Link hype /intentionallymisreadingposts

Glorious Pit falling back down, let's get him under 44% or even 43% on Wrex by the end of this

What a great match. Thank you based GoodTasteFAQs
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