GameFAQs Contests

charmander6000 posted...

These matches have not been 'roughly as expected,' or the bracket favoritism would reflect that. Doing well is all relative - remember when we thought Magus did great on Luca Blight?

Turned out it was horrific.

But it's true, outside of new characters (which are unreliable) the only Nintendo characters to have actually performed from your list is Marth and Missingno. Even then Phoenix Wright being stronger was expected and before that they were expected to have roughly the same strength.

You can turn that right around on FF7. Barret is cited as huge evidence of FF7's decline, but he's a completely new and untested character. About the only match with an existing they've had that is evidence of any decline is Vincent's, and we haven't seen KOS-MOS in a long while.

People are jumping on one theory and not the other. They might both be wrong, but that's not my issue.
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Sephiroth didn't look like his usual self either.

And as much as I want to say otherwise Aerith should have gotten 60% in her match considering the fodder she faced.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Also, to return to Nintendo's performances for a second, because I really feel this hasn't gotten enough attention (especially since FF7 has gotten more attention!):

- Marth completely rolls over and dies against Phoenix Wright despite having strong upset support, can't even break 45%

Agreed. Regardless of a boost, an easy loss to Phoenix Wright is not good.

- Falcon impresses many by hanging tough with Alucard and showing he probably is stronger 1v1 in a 24 hour match (not me, though! I had him winning with like 53% argh)

I'd hold Falcon losing in the 11th hour against Nintendo too.

- N comes close to getting doubled by Bayonetta in a match where a quarter of the board had him winning (N had more support than Captain Falcon disgusting)

Hold this against characters from post-2010 games, not against Nintendo in general!

- Ike nearly chokes a match away to Protoman, underperforming significantly relative to board expectations

Actually it was about even going by stat expectations, though yeah Ike almost losing could be another example of SSB-reliant Nintendo underperforming or losing.

- Ridley bombs against Zidane even though he's well above him in last contest's stats

This is basically Mario vs. Samus all over again - does Ridley over Zidane even make sense without the x-stats?

- Groose ridiculously bombs in a match where he was heavily favored to win, coming in third against Yoshimitus and Lu Bu

Again, problem with post-2010 characters, not Nintendo in general!

- Game and Watch lets Lee Everett come very close to him in a day match after we've seen new characters bomb left and right. In his defense, this was the bracket favorite (not to me though, again! Like Falcon, G&W majorly disappointed me :()

Yeah, that sucked. The poor performance of SSB characters all throughout the contest was the reason I was arguing for Mr. Game & Watch to even bomb and end up in third. In the end it turned out that being from recent games was even more of a killer, but not by a whole lot.

- Tom Nook looks like he'd have lost a 24 hour match to Pyramid Head despite new games and the biggest pic advantage of the contest so far.

Personally I expected Pyramid Head to win, but yeah almost losing to him is not good.

- Missingno nearly blows the match to Tidus when he was projected to double him and expected to blow him out at the least by 90% of the board

Hold this against joke characters, not Nintendo in general.

- Pit, having the majority of the brackets, is getting squashed by Cecil and wrexed by Wrex

Yeah Pit sucks.

If you're gonna call out FF7, look at what Nintendo is doing!

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Vincent, Sephiroth and Zack all looked pretty bad
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 57/70 Today's Picks: Red and Cecil

Achromatic posted...

Sephiroth didn't look like his usual self either.

And as much as I want to say otherwise Aerith should have gotten 60% in her match considering the fodder she faced.

Sephiroth performed almost exactly as he was expected to on Midna. Hero and Rinoa are completely untested.
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Sephiroth looked fine. Midna and Little Mac are not bad characters in terms of strength.
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I don't get why Marth losing to Phoenix cleanly is such a big indictment against Nintendo. Phoenix not only had hype for a new game coming, he'd received exposure to a fanbase that had little to do with his core group of fans when UMvC3 hit the shelves. Of course he boosted!

Oh right I guess you have Zack to point to, though we have no idea where Kefka is right now.

There's a lot of explanations on BOTH sides. This treatment of "FF7 sucks" as a fact and not giving Nintendo the slightest doubt is irritating.
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Well that is because FF7 has mostly sucked while Nintendo is a whole company, varied to the point of branding it being stupid as ****.
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Achromatic posted...

Well that is because FF7 has mostly sucked while Nintendo is a whole company, varied to the point of branding it being stupid as ****.

That's not how it works in contests, though. When the Nintendo Boost hit, every Nintendo character benefited. It is very possible for Nintendo to have variance as an entity.
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Today's match is also casting a dark shadow over the supposed old Square boost.

Making Kirby, Kefka, and Knuckles all look worse going into next round. However, it really only matters for Kefka. It would really be something, however, to see Kefka choke against Altair after beating someone who thrashed Altair in the past, but them's the breaks.

IIRC Kefka is worth 40% on Altair according to 2008. Dissidia boost or whatever, that's quite some ground to make up, though then again Kefka did just beat Zack, who I think doubled Altair in 2008.

Now just you watch, LARA FREAKING CROFT will rise up and slay the opposition.
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I wonder if Cecil has more of a chance as the match goes on. I mean on the one hand Wrex is CRUSHING in Europe but on the other hand Wrex is winning in the US too. Cecil's got Canada I guess?
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Am I the only one to think everyone here is overreacting to Round 1 here? Nintendo and Square looked all right to me. Vincent's performance is cause for concern, sure. I'm not sure if that extends over to the rest of the crew from FF VII, let alone the rest of the Final Fantasy pack.

If anything, the only definite trend that we'd been able to gleam from all these first-round matches is that new characters stink.
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Drop it to the floor...

I still want to see how Vincent performs in round 2 before really speaking on his performance.

Zack is easily the biggest indicator but I don't know. Even though he went out in 2010 and backed up his performance, there always seemed to be something fraud-like about him.
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Lopen posted...

I wonder if Cecil has more of a chance as the match goes on. I mean on the one hand Wrex is CRUSHING in Europe but on the other hand Wrex is winning in the US too. Cecil's got Canada I guess?

It's possible, but we're only three hours in and he's letting this get too out of hand. He's not even gonna have 48% on Wrex soon.
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Okay apparently Kefka is ahead of Altair in the 2008 stats, which makes no sense whatsoever.

Isn't Altair about equal to Duke Nukem? Didn't Duke 55-45 Kefka or something in Round 1? So how?
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When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.
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Poor Cecil, he's never gonna get out of Round 1 is he?

Also holy hell Wrex you make me proud.

Also damnit Pit, why you suck so bad here
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Okay apparently Kefka is ahead of Altair in the 2008 stats, which makes no sense whatsoever.

Isn't Altair about equal to Duke Nukem? Didn't Duke 55-45 Kefka or something in Round 1? So how?

Learn to think for yourself.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Achromatic posted...

Well that is because FF7 has mostly sucked while Nintendo is a whole company, varied to the point of branding it being stupid as ****.

That's not how it works in contests, though. When the Nintendo Boost hit, every Nintendo character benefited. It is very possible for Nintendo to have variance as an entity.

Did they? I recall it was Zelda benefitting, Mario benefitting, and a couple other series', but not all of them.

On the other hand the 2008 stats have Zack doubling Kefka (lol), which sounds about right going off of Altair's Round 3 match. I guess because Altair did worse against Duke in Round 3 than Kefka did in Round 1, Kefka finished higher? I dunno.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Today's match is also casting a dark shadow over the supposed old Square boost.

I don't necessarily think it does. We never had a clean read on Cecil anyway up until this match. On top of that, Wrex is an unknown quantity. Nobody here is entirely sure how strong Wrex is relative to other characters like Red or Knuckles.

And I'm still unsold on this perceived Old Square boost. I think the boost has done wonders for the likes of Terra, Kefka, Cecil, and maybe even Kain. I'm not sure if other characters would do well. We saw Locke getting his clock cleaned by the likes of Ness. We saw Celes beat down Seifer, yes, but Seifer himself is an unknown quantity.
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Drop it to the floor...

Sephiroth did not look good, even ignoring LFF he's expect to fail to break 59% on a Sora that easily lost to Bowser.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 57/70 Today's Picks: Red and Cecil

Losing to a side character from freaking Mass Effect doesn't sound good.

In terms of contest strength that is. All these Mass Effect guys get me hyped to actually play those games at some point.
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Achromatic posted...

When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.

All of this logic can be applied to FF7. If Phoenix benefits from reduced vote totals, why not KOS-MOS? I had Kefka winning his match, people putting Zack over him were just suckered by bad logic.

There's no appreciable difference in any of this outside of pure, unadulterated bias.
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Kain shouldve been able to beat SSF'd Raiden. That was just bad
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kinsho3 posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Today's match is also casting a dark shadow over the supposed old Square boost.

I don't necessarily think it does. We never had a clean read on Cecil anyway up until this match. On top of that, Wrex is an unknown quantity. Nobody here is entirely sure how strong Wrex is relative to other characters like Red or Knuckles.

And I'm still unsold on this perceived Old Square boost. I think the boost has done wonders for the likes of Terra, Kefka, Cecil, and maybe even Kain. I'm not sure if other characters would do well. We saw Locke getting his clock cleaned by the likes of Ness. We saw Celes beat down Seifer, yes, but Seifer himself is an unknown quantity.

More like a known quantity of suck. We knew he wasn't worth jack when he pushed Squal to the point of almost losing against Kingdom Hearts.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Did they? I recall it was Zelda benefitting, Mario benefitting, and a couple other series', but not all of them.

Pokemon benefited probably more than anyone. We just didn't see it until 2007 because there were literally no Pokemon in the contest in 2005 and 2006 except for Nidoran F. Kirby definitely benefited from it as well.
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kinsho3 posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Today's match is also casting a dark shadow over the supposed old Square boost.

I don't necessarily think it does. We never had a clean read on Cecil anyway up until this match. On top of that, Wrex is an unknown quantity. Nobody here is entirely sure how strong Wrex is relative to other characters like Red or Knuckles.

And I'm still unsold on this perceived Old Square boost. I think the boost has done wonders for the likes of Terra, Kefka, Cecil, and maybe even Kain. I'm not sure if other characters would do well. We saw Locke getting his clock cleaned by the likes of Ness. We saw Celes beat down Seifer, yes, but Seifer himself is an unknown quantity.

We have no idea how Locke would have performed prior so we can't speak on that.

And Celes owning Seifer has nothing to do with her performance looking so good. It's that she did better on Knuckles with another Square character in the poll than she did on The Boss.
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Shoenin_Kakashi posted...

Kain shouldve been able to beat SSF'd Raiden. That was just bad

Kain, uh, never faced SFFed Raiden. The match was Master Chief/Raiden/Kain/Layton. Kain did not advance.

If he had, Big Boss would have won the next match.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Achromatic posted...

When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.

All of this logic can be applied to FF7. If Phoenix benefits from reduced vote totals, why not KOS-MOS? I had Kefka winning his match, people putting Zack over him were just suckered by bad logic.

There's no appreciable difference in any of this outside of pure, unadulterated bias.

It's fair though. The answer is really obvious when you look at the board - Phoenix is literally our mascot, so since our adherence to him is probably like 80+%, the board vote has a much more significant statistical impact in a 30k vote match than a 100k votefest. Apply that to a few other sections of the site and it's easy to see why Phoenix would benefit from lower votals. Cult characters perform better when all the votes they have to use to win are those of their cult fanbases.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Achromatic posted...

When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.

All of this logic can be applied to FF7. If Phoenix benefits from reduced vote totals, why not KOS-MOS? I had Kefka winning his match, people putting Zack over him were just suckered by bad logic.

There's no appreciable difference in any of this outside of pure, unadulterated bias.

It's fair though. The answer is really obvious when you look at the board - Phoenix is literally our mascot, so since our adherence to him is probably like 80+%, the board vote has a much more significant statistical impact in a 30k vote match than a 100k votefest. Apply that to a few other sections of the site and it's easy to see why Phoenix would benefit from lower votals. Cult characters perform better when all the votes they have to use to win are those of their cult fanbases.

...and KOS-MOS isn't a cult fan favorite?
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Karma Hunter posted...

Shoenin_Kakashi posted...

Kain shouldve been able to beat SSF'd Raiden. That was just bad

Kain, uh, never faced SFFed Raiden. The match was Master Chief/Raiden/Kain/Layton. Kain did not advance.

If he had, Big Boss would have won the next match.

robot looking guy sff
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The board vote is statistically insignificant regardless of the vote total size. Phoenix was dominating board votes back in 2006-2008 when we were regularly hitting 100,000 votes with ease, too.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Achromatic posted...

When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.

All of this logic can be applied to FF7. If Phoenix benefits from reduced vote totals, why not KOS-MOS? I had Kefka winning his match, people putting Zack over him were just suckered by bad logic.

There's no appreciable difference in any of this outside of pure, unadulterated bias.

No, it really can't. You are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Vincent has been, up until this year, rock solid as a near elite. Rock. Solid. We'll have to see how he performs next round but his round 1 doesn't look good for him at all. And as much as you say "unproven" about Rinoa and Hero, Aerith got less on Hero directly than she did on Sora in 2003. I love my Hero, but that's bad for her.

But whatever, lead your crusade. I am just going to stop talking to you since you are obviously full of it lol.
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So it's safe to say that everyone sucks this year and that only Snake and Mario has looked good judging by this argument I am loosely caring about.

On the other hand, the 2010 stats have Kefka getting 48% on Zack, making Zack perfectly within striking distance if you assume an FFVII deboost, which is why I initially picked Kefka in my stupid bracket!

(heck, I think Wrex was my gut pick here as well, though that was back when I was expecting current-gen characters to do well)

Kefka gets 57% on Altair according to the 2010 stats, and considering how Kefka will stand out in the match pic against two more realistic characters from current-gen games, the stats say that a Kefka victory is safe. Though Kefka and Altair have always loved to screw with us, so who knows.

And then there's LARA FREAKING CROFT waiting there to...screw with us some more. Wasn't her last contest appearance...almost losing to pre-RE5 Albert Wesker lol, forget it. I thought Lara was some character who at least had some history of impressing, turns out she doesn't.

It's worth noting that Altair actually did better against Ratchet than the 2010 stats suggest, although Ratchet has reason to decline in strength thanks to his newer games not being all that well-liked vs. him coming off of A Crack in Time (which I'm told vies for best of the series among fans) in 2010.
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Achromatic posted...

No, it really can't. You are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Vincent has been, up until this year, rock solid as a near elite. Rock. Solid.

Vincent took a LOT of flack for his performance on Guybrush last year because of how bad it made him look compared to how Guybrush normally performs.

This is not new.
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LeonhartFour posted...

The board vote is statistically insignificant regardless of the vote total size. Phoenix was dominating board votes back in 2006-2008 when we were regularly hitting 100,000 votes with ease, too.

Yes, but 100 votes in a 100k vote poll are meaningless. 100 votes in a 25k vote poll matter four times as much, is what I'm saying. A small but fervently dedicated fanbase makes a character look great with low votals.

Karma Hunter posted...

...and KOS-MOS isn't a cult fan favorite?

To the level of Phoenix Wright? On GameFAQS? Nnnnnnnnnah. Compare the reactions to KOS-MOS appearing in Project X Zone or any other crossover game to the humongous pop when Phoenix had his debut trailer for UMvC3.

Last year? Even Leon's doing it now!

Every character sucks now.
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~War~

KanzarisKelshen posted...

A small but fervently dedicated fanbase makes a character look great with low votals.

Yes, but you're also assuming for some reason that when vote totals decrease, a disproportionately larger amount of fans of less popular games stick around than do the popular ones.

Doesn't make sense. Phoenix beats Marth whether the vote totals are 30,000 or 100,000.
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Achromatic posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Achromatic posted...

When the nintendo boost hit we had roughly 1/4th of the current bracket size and there was about 14 total nintendo characters. Now there's like a billion. You say Marth performed badly, I say his decline is natural and Phoenix benefits from a site with less votes. Like, there isn't some random epidemic of Nintendo sucking is the problem. Like fodder is being fodder (hi groose) or Pit is performing exactly as he should and people just got suckered in by their own bad logic.

All of this logic can be applied to FF7. If Phoenix benefits from reduced vote totals, why not KOS-MOS? I had Kefka winning his match, people putting Zack over him were just suckered by bad logic.

There's no appreciable difference in any of this outside of pure, unadulterated bias.

No, it really can't. You are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Vincent has been, up until this year, rock solid as a near elite. Rock. Solid. We'll have to see how he performs next round but his round 1 doesn't look good for him at all. And as much as you say "unproven" about Rinoa and Hero, Aerith got less on Hero directly than she did on Sora in 2003. I love my Hero, but that's bad for her.

But whatever, lead your crusade. I am just going to stop talking to you since you are obviously full of it lol.

Comparing Aeris/Sora 2k3 to Aeris/Rinoa/Hero is ludicrous. Aeris SFFed the bajeezus out of Sora. A *lot* of people could get more on Aeris indirectly, that's why Hayabusa > Sora was the huge board consensus in 2004. Hero having Rinoa hold Aeris back just added to that.

Vincent has had his share of underperformances, too. Dude was losing to Bidoof for a good while. Guybrush made him look bad. Falco and GlaDOS made him look awful.

I'm not saying the KOS-MOS underperformance isn't bad in spite of that, it's the single biggest evidence toward FF7 decline. But Nintendo's got its underperformances too.
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FranzyvonKarma posted...

Last year? Even Leon's doing it now!

Every character sucks now.

I've been doing it the entire contest! I just usually catch myself before I post!
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LeonhartFour posted...

Achromatic posted...

No, it really can't. You are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Vincent has been, up until this year, rock solid as a near elite. Rock. Solid.

Vincent took a LOT of flack for his performance on Guybrush last year because of how bad it made him look compared to how Guybrush normally performs.

This is not new.

Not from this guy. Over 77% followed by a suitable SFF fest against Sephiroth looks good to me! Also Guybrush is the max payne killer, better watch out..!
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Karma Hunter posted...

Shoenin_Kakashi posted...

Kain shouldve been able to beat SSF'd Raiden. That was just bad

Kain, uh, never faced SFFed Raiden. The match was Master Chief/Raiden/Kain/Layton. Kain did not advance.

If he had, Big Boss would have won the next match.

This reminds me:

Petition for a Master Chief vs. Raiden re-match next contest! I'm sure Chief would find a way to pull off another legendary choke there, and it would be the biggest one of them all.
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Quick if Max Payne 2013 = Max Payne whatever year he faced Gordon, what is Guybrush expected to get on that year's Gordon.
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~War~

LeonhartFour posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

A small but fervently dedicated fanbase makes a character look great with low votals.

Yes, but you're also assuming for some reason that when vote totals decrease, a disproportionately larger amount of fans of less popular games stick around than do the popular ones.

Doesn't make sense. Phoenix beats Marth whether the vote totals are 30,000 or 100,000.

No, the assumption is that the 'core demographic' of the site, the guys that have been here for a long time and stuck around even as the kids stopped coming, favors certain characters more than others because they hit certain notes better. Phoenix is one of those characters, and it only seems reasonable that Marth would gain more from a vastly expanded casual vote compared to a votepool of crotchety old GameFAQS users. I mean, it's just common sense - which games did people play more, Melee and Brawl, or the Ace Attorney series?

Achromatic posted...

Not from this guy. Over 77% followed by a suitable SFF fest against Sephiroth looks good to me! Also Guybrush is the max payne killer, better watch out..!

Yes, but your personal assessment of things compared to the board's general reaction (which is what we're talking about) is irrelevant. I disagree with what the board thinks a lot of times!
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Achromatic posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Achromatic posted...

No, it really can't. You are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Vincent has been, up until this year, rock solid as a near elite. Rock. Solid.

Vincent took a LOT of flack for his performance on Guybrush last year because of how bad it made him look compared to how Guybrush normally performs.

This is not new.

Not from this guy. Over 77% followed by a suitable SFF fest against Sephiroth looks good to me! Also Guybrush is the max payne killer, better watch out..!

At the time, 75-80% was pretty much the best a character could possibly hope for in a non-SFF blowout situation. Vincent failing to break 60% on a character who was fodder last we saw her and who has gotten pretty much nothing since then is baaaaaaaaaad news.
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