Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1108

#451 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2013 1:22:54 PM | message detail
And Pit responds by winning an update outright...!
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#452 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:23:33 PM | message detail
terrible BadTasteFAQs update
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#453 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/13/2013 1:24:31 PM | message detail
Honestly, because of Smash 4 and with this bracket setup (Mega Man/Mario/Samus), I could potentially see Mega Man reaching the finals, where SFF keeps him down to 3rd below Cloud/Snake.

By the way, has anyone considered that we might see some weird rSFF in the final? For example, Link SFFs Mario pretty easily, as we've seen time and again. But could the Mario voters who side with Link over him potentially vote Mario anyway to try and keep Mario in second?
#454 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/13/2013 1:26:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
That was the year Ryu put up 45% on Sonic, too. Don't knock KOS-MOS too badly, guys!


Ryu was going 50/50 with Sonic for a while early on, too! Sonic's lead never broke 100 until 3 hours into the poll!

It's kind of weird that this is the first real struggle a Noble Niner ever had with a non-Noble Niner and nobody remembers it because Sonic ended up winning relatively easily.


Another reason why no one remembers it could be because it was in what's apparently supposed to be the worst character battle. So people were probably in a "get this the heck over with" mood.
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#455 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:26:28 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Honestly, because of Smash 4 and with this bracket setup (Mega Man/Mario/Samus), I could potentially see Mega Man reaching the finals, where SFF keeps him down to 3rd below Cloud/Snake.

By the way, has anyone considered that we might see some weird rSFF in the final? For example, Link SFFs Mario pretty easily, as we've seen time and again. But could the Mario voters who side with Link over him potentially vote Mario anyway to try and keep Mario in second?


I really hope so
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#456 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/13/2013 1:26:30 PM | message detail
Personally Mario is going to be taking my vote away from Snake/Cloud/HORSE.

Clearly this proves Mario is going to LFF Snake and Cloud so Link wins by even more than normal.
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#457 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:28:13 PM | message detail
Haven't we already seen Mario give Link a scare in Link/Seph/Mario/Vincent anyway
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#458 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/13/2013 1:29:32 PM | message detail
Remember when people thought Mario was going to get last there?

lol
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#459 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/13/2013 1:30:34 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The Owner of FF9 posted...
So did I miss TRE's prediction rate post for the last matches, or has he not been doing them anymore?


He's not going to be around for a few days, but he'll get caught up when he comes back.


Oh ok. Because I can't WAIT to see the stats for this match.
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#460 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/13/2013 1:31:42 PM | message detail
We've had three matches so far where the pic made it look like two were locked in a duel while the third was just off doing his own thing. In two of them, the third character won (assuming Cecil doesn't pull off any shenanigans here).

I guess you should have been looking at your dueling opponents instead of begging for us to get you out, Master Chief! Also Kefka and Wrex stood out in their match pics while Chief didn't to the same extent - I'd argue that Chief and Yuna both equally stood out, and when two stand out, no one stands out.

Pre-contest, I thought that Yuna could potentially skirt by on looking like some dainty princess character vs. two action guys. That's not exactly what happened, but she did end up standing out in the pic from a color perspective at least!
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#461 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:31:56 PM | message detail
That doesn't look good for Link, honestly! Link 2007 >> Link 2013, Mario refused to fold despite having every reason to, and Seph got closer than he should have despite Vincent being in the poll.

If I had any faith Mario was gonna stand up like that to Link this year I'd be crowing like you wouldn't believe~
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#462 | Xuxon | Posted 8/13/2013 1:35:11 PM | message detail
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 8/13/2013 4:29:32 PM | #458
Remember when people thought Mario was going to get last there?

lol

man i had one the lowest Mario predictions in that match and even i had Vincent well behind him
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#463 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/13/2013 1:38:13 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
That doesn't look good for Link, honestly! Link 2007 >> Link 2013, Mario refused to fold despite having every reason to, and Seph got closer than he should have despite Vincent being in the poll.

If I had any faith Mario was gonna stand up like that to Link this year I'd be crowing like you wouldn't believe~


What do you mean Mario refused to fold? He got well under 40%.
#464 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:38:41 PM | message detail
In all honesty I'm expecting something like what happened in the Battle Royale for the Finals. Cloud was perceived as a mortal threat to Link by his voters and Link just harvested Mario's soul for every last vote he could in defense. Mario got 24% on Link in the BR, and I expect a result more in line with that for this year's finals.
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#465 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:39:29 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
That doesn't look good for Link, honestly! Link 2007 >> Link 2013, Mario refused to fold despite having every reason to, and Seph got closer than he should have despite Vincent being in the poll.

If I had any faith Mario was gonna stand up like that to Link this year I'd be crowing like you wouldn't believe~


What do you mean Mario refused to fold? He got well under 40%.


Read my post above. SFF is usually more extreme in multiway setups like that. The Battle Royale, that's folding.
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#466 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2013 1:42:22 PM | message detail
Oh right, trend chart from the night match:

Time | Red | Corvo | Sissel | Votes
0:05 | 72.31% | 14.88% | 12.81% | 242
1:00 | 73.00% | 16.69% | 10.31% | 4852
2:00 | 71.37% | 18.90% | 9.73% | 2847
3:00 | 72.34% | 18.17% | 9.49% | 2003
4:00 | 70.16% | 20.26% | 9.58% | 1639
5:00 | 67.93% | 21.31% | 10.76% | 1403
6:00 | 68.81% | 20.41% | 10.78% | 1308
7:00 | 67.00% | 21.66% | 11.33% | 1394
8:00 | 69.59% | 20.55% | 9.85% | 1766
9:00 | 68.77% | 22.40% | 8.83% | 1790
10:00 | 71.52% | 19.46% | 9.02% | 1973
11:00 | 70.75% | 20.80% | 8.45% | 2048
12:00 | 71.56% | 19.49% | 8.95% | 1888

This match went pretty much how you'd expect. Red starts off strong, drops a bit overnight, and rises back up late. Corvo does relatively well overnight. Sissel manages a few 10%+ hours in the dead zone as well.

X-Stats:

Pokemon Trainer Red – 50.00%
Corvo Attano – 21.59%
Sissel – 12.10%

Red's prediction percentage was 84.25%
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#467 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/13/2013 1:46:28 PM | message detail
Smash 4 will boost Mega Man relative to most of the field, but it won't propel him toward Samus/Mario/Link. We already saw Samus beat Mega Man despite a significant picture advantage for MM and Yoshi's presence in the poll. Should he get there, I imagine Mega Man is stuck in third versus Mario and Samus.
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#468 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2013 1:48:22 PM | message detail
I honestly don't expect a huge boost for Mega Man. Certainly nothing like what Snake (or even Sonic briefly in 2007) got. The hype for SSB4 is nothing like what Brawl had.
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#469 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:48:55 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Smash 4 will boost Mega Man relative to most of the field, but it won't propel him toward Samus/Mario/Link. We already saw Samus beat Mega Man despite a significant picture advantage for MM and Yoshi's presence in the poll. Should he get there, I imagine Mega Man is stuck in third versus Mario and Samus.


Hey, he got way closer than a lot of people gave him credit for pre-match! What if the intra-true Nintendo fanbase split is enough for a boosted Mega Man who has hype factor what then

Mega Man is going to lose to Charizard :(
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#470 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/13/2013 1:49:01 PM | message detail
Question
What hour do matches begin in USA time zone...? Is it really 12 am/pm?
#471 | SubDeity | Posted 8/13/2013 1:49:11 PM | message detail
Wouldn't Mega Man be significantly stronger if he could simply not be turbofodder in Europe? Smash 4 could be very helpful in that regard.
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#472 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/13/2013 1:49:24 PM | message detail
Agreed.
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#473 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/13/2013 1:50:50 PM | message detail
SubDeity posted...
Wouldn't Mega Man be significantly stronger if he could simply not be turbofodder in Europe? Smash 4 could be very helpful in that regard.


Smash isn't popular in Europe either though (very little Nintendo is).
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#474 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2013 1:52:00 PM | message detail
SubDeity posted...
Wouldn't Mega Man be significantly stronger if he could simply not be turbofodder in Europe? Smash 4 could be very helpful in that regard.


Europe doesn't like Smash that much either.

I mean, it's better than Mega Man being virtually non-existent in Europe, but still.
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#475 | Darkside_84 | Posted 8/13/2013 1:52:03 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Question
What hour do matches begin in USA time zone...? Is it really 12 am/pm?


12am/12pm EST
#476 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:52:53 PM | message detail
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.

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#477 | Xuxon | Posted 8/13/2013 1:53:14 PM | message detail
From: Nanis23 | Posted: 8/13/2013 4:49:01 PM | #470
Question
What hour do matches begin in USA time zone...? Is it really 12 am/pm?

USA has a bunch of time zones. for the coasts it's 9PM/12AM start for night matches, 9AM/12PM start for day matches.
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#478 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2013 1:54:39 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.


*imagines how Squall/X would go in Europe in a night match*

*explodes*
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#479 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 1:54:41 PM | message detail
HE LOST TO JIGGLYPUFF, WHO VOTES FOR JIGGLYPUFF
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#480 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/13/2013 1:55:06 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.


Why does Mega Man suck so much in the UK?
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#481 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/13/2013 1:58:56 PM | message detail
I had Pit in my bracket and I don't like Wrex.

This is still awesome.
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#482 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/13/2013 1:59:40 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.


Why does Mega Man suck so much in the UK?


I'm from the UK and pretty much didn't even know Megaman existed until I was 13 or something. I'm sure its the same for a lot of other people. You just dont see his games, tv advertisements or just about anything to do with him here.
#483 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/13/2013 2:01:24 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
SubDeity posted...
Wouldn't Mega Man be significantly stronger if he could simply not be turbofodder in Europe? Smash 4 could be very helpful in that regard.


Europe doesn't like Smash that much either.

I mean, it's better than Mega Man being virtually non-existent in Europe, but still.


going from "Mega Man X loses to Jigglypuff in the UK" to "halfway decent" is a nice improvement on its own
granted, given the state of the Wii U I suspect a Smash 4 boost isn't really in the cards
#484 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 2:01:55 PM | message detail
I BET UNITED KINGDOM TRON BONNE WOULD LOSE TO INDONESIA BANJO
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#485 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/13/2013 2:02:20 PM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.


Why does Mega Man suck so much in the UK?


I'm from the UK and pretty much didn't even know Megaman existed until I was 13 or something. I'm sure its the same for a lot of other people. You just dont see his games, tv advertisements or just about anything to do with him here.


Is it Capcom in general or just Mega Man?
Finding it weird that they would just...not release MM games there
#486 | Geemer02 | Posted 8/13/2013 2:04:33 PM | message detail
Well from what I gather, it's not uncommon in the UK to use "mega" to describe something good, e.g. "Metroid Prime is mega". So may in the UK, having a character named Mega Man is like having a character named Great Man in the US?

Or maybe it's because Mega Man's big games are all on Nintendo systems.
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#487 | NotTerrafire | Posted 8/13/2013 2:08:05 PM | message detail
Geemer02 posted...
Well from what I gather, it's not uncommon in the UK to use "mega" to describe something good, e.g. "Metroid Prime is mega". So may in the UK, having a character named Mega Man is like having a character named Great Man in the US?

Or maybe it's because Mega Man's big games are all on Nintendo systems.


lol, not since the 80s. might as well describe something as 'rad'.

anyway, i was a big snes gamer back in the 90s, and i'm pretty sure the first time i ever heard of mega man was on this website circa 2003. for whatever reason (maybe late PAL releases, but a lot of games had that in the bad old days) the franchise never really took off here.
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#488 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/13/2013 2:13:40 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Fr0zoN posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.


Why does Mega Man suck so much in the UK?


I'm from the UK and pretty much didn't even know Megaman existed until I was 13 or something. I'm sure its the same for a lot of other people. You just dont see his games, tv advertisements or just about anything to do with him here.


Is it Capcom in general or just Mega Man?
Finding it weird that they would just...not release MM games there


Just Megaman. Every other capcom series was easy to find without looking. Everyone had Street Fighter, Resident Evil etc. Even games like Dino Crisis were easy to find in shops. I dont think I have ever seen a Megaman game in a game shop. In fact the 1st time I heard of Megaman I thought it was some sort of TV show.
#489 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/13/2013 2:23:34 PM | message detail | (edited)
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo's not that popular in Europe, but it's nothing compared to Mega Man.

Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.
Mega Man X lost to Jigglypuff in the UK.


Why does Mega Man suck so much in the UK?


Because for some reason or another his games were never marketed here properly in Europe and his character and fame never grew over here. Also the Megadrive(genesis) outsold SNES in UK. Megaman was a sNES character. I remember growing up as a kid and I actually had a SNES over Megadrive(in UK) but I never owned a single MM game. I would never ever find his games in the shop. First time I heard of him was actually in character battle in Gfaqs back in 2002 when I first joined the site.

His games never took off. Even with smash bros appearance...they won't do much in europe.
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#490 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/13/2013 2:55:15 PM | message detail
Aaaaand Cecil's dipped below 34%.
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#491 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/13/2013 2:57:15 PM | message detail
He'll recover when the night comes, more important is that Pit is about to drop below 44% on Wrex :D
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#492 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/13/2013 2:58:39 PM | message detail
I think I'm really glad I didn't pick Cecil, mainly because it would've been so frustrating to get him beating Pit correct, only to lose coz of Wrex.
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#493 | ZFS | Posted 8/13/2013 2:59:07 PM | message detail
I think Smash will do some real good for Mega Man, it's the best thing he's had in a good while, since MM9, but yeah, not nealy enough to think about threatening Mario in their match.
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#494 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/13/2013 3:00:48 PM | message detail
Wrex is the ****ing man
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#495 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/13/2013 3:02:03 PM | message detail
Mega Man is in a position where he can't really do much with the Smash boost. He's not challenging Mario and Samus, and he was already a step ahead of Sonic and Crono. He might use it to beat Sephiroth, but hell, he might have been at that level anyway. I doubt Snake is in play either since he also has Smash support and will probably get in Smash 4 as well. Sephiroth and Cloud are the only real goals for Smash-boosted MM.
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#496 | ZFS | Posted 8/13/2013 3:04:34 PM | message detail
I think Snake probably misses Smash 4, honestly.
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#497 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/13/2013 3:08:28 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I think I'm really glad I didn't pick Cecil, mainly because it would've been so frustrating to get him beating Pit correct, only to lose coz of Wrex.


This is gonna RKO a ton of brackets.
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#498 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/13/2013 3:09:26 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
I think I'm really glad I didn't pick Cecil, mainly because it would've been so frustrating to get him beating Pit correct, only to lose coz of Wrex.


This is gonna RKO a ton of brackets.


Yep, most of the ones that are in the top 150 with me.
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#499 | Whupassman | Posted 8/13/2013 3:10:00 PM | message detail
*rubs hands in glee*
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#500 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/13/2013 3:10:16 PM | message detail
Tell me, Pitty Pat, why exactly can't you fly?
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