Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1107

#301 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/13/2013 3:48:02 AM | message detail
It'd be great for my bracket since I have Wrex winning two rounds because I forgot to switch to Cecil before bracket lockdown!
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#302 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/13/2013 3:48:40 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#303 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/13/2013 3:51:40 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
I'm really wondering just how much of Missile's strength came from people thinking he was the Phoenix Wright dog.


A lot, probably
PW fans really remember the smallest details
Go adk any person who is Shoe and they will know
Even then though,they can mistake how Missile from PW looks like (hint:nothing like Missile from GT)

And good performance from Red
Still not enough to change back to Mewtwo>Vincent
Im so much disappointed with Missingno
#304 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/13/2013 3:55:20 AM | message detail
New bonus poll:

Missile vs. Polly vs. Shoe
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#305 | Whupassman | Posted 8/13/2013 4:02:32 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I would like to forget that it took the final update for Yuri Hyuga to get 10% against Lara Croft and Slime.

If you love Yuri, never nominate him again. That's just sad.


Some people are addicted to Humilithons.
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#306 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/13/2013 4:02:52 AM | message detail
Polly will win because of the "cross examination" factor
Shoe will get second place because of the "best case in the series" factor but I can see Missile pulling and upset because of the "dogs are better than cats" factor
#307 | Whupassman | Posted 8/13/2013 4:09:21 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Polly will win because of the "cross examination" factor
Shoe will get second place because of the "best case in the series" factor but I can see Missile pulling and upset because of the "dogs are better than cats" factor


Actually, you'd be surprised at the number of poxy Cat people on this board. More than you think.
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#308 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/13/2013 4:22:56 AM | message detail
Clearly the cat representative should be Alfador from Chrono Trigger. He's Magus's purple cat and also the entity.
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#309 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/13/2013 4:27:46 AM | message detail
Also, next match is one of those rare ones where I actually like all the characters involved.

Still gotta give Cecil a long-overdue win though so he can pull the upset on Red and beat Squall!
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#310 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/13/2013 7:02:27 AM | message detail
Steamroll is a steamroll.

I can't help but notice Red hit the 70% marker in this battle. Does he always fair this well or is it just the competition is so weak?
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#311 | 15_and_counting | Posted 8/13/2013 7:09:25 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
Steamroll is a steamroll.

I can't help but notice Red hit the 70% marker in this battle. Does he always fair this well or is it just the competition is so weak?


I mean, yeah, the competition is weak too, but POKEFEAR can't be overstated enough.
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#312 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/13/2013 7:12:05 AM | message detail
Match LXXII: (7) Pit vs. (12) Urdnot Wrex vs. (21) Cecil Harvey

Previous Contest

Pit – 2008
14.62% against Ryu Hayabusa, Zero and King Dedede

Urdnot Wrex – N/A
N/A

Cecil Harvey – 2010
48.00% against Knuckles the Echidna

Analysis

The board seems to be switching towards Cecil as the favourite. The main reason why I went with Cecil is I felt the Dissidia boost would be long term and that he would have enough strength to deal with a boosted Pit. I am not sure if you can still call it a Dissidia boost anymore, but Old Square in general have looked amazing, including Rydia who held her own in the face of Alucard/Falcon. As long as Cecil stays at least constant with is 2010 self then I feel confident that he will take first.

This will be the first time we get to see Pit without another Nintendo character in the poll, plus he has had his first game in over 20 years. I am surprised Pit did not get much strength from Super Smash Bros. Brawl, he is a fan favourite within the game and while I did not expect him to rise to Marth/Falcon’s level you would expect him to have some strength. While it is unfair to rate his strength when another Nintendo character was in the poll going even with King Dedede is not the best way to showcase your strength.

How much Pit boosts from his new game will likely be the factor on whether he can win this match. Both Palutena and Hades did not look great in that match, but it is easily expected that Pit will get more from the game than those two characters. The game being only on the 3DS is a bit concerning, the only comparison is Chrom and he was shown to be high fodder against The Boss, though Chrom may suffer from ensemble cast syndrome and may not represent the maximum a character can get on the 3DS.

Like the other secondary Mass Effect characters I do not expect much out of Wrex. I personally would not take Garrus to win this match and all Mordin, who I feel is weaker than Wrex did was convince me that Wrex will have a decent showing, but not threaten to win the match.

Pit, recovering from LFF and a new game could win this match, but I feel Cecil and Old Square will be too strong. Wrex should come in last unless Pit really flops which I do not see happening. This will be Cecil’s fourth contest and it looks like he will finally be getting his first win.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Cecil Harvey > Pit and Urdnot Wrex

charmander6000’s Prediction: Cecil Harvey – 40.63%, Pit – 34.75%, Urdnot Wrex – 24.62%
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#313 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/13/2013 7:24:54 AM | message detail
This should be a good one. I have Pit in my bracket, but I have to favour Cecil based on everything we've seen. Think it will be close either way though.
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#314 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 8/13/2013 7:27:21 AM | message detail
I just saw this match for the first time... Wow, Red. Is he legit noble nine strength now? I wouldn't expect Corvo to be complete turbo fodder after all.
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#315 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/13/2013 7:30:10 AM | message detail | (edited)
FateStayAlbion posted...
I just saw this match for the first time... Wow, Red. Is he legit noble nine strength now? I wouldn't expect Corvo to be complete turbo fodder after all.


I can't help but doubt it. These aren't the type of opponents I'd be trying to discern someone's strength from, after all.
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#316 | abdou | Posted 8/13/2013 7:34:08 AM | message detail
why wouldn't Corvo be complete turbo fodder? if guys from massive games like Bioshock and Skyrim are weak, a dude from a game like Dishonored can't be worth a damn. And lol the other guy, really who the hell is he.
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#317 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/13/2013 7:35:52 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I would like to forget that it took the final update for Yuri Hyuga to get 10% against Lara Croft and Slime.

If you love Yuri, never nominate him again. That's just sad.


Except he didn't even do that. It's just favorable rounding; his actual percentage was like 9.998%
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#318 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/13/2013 7:36:36 AM | message detail
I picked Pit because he has been consistently stuck under Nintendo so now that he has no other Nintendo characters to worry about AND his first game in over 20 years...but no, everything points to a Cecil win. Smash characters have consistently crapped the bed, as Marth didn't even put up a fight against Phoenix Wright, Captain Falcon allowed Alucard to knock him out in the 11th hour, Fox got owned by a freaking Pokemon Trainer (I know that's not necessarily a bad thing in terms of contest strength, but still), and the only winner in this situation was Mr. Game & Watch, who was held under 52% by a Generic McDude from a 2012 game. Speaking of which, 2012 (and 2013) games have largely proven to be worthless in terms of helping their characters' popularity, so that's another strike against Pit. Oh, and then old Square has been consistently doing well, so strike 3. Pit's out.

Pit's one hope lies in Cecil having the least casual appeal out of everyone in the match, and arguably out of all the old Square characters we've seen this contest (save maybe Locke I guess). Not a good thing to rely on.

Stuck in the Winless Pit! - 40%
Not Tyrannosaurus Wrex - 25%
Winning a Match is His Final Fantasy, and this is His Fourth One So He Scores! - 45%
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#319 | __Smurf__ | Posted 8/13/2013 7:42:47 AM | message detail
I don't think Captain Falcon or Marth disappointed at all, certainly wouldn't them as an example of Smash Bros "crapping the bed" this contest. Falcon wasn't even favoured to win his match and he almost did.
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#320 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/13/2013 7:47:21 AM | message detail
Either way though, all of them other than Mr. Game & Watch lost already, and Mr. Game & Watch struggled against precisely the kind of character that has been the most consistent disappointment all contest.

...would you guys pick Wolf or Ridley to win that match if they were in Game & Watch's place?
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#321 | creativename | Posted 8/13/2013 7:48:49 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
You mean he wasn't the Phoenix Wright dog!?

Can't tell if you're joking or not, but a lot of people had this exact reaction the day of the match.

I mean people say the dogs look different, but it's a dog and it's named Missile. Pics can vary and how many people are seriously thinking there's two dogs named Missile? If so many people in this topic the day of the match were surprised that the dog wasn't from PW, I would think the casual front page voters would be even more confused.

FateStayAlbion posted...
I just saw this match for the first time... Wow, Red. Is he legit noble nine strength now? I wouldn't expect Corvo to be complete turbo fodder after all.

I pegged Red at 68.50% and Corvo at 16.50% for my Oracle. I think most had around those same numbers too, people just had Sissel at Corvo's level.

So Corvo is actually doing better relative to Red than most expected.

This result tells us nothing about Red one way or the other. We have no idea how pitiful Corvo is - and he's definitely some level of pitiful. I see no reason why he'd be anything but turbofodder, and Sissel is barely worth mentioning.
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#322 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/13/2013 7:54:31 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Stuck in the Winless Pit! - 40%
Not Tyrannosaurus Wrex - 25%
Winning a Match is His Final Fantasy, and this is His Fourth One So He Scores! - 45%


Lrn2Math
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#323 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:03:42 AM | message detail
Pit needs an Uprising boost and a Cecil drop. There's no two ways about it. Those aren't impossible, but Pit went 50/50 with KING DEDEDE (what), so the fact that those two were splitting the Nintendo fanbase are meaningless. Cecil is virtually equal to Knuckles in a 24 hour match, and 48% on him in a day match (which is the more salient factor today).

King Dedede can't hang with Knuckles. Something has to change.
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#324 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:05:19 AM | message detail
Oh and uh if Wrex = Garrus (unlikely... I think?), he can actually win this depending on where Knuckles is today. We don't have a good read on the echidna. Still think he probably comes in last, a shame.
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#325 | superange128 | Posted 8/13/2013 8:07:57 AM | message detail
Wrex from what I've seen while liked seems a bit more mixed in terms of reception compared to Garrus who to me seems like easily the strongest ME squadmate

I still think Tali would be 2nd strongest and im still surprised she didn't get
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#326 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:09:40 AM | message detail
Garrus is the safe bet for #1. But the safe bet for #2 is *not* Tali, and she's my favorite squadmate. She's a niche fan favorite, ridiculously loved by some and dismissed by most. #2 is either Wrex or Liara, no doubt.
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#327 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/13/2013 8:12:13 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
You mean he wasn't the Phoenix Wright dog!?

Can't tell if you're joking or not, but a lot of people had this exact reaction the day of the match.

I mean people say the dogs look different, but it's a dog and it's named Missile. Pics can vary and how many people are seriously thinking there's two dogs named Missile? If so many people in this topic the day of the match were surprised that the dog wasn't from PW, I would think the casual front page voters would be even more confused.

FateStayAlbion posted...
I just saw this match for the first time... Wow, Red. Is he legit noble nine strength now? I wouldn't expect Corvo to be complete turbo fodder after all.

I pegged Red at 68.50% and Corvo at 16.50% for my Oracle. I think most had around those same numbers too, people just had Sissel at Corvo's level.

So Corvo is actually doing better relative to Red than most expected.

This result tells us nothing about Red one way or the other. We have no idea how pitiful Corvo is - and he's definitely some level of pitiful. I see no reason why he'd be anything but turbofodder, and Sissel is barely worth mentioning.


They are two different Missiles. Shu Takumi's dog is named that, so he honors him in his games, but they're not the same character. One's a Shiba Inu and one is a Pomeranian (the real Missile is a Pomeranian too).
#328 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 8/13/2013 8:15:22 AM | message detail
I think Wrex is well-liked but not as prominent as the other party members. He's the only party member in the first game to never join back in 2 or 3, and there's chances you never see him after the first game depending on choices, so I don't think he will be anywhere near as strong as Garrus, who is essentially Shepard's right hand man through all three games.
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#329 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/13/2013 8:17:38 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
creativename posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
You mean he wasn't the Phoenix Wright dog!?

Can't tell if you're joking or not, but a lot of people had this exact reaction the day of the match.

I mean people say the dogs look different, but it's a dog and it's named Missile. Pics can vary and how many people are seriously thinking there's two dogs named Missile? If so many people in this topic the day of the match were surprised that the dog wasn't from PW, I would think the casual front page voters would be even more confused.

FateStayAlbion posted...
I just saw this match for the first time... Wow, Red. Is he legit noble nine strength now? I wouldn't expect Corvo to be complete turbo fodder after all.

I pegged Red at 68.50% and Corvo at 16.50% for my Oracle. I think most had around those same numbers too, people just had Sissel at Corvo's level.

So Corvo is actually doing better relative to Red than most expected.

This result tells us nothing about Red one way or the other. We have no idea how pitiful Corvo is - and he's definitely some level of pitiful. I see no reason why he'd be anything but turbofodder, and Sissel is barely worth mentioning.


They are two different Missiles. Shu Takumi's dog is named that, so he honors him in his games, but they're not the same character. One's a Shiba Inu and one is a Pomeranian (the real Missile is a Pomeranian too).


Is the Pomeranian the one from Ghost Trick?
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#330 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:18:22 AM | message detail
Yeah, the fact that you never see Wrex if you don't have an ME1 file and saved him is what hurts him the most. Otherwise he's an easy #2 over Liara, and probably extremely close to Garrus despite being only playable in the first game.
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#331 | Whupassman | Posted 8/13/2013 8:20:22 AM | message detail
BLEH!

*jumps out with a severely sharpened cutlass*

Damn, no EXTHA on ngirl.
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#332 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/13/2013 8:22:00 AM | message detail
Yes, the Missile we saw is Top Pomeranian, y'know.

Going to ME squadmate chat, I found this pretty interesting when I came across it when doing research on ME squaddies: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtR6EP8I1q9adDZhYW9jZGRZVUNFRnVWWWoyOHlUR3c&hl=en#gid=0

How well do you think this transfers to GameFAQS?
#333 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/13/2013 8:24:41 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Stuck in the Winless Pit! - 40%
Not Tyrannosaurus Wrex - 25%
Winning a Match is His Final Fantasy, and this is His Fourth One So He Scores! - 45%


Lrn2Math


Yeah somehow I thought that 40 + 40 + 30 = 100. Uh, redo:

Pit - 35%
Wrex - 25%
Cecil - 40%
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#334 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:28:16 AM | message detail
Uh, if you want statistics that are most worthwhile, right here for ME3 should be pretty illuminating on the subject of Wrex (IMPLIED SPOILERS):

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18ie6sg7gatq8jpg/ku-xlarge.jpg
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#335 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/13/2013 8:30:55 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Uh, if you want statistics that are most worthwhile, right here for ME3 should be pretty illuminating on the subject of Wrex (IMPLIED SPOILERS):

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18ie6sg7gatq8jpg/ku-xlarge.jpg


Those statistics seem way less reliable to me, though. Who here takes Liara to be equal or better than Garrus? The answer's nobody. Same with Vega being any good - those statistics are not weighted in any way.
#336 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:40:03 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Uh, if you want statistics that are most worthwhile, right here for ME3 should be pretty illuminating on the subject of Wrex (IMPLIED SPOILERS):

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18ie6sg7gatq8jpg/ku-xlarge.jpg


Those statistics seem way less reliable to me, though. Who here takes Liara to be equal or better than Garrus? The answer's nobody. Same with Vega being any good - those statistics are not weighted in any way.


These are the statistics compiled from all of ME3 by Bioware themselves. Survival rate doesn't matter really for Vega or Liara because they're not squadmates in ME2 Lair of the Shadow Broker aside - it's a gauge of how many ME2ers got Garrus and Tali to survive, etc.

Vega is actually popular among the dudebro crowd, but you can reduce their influence by like a factor of a thousand for a site like GameFAQs.

It doesn't account for people that only played ME1 or ME2, but it's illuminating nevertheless.
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#337 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/13/2013 8:45:19 AM | message detail
So I changed to Cecil > Pit > Wrex

So much self-hatred going on right now........
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#338 | Qwaar | Posted 8/13/2013 8:52:17 AM | message detail
I have Cecil in my expert and Wrex in my main. I still think Wrex has an outside shot at winning this. It's a shame that Mass Effect characters haven't done so well.
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#339 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/13/2013 8:54:34 AM | message detail
Uh, Shepard is favored over Aeris and Garrus looks to be on Tidus's level based on his proportion to Sub-Zero. Yeah, Mordin did bad, but that's because Mordin is just super duper weak. You might as well hang Zelda for Groose bombing to hell.
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#340 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/13/2013 8:59:34 AM | message detail
I figure Mordin is a good bet for #2. The fact that he didn't appear in the original game is practically irrelevant.
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#341 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/13/2013 8:59:35 AM | message detail
I'm not really convinced for any character in this coming match...should be good. I understood Wrex would be closer to Garrus than Mordin before the brackets locked down -- is this not the case? The ME-games won't run well on my computer, so I can't tell from playing them myself.

Rabble.....
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#342 | Qwaar | Posted 8/13/2013 8:59:54 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Uh, Shepard is favored over Aeris and Garrus looks to be on Tidus's level based on his proportion to Sub-Zero. Yeah, Mordin did bad, but that's because Mordin is just super duper weak. You might as well hang Zelda for Groose bombing to hell.


I guess I just thought Garrus would have been stronger.
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#343 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:15 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Pit
44.44%
4 Votes
Your Pick

Urdnot Wrex
11.11%
1 Votes

Cecil Harvey
44.44%
4 Votes
Total Votes: 9
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POKEFEAR
#344 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:18 AM | message detail
Pit
50%
10 Votes
Your Pick

Urdnot Wrex
5%
1 Votes

Cecil Harvey
45%
9 Votes
#345 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:25 AM | message detail
Pit
36.36%
4 Votes

Urdnot Wrex
9.09%
1 Votes

Cecil Harvey
54.55%
6 Votes
Your Pick

Total Votes: 11
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#346 | paulg235 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:28 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Pit
50%
11 Votes
Your Pick
Urdnot Wrex
4.55%
1 Votes
Cecil Harvey
45.45%
10 Votes
Total Votes: 22

lol Wrex
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#347 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:35 AM | message detail
Wrex will not get the board vote


Pit
53.57%
15 Votes

Urdnot Wrex
7.14%
2 Votes

Cecil Harvey
39.29%
11 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 57/70 Today's Picks: Red and Cecil
#348 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:37 AM | message detail
#349 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:47 AM | message detail
OMG Go Pit!
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#350 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/13/2013 9:00:48 AM | message detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG77HTdreh0&hd=1
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