Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1107

#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/12/2013 11:39:21 AM | message detail
SBAllen posted...
The results of this battle are correct as you see them. After the semi-successful vote-stuffing for the Touhou characters, we implemented new stricter anti-bot code. It worked well and weeded out the sources the vote-stuffing came from.

We caught vote-stuffing at a 2-to-1 ratio for Tidus. Votes from new visitors (i.e. any possible vote stuffing) was 50.7% for Tidus.There was also a small-scale reddit rush in the last hour which resulted in a lot of last minute voting.


(so it's archived on Ngamer's site)


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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I wouldn't put it past myself to do such a thing.
#2 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 11:40:14 AM | message detail
Was just about to make a topic with that same quote!
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#3 | Whupassman | Posted 8/12/2013 11:41:27 AM | message detail
Seconds out, Ulti vs that guy, Round 600

Taking all bets!

(It will happen at some point)
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The Artist Commonly Known as The Hardcore Kid
#4 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/12/2013 11:41:48 AM | message detail
damn those Tidus stuffers haha
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~Masa
#5 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:51:35 AM | message detail
You heard it in the last topic, folks. The odds are stacked against MissingNo. Which can mean only one thing.

http://i.imgur.com/cMj3QIA.png
http://i.imgur.com/57HJU24.jpg
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Ace Detective for Hire
That Rad Link 5 is going to spend hours in GIMP this contest.
#6 | Advokaiser | Posted 8/12/2013 12:21:29 PM | message detail
So the match without stuffers would have ended up something like:

Missingno - 45%
Tidus - 35%
Banjo - 20%

Right?
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#7 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:23:36 PM | message detail
SBAllen posted...
The results of this battle are correct as you see them. After the semi-successful vote-stuffing for the Touhou characters, we implemented new stricter anti-bot code. It worked well and weeded out the sources the vote-stuffing came from.

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Abound with so much information
#8 | NachoSwordsman | Posted 8/12/2013 12:25:51 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
You heard it in the last topic, folks. The odds are stacked against MissingNo. Which can mean only one thing.

http://i.imgur.com/cMj3QIA.png
http://i.imgur.com/57HJU24.jpg


Lol if Missingno wins this next round you definitely need to post that first pic again
#9 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:27:55 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, if you take what Bacon said at his word, the current results are legit.

It's immediately underminded by the Indonesia vote in Geolocation (which does back up the 2:1 Tidus thing) which makes for a rather weird situation, but again, if you take Bacon's post literally then what we have is legit.
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#10 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/12/2013 1:14:38 PM | message detail | (edited)
What's wrong with Indonesia's votes?
Link/Ganondorf lost to literally Arthas/Illidan there.

The place just produces weird results compared to the rest of the world.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#11 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:14:20 PM | message detail
Banjo having less than 1% of the vote in Indonesia is... well, not really feasible. I would assume the Geolocation stuff is pre-stuffing screening, which also explains s*** like Ghana and Mongolia and the Sudan and what have you.
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#12 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 1:14:40 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
What's wrong with Indonesia's votes?
Link/Ganondorf lost to literally Arthas/Illidan there.

The place produces weird results compared to the rest of the world.


That it somehow pulled in hundreds of votes, which is ludicrous.
#13 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 1:17:01 PM | message detail
Here's a tip: Don't trust whatever bulls*** anybody says concerning cheating. The only people who know what they're talking about are Bacon, Devin, and Luster.
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#14 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:17:29 PM | message detail
But if you take Indonesia at face value, as part of the final match results, you basically have to conclude that votes need to be taken away from Tidus - which obviously wouldn't change the match result but raises questions nevertheless.
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#15 | ZFS | Posted 8/12/2013 1:18:24 PM | message detail
screwed big boss screwed the Luigi train has arrived

http://i.imgur.com/WkOr6lS.jpg
http://i.minus.com/iRQ8ZRcsz7piB.jpg
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#16 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 1:20:22 PM | message detail
#17 | Whupassman | Posted 8/12/2013 1:21:51 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Banjo having less than 1% of the vote in Indonesia is... well, not really feasible. I would assume the Geolocation stuff is pre-stuffing screening, which also explains s*** like Ghana and Mongolia and the Sudan and what have you.


That comment could be seen a bit... you know... not-very-PC...
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The Artist Commonly Known as The Hardcore Kid
#18 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:27:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
I'd love for Africa to have more of a presence here, but most matches the vast majority of Africa doesn't cast a single vote. So when a country like the Congo pops up for one super close match - and that match only - it's a red flag.

Edit: While in Marisa's match (who got docked 2000 votes) for example, a good third of the African countries have cast votes instead of almost none of 'em.
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#19 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 1:26:29 PM | message detail
Besides KH is black that means it's ok.
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~War~
#20 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 1:28:35 PM | message detail
1. It's not ludicrous at all. You know what Indonesia's official language is? English.
2. It wouldn't really take all that many votes to produce those percentages. 92 votes for Tidus, 33 for Missingno., and 1 for Banjo. An awful performance by Banjo to be sure, getting only 1 out of every 126 votes (and I'm assuming that if it's not the product of stuffing, the total is either 126 or 252), but it's possible.

Anyway, I came into this topic to LOL at myself for not checking my PMs. Turns out I received the same message that Luster did and I only just now noticed it.
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#21 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:29:06 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Missingno – 40.58% vs. Tidus – 40.50% - Round 1 – 0.08%
2. Lloyd Irving – 23.62% vs. Big Daddy – 23.45% - Round 1 – 0.17%
3. Alucard – 36.32% vs. Captain Falcon – 35.95% - Round 1 – 0.37%
4. Ike – 35.81% vs. Proto Man – 35.26% - Round 1 – 0.55%
5. Tharja – 36.21% vs. Tiny Tina – 35.35% - Round 1 – 0.86%
6. Guybrush Threepwood – 18.06% vs. Max Payne – 16.76% - Round 1 – 1.30%
7. Viewtiful Joe – 25.65% vs. Handsome Jack – 24.20% - Round 1 – 1.45%
8. Missile – 19.26 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 17.74% - Round 1 – 1.52%
9. Captain Viridian – 13.51% vs. Peacock – 11.60% - Round 1 – 1.91%
10. Catherine – 39.84% vs. Neku Sakuraba – 37.87% - Round 1 – 1.97%
10. Tom Nook – 29.82% vs. Pyramid Head – 27.85% - Round 1 – 1.97%

Top 10 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Missingno – 11567 vs. Tidus – 11544 – Round 1 – 23
2. Lloyd Irving – 6223 vs. Big Daddy – 6177 – Round 1 – 46
3. Alucard – 10242 vs. Captain Falcon – 10139 – Round 1 – 103
4. Tharja – 11016 vs. Tiny Tina – 10753 – Round 1 – 263
5. Captain Viridian – 3128 vs. Peacock – 2685 – Round 1 – 443
6. Tom Nook – 7496 vs. Pyramid Head – 7000 – Round 1 – 496
7. Nathan Drake – 9667 vs. Pac-Man – 8974 – Round 1 – 693
8. Isaac – 4443 vs. Tingle – 3463 – Round 1 – 980
9. Crash Bandicoot – 11242 vs. Wheatley – 9702 – Round 1 – 1540
10. Cole – 5783 vs. Ragna the Bloodedge – 4240 – Round 1 – 1543

Top 10 Most Popular Night Polls
1. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 39737
2. Yoshi vs. Solaire of Astora vs. Demi-Fiend – Round 1 – 30487
3. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 30420
4. Link vs. Isaac vs. Tingle – Round 1 – 28930
5. Missingno vs. Tidus vs. Banjo – Round 1 – 28503
6. Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Rydia – Round 1 – 28202
7. Sephiroth vs. Midna vs. Little Mac – Round 1 – 28199
8. Tifa Lockheart vs. Chun-Li vs. Cirno – Round 1 – 28140
9. Mega Man X vs. Jigglypuff vs. Welkin Gunther – Round 1 – 27860
10. Sub-Zero vs. Garrus Vakarian vs. Frank West – Round 1 – 27770

Top 10 Least Impressive Night Winners
1. Nathan Drake – Round 1 – 9667
2. Yoshimitsu – Round 1 – 9815
3. Elizabeth – Round 1 – 10217
4. Alucard – Round 1 – 10242
5. Dragonborn – Round 1 – 10638
6. Tharja – Round 1 – 11016
7. Crash Bandicoot – Round 1 – 11242
8. Missingno – Round 1 – 11567
9. Knuckles the Echidna – Round 1 – 11590
10. Auron – Round 1 – 11625

Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Jak – Round 1 – 13191
2. Tidus – Round 1 – 11544
3. Garrus Vakarian – Round 1 – 11143
4. Tiny Tina – Round 1 – 10753
5. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 10465
6. Captain Falcon – Round 1 – 10139
7. Wheatley – Round 1 – 9702
8. Marth – Round 1 – 9699
9. Scorpion – Round 1 – 9179
10. Pac-Man – Round 1 – 8974
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Points: 55/68 Today's Picks: Missingno and Wario
#22 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:30:42 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
1. It's not ludicrous at all. You know what Indonesia's official language is? English.
2. It wouldn't really take all that many votes to produce those percentages. 92 votes for Tidus, 33 for Missingno., and 1 for Banjo. An awful performance by Banjo to be sure, getting only 1 out of every 126 votes (and I'm assuming that if it's not the product of stuffing, the total is either 126 or 252), but it's possible.

Anyway, I came into this topic to LOL at myself for not checking my PMs. Turns out I received the same message that Luster did and I only just now noticed it.


That poor of a performance by Banjo, who got roughly 19% of the vote worldwide, is tough to swallow. It's not impossible, it's just very unlikely.
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#23 | swordz9 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:31:17 PM | message detail
So the results page is the true results with all the votes removed?
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#24 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 1:31:43 PM | message detail
Marisa's and Cirno's both, but in the latter, they weren't all for Cirno. Zambia's only two appearances of the contest were to vote for Tifa and to vote for Marisa.
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#25 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:32:41 PM | message detail
No votes got removed. The cheated votes discussed in the OP were pre-screened.
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#26 | swordz9 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:33:45 PM | message detail
Oh, Missingno is totally screwed against Squall. Good thing I only had it advancing one round.
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#27 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:33:47 PM | message detail
Out of the 10 closest matches,5 were for the 1st position.Nice.
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#28 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/12/2013 1:40:41 PM | message detail
Even Link sucks in Indonesia and Asia in general.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3509

If Ocarina of Time, to say nothing of all the other Zelda games, does nothing for people there, why do you think Banjo-Kazooie is going to do it for them?

And Banjo barely did any better in the Phillipines.

Hell, Banjo always sucks in Indonesia.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4529
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3780
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3462 (Almost fell below 1% there!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4123 (pretty good compared to everything else! Banjo-Tooie at 10%!? Clearly he was stuffed there!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3261 (even lower than in this match!)

Why exactly is this unbelievable?
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#29 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 1:45:42 PM | message detail | (edited)
nvm; stupid long post times on the mobile.
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#30 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:46:40 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Even Link sucks in Indonesia and Asia in general.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3509

If Ocarina of Time, to say nothing of all the other Zelda games, does nothing for people there, why do you think Banjo-Kazooie is going to do it for them?

And Banjo barely did any better in the Phillipines.

Hell, Banjo always sucks in Indonesia.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4529
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3780
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3462 (Almost fell below 1% there!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4123 (pretty good compared to everything else! Banjo-Tooie at 10%!? Clearly he was stuffed there!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3261 (even lower than in this match!)

Why exactly is this unbelievable?


It's difficult to swallow as a stand-alone piece of evidence because the voter preferences being so uniform - you expect a half-decent amount of the userbase will simply vote at random which will make percentages like that all but impossible.

But taken alongside the rest of those matches you've presented there's a lot of corroborating evidence, so much so that the initial conclusion seems untenable. I admit I am very likely in error and that it seems very probable now that Banjo is just unbelievably unpopular there.
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#31 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:47:28 PM | message detail
Pretty sure the number of votes that came from Indonesia in that match is highly disproportionate to other matches, but I didn't actually do research on that, so don't take it at face value.

Either way, it doesn't really matter because stripping Tidus's Indonesian votes away doesn't make MissingNo. look any more prepared to take down Squall.
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#32 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 2:02:34 PM | message detail | (edited)
Rad Link 5 posted...
Pretty sure the number of votes that came from Indonesia in that match is highly disproportionate to other matches, but I didn't actually do research on that, so don't take it at face value.

Either way, it doesn't really matter because stripping Tidus's Indonesian votes away doesn't make MissingNo. look any more prepared to take down Squall.


It wouldn't matter even if it had a disproportionate impact because we have a comparable sample size both times. I think I have to concede just flat-out wrongness on this, from examining this Indonesia Banjo makes Chester look like Link.

Edit: And by 'look like Link', I mean using stats Chester is expected to get 76.74% on Indonesia Banjo.
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#33 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:59:06 PM | message detail
The point about Indonesia supposedly proving Tidus's stuffing wasn't Banjo's horribleness there, though. It was the high minimum vote total the set of percentages there resulted in.
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#34 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 2:00:42 PM | message detail
That's suggestive, but not nearly as conclusive.
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#35 | Squirrelgate | Posted 8/12/2013 2:01:23 PM | message detail
I just checked everywhere and I don't think there's been a single Creeper rally. The one time I bank on one happening...
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#36 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 2:01:40 PM | message detail
Of course it's disproportionate. The match was so heavily rallied it got a big chunk more votes than usual. It was a close match involving a popular joke character and the protagonist to one of the more-popular Final Fantasy games. Of course some countries are going to have more voters than usual, since the entire point of rallies is to bring in voters who'd never otherwise vote in a match. And these extra votes are going to come from a lot of various countries during night matches.

People are just forgoing common sense and resorting to conspiracy theories because the character they wanted to win lost. Or maybe ghosts did it.
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#37 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 2:06:37 PM | message detail
You're right. People are forging conspiracy theories about Tidus overperforming due to unremoved stuffed votes because they wanted him to win.
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Link, for example, is a classic beta male. -UltimaterializerX
#38 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 2:08:02 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Even Link sucks in Indonesia and Asia in general.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3509

If Ocarina of Time, to say nothing of all the other Zelda games, does nothing for people there, why do you think Banjo-Kazooie is going to do it for them?

And Banjo barely did any better in the Phillipines.

Hell, Banjo always sucks in Indonesia.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4529
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3780
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3462 (Almost fell below 1% there!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4123 (pretty good compared to everything else! Banjo-Tooie at 10%!? Clearly he was stuffed there!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3261 (even lower than in this match!)

Why exactly is this unbelievable?


Wow. Those maps are glorious. Although that last one is pretty lulzy in its own right--Nero's so close to Mega Man!

Dang, though...so many countries with votes there that have yet to vote even once in this contest. These votals really are awful. (Going just on what I can see on the map itself, without going into source code, poll 3261 brought in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Fiji, and the Falkland Islands; 3462 had Liberia and the aforementioned Fiji; 3780 had Niger; 4123 had Mauritania, Malawi, and Fiji yet again; and 4529...okay, by that point we had already reached the awfulness of today's, but then again, Rivalry Rumble.)
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#39 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/12/2013 2:23:17 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5161

There we go. Night match with a Final Fantasy character dominating in Indonesia. Percentages work with a minimum 223 votes and a 194-15-14 split. Based on that, I'd guess this match was more likely to be 252 votes than 126.

Unless we think people are stuffing for FFVII characters now in matches they can't possibly lose. Because they've looked so good against fodder lately.

Combined with the Legend of Indonesian Banjo and I see no remaining issues.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#40 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/12/2013 2:35:13 PM | message detail
Squirrelgate posted...
I just checked everywhere and I don't think there's been a single Creeper rally. The one time I bank on one happening...


Here's a pro-tip, never bank on rallies. If you don't think a character can win a match on his/her merits, 9 times out of 10, its not a good idea to take them.
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#41 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 2:35:43 PM | message detail
Yup, that looks pretty solid. Good work.
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#42 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 3:12:31 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
The point about Indonesia supposedly proving Tidus's stuffing wasn't Banjo's horribleness there, though. It was the high minimum vote total the set of percentages there resulted in.


Except that's not really that high compared to what we know Indonesia's capable of. It's 126. Lemme go back through the last few matches and see what the minimums were.

Amaterasu vs. Vyse vs. Adol Christin
Amaterasu 64.84%
Vyse 10.16%
Adol Christin 25%

That'll be Amaterasu 83, Vyse 13, Adol 32, for a total of 128.

Squall Leonhart vs. Rayman vs. Commander Video
Squall 88.33%
Rayman 8.95%
Video 2.72%

It takes a hell of a lot of votes to get 2.72, because it's both just a little bit above 1/37 (.027 repeating) and just a little under 3/110 (3/11 is .27 repeating, so slide a leading 0 in front of that--.0272727272727...) I know what you're thinking, but 3/110 would round to 2.73%. So right there we need something we can wedge between 3/110 and 3/111=1/37. Let's not go to 6/221 right away (it doesn't work anyway)... 4/147 works. But can it work with the others? ...No it can't. 5/184, but that won't work...7/257?

Yeah, there we go. Squall 227, Rayman 23, Video 7, total of 257. Our last two minimums were 252/2 and 256/2, and now we've got 257. Shall we keep going?

Ganondorf vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs. Max Payne
Ganondorf 29.41%
Guybrush 18.82%
Max 51.76%

Ganondorf 25, Guybrush 16, Max 44 = 85. Small, but wouldn't you know it, 85 * 3 = 255, right in line with the other three. Dare we look at the stuffed match?

Vivi 53.6%
Adam 14%
Marisa 32.4%

So troll with those nice round numbers? Hardly; it's tough to get close enough to round off to a round number without being on one. Try this on for size: Vivi 134, Adam 35, Marisa 81--total of 250.

Mario 82.61%
Duke Nukem 13.91%
Fawful 3.48%

Mario 95, Duke 16, Fawful 4, total of 115. Comes up kind of low when you bring it into range of the others, but I'm not about to multiply high enough for the 115 and the 126 to be multiplied by different numbers so I'm just blaming this on it being a boring match.

Tifa Lockhart vs. Cirno vs. Chun-Li
Tifa: 63.9%
Cirno 28.65%
Chun-Li 7.45%

First thing that works for Chun-Li's is 7/94, but that won't work with the other two, and most of the early multiples of 7/multiples of 94 are out as well because the two closest to 28.65% were 27.66% and 28.72%--definitely a long way away from finding one that can cut that close below the latter. Next we have 12/161...that won't do it either. 19/255 (should it really be a surprise that (7+12)/(94+161) is also close to that percentage?)...No, and there's a 28.63% on the /255 line so that makes it unlikely that Chun-Li's vote total is a multiple of 19 either. Wait, we're already into the 250s and haven't found it yet? 24/322 doesn't work either, though the spacing's fairly even so multiples of 12 are still worth checking, so next is...26/349. Of course it is.

And it works. Tifa 223, Cirno 100, Chun-Li 26, total 349. That's higher than usual, but then again, that's a match where we know there was stuffing. (It does, however, line up well with Mario/Duke/Fawful--115 * 3 = 345). I'd like one more normal match, though...

Master Chief vs. Yuna vs. Claire Redfield
Master Chief 18.18%
Yuna 57.34%
Claire 24.48%

That's... Chief 26, Yuna 82, Claire 35, total of 143. That's not normal at all! If you assume that the numbers in the 250s are about right, this match gets like 286. And I doubt that we need to multiply this one by 5 and everything in the 250s by 3--that's just too much. Still...looks like Indonesia votes quite a bit.
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#43 | Whupassman | Posted 8/12/2013 3:17:55 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
nvm; stupid long post times on the mobile.


GAMEFAQS on a mobile.. never again!
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#44 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 3:21:14 PM | message detail
I sincerely hope the reason that post come an hour after Axem's wasn't because you were typing that one up on your mobile, too. That is a lot of typing to do on a little keyboard.
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#45 | NotTerrafire | Posted 8/12/2013 4:02:20 PM | message detail
Indonesia (lowest possible vote totals for each match):

#1: Link/Isaac/Tingle: 198 votes
#2: Raiden/Waluigi/Alan Wake: 44 votes
#3: Yoshi/Solaire/Demi-Fiend: 233 votes
#4: Shepard/Olimar/Kain: 97 votes
#5: Tharja/Juliet Starling/Tiny Tina: 228 votes
#6: Hero/Rinoa/Aeris: 138 votes
#7: Draven/Chie/Jak: 293 votes
#8: Yuri/Ryu/Face McShooty: 140 votes
#9: X/Welkin Gunther/Jigglypuff: 279 votes
#10: Sonic/Fei Fong Wong/Dan: 125 votes
#11: Lucina/Dracula/Caim: 171 votes
#12: Layton/Barret/Reimu: 141 votes
#13: Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare: 238 votes
#14: KOS-MOS/Dunban/Vincent: 137 votes
#15: Chester/Mewtwo/Zero: 105 votes

And so on. Note that these are minimum possible totals, extrapolated from the percentages on the map. This means that more votes could have been cast, and in the case of #2 and #4 almost certainly were, but the actual votals cannot be lower than these numbers. The minimum possible votal of 126 votes in the disputed match (and more likely possibility of 252 votes) does not therefore indicate cheating by itself.
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#46 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 4:56:26 PM | message detail
Conclusion: Stop pretending you know s*** about so-and-so country having fishy votals, unless you're one of the above people who's willing to actually do the research.
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#47 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/12/2013 4:59:05 PM | message detail
Wario wins easily, while KOAC gets a little bit closer to Creeper than I expected. I don't think Wario looks like he has any strength here or anything - Tidus tripled KOAC when he was somewhat relevant.

Round 1, Match 70

(4) Pokemon Trainer Red
(15) Corvo Attano
(24) Sissel

Red wins easily. If he's stronger now that he has RBY pics he should be able to really blow these weaklings away, but even if he's still more or less even with Ocelot he'd hit the high 50s without much trouble.

I think Corvo has the battle for second place. He might be a recent western character, but he's an assassin by design as well as nature, and those types are a lot more appealing than McDudes. Dishonored's also a game that people actually like and talk about in such terms that people like me (who don't play games outside of their bubble often) were wont to try it out, so he should have a fanbase. Sissel doesn't have DogFAQs going for him like Missile did, and so probably won't be getting rallied. He's also likely disadvantaged by the presence of one of the strongest handheld characters in the bracket in his match. He could still win, but Corvo would have to be near Caim-level for it to happen, which I don't see being the case.

Bracket: Pokemon Trainer Red
Expert: Red > Corvo > Sissel
Oracle: Pokemon Trainer Red - 68%; Corvo Attano - 19.5%; Sissel - 12.5%
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#48 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 8/12/2013 5:24:09 PM | message detail
dat Creeper gain
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#49 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/12/2013 5:26:08 PM | message detail
It's amazing. We all thought Touhou was too niche and unknown to bring anything to the table in these contests, but it turns out they were quite influential in one of the closest matches of all time.
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#50 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/12/2013 5:28:38 PM | message detail
Tidus: And I would have got away with it too, if it wasn't for the new anti-stuffing measures brought in because of those Touhou girls.
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