Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1106

#401 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:52:12 AM | message detail
I still can't believe people literally voted Squall over Auron
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#402 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 10:52:51 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah Tidus would easily throttle DK, Magus, and Chief. You guys are forgetting how even WORSE those last three are in the wake of this loss.


For a second I wanted to argue DK could make it close mano a mano, then I remembered Vivi throttled him and regained my senses. Here's a fun one though: Tidus/Shadow/Riku/Mewtwo. Who ya got?
#403 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:53:10 AM | message detail
Not in AMERICA ;-;
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#404 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 10:53:10 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I still can't believe people literally voted Squall over Auron


Superior character winz, best result.
#405 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 10:54:21 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Holy - Squall's just untouchable in Europe. That's like 40+ on Base Link if you just go by the night vote. Crazy stuff!

...You know, is the Mario/Squall/Red or Cecil matchup a night match? Suddenly I've got weird thoughts running through my brain.


24 hour match. I would entertain Squall as a crazy upset special in a Mario/Squall/Red night match.


Oh right. Darn! Unless Red turns out to be a hidden BEAST with RBY pics and holds Mario down harder than the entire Mario lineup combined, Squall can't do it then. Pity that!
#406 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:54:37 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah Tidus would easily throttle DK, Magus, and Chief. You guys are forgetting how even WORSE those last three are in the wake of this loss.


For a second I wanted to argue DK could make it close mano a mano, then I remembered Vivi throttled him and regained my senses. Here's a fun one though: Tidus/Shadow/Riku/Mewtwo. Who ya got?


Shadow's fallen off a cliff. Riku has only been getting worse. Mewtwo needs to prove himself. Tidus is Tidus.

Mewtwo prohibitively. If he flops, Tidus in a 24 hour match. Tidus in a night match. Riku in a day match.
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#407 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 10:55:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Throw Guybrush in there and I think he'd win that match.

e: I meant the Tidus/MC/DK/Magus clustersuck.
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#408 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:56:18 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Holy - Squall's just untouchable in Europe. That's like 40+ on Base Link if you just go by the night vote. Crazy stuff!

...You know, is the Mario/Squall/Red or Cecil matchup a night match? Suddenly I've got weird thoughts running through my brain.


24 hour match. I would entertain Squall as a crazy upset special in a Mario/Squall/Red night match.


Oh right. Darn! Unless Red turns out to be a hidden BEAST with RBY pics and holds Mario down harder than the entire Mario lineup combined, Squall can't do it then. Pity that!


Doesn't need to be that bad. Zelda nearly cost Mario a match against Mega Man X, and that's when you consider he was SFFing MMX too (it just wasn't enough to overcome the Zelda fanbase split). Red being Zelda tier gives Squall a shot.
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#409 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/12/2013 10:56:35 AM | message detail
Also an update on the list of R1 losers with the most prolific contest history (not sure if "prolific" is the right word to use though), measured in number of contest matches (with win-loss record in parentheses afterwards):

Master Chief - 19 (11-8)
Tidus - 14 (5-9)
Ryu Hayabusa - 12 (5-7)
Scorpion - 12 (6-6)
Pac-Man - 11 (4-7)
Fox - 11 (5-6)
Duke Nukem - 11 (4-7)
KOS-MOS - 10 (3-7)
CATS - 9 (0-9)
Tommy Vercetti - 9 (4-5)
Revolver Ocelot - 9 (3-6)
Captain Falcon - 8 (3-5)
Tails - 8 (1-7)

Lol Chief is the only one with a winning record, and even then ONLY because of 2007 (in which case his record would be 7-7, and he'd STILL be #1, albeit tied with Tidus).

I'm assuming we'd all pick Pac-Man > Duke without a second thought? I just find it kinda odd that their win-loss records are exactly the same.

Also in case you guys are curious, both Vyse and Guybrush have each been in six contest matches.
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#410 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:57:34 AM | message detail
That zopharfaqs guy claims in his blog that he is responsible for the failed stuffing attempt for Tidus.
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#411 | voltch | Posted 8/12/2013 10:58:20 AM | message detail
George Romero where are you?
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#412 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 11:00:00 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Holy - Squall's just untouchable in Europe. That's like 40+ on Base Link if you just go by the night vote. Crazy stuff!

...You know, is the Mario/Squall/Red or Cecil matchup a night match? Suddenly I've got weird thoughts running through my brain.


24 hour match. I would entertain Squall as a crazy upset special in a Mario/Squall/Red night match.


Oh right. Darn! Unless Red turns out to be a hidden BEAST with RBY pics and holds Mario down harder than the entire Mario lineup combined, Squall can't do it then. Pity that!


Doesn't need to be that bad. Zelda nearly cost Mario a match against Mega Man X, and that's when you consider he was SFFing MMX too (it just wasn't enough to overcome the Zelda fanbase split). Red being Zelda tier gives Squall a shot.


I think it does. Zelda has a special quality to it that makes it really not fold, because it's the absolute top of the top of the top of the Nintendo Totem Pole. Let's take a moment to remember Midna dragging Mewtwo down to her level so bad she could've won with just a few more votes. RBY is resilient, but not THAT resilient.

...I think, at least.
#413 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 11:00:50 AM | message detail
voltch posted...
George Romero where are you?


Revving up the engines for Draven's match obv, did no one tell you?

(Incidentally, gonna use this nice boring match to get the planning train for that started. I hope Draven can put on a great show come match time)
#414 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 11:01:00 AM | message detail
Squall has no chance, as Mario has both Nintendo SFF and color red SFF.

I mean, who would vote for Red when Mario is more red?
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#415 | voltch | Posted 8/12/2013 11:01:22 AM | message detail
Mordekaiser is basically Cirno from what I can gather.
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#416 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 11:01:52 AM | message detail
Heck, Mario/Squall/Red might be a deceptively much worse setup for Mario than Mario/MMX/Zelda. Zelda still got noticeably SFFed by the big man. Red, being Pokemon, might not fold at ALL, in which case Mario would look stupendously awful. Then factor in the fact that Mario can't SFF Squall, unlike Mega Man X, who he barely beat...

...I still won't take it. But food for thought.
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#417 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 11:02:32 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
So 2nd closest match ever right?

No.

Just off the top of my head Alucard/Liquid and Frog/Chief both were closer, having been in the single digits.


Second closest "advancement" match; fourth-closest overall. Alucard/Liquid (3 votes) was for first place in a fourway so both of them advanced anyway and Trainers/Cloudiroth (10 votes) was a hastily-added bronze medal match. Those two and Frog/Chief (7 votes) are the only three that were closer.
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#418 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:02:55 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
voltch posted...
George Romero where are you?


Revving up the engines for Draven's match obv, did no one tell you?

(Incidentally, gonna use this nice boring match to get the planning train for that started. I hope Draven can put on a great show come match time)


*shuts down rally attempt*
#419 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 11:04:42 AM | message detail
Man, Brawl pictures must be horrible if they were holding back Red from Zelda-level to Ocelot-level.
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#420 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 11:06:29 AM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
That zopharfaqs guy claims in his blog that he is responsible for the failed stuffing attempt for Tidus.


He also claims he'll show "proof", but based on what he said about this match, it looks like we'll never get a chance to see that proof because Allen's new measures are supposedly going to keep the "obvious stuffed votes" from ever being counted in the first place. And judging by the fact that we never saw any character's vote totals decrease, I'm willing to at least believe the interpretation that the "new security measures" are designed to stop the falsified votes from ever showing up on the poll in the first place.
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#421 | swordz9 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:06:49 AM | message detail
I'd vote for Red over Mario any day of the week unless it's Brawl Red maybe since that joker isn't the same Red to me.
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#422 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 11:06:51 AM | message detail
voltch posted...
Mordekaiser is basically Cirno from what I can gather.


Nnnnnnnot really. I think. I'm the biggest Mordekaiser guy you can find, but Cirno is bsaically the first of the second line Touhous (behind Reimu, Marisa, and perhaps Youmu and Alice). Mordekaiser is probably third-tier among the LoL fanbase because scrubs HATE him, though his fans are pretty wild. If I have to delineate character tiers for LoL it's probably like this...

Face of the game tier: Ashe, Ryze, Katarina, Garen, Master Yi (Annie would go here if she had any strength at all but something tells me she wouldn't)

Most popular tier: Sona, Jax, Shen (possibly the strongest LoL character before rallies), Graves, Ezreal

Strong Fanbases tier: Mordekaiser, Anivia, Wukong (dat china vote would be beyond the pale), Lee Sin, Draven

Most other guys aren't even worth mentioning.
#423 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/12/2013 11:10:17 AM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
That zopharfaqs guy claims in his blog that he is responsible for the failed stuffing attempt for Tidus.


Probably an attention whore.
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#424 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 11:10:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
And we've got a new champion for closest non 1v1 Wire-to-Wire matches, don't we?

Edit: Though I'd probably prefer measuring it by percentage. Terrible votals shouldn't ensure list placement ;-;


You might have a point there, but when exactly do you start counting the percentage gap?
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#425 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 11:10:59 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I'd vote for Red over Mario any day of the week unless it's Brawl Red maybe since that joker isn't the same Red to me.


You may be unique in this. Red could be noticeably stronger with an RBY picture instead of a Brawl picture, but his Brawl baseline still may be very similar to Zelda's. Assuming Red's worth a good 52% or so on Ocelot in a 24 hour match and using Auron/Ocelot from this year, even accounting for some fanbase splitting from Roxas, Red's proportion to Ocelot makes him worth a comparable score on Auron as Zelda.

Not quite at Zelda's level, but if Red can resist SFF he'd definitely be worth more than an SFFed Zelda.

This also would mean that Mega Man X is a bit stronger than Mega Man. It also would mean Captain John Price is surprisingly strong (at least in 2010), something that tempers this theory quite a bit.
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#426 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 11:11:39 AM | message detail
I still think whoever vote-stuffed Tidus was one or several Board 8ers.
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#427 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/12/2013 11:12:42 AM | message detail
votestuffer cirno guy is one of Luster's many, many, many alts. He uses Luster's SkyNet poll allocation software to spread his stuffed votes into many empty IP addresses
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#428 | voltch | Posted 8/12/2013 11:13:02 AM | message detail
Morde es numero uno and Cirno is the strongest are the same thing.
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#429 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/12/2013 11:14:27 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
voltch posted...
George Romero where are you?


Revving up the engines for Draven's match obv, did no one tell you?

(Incidentally, gonna use this nice boring match to get the planning train for that started. I hope Draven can put on a great show come match time)


You need a plan to post a topic on the LoL subreddit that will get 1000 votes max? Also, why are you bothering to post about it in this topic? Are you expecting people to comment on how "edgy" and "cool" you are?

Typical LoL fanboy. Can't wait until my boyz X and Ryu roflstomp the latest broken hero that further proves Riot couldn't balance their way out of a paper bag.
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#430 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/12/2013 11:15:54 AM | message detail
Red is Red. His Brawl and R/B/Y models look exactly the same. It's not like people don't recognize the Brawl model and say "who is that guy and where is my waifu Red"
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#431 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/12/2013 11:16:21 AM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
That zopharfaqs guy claims in his blog that he is responsible for the failed stuffing attempt for Tidus.


If he can't use it anymore I hope he reveals what he's doing. It's strange how the poll (supposedly) goes unstuffed for 8 years straight and then some touhou guy comes along and does it in back to back days.
Thats if he is the touhou stuffer and not someone from this thread trying to take credit for everything.
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#432 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 11:17:07 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Throw Guybrush in there and I think he'd win that match.

e: I meant the Tidus/MC/DK/Magus clustersuck.

Clustersuck, I like that - I'll be sure to steal that from you in the future! :)
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#433 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 11:18:41 AM | message detail | (edited)
Oh, right, that theory also means that Ocelot had a particularly big boost from being the primary villain of Metal Gear Solid 4 that came from the majority of the game's copies being sold and people actually playing the game rather than hype/early release stuff that probably mattered more for Solid/Big Boss/Liquid, which also accounts for Liquid's fall off in the next contest. Ocelot's boost came in 2010 by this metric and was covered by Link/Mega Man X SFF.

Edit: Also - if you haven't figured it out - this isn't very likely.
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#434 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 8/12/2013 11:18:52 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I told you guys ExTha is a Missingno spy, he's gonna show him true colors next round!


Or I'm just a horrendous jinx, and Missingno's doomed!


I hear you need a jinx
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#435 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 11:20:00 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
You need a plan to post a topic on the LoL subreddit that will get 1000 votes max? Also, why are you bothering to post about it in this topic? Are you expecting people to comment on how "edgy" and "cool" you are?

Typical LoL fanboy. Can't wait until my boyz X and Ryu roflstomp the latest broken hero that further proves Riot couldn't balance their way out of a paper bag.

Well you could phrase it a bit nicer (which applies to most things you say, even the accurate ones), but yeah if that guy seriously guy Draven is going to do anything but get blasted and clowned he's in for a world of disappointment.
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#436 | swordz9 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:21:32 AM | message detail
They actually aren't the same design technically since Red's Brawl design is the remake Red design from Fire Red/Leaf Green and not the RBY Gen 1 design. I still don't think of them as the same though just like I don't think of Red and Ash as the same. People obviously seem to care about design for this contest too which explains why some characters do awful in certain rounds like Snake doing bad in sprite rounds or whatever.
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#437 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 11:22:16 AM | message detail
I can't wait for the beginning of the Ryu/X/Draven match. Draven's going to look f***ing horrible, probably so much so that nobody will even bother voting for him.

Hell, maybe the rallies for Draven will just funnel more votes for Ryu and X, especially if the latter two have a close match.
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#438 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:25:00 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.

http://i.imgur.com/cMj3QIA.png





I regret the work that went into this.
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#439 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 11:25:26 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
They actually aren't the same design technically since Red's Brawl design is the remake Red design from Fire Red/Leaf Green and not the RBY Gen 1 design. I still don't think of them as the same though just like I don't think of Red and Ash as the same. People obviously seem to care about design for this contest too which explains why some characters do awful in certain rounds like Snake doing bad in sprite rounds or whatever.


This is a possibility, but it's hardly comparable - it would be more appropriate to compare it to DMC2 Dante (which is a minor effect, if any) instead of Sprite Snake (who instead of possibly the #2 character in the contest becomes a high midcarder). Many wildly different character designs don't seem to have any effect at all - compare Solid Snake pictures with Old Snake pictures.
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#440 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 11:25:30 AM | message detail
Glitch Above Whatever
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#441 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 11:26:27 AM | message detail
Two cringes in 24 hours, I think we have a new record
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#442 | swordz9 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:27:06 AM | message detail
I figured there would be a better comparison. Anyways I'm not saying people will refuse to vote for Brawl Red or anything, but RBY Red pics will definitely trigger a lot more nostalgia imo.
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#443 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 11:29:32 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.

http://i.imgur.com/cMj3QIA.png





I regret the work that went into this.


I'm done.
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#444 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:29:38 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
shut up people

people are going to vote against lenneth valkyrie because she is the higher seed

lenneth valkyrie is going to recieve anti-votes for BEING TOO STRONG

Think about this:

Lenneth Valkyrie is going to receive BRACKET VOTES
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#445 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 11:30:49 AM | message detail
Hey, nothing you can say.

Nothing's gonna change wh65asjdf5$%^$41

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#446 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/12/2013 11:30:59 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
shut up people

people are going to vote against lenneth valkyrie because she is the higher seed

lenneth valkyrie is going to recieve anti-votes for BEING TOO STRONG

Think about this:

Lenneth Valkyrie is going to receive BRACKET VOTES


Lenneth's only other appearance was in 2006, right?
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#447 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 11:31:34 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Hey, nothing you can say.

Nothing's gonna change wh65asjdf5$%^$41


i love you guys
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#448 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 11:32:19 AM | message detail
The only thing I regret about that image is the admission that I can't read "the odds are stacked against" someone who is still probably going to make people miserable by winning anyway without thinking of that.
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#449 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 11:34:11 AM | message detail
missingno chance, that's what you've got
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#450 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 11:34:20 AM | message detail
RBY Picture Red could actually have a very high ceiling, which is why I'm very interested to see him this year. I don't really buy Blue > Red.

If you assume these things...

Auron 2013 = 48% on Auron 2010 (Roxas Split Adjustment)
Red 2013 = 52% on Ocelot 2010 (24 Hour Adjustment)
Ocelot 2010 = Ocelot 2013
RBY Red = 55% on Brawl Red (this would be ridiculously huge, but for discussion's sake)

RBY Red is worth 46.67% on Auron, about the tier of Sora and Kirby.
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