Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1106

#301 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/12/2013 10:08:56 AM | message detail
This is gonna be an interesting R2.

I'd still take Squall > Ammy without reservation but his R1 doesn't really look any better than hers... but I don't know by how much. MissingNo doesn't look that bad imo - he's the only one who had legitimate competition and had to deal with some minor LFF.
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#302 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 10:08:59 AM | message detail
I think there's an outside chance Missingno comes in third place next round.

Might be crazy, but I think there's a chance.
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#303 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:09:48 AM | message detail
I said none of this was rational!

From a rational standpoint you are absolutely correct and Squall should win this and it shouldn't be in any doubt! I know that!
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#304 | Sorozone | Posted 8/12/2013 10:10:12 AM | message detail
Lol Tidus, lol Missingno, lol stuffers.
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#305 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:10:15 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.


See, XIC?

NOW you can start calling Missingno the underdog.


the same people complaining now would be complaining then if Missingno won regardless of being an underdog or not


Not me. I hate Squall!
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#306 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:10:28 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.


See, XIC?

NOW you can start calling Missingno the underdog.


the same people complaining now would be complaining then if Missingno won regardless of being an underdog or not


What kind of a win are we talking about? If it's a clean significant victory I doubt people would be upset outside of the typical preferences there are in every match.

You're presuming too much.
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#307 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:10:37 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I think there's an outside chance Missingno comes in third place next round.

Might be crazy, but I think there's a chance.


Boy are you settin' yourself up to be depressed.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#308 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:10:46 AM | message detail
I told you guys ExTha is a Missingno spy, he's gonna show him true colors next round!
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~War~
#309 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:10:49 AM | message detail
Ammy's base strength was around 41% on Luigi in 2010, but it's probably a bit higher now with MvC3. What would Tidus get on Luigi? Surely not much more than what she'd get now.
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#310 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:11:34 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I told you guys ExTha is a Missingno spy, he's gonna show him true colors next round!


Or I'm just a horrendous jinx, and Missingno's doomed!
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#311 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:11:46 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Ammy's base strength was around 41% on Luigi in 2010, but it's probably a bit higher now with MvC3. What would Tidus get on Luigi? Surely not much more than what she'd get now.


Tidus is weaker than Amaterasu, I'd wager pretty solidly. Maybe not by much, but that's my inclination.
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#312 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 10:12:10 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Boy are you settin' yourself up to be depressed.


LeonhartFour posted...
That being said, I'll be paranoid about the match until the day it happens.


I'm just speaking from a purely hypothetical standpoint. If Missingno is static and not just fluctuating like crazy, it's probably not much stronger than Amaterasu.

I don't expect it to happen. That's why I said it's an outside chance, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if it did.
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#313 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/12/2013 10:13:06 AM | message detail
Very good chance Missingno finishes last, not really sure why needing a rally to beat Tidus by 23 votes puts you in a good position against a strong looking Ammy.
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#314 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:13:22 AM | message detail
Ammy (and Okami, really) has done pretty well nearly every match, while Tidus tends to fall on his face, so I'd take Ammy easily.

That said, none of that matters because Missingno never makes sense.
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#315 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:13:33 AM | message detail
Guys what if FFX HD hype boosted Tidus and Yuna?

Squall is so screwed.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#316 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 10:14:35 AM | message detail
Yuna didn't really look much stronger. Chief's just not very good anymore!

(I know you're being facetious with that post, but still)
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#317 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:15:00 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Guys what if FFX HD hype boosted Tidus and Yuna?

Squall is so screwed.


Ammy MvC boost
Missingno Pokemon hype boost
Ammy>Missingno>Squall confirmed
#318 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:16:24 AM | message detail | (edited)
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Ammy (and Okami, really) has done pretty well nearly every match, while Tidus tends to fall on his face, so I'd take Ammy easily.

That said, none of that matters because Missingno never makes sense.


It really hasn't had a lot of matches to judge that by.

Look, I'll use Frog. 50% on Liquid Snake. 50% on Master Chief. 49% on Solid Snake. 52% on Riku.

This is eerily similar to what Missingno has done up to now. It could just as easily follow the next stage in the pattern - getting blown the hell out and embarrassed beyond all redemption.
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#319 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 10:15:55 AM | message detail
Also, does anyone still feel good about ? Block beating Rikku?

Can't see the Block being stronger than Missingno, and Rikku has shown in the past that she's right around Tidus level herself.

I guess ? Block's one advantage is that this is technically its first contest appearance, so it could be artificially boosted by it or something.
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#320 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:15:57 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Guys what if FFX HD hype boosted Tidus and Yuna?

Squall is so screwed.


Ammy MvC boost
Missingno Pokemon hype boost
Ammy>Missingno>Squall confirmed


DogFAQs > GlitchFAQs > Squall

best match ever
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#321 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 10:16:20 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
That said, none of that matters because Missingno never makes sense.

We need a Missingno vs. Kefka bonus poll.
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#322 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:16:50 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, does anyone still feel good about ? Block beating Rikku?

Can't see the Block being stronger than Missingno, and Rikku has shown in the past that she's right around Tidus level herself.

I guess ? Block's one advantage is that this is technically its first contest appearance, so it could be artificially boosted by it or something.


Rikku has that one wrapped up as far as I'm concerned. No way ? Block is stronger than Missingno and it's coming up right after WCC. People will be tired of 'herp derp vote for non-characters' by that point. Plus Rikku's TJF
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#323 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:17:12 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
That said, none of that matters because Missingno never makes sense.

We need a Missingno vs. Kefka bonus poll.


Oh my god.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#324 | tgs2 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:17:46 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, does anyone still feel good about ? Block beating Rikku?

Can't see the Block being stronger than Missingno, and Rikku has shown in the past that she's right around Tidus level herself.

I guess ? Block's one advantage is that this is technically its first contest appearance, so it could be artificially boosted by it or something.


Lyn is there though so ?-block is going to have to be a bit stronger than Missingno.
#325 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:18:07 AM | message detail
I am just realizing that Weighted Companion Cube vs. Claptrap vs. Lenneth is a match that is going to happen.
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~War~
#326 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:18:29 AM | message detail
Oh god Missingno won?
I didn't even move a single place in the expert leaderboard
So much for obvious winner
#327 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:19:23 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Oh god Missingno won?
I didn't even move a single place in the expert leaderboard
So much for obvious winner


I remember when this happened on the bracket (well, only) leaderboard for Frog/Master Chief.

7 votes. Zero movement.
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#328 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:20:10 AM | message detail
Lenneth goddamn Valkyrie is a 5 seed.
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#329 | Whupassman | Posted 8/12/2013 10:20:25 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I told you guys ExTha is a Missingno spy, he's gonna show him true colors next round!


Or I'm just a horrendous jinx, and Missingno's doomed!


Hey, EXTHA may support Arsenal but he is NOT a spy!
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#330 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:20:36 AM | message detail
HOW?

I am having a mental breakdown from this.

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~War~
#331 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/12/2013 10:20:52 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Lenneth goddamn Valkyrie is a 5 seed.


Bracket buster confirmed?
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#332 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:22:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
And we've got a new champion for closest non 1v1 Wire-to-Wire matches, don't we?

Edit: Though I'd probably prefer measuring it by percentage. Terrible votals shouldn't ensure list placement ;-;
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#333 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:21:16 AM | message detail
What do you think, Silmeria?
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#334 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:22:00 AM | message detail
Come to me, my mighty Einherjar!
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~War~
#335 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:23:36 AM | message detail
Nibelung Valesti!
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~War~
#336 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:24:05 AM | message detail
help
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~War~
#337 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/12/2013 10:25:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
Also, Tidus and Fox have to be the two unluckiest characters WRT bracket placement. Tidus's last win was way back in 2005 and Fox just keeps running into Nintendo.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#338 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:25:50 AM | message detail
Lenneth Valkyrie got a 5 seed and Jecht couldn't even get in.
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#339 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:26:36 AM | message detail
Lenneth GOD DAMN VALKYRIE
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~War~
#340 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:27:07 AM | message detail
why don't you love me mother
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~War~
#341 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:27:15 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Also, Tidus and Fox have to be the two unluckiest characters WRT bracket placement.


Eh... Fox a bit moreso. Tidus has had a decent number of winnable matches that he dropped (not counting this, which is more like a Samus/Tifa affair in how unexpected it was). He hasn't really won a good once since Shadow.

Fox keeps getting SFF blasted or just outright crippled by his own team member. Fox/Blue/Something Neutral is a match with the potential to be as close as this one if Bacon doesn't screw that up.
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#342 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:28:42 AM | message detail
shut up people

people are going to vote against lenneth valkyrie because she is the higher seed

lenneth valkyrie is going to recieve anti-votes for BEING TOO STRONG

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~War~
#343 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/12/2013 10:29:00 AM | message detail
Meta Knight has probably gotten screwed more than anyone. He could be extremely dangerous if he was put around people his level in a bracket.

Instead he runs into characters completely out of his league or other Nintendo characters every year in the first round.
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#344 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:29:20 AM | message detail
I'm not sure this is a real thing War
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#345 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 10:29:43 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
HOW?

I am having a mental breakdown from this.


Should've been Arngrim.

IngmarBirdman posted...
This is gonna be an interesting R2.

I'd still take Squall > Ammy without reservation but his R1 doesn't really look any better than hers... but I don't know by how much. MissingNo doesn't look that bad imo - he's the only one who had legitimate competition and had to deal with some minor LFF.


This is a jokepost right

Squall's 65% is excellent considering his competition. Going by the last set of Xstats we have on Rayman and Vyse, they're pretty much directly comparable (Vyse is like one point better or so), but Vyse has every reason to freefall from his last appearance (where he had a MASSIVE AND CONVINCING 12% on BL already!) unless you think he roided from Sega All-Stars Racing, while Rayman has every reason to have gone UP because he finally got games again in Legends and Origins. Squall laid down the hammer on a stronger opponent than Amaterasu, his votals were excellent in spite of being in a night match, and he has so much pedigree (excuse the pun) that there is no reason to assume he's not gonna dismantle Round 2. Yes, the impossible could happen and Squall could drop it thanks to lolvotals, but until it happens he should be the favorite, and deservedly so.
#346 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:29:47 AM | message detail
it's like I'm eternally watching a browns game
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~War~
#347 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/12/2013 10:30:20 AM | message detail
Nice to see Board 8 lose their s*** over a joke character yet again.

I wonder how many of you guys cheated for Tidus.
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#348 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:30:41 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Meta Knight has probably gotten screwed more than anyone. He could be extremely dangerous if he was put around people his level in a bracket.

Instead he runs into characters completely out of his league or other Nintendo characters every year in the first round.


Meta Knight hasn't even been around long enough to qualify for that, and he's still put down equally matched opposition when he needed to. Peach, anyone?
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#349 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:30:45 AM | message detail
i mean i see the bracket and i realize it's there

but my brain refuses to believe

i know it looks like a bracket but it can't be one

it's too stupid to exist

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~War~
#350 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 10:31:09 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
it's like I'm eternally watching a browns game


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