Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1106

#251 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/12/2013 9:36:26 AM | message detail
KP I don't think you're grasping that stuffers are, generally, going to be pretty weird people. Kefka fans, Touhou fans, Link fans.
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#252 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:37:28 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Why? Tidus isn't going to have people stuffing for him effectively. He's a mainstream Square character that's easy to anti-vote. The best stuffers have are going to be the people for weird stuff like Touhou.


The best stuffers this contest has ever seen are Chrono Trigger fans.

Starcraft if we count that spike in the SSBM match.

That was the stuff of legends.
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#253 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 9:38:14 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Evading Allen really isn't that hard. Touhou fans literally waved thousands of stuffed votes in his face several times before he caught it.

Yeah, we know for a fact 500 stuffed votes for Cirno weren't removed.

Tricking Bacon ain't rocket science.
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#254 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:38:32 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Why? Tidus isn't going to have people stuffing for him effectively. He's a mainstream Square character that's easy to anti-vote. The best stuffers have are going to be the people for weird stuff like Touhou.


The best stuffers this contest has ever seen are Chrono Trigger fans.

Starcraft if we count that spike in the SSBM match.

That was the stuff of legends.


That's the s*** that got them caught, though, so they clearly aren't the best stuffers. Crono/Vincent II and Frog's matches were allowed to stand. Though there is Mario/Crono I as a counterexample.
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#255 | RPGlord95 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:38:38 AM | message detail
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones
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#256 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:40:03 AM | message detail
Is Mizno a reference to The Miz

Can someone possibly hate MissingNo. enough to seriously be comparing him to The Miz

That's just low
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#257 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/12/2013 9:40:29 AM | message detail
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all
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#258 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/12/2013 9:40:46 AM | message detail
though yes touhous are just as bad but that's irrelevant to my point
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#259 | Whupassman | Posted 8/12/2013 9:40:57 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Is Mizno a reference to The Miz

Can someone possibly hate MissingNo. enough to seriously be comparing him to The Miz

That's just low


Whoa, Whoa... Comparing anyone to the Miz will get a pint glass wrapped round your head in certain circles...
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#260 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:41:10 AM | message detail
Well, yeah, it wasn't the best in terms of staying under the radar. But it was so extraordinary that I feel it has to be given some serious credit.

I remember watching that update. I had to blink a few times and check the updater.

And then all the talk of, "Guys the match was mentioned on TV!"
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#261 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:41:22 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all


Uh, if you're posting in the GameFAQs Contest Stats and Discussion Part 1106 topic, you're weird on some level
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#262 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 9:41:24 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Is Mizno a reference to The Miz

Can someone possibly hate MissingNo. enough to seriously be comparing him to The Miz

That's just low


Nah, that's just how Ngamer refers to Missingno to make it one less syllable.
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#263 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/12/2013 9:41:41 AM | message detail
Well then. Guess Missingno's screwed next round...
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#264 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:41:43 AM | message detail
I thought Mizno was a reference to Ngamer's usual butchering of names.
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#265 | Whupassman | Posted 8/12/2013 9:43:10 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all


Uh, if you're posting in the GameFAQs Contest Stats and Discussion Part 1106 topic, you're weird on some level


Pot. Kettle.
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#266 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/12/2013 9:43:17 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all


Uh, if you're posting in the GameFAQs Contest Stats and Discussion Part 1106 topic, you're weird on some level


Well yeah, but there's good weird and then there's weird. Example: Rad Link 5 is weird. GuessMyUserName is weird.
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#267 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/12/2013 9:43:26 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Starcraft if we count that spike in the SSBM match.

That was the stuff of legends.


The insane comeback in this poll is very reminiscent of the Starcraft spike in the SSBM match:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdEM5MUk3eF8zTG5Ob1BUalNoLW5tRFE

Granted, the insane comeback was caused by a rally instead of vote stuffing. At 12:40 PM, the "Absolutely not" option had a 1913 vote lead. Then there was an insane flood of incoming votes from a Reddit rally that caused the "Yes" option to pull off a comeback in about 40 minutes. The cells highlighted in blue show the time periods where the "Yes" option was being rallied, as evidenced by the spike in vote totals.
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#268 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 9:43:53 AM | message detail
The most blatant stuffing we've ever seen is, IIRC, Crono vs. Vincent 2. If they didn't overturn THAT, they aren't overturning much. I mean that stuffing was otherworldly.

I think if they can't bother to find stuffing during a match, they will never overturn it after the match is finished.

Regaro_Ukiera posted...
lol x-stats

No one cares about multi-way x-stats. They are for amusement purposes only.
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#269 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:44:20 AM | message detail
Like, people thought Missingno's strength would just keep holding up in the last contest - and to an extent it does, which is why he's nonlinear - but eventually strength becomes just way way way too much. Especially if you hit your roadblock early: imagine if L Block had Link and Cloud in round 2?

This is pretty much the same principle. Squall is wayyyyy too big of a jump from Tidus, and DogFAQs isn't quite on that level to drag him down (not to mention the fanbases are about as dissimilar as they could be, she could hurt Missingno by that logic).
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#270 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:44:42 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all


Uh, if you're posting in the GameFAQs Contest Stats and Discussion Part 1106 topic, you're weird on some level


Well yeah, but there's good weird and then there's weird. Example: Rad Link 5 is weird. GuessMyUserName is weird.

Why don't you just marry GMUN if you-




Oh wait is italicized weird the bad weird
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#271 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:45:48 AM | message detail
Whupassman posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all


Uh, if you're posting in the GameFAQs Contest Stats and Discussion Part 1106 topic, you're weird on some level


Pot. Kettle.


...
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#272 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 9:46:25 AM | message detail
Trend chart from yesterday:

Time | Ammy | Vyse | Adol | Votes
0:05 | 67.72% | 24.05% | 8.23% | 316
1:00 | 66.91% | 21.62% | 11.47% | 4125
2:00 | 66.22% | 20.88% | 12.90% | 2993
3:00 | 66.59% | 20.57% | 12.84% | 2679
4:00 | 68.00% | 19.92% | 12.08% | 2400
5:00 | 67.15% | 20.75% | 12.10% | 2149
6:00 | 65.08% | 20.62% | 14.30% | 1979
7:00 | 70.29% | 17.90% | 11.81% | 1804
8:00 | 64.42% | 21.79% | 13.80% | 1689
9:00 | 67.31% | 20.32% | 12.38% | 1511
10:00 | 66.99% | 20.77% | 12.24% | 1454
11:00 | 66.11% | 20.33% | 13.55% | 1446
12:00 | 66.18% | 20.19% | 13.63% | 1357

Aside from a random 70% hour from Ammy, nothing special here.

X-Stats:

Amaterasu – 50.00%
Vyse – 23.56%
Adol Christin – 15.89%

Amaterasu's prediction percentage was 82.10%
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#273 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:47:01 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Squall has this but I'm not overly confident about it, and not just because weird stuff can happen with jokes.
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#274 | KommunistKoala | Posted 8/12/2013 9:48:13 AM | message detail
Wow some people in this topic are so pathetic and I'm not talking about charon
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#275 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 9:48:16 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Whupassman posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
RPGlord95 posted...
XIII on weird people - "everyone that doesn't like what I like"

Lol lumpings touhous with jrpg and nintendrones


What? No. Stuffers are generally going to be weird. No matter if you like the same stuff as I do or not, if you vote stuff in polls, chances are you're weird. I don't think KP saying "the best stuffers are people who like weird stuff" holds up, that's all


Uh, if you're posting in the GameFAQs Contest Stats and Discussion Part 1106 topic, you're weird on some level


Pot. Kettle.


...


God dammit I wish I thought of this.

It is a 'KH is black' joke
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#276 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:48:48 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
I'm pretty sure Squall has this but I'm not overly confident about it, and not just because weird stuff can happen with jokes.


Well yeah, even though Sephiroth overwhelmed Missingno with pure strength it only ended up a 53-47 affair. The result was never in doubt once the match got going for a bit, but it was still interesting from that X factor. A Missingno a little stronger could have won.

But he's just too weak now. There is a ridiculous comparison in beating Tidus by less than you beat Crono.
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#277 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:49:20 AM | message detail
That's like the pot calling the kettle a racial slur.
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#278 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 9:49:26 AM | message detail
If it matters at all, I think Ammy being there helps Squall. A likable character should help split the Squall/FF anti-votes.
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#279 | Kinglicious | Posted 8/12/2013 9:51:04 AM | message detail
Percentage isn't the number to look at here, it's raw votes. A joke's strength is by how solid the block is and next round isn't going to make any inroads.

And Brett, you're actually saying that the mainstream character of a Square game, as opposed to the mainstream glitch of a Nintendo game, both of which are highly played on gamefaqs, will have people cheat less effectively despite a 2:1 ratio. For sake of ease of let's use numbers and assume that this is true and it's a notable gap.

2000 tidus cheaters to 1000 missingno ones.
Say 50% of tidus cheaters suck at it and only 25% of missingno ones suck at it.
1000 vs 750.

Tidus would still be ahead. You are suggesting something that doesn't make sense from its basic premise (both mainstream) or from a basic logical breakdown of what the rate would mean even if you were right. You would need a ridiculous proportion to work your logic.
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#280 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:51:59 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
If it matters at all, I think Ammy being there helps Squall. A likable character should help split the Squall/FF anti-votes.


Ehhhhhh... I think it goes both ways. Amaterasu is a more neutral option for Missingno anti-votes, who is obviously getting anti-voted now (and probably even more next round). I think this is gonna be mostly Squall strength.
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#281 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 9:53:30 AM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Missingno | Tidus | Banjo | Votes
0:05 | 46.74% | 33.91% | 19.35% | 522
1:00 | 43.43% | 37.69% | 18.88% | 5598
2:00 | 40.58% | 39.18% | 20.24% | 3078
3:00 | 40.71% | 40.10% | 19.20% | 2292
4:00 | 39.15% | 41.59% | 19.25% | 1844
5:00 | 38.92% | 43.00% | 18.08% | 1593
6:00 | 37.88% | 43.04% | 19.08% | 1436
7:00 | 37.22% | 43.94% | 18.84% | 1518
8:00 | 40.41% | 41.97% | 17.61% | 1987
9:00 | 39.17% | 42.27% | 18.56% | 2101
10:00 | 39.81% | 41.25% | 18.94% | 2291
11:00 | 39.18% | 40.54% | 20.27% | 2353
12:00 | 43.24% | 39.43% | 17.33% | 2412

X-Stats:

Missingno – 50.00%
Tidus – 49.95%
Banjo – 31.79%

Missingno's prediction percentage was 44.02%
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#282 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:54:47 AM | message detail
Well, yeah, the reason I'm pretty sure Squall wins is because it's just too much strength compared to Tidus after only one round.

But I just get nervous when it comes to matches with joke characters so I rarely can consider myself confident.
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#283 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 9:55:58 AM | message detail
Don't worry too much charon, even if the glitch gets through Squall and Ammy, he'll have Red to contend with in the div. finals and he aint getting past Mario with that anchor dragging him down.
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#284 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 9:56:33 AM | message detail
Sorry ExTha can't hear you over all this Cecil to round 3!
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#285 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 9:58:03 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Well, yeah, the reason I'm pretty sure Squall wins is because it's just too much strength compared to Tidus after only one round.

But I just get nervous when it comes to matches with joke characters so I rarely can consider myself confident.


People said this with L Block too, but he folded. Lost to Crono in Round 2 and lost to Crono AND Pikachu in Round 3. Missingno is looking to be a LOT wimpier than even 2008 L Block, and unlike the other contests the second you fail to nab first you're out.

I mean, it could happen theoretically, and it'd be kind of funny to see s*** like Tidus equal to Squall and Mario, but it's a theory built almost entirely on wishful thinking.
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#286 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 9:58:46 AM | message detail
I hope Squall crushes Missingno. It'll provide a little bit of catharsis.

That being said, I'll be paranoid about the match until the day it happens.
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#287 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 9:59:31 AM | message detail
I never said my being nervous about it was rational!
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#288 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/12/2013 10:00:20 AM | message detail
Oh hey, I just looked at today's match for the first time.

Huh, Wario actually looking somewhat impressive.

Not that it matters. He's destined for dead last next round anyway.
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#289 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 10:00:56 AM | message detail
Hey, guys. I found one of those ever-suspicious sub-1 percentages.

Indonesia:
Missingno. 26.19%
Tidus 73.02%
Banjo 0.79%

Evidence of minor Tidus stuffing in Indonesia, or is Banjo just that weak? (the minimum number of votes there is 126, with just 1 going to Banjo and 92 of the remaining 125 going to Tidus.)
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#290 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:01:44 AM | message detail
I think deep down we know next round is going 40/37/23. The only question will be if the 37 is Missingno or Squall.
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#291 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:02:14 AM | message detail
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.
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#292 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/12/2013 10:02:50 AM | message detail
Prospect of an entertaining Round 2 match killed with Missingno winning, shame.
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#293 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:05:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I think deep down we know next round is going 40/37/23. The only question will be if the 37 is Missingno or Squall.

I'd be shocked if Missingno could somehow retain the same 40% against Squall/Amaterasu compared to Tidus/Banjo.

It's why I'm pretty sure Squall has got this!

But then I start wondering, "What if, against all reason, Banjo was holding Missingno back a little?" or "What if DogFAQs strikes again and Amaterasu overperforms and holds Squall back?"

okay maybe the latter seems a bit too far-fetched
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#294 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/12/2013 10:05:53 AM | message detail
Farfetch'd, you say?
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#295 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:07:02 AM | message detail
yes i saw that coming as i wrote it.

decided to leave it in >_>
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#296 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 10:07:40 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.


See, XIC?

NOW you can start calling Missingno the underdog.
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#297 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:07:51 AM | message detail
If Ammy really only gets 23 next round, I'm Cloystering myself away for the rest of the contest.
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#298 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 10:08:06 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I think deep down we know next round is going 40/37/23. The only question will be if the 37 is Missingno or Squall.

I'd be shocked if Missingno could somehow retain the same 40% against Squall/Amaterasu compared to Tidus/Banjo.

It's why I'm pretty sure Squall has got this!

But then I start wondering, "What if, against all reason, Banjo was holding Missingno back a little?" or "What if DogFAQs strikes again and Amaterasu overperforms and holds Squall back?"

okay maybe the latter seems a bit too far-fetched


Even giving Missingno every single one of Banjo's votes, it can't crack 60% on Tidus. That's still a fairly weak base strength to be going in against Squall.

It has to catch fire again and become stronger - not just a loyal block of votes, because it is going to lose support against a stronger character, like L does - but stronger, like it did between Crono and Sephiroth. If anything I'd say there's a better chance it'll be weaker as more people try to take it down, much like L Block.
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#299 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 10:08:40 AM | message detail
I find it odd that people are saying Crono is a good stuffer.

He tried to stuff vs. Mario - got outstuffed both times.

Tried to stuff vs.Missingno - got outstuffed again.

He "successfully" stuffed vs. Vincent, yet that stuffing was SO BAD it was preposterous. I'm still amazed that was allowed to stand. I mean I was rooting for Crono there, but that left a sour taste in my mouth, because that was as illegitimate as it gets.

Still can't believe that wasn't overturned.

So yeah...anyone thinking Ceej or Bacon have magic stuffing-detectors is being quite naive. Freakin' Cirno - CIRNO!! - stuffed 500 votes Bacon didn't remove, in a completely meaningless match, where he already had taken 1000 meaningless votes away.

Anyway, Frog is a good stuffer - Crono definitely is not. Either his stuffing atttempts fail (which is most of the time), or they are so horribly transparent it's pathetic (Vincent 2).

LeonhartFour posted...
Oh hey, I just looked at today's match for the first time.

Huh, Wario actually looking somewhat impressive.

Not that it matters. He's destined for dead last next round anyway.

This match was always gonna be how terrible Wario's opposition was going to be than Wario's own strength, though.
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#300 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/12/2013 10:08:53 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Putting it another way, look at L Block 2008. Its so called 'loyal static fanbase' gave it 31.81% in Round 1. Then 27.74% in Round 2. Finally, 24.4% in Round 3.

That's quite a bit of drop off, especially for fourways, and it could only barely manage to come in first once. In a poll with more options than this one.

Odds are stacked against Missingno.


See, XIC?

NOW you can start calling Missingno the underdog.


the same people complaining now would be complaining then if Missingno won regardless of being an underdog or not