Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1105

#1 | Osfan | Posted 8/12/2013 6:28:19 AM | message detail
"This is my story. It'll go the way I want it... or I'll end it here."


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
#2 | paulg235 | Posted 8/12/2013 6:30:42 AM | message detail
Missinglol
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#3 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/12/2013 6:31:10 AM | message detail
Ding dong the glitch is dead!
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POKEFEAR
#4 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/12/2013 6:31:40 AM | message detail
Die stale joke die.

...but I'm rooting for the Creeper tomorrow because lol Wario.
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#5 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/12/2013 6:42:04 AM | message detail
Hold on Missingno Ima let you finish but Tidus is from one of the best games of all time
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#6 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 6:56:59 AM | message detail
.I just thought of something.

..how bad are we gonna lose to the casuals if Tidus holds?
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#7 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/12/2013 6:57:48 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
.I just thought of something.

..how bad are we gonna lose to the casuals if Tidus holds?


Missingnumber is the higher seed, so I don't think it will be too bad.
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#8 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/12/2013 6:58:08 AM | message detail
I'd like to call this over, but this is just too close to merit being stated as such...
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#9 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 6:58:10 AM | message detail
lightsout06 posted...
Hold on Missingno Ima let you finish but Tidus is from one of the best games of all time


OF ALL TIME
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#10 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/12/2013 6:58:59 AM | message detail
Moar cuts MissingNo.
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SuperNiceDog won the Guru contest super nicely!
#11 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2013 6:59:17 AM | message detail
Match LXX: (3) Creeper vs. (16) Wario vs. (25) The King of All Cosmos

Previous Contest

Creeper – N/A
N/A

Wario – 2008
33.09% against Zack Fair, Cecil Harvey and Jade Curtiss
10.60% against Link, Zack Fair and Zidane Tribal

The King of All Cosmos – 2005
27.46% against Tidus

Analysis

I do not expect much out of Creeper, like I said with Steve Minecraft is just not that popular on GameFAQs despite being currently one of the most played games. I do feel Creeper will be stronger than Steve, he is one of the more popular and known enemies while Steve is just a user controlled avatar. Creeper is also more likely to get a joke rally. However considering how weak Steve turned out to be Creeper could be significantly stronger and I still do not see him matching up with Wario.

Wario’s true strength is a bit of a mystery, if he is not getting SFF he is benefitting from LFF and then you have his 2003 match. Wario was able to break 40% against Zack and while Cecil was in that match it did show that he had some strength. I always expected him to rank around Peach’s strength. Mario characters have looked decent so far this contest with even Waluigi getting around 40% on Raiden before benefitting from a rally.

The King was an internet meme back in 2005, but today the meme is not as popular. Katamari as a series has flourished since we last saw him, but I feel it will not match up with the strength he got for when it was a meme. The Prince of All Cosmos made an appearance for the 2007 contest and given how badly he performed then I do not see the King being much better today.

The King will likely get some support so he will not have a terrible performance. There is a chance that Creeper could flop so badly that he finishes in third, but I do not feel he is that weak. It is strange that Wario will so easily finish in first, but when you have a 243 character contest these things are bound to happen.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Wario > Creeper and The King of All Cosmos

charmander6000’s Prediction: Wario – 49.47%, Creeper – 32.77%, The King of All Cosmos – 17.76%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 55/68 Today's Picks: Missingno and Wario
#12 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/12/2013 6:59:44 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
I'd like to call this over, but this is just too close to merit being stated as such...


Teedus hasn't ran away with this yet, at least.
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#13 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 6:59:48 AM | message detail
Hmm, I'm still not liking Tidus' chances here due to joke "clutch" powers.

And are we still getting the quote round?

lightsout06 posted...
Hold on Missingno Ima let you finish but Tidus is from one of the best games of all time

LOL. And Bacon calls you a jackass.
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#14 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:00:14 AM | message detail
Banjoooooooooooooo
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#15 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:00:50 AM | message detail
I'd say Missingno is the favourite, a slight rally or even a slight trend change with North America waking up could be enough.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 55/68 Today's Picks: Missingno and Wario
#16 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/12/2013 7:00:53 AM | message detail
It just keeps happening.
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#17 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:03:24 AM | message detail
Squall wins even with Tidus there next round.
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#18 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 7:03:57 AM | message detail
I don't think Tidus is gonna pull it off though in seriousness.

:(
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#19 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:04:13 AM | message detail
C'mon Tidus, this is your last chance to build some kind of cushion before "rally" factor takes over
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#20 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:04:16 AM | message detail
Cali just sleep in today
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#21 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:04:52 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't like Tidus's chances if this stays close. And it's looking like it will.
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#22 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:05:52 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I don't think Tidus is gonna pull it off though in seriousness.

:(


History and brackets are against him, as I said earlier! But he does have the advantage of going up against a joke, which means the longer the match goes on, the worse it does relatively if "rallies" aren't fueling it.
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#23 | vcharon | Posted 8/12/2013 7:05:58 AM | message detail
Boy, I hope this just isn't another thing to add on to Tidus's choking resume. Then again, he's not really supposed to even be in this position so how disappointing is it if he does lose? I just dunno... obviously EXTREMELY disappointing but yeah.
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#24 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/12/2013 7:07:04 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
Boy, I hope this just isn't another thing to add on to Tidus's choking resume. Then again, he's not really supposed to even be in this position so how disappointing is it if he does lose? I just dunno... obviously EXTREMELY disappointing but yeah.


We'd have bitten hands off to get this position as is.

But after all of this, to come so close and then lose anyway.

Can't let it happen!
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#25 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:07:38 AM | message detail
I don't see how this match can be held against Tidus no matter what happens.
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#26 | creativename | Posted 8/12/2013 7:09:07 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
Boy, I hope this just isn't another thing to add on to Tidus's choking resume. Then again, he's not really supposed to even be in this position so how disappointing is it if he does lose? I just dunno... obviously EXTREMELY disappointing but yeah.

I don't think you can choke a match where virtually no one expected you to win, and where if you lose it will probably be due to shenanigans.
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#27 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/12/2013 7:09:09 AM | message detail
I wouldn't hold this match against Tidus, just because of who he's facing.
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#28 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:09:19 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
I don't see how this match can be held against Tidus no matter what happens.


Ulti will find a way @_@
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#29 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/12/2013 7:09:20 AM | message detail
Excellent match. Strange to see Tidus leading when Missingno debuted by breaking the Noble Nine...!

Maybe one day, Banjo will get a better set-up too.....
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#30 | vcharon | Posted 8/12/2013 7:09:51 AM | message detail
I hope Allen pledges to look into Missingno.'s votes.
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Still smilin'
:>
#31 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/12/2013 7:10:06 AM | message detail
Keep cutting...
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#32 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/12/2013 7:10:32 AM | message detail
Yeah, with classic platform characters like Spyro and Crash getting some redemption this year, it's just sad how Banjo keeps getting screwed over and over.
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#33 | xp1337 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:10:46 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
I hope Allen pledges to look into Missingno.'s votes.

I have a really hard time believing that happens unless it is beyond obvious, and even then I'd be nervous about it!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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#34 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/12/2013 7:10:52 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
I hope Allen pledges to look into Tidus's votes.


Fixed.
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#35 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/12/2013 7:10:54 AM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Excellent match. Strange to see Tidus leading when Missingno debuted by breaking the Noble Nine...!

Maybe one day, Banjo will get a better set-up too.....


I like Banjo as much as the next guy, but how many setups could he get that he could win, especially as the low seed?
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#36 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:11:23 AM | message detail
Tidus continuing to come back strong in North America, only 4 points down now. He's just gotta put it all together and get in a few good updates now. Stop the chipping! Something something story etc!
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#37 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/12/2013 7:12:14 AM | message detail
win some updates this maybe are last chance
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#38 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:12:16 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
vcharon posted...
Boy, I hope this just isn't another thing to add on to Tidus's choking resume. Then again, he's not really supposed to even be in this position so how disappointing is it if he does lose? I just dunno... obviously EXTREMELY disappointing but yeah.

I don't think you can choke a match where virtually no one expected you to win, and where if you lose it will probably be due to shenanigans.


lol
preemptive excuses?
#39 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:12:43 AM | message detail
Is anyone even bothering to rally Missingno?
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#40 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:13:09 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
creativename posted...
vcharon posted...
Boy, I hope this just isn't another thing to add on to Tidus's choking resume. Then again, he's not really supposed to even be in this position so how disappointing is it if he does lose? I just dunno... obviously EXTREMELY disappointing but yeah.

I don't think you can choke a match where virtually no one expected you to win, and where if you lose it will probably be due to shenanigans.


lol
preemptive excuses?


is this seriously serious

NoFunAllowedFAQs is much more fun than this
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#41 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:13:55 AM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
Is anyone even bothering to rally Missingno?


He's been rallied at least once so far this match that I can confirm.
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#42 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/12/2013 7:14:00 AM | message detail
What the hell?

STUFFING
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#43 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:14:26 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
What the hell?

STUFFING


IS

DELICIOUS
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#44 | vcharon | Posted 8/12/2013 7:14:35 AM | message detail
Suor when did you become an awful person.
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#45 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/12/2013 7:14:35 AM | message detail
Wrong quote KH. Need something like this instead:

"The Ace is on the mound!"

"Let's go! I'll take you on!"

"I'm going all out!"

"I'm coming out of this fight with a smile!"
#46 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/12/2013 7:14:58 AM | message detail
I'd say that's a small hiccup for now. Missingno dropped off a little bit while Tidus spiked.
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#47 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/12/2013 7:16:36 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
is this seriously serious

NoFunAllowedFAQs is much more fun than this


isn't that a bit of a contradiction, seeing as that's already happening
#48 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/12/2013 7:16:53 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
Suor when did you become an awful person.


I think you missed the part where I'm not really a fan of most FF characters.
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#49 | vcharon | Posted 8/12/2013 7:17:01 AM | message detail
FFX is a lot more fun than Pokemon, though.
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Still smilin'
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#50 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 7:17:21 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Wrong quote KH. Need something like this instead:

"The Ace is on the mound!"

"Let's go! I'll take you on!"

"I'm going all out!"

"I'm coming out of this fight with a smile!"


"Don't you run glitches!"

I don't think I'm doing this right
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