Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1104

#151 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:12:39 AM | message detail
Tidus dropped off a cliff the past two updates.
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#152 | LinkLegend27 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:13:40 AM | message detail
So is Squall > Missingno confirmed based off this match so far?
#153 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 8/12/2013 12:13:42 AM | message detail
#154 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:14:56 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Tidus dropped off a cliff the past two updates.


This is a canard that really needs to be put to rest, by the way - characters maintaining the same vote intake is much more suspicious as we enter the dead zone than crediting others dropping off. It's the dead zone, the votals are SUPPOSED to fall off a cliff right now.
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#155 | Lopen | Posted 8/12/2013 12:15:20 AM | message detail
Tidus actually has a lot of advantages Alucard didn't going into the night vote though

First off Banjo's also a day character so Tidus stands to gain more

Also Banjo's soaking up about 10% less of the vote than Rydia did.

I think he's got a good chance to make more of a move than Alucard did with it.
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#156 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 12:17:58 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
kinsho3 posted...
Tidus dropped off a cliff the past two updates.


This is a canard that really needs to be put to rest, by the way - characters maintaining the same vote intake is much more suspicious as we enter the dead zone than crediting others dropping off. It's the dead zone, the votals are SUPPOSED to fall off a cliff right now.


Yes, but the votals have already fallen off a cliff. The point was that Tidus's fell even lower for those two updates than he had been maintaining for the past hour and change. It evened out when followed by a spike for Tidus's biggest intake since 2:38.
#157 | Lopen | Posted 8/12/2013 12:19:15 AM | message detail
Well Banjo "fell off a cliff" for one of those updates too just for the record. It's just less glaring cause he only lost 10 votes.
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#158 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/12/2013 12:21:05 AM | message detail
more stalling
this match is getting tidius
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#159 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:21:27 AM | message detail
Banjo's already lying motionless at the bottom of the cliff. He doesn't have much further to fall.
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#160 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:23:29 AM | message detail | (edited)
The votals *haven't* really fallen off a cliff, though, not compared to what we usually see. This match is getting like 30-50% more votes in this timeframe as the last night match we had.

Now, maybe this is just a natural occurrence. Maybe.
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#161 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/12/2013 12:23:30 AM | message detail
LinkLegend27 posted...
So is Squall > Missingno confirmed based off this match so far?


I took Squall > Missingo in Round 2 since the entire bracket was released my friend! If Squall didn't get absolutely shafted by having to face Mario in Round 3 I would've had him gone farther. But Mario is just way beyond his ability
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NP: Missingno > Tidus > Banjo
#162 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:23:34 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...

This is a canard that really needs to be put to rest, by the way - characters maintaining the same vote intake is much more suspicious as we enter the dead zone than crediting others dropping off. It's the dead zone, the votals are SUPPOSED to fall off a cliff right now.


When a character goes from 70-80 votes per update to barely breaking 50 votes for two straight updates, that qualifies as going off the cliff for those updates.
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#163 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/12/2013 12:25:37 AM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
Banjo's already lying motionless at the bottom of the cliff. He doesn't have much further to fall.


Banjo-Kazooie 4: Meg Ryan's Revenge
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#164 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:25:42 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...

This is a canard that really needs to be put to rest, by the way - characters maintaining the same vote intake is much more suspicious as we enter the dead zone than crediting others dropping off. It's the dead zone, the votals are SUPPOSED to fall off a cliff right now.


When a character goes from 70-80 votes per update to barely breaking 50 votes for two straight updates, that qualifies as going off the cliff for those updates.


Okay, this point is clearly not connecting.
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#165 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 12:27:32 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The votals *haven't* really fallen off a cliff, though, not compared to what we usually see. This match is getting like 30-50% more votes in this timeframe as the last night match we had.

Now, maybe this is just a natural occurrence. Maybe.


Maybe it's just because we actually have popular characters here? Sure, Bajo's a nobody. But he's better than most of the fodder we've had so far. Tidus is fairly decent and votals in every Missingno match so far have been off the charts-even the Yoshi one. Our votals are similar at this point in the match to Link's R1 match, and that had SFF in it. I don't think this is suspicious. I think this is what we should expect as more popular characters become the norm going forward and the fodder has been weeded out.
#166 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:28:10 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...

Okay, this point is clearly not connecting.


And just like that, Tidus starts getting his 70-80 vote updates again. Looks like his votes really did fell off a cliff for a couple updates, eh?
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#167 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/12/2013 12:28:30 AM | message detail
Missingno's match against Yoshi had slightly better than average vote totals for day matches in that contest. It was the matches against Crono and Sephiroth that were off the charts.
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#168 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 12:30:12 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Missingno's match against Yoshi had slightly better than average vote totals for day matches in that contest. It was the matches against Crono and Sephiroth that were off the charts.


Missingno/Yoshi was an all-Nintendo match that still had one of the highest votals in its round, if I recall correctly. It may not have been as off the charts as the other two, but it was still surprisingly high.
#169 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:32:04 AM | message detail
It was pretty ridiculous how high the votals were for the Crono/Missingno match....good times....
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#170 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:32:43 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The votals *haven't* really fallen off a cliff, though, not compared to what we usually see. This match is getting like 30-50% more votes in this timeframe as the last night match we had.

Now, maybe this is just a natural occurrence. Maybe.


Maybe it's just because we actually have popular characters here? Sure, Bajo's a nobody. But he's better than most of the fodder we've had so far. Tidus is fairly decent and votals in every Missingno match so far have been off the charts-even the Yoshi one. Our votals are similar at this point in the match to Link's R1 match, and that had SFF in it. I don't think this is suspicious. I think this is what we should expect as more popular characters become the norm going forward and the fodder has been weeded out.


Comparing the votes to the Missingno matches is not helping you on the legitimacy front, seriously. Our votals have seriously tanked compared to the beginning of the contest, so making a comparison there is dubious at best. If higher votes become the norm with popular characters, sure, you might have a point, but if they take a nosedive back to the baseline (like in 2010) what then?
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#171 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 12:36:59 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The votals *haven't* really fallen off a cliff, though, not compared to what we usually see. This match is getting like 30-50% more votes in this timeframe as the last night match we had.

Now, maybe this is just a natural occurrence. Maybe.


Maybe it's just because we actually have popular characters here? Sure, Bajo's a nobody. But he's better than most of the fodder we've had so far. Tidus is fairly decent and votals in every Missingno match so far have been off the charts-even the Yoshi one. Our votals are similar at this point in the match to Link's R1 match, and that had SFF in it. I don't think this is suspicious. I think this is what we should expect as more popular characters become the norm going forward and the fodder has been weeded out.


Comparing the votes to the Missingno matches is not helping you on the legitimacy front, seriously. Our votals have seriously tanked compared to the beginning of the contest, so making a comparison there is dubious at best. If higher votes become the norm with popular characters, sure, you might have a point, but if they take a nosedive back to the baseline (like in 2010) what then?


Look, either all of Missingno's matches were cheating or none were. No one says cheating if you point out that Link matches have high votals because he brings in the votes. All I'm saying is that if Missingno has decent strength and a great nostalgia factor, he could bring in a lot of votes also. At least now we don't have just 1 match that's an aberration staring us in the face. We have all of Missingno's matches. There are two valid theories as to why it brings in high votals. I can't see any way to favor one over the other. But since we supposedly have some great anti-stuffing methods in place, I'll lean towards the less apocalyptic explanation for now.
#172 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:39:49 AM | message detail
Tidus already chopped off 50 votes from the lead. Hmm......I don't like this....
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#173 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:41:07 AM | message detail
Tidus laugh on the GFs frontpage if he wins please
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#174 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:41:19 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Look, either all of Missingno's matches were cheating or none were. No one says cheating if you point out that Link matches have high votals because he brings in the votes.


Not all of Link's matches have crazy high votals. Of course he has a larger sample size as well, but the point should still resonate - Crono/Missingno was the highest scoring 12 hour match of 2010 (and Seph/Missingno was ridiculous for a night match, too), and that should raise eyebrows.

All I'm saying is that if Missingno has decent strength and a great nostalgia factor, he could bring in a lot of votes also. At least now we don't have just 1 match that's an aberration staring us in the face. We have all of Missingno's matches.


Right, and his matches tell us that he is roughly equal to Crono, Yoshi, Sephiroth, and Tidus. There aren't a lot of good explanations for this. But more importantly...

But since we supposedly have some great anti-stuffing methods in place


what
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#175 | Lopen | Posted 8/12/2013 12:44:49 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Bacon couldn't find anything concrete to suggest stuffing in this match. I also wouldn't be surprised if there actually was stuffing in spite of that. I'll believe Bacon is anything other than a Touhou bully when I see it.
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#176 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/12/2013 12:45:01 AM | message detail
So, if Tidus wins, does Ammy have a chance next round?
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#177 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:46:44 AM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
So, if Tidus wins, does Ammy have a chance next round?


I wouldn't call it nonzero, but Squall/Tidus was horrifyingly brutal 1v1, and it only promises to be worse if Squall needs to harvest Tidus's votes to win.
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#178 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 12:47:06 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
But since we supposedly have some great anti-stuffing methods in place


what


Maybe they've been lazy for almost a decade, but there's a reason we haven't had votes removed for stuffing in a really, really long time. Sure, people do it. But I keep seeing posts about how difficult it is to stuff here. So, even with some people getting busted this tournament, when we get a post telling us a match result was a legit rally, I'm more than inclined to believe it.
#179 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/12/2013 12:47:29 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I wouldn't be surprised if Bacon couldn't find anything concrete to suggest stuffing in this match. I also wouldn't be surprised if there actually was stuffing in spite of that. I'll believe Bacon is anything other than a Touhou bully when I see it.


what would even be the point of being a "Touhou bully"

that's about as much of an accomplishment as bullying a paraplegic
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#180 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 12:50:10 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
But since we supposedly have some great anti-stuffing methods in place


what


Maybe they've been lazy for almost a decade, but there's a reason we haven't had votes removed for stuffing in a really, really long time. Sure, people do it. But I keep seeing posts about how difficult it is to stuff here. So, even with some people getting busted this tournament, when we get a post telling us a match result was a legit rally, I'm more than inclined to believe it.


I think I have to keep repeating it because I can scarcely believe it myself.

Guybrush Threepwood got votes removed for stuffing.

Someone bothered to stuff votes. In a Guybrush match. And initially got through.

Who the hell knows what the potential is in matches people actually care about.
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#181 | Lopen | Posted 8/12/2013 12:53:54 AM | message detail | (edited)
Masato_Tanaka posted...

what would even be the point of being a "Touhou bully"

that's about as much of an accomplishment as bullying a paraplegic


Or being a GameFAQs administrator, but I digress.

Guybrush had stuffed votes removed? When?

Oh my god he did and it still wasn't enough for Max to win what.
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#182 | MZero11 | Posted 8/12/2013 12:57:29 AM | message detail
GO TIDUS

Mah boi
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#183 | Lopen | Posted 8/12/2013 12:59:06 AM | message detail
Dat boy just got hit wit da... wit da blitz ace... wit da Jecht Shot Mark 26
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#184 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/12/2013 1:00:10 AM | message detail
I wouldn't put anything past those dastardly Monkey Island fans. Sticking us with Guybrush all this time, that Mario 3 match, them getting Guybrush to actually win, stuffing votes...they've done a lot of wicked things over the years.
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#185 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:01:01 AM | message detail
And yeah this discussion kind of tore me away from the fact that Tidus is really starting to tear into Missingno's ass... approximation right now. No way Missingno wins this hour, just remains to be seen how much.

Still don't really believe in Tidus, but he's going now.
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#186 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:01:44 AM | message detail
That's a big cut from Tidus
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#187 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/12/2013 1:04:04 AM | message detail
I'm not letting myself get caught up in any potential comeback hype, because I just know the stuffers will arrive in full force to save the dumb glitch.
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#188 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:04:18 AM | message detail
Tidus +45 for the hour. Obviously a good show, but he needs to pick up the pace given that the TDZ ain't gonna last forever.
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#189 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/12/2013 1:23:40 AM | message detail
LOL

Huge Missingno spike this late into the night vote.
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#190 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:26:22 AM | message detail
What a non-suspicious spike from Missingno...

Move along, now, everyone. Nothing to see here.
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#191 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 1:26:23 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
LOL

Huge Missingno spike this late into the night vote.


Meh. It was honestly the reverse update of Tidus's big cut 25 minutes ago. It was a 10-vote spike combined with a slight lull from Tidus.

One of the first things we learned tracking updates was not to overreact to individual updates. Spikes happen, lulls happen, and they even out over time.
#192 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 1:29:25 AM | message detail
See, massive Missingno spike followed by a massive lull and Tidus spiked after his lull. The 10-minute averages for each were normal. Nothing suspicious here, just Board 8 overreacting to 5 minutes as usual.
#193 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/12/2013 1:29:39 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
LOL

Huge Missingno spike this late into the night vote.


Meh. It was honestly the reverse update of Tidus's big cut 25 minutes ago. It was a 10-vote spike combined with a slight lull from Tidus.

One of the first things we learned tracking updates was not to overreact to individual updates. Spikes happen, lulls happen, and they even out over time.


It was Missingno's highest percentage update of the entire match, garnering over 50% of the vote. It's a 70 vote update at 4:23 EST, in the middle of the Final Fantasy TDZ.

Just saying.
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#194 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:29:49 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
One of the first things we learned tracking updates was not to overreact to individual updates. Spikes happen, lulls happen, and they even out over time.


Actually, now that you point it out, Tidus did suffer a lull that same update. He went from getting between 50-60 votes for the past three updates to getting just 42 for that most recent update.
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#195 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 1:32:39 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
LOL

Huge Missingno spike this late into the night vote.


Meh. It was honestly the reverse update of Tidus's big cut 25 minutes ago. It was a 10-vote spike combined with a slight lull from Tidus.

One of the first things we learned tracking updates was not to overreact to individual updates. Spikes happen, lulls happen, and they even out over time.


It was Missingno's highest percentage update of the entire match, garnering over 50% of the vote. It's a 70 vote update at 4:23 EST, in the middle of the Final Fantasy TDZ.

Just saying.


Yes, when you combine a decently large spike with a decently large lull and such small votals you'll have weird % swings in 5-minute time-frames. Or do you think Tidus stuffed back in the next 5 minutes? Or maybe it was just a spike and a lull and it evens out over time.
#196 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:34:45 AM | message detail
If Missingno can stall this out until sunrise here in the States, I think the morning will be kinder to him than it was to Falcon....
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#197 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/12/2013 1:43:39 AM | message detail
300-vote barrier shattered
#198 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/12/2013 1:44:47 AM | message detail
Monster 54%+ update there
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#199 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/12/2013 1:47:29 AM | message detail
Honestly if Allen is just a "Touhou bully" that would be amazing

Screw Draven stuffing. Give Touhou *nothing*.
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#200 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/12/2013 1:51:38 AM | message detail
The kiddies are sleeping.

A great chance for Tidus to make a comeback.
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