Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1103

#151 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/11/2013 11:02:16 AM | message detail
Ammy's percentage is going to be one the top 10 highest in round one, above multiple Noble Niners'. This pleases me. It also makes me scared about just how weak Vyse and Adol actually are, but that's for another day.
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#152 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/11/2013 11:03:26 AM | message detail
No. What you guys are saying is just untenable. Either you're saying that Mario actually RSSFed Link in 2002 and that the beatdown should have been much worse or that Sephiroth would have 55/45d Link had they met in 2003 (depending on how much you think Link SFFed Mario in 2002), a complete reversal of the 2002 result. Neither of those makes any sense at all.
#153 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/11/2013 11:06:34 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Oh, and if FF7 can ever shake these antivotes one day and get up to a more nostalgic level (like Old Square seems to), it might see a bit of a resurgence.


Yeah but FF7 always wins so we've got to keep antivoting it to upset the status quo and give that underdog Link his day in the sun.

</most of GameFAQs>

The Link dominance is one character. Zelda and Ganondorf aren't particularly strong. But anyone with any FFVII connection is going to do really well in this tournament based on that alone. Link may be as deserving of antivotes as any FFVII character, but the FFVII game as a whole is more annoying because it encompasses so many characters and they're all so overpowered.
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#154 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:07:33 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Marco: My.. mother... and father... were both killed by Valuan soldiers while they were trying to escape from this city! There's no way out! Trying to get through the Grand Fortress... it's impossible!

Vyse: IMPOSSIBLE IS JUST A WORD TO LET PEOPLE FEEL GOOD ABOUT THEMSELVES WHEN THEY QUIT


All my hype

You're making me want to replay Skies of Arcadia
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#155 | pjbasis | Posted 8/11/2013 11:10:28 AM | message detail
I like Sept as much as the next day but he wouldn't beat Samus or Mario bro.

Didn't Samus put up almost Snake numbers on Cloud in 2010?
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#156 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/11/2013 11:10:36 AM | message detail
re: today's match

Isn't his name Vyse the Legend, technically?
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#157 | Sorozone | Posted 8/11/2013 11:12:07 AM | message detail
#158 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:14:05 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
That match is so frustrating. If it had been anyone but frigging Vincent there, Sephiroth has a great shot at upending Link.


Honestly, I'm not sure if Vincent being there didn't help Sephiroth out a bit. SmartVoterFAQs led to FFVII fans throwing all their eggs in Sephiroth's basket to see if he could beat Link. Sephiroth doesn't normally abuse Vincent that badly, as we saw in 2010.

Could be wrong though.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1363

And this is honestly still one of the most impressive results we've ever had in this contest, even if 2003 Mario is a step down from where he is now and he was probably feeling a bit of backlash from Mario/Crono II. He beat friggin' Mario by 30,000 votes without SFF. That's just crazy.
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#159 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:15:33 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
re: today's match

Isn't his name Vyse the Legend, technically?


That's the top title you can earn in the game. Vyse's title changes as you progress through the game. Most Vyse fans simply call him Vyse the Legend because, well, it's awesome.
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#160 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 8/11/2013 11:19:16 AM | message detail
I said I was guessing >>.
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#161 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:20:38 AM | message detail
also guys we're sure Rayman destroys Vyse now right

otherwise we may be in for a surprise Ammy victory next round
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#162 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/11/2013 11:22:14 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
also guys we're sure Rayman destroys Vyse now right

otherwise we may be in for a surprise Ammy victory next round


Honestly, Leon, you should be rooting hard for Missingno now. I don't think Squall can beat Ammy with Tidus in the poll.
#163 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/11/2013 11:26:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Midna's borderline. But you're right, I completely forgot about Kratos. He probably is above Amaterasu, too.

Don't know if I'd say he's above her by quite a bit, though!


Amaterasu's beaten up on, like, Shadow... Kratos posted 45% on Charizard in a day match. He might be weaker now but as of at least the last contest he was definitely much stronger.

And I thought we'd already settled how DogFAQs worked, guys! Nominate dogs


Kratos also only got 60% on Tails. But you're right; Ammy doesn't really have any victories over anything of strength. She's just perceived as strong because her advancement has always come as a bracket-buster (seriously, look around the various "Most Surprising Results" pages; she's all over it) and she's among the select group that has never lost in Round One.

Characters who have never lost in Round 1 of a contest, by contests competed in. (Years in which a character was excluded from the main bracket will not be counted. So Summer 2005 and Summer 2006 for Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth and Summer 2006 for Mario)

11 contests: None, obviously, because the only two characters who were in both Summer 2002 and Spring 2005 are Sephiroth, who was retired from the main bracket in two contests, and CATS, who has yet to even reach round 2 and also has missed some contests.

10 contests:
Bowser
Dante
Mega Man (this contest's R1 result still pending)
Ryu (SF)
Samus Aran
Solid Snake
Sonic the Hedgehog

9 contests:
Luigi
Mario
Sephiroth

8 contests:
Auron
Cloud Strife
Link
Yoshi

7 contests:
Zelda (this contest's R1 result still pending)

6 contests:
Sub-Zero
Vincent Valentine

5 contests:
Amaterasu
Tifa Lockhart

4 contests:
L-Block
Mega Man X

3 contests:
Altair
Pokémon Trainer Red (this contest's R1 result still pending)
Vergil
Weighted Companion Cube (this contest's R1 result still pending)

2 contests:
Charizard (this contest's R1 result still pending)
Dr. Wily
Dracula
Gilgamesh
Missingno. (this contest's R1 result still pending)
Morrigan Aensland
Mudkip*
Pokémon Trainer Blue

1 contest:
Ansem
Barret Wallace
Bartz Klauser
Bayonetta*
Bidoof
Black Knight
Blinky
Chell
Dragonborn
Draven
Elizabeth
Epona
Hogger
Kairi
King K. Rool
Kyo Kusanagi
Lucario
Lugia
M. Bison
Master Hand
Mr. Game and Watch
Nero
Orochi
Serious Sam
Sigma
Squirtle
Strider Hiryu
Tharja
Tina Armstrong
Yoshimitsu*
Zeus

* If losing in a vote-in counts, these characters don't belong here either. Bayonetta actually made vote-ins in both CBVIII and Rivalry Rumble and failed to get into either one before finally getting into a match and winning this year.

So many one-contest wonders. Most of these guys were either Villains Contest, Rivalry Rumble, CBI, or are newbies this year. Actually, the only ones that aren't are Bidoof, Hogger, and Kairi. Some pretty big characters aren't on this list, usually because of LOLseeding (the only thing worse about CBI than all of the fodder that was put in it was that Squall is only not on the above list because he was given a 15-seed in that contest and fed to Solid Snake in round 1).
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#164 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:28:14 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Honestly, Leon, you should be rooting hard for Missingno now.


I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
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#165 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/11/2013 11:31:33 AM | message detail
Ahh I love reminiscing about the days of Sephiroth domination. Them were the good ol' days.
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#166 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/11/2013 11:31:49 AM | message detail
also guys we're sure Rayman destroys Vyse now right

otherwise we may be in for a surprise Ammy victory next round


Using what Vyse got against Rayman in 2007 Amaterasu is expected to get 60.72% on Squall.

Watch out Snake.
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#167 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/11/2013 11:33:17 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
also guys we're sure Rayman destroys Vyse now right

otherwise we may be in for a surprise Ammy victory next round


Honestly, Leon, you should be rooting hard for Missingno now. I don't think Squall can beat Ammy with Tidus in the poll.


Tidus pulls a Kefka and beats Squall. Amaterasu is still in last place.
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#168 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 11:33:44 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
No. What you guys are saying is just untenable. Either you're saying that Mario actually RSSFed Link in 2002 and that the beatdown should have been much worse or that Sephiroth would have 55/45d Link had they met in 2003 (depending on how much you think Link SFFed Mario in 2002), a complete reversal of the 2002 result. Neither of those makes any sense at all.


Mario was weaker in 2003, especially after he was fresh off of stealing the vaunted rematch from Crono. Mega Man did better on Seph in 2003. Seph 2003 could conceivably 55-45 today's Link, but that's an even match with a decent Link advantage in 2003.
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#169 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 11:34:41 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
I don't think Minecraft will lose to Katamari.


The King would probably be a more appealing joke option than a freaking Creeper. But yeah, I should probably change, especially after seeing how fodderrific Katamari Damacy was in GOTD.

I think it was Viewtiful Joe beating Handsome Jack that gave me the King > Creeper idea, but yeah Katamari Damacy isn't nearly as well-known as Viewtiful Joe (though it WAS better-received...).

To think we could seriously see Wario dominate a match.
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#170 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:35:28 AM | message detail
Tidus beating Squall would be literally the biggest turnaround this contest has ever seen! At least in terms of characters who've had a direct match before.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2516

If Tidus somehow made it to round 2, I think Squall would beat Tidus badly enough to prevent Ammy from capitalizing on it.

Maybe not though. Either way, I'm willing to self-sabotage to give Tidus a good win.
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#171 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/11/2013 11:42:24 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
also guys we're sure Rayman destroys Vyse now right

otherwise we may be in for a surprise Ammy victory next round


Rayman is stronger than Vyse. Ammy is actually pretty strong though. The problem is Ammy is going to hold down Squall and Missingo is going to take first in that match, as much as that saddens me.
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#172 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:47:52 AM | message detail
why is Amaterasu going to hold down Squall again

Seriously you guys find LFF in everything even when it has no reason to be there
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#173 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/11/2013 11:48:08 AM | message detail
What I'm gathering from this match is that Amaterasu is going to Round 3.

I can live with this.
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#174 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/11/2013 11:48:36 AM | message detail
And yeah Leon's right Ammy isn't going to LFF Squall.

Missingno is going to LFF Squall!
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#175 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 11:48:52 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Tidus beating Squall would be literally the biggest turnaround this contest has ever seen! At least in terms of characters who've had a direct match before.


If only Big Boss had faced Auron this year we could have possibly seen a bigger one
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#176 | Sorozone | Posted 8/11/2013 11:49:09 AM | message detail
That Capcom, Final Fantasy, Sony overlap obviously. Can't beat a stand alone Pokeman.
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#177 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:49:28 AM | message detail
I think we need Amaterasu in the final instead of Mario

She'll LFF Link better than Mario will
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#178 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 11:49:41 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
why is Amaterasu going to hold down Squall again

Seriously you guys find LFF in everything even when it has no reason to be there


what about Auron/Roxas <_<
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#179 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:50:14 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
If only Big Boss had faced Auron this year we could have possibly seen a bigger one


I still think Auron wins that because I'm not ready to put Big Boss on the verge of the Noble Nine quite yet.
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#180 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 11:50:52 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
what about Auron/Roxas <_<


That has every reason to be there! They're literally in the same game

you people

I'm going to go play Skies of Arcadia and yell at ginger punks who pick their noses
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#181 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 11:50:58 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
If only Big Boss had faced Auron this year we could have possibly seen a bigger one


I still think Auron wins that because I'm not ready to put Big Boss on the verge of the Noble Nine quite yet.


I didn't say it would be a FAIR match. Put him in Ocelot's position and watch Auron squirm
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#182 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 11:59:17 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
why is Amaterasu going to hold down Squall again

Seriously you guys find LFF in everything even when it has no reason to be there


"no fun allowed"-LeonhartFour
and obviously Ammy would get a higher percentage than Mario in the final, DogFAQs contributes an automatic 15% :P
#183 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 12:00:38 PM | message detail
If Tidus beats Missingno I'm putting No Fun AllowedFAQs in my sig, aw yeah

as soon as I can shake this damned terrible Randian malarkey
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#184 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 12:01:49 PM | message detail
Oh right, trend chart from the night match:

Time | Squall | Rayman | Video | Votes
0:05 | 61.89% | 31.76% | 6.35% | 488
1:00 | 63.65% | 27.39% | 8.96% | 4418
2:00 | 67.17% | 24.74% | 8.08% | 2635
3:00 | 67.80% | 24.06% | 8.14% | 1978
4:00 | 65.84% | 26.10% | 8.06% | 1663
5:00 | 65.91% | 27.24% | 6.85% | 1417
6:00 | 65.35% | 26.74% | 7.92% | 1238
7:00 | 66.18% | 26.88% | 6.94% | 1239
8:00 | 66.09% | 27.59% | 6.32% | 1330
9:00 | 66.67% | 25.51% | 7.82% | 1572
10:00 | 67.01% | 25.16% | 7.83% | 1725
11:00 | 65.70% | 26.48% | 7.82% | 1828
12:00 | 65.36% | 26.57% | 8.07% | 1784

Squall does his best FFVII impression. Commander Video does his best Tanner impression. Rayman does his best Rayman impression.

X-Stats:

Squall Leonhart – 50.00%
Rayman – 28.47%
Commander Video – 10.77%

Squall's prediction percentage was 80.13%
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#185 | spooky96 | Posted 8/11/2013 12:01:54 PM | message detail
Just in case anyone is reading this, how do you calculate a character's percentage for 1v1 in this 3 way? I mean lets say Cloud had 60%, Squall has 25% and Mewtwo has 15%. How do I know that how much % Cloud has on Mewtwo? How will the formula/calculation change if there are 5 characters?
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#186 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 12:02:46 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
"no fun allowed"-LeonhartFour


what I'm supposed to assume people are being sarcastic whenever they post nonsense now

I guess that would make things a bit easier for me
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#187 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 12:05:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
spooky96 posted...
Just in case anyone is reading this, how do you calculate a character's percentage for 1v1 in this 3 way? I mean lets say Cloud had 60%, Squall has 25% and Mewtwo has 15%. How do I know that how much % Cloud has on Mewtwo? How will the formula/calculation change if there are 5 characters?


I always do it via votes, not raw percentage, so it doesn't matter how many characters are in the match.
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#188 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 12:03:59 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Just in case anyone is reading this, how do you calculate a character's percentage for 1v1 in this 3 way? I mean lets say Cloud had 60%, Squall has 25% and Mewtwo has 15%. How do I know that how much % Cloud has on Mewtwo? How will the formula/calculation change if there are 5 characters?


just remove the other characters and compare them 1v1
in your example, Cloud gets 80% on Mewtwo, Squall gets 62.5% on Mewtwo, and Cloud gets 70.59% on Squall
of course, this doesn't account for LFF or anything
#189 | spooky96 | Posted 8/11/2013 12:06:42 PM | message detail
Oh alright, thanks a bunch both.
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#190 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 12:55:10 PM | message detail
This is a terrifying performance. I know Vyse is a lot weaker, but this isn't *too* far off from where Cloud got on him once upon a time.
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#191 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/11/2013 1:08:45 PM | message detail
I wish Adol could give Ammy a few percents. Adol's performance is "too good" to really make Ammy seem impressive. Ammy's only putting up +/-84% on him. Considering how weak Adol should be, that's not all that impressive.
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#192 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 1:09:25 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
This is a terrifying performance. I know Vyse is a lot weaker, but this isn't *too* far off from where Cloud got on him once upon a time.


Ammy>Cloud hype! :P
#193 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 1:09:31 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
This is a terrifying performance. I know Vyse is a lot weaker, but this isn't *too* far off from where Cloud got on him once upon a time.


Vyse has a tendency to let people perform like Cloud on him...!
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#194 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 1:11:19 PM | message detail
Hey, if we're gonna set the bar at Tifa 2005, I don't think any of us would begrudge Ammy that

(she's not, but it's just very impressive to see these numbers nevertheless)
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#195 | paulg235 | Posted 8/11/2013 1:13:01 PM | message detail
Snake scored 86% on Vyse in 2007, so I'm not putting too much stock into Ammy's performance, here.
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#196 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 1:14:44 PM | message detail
Well, it's more like Vyse is making Ammy look like Tifa at this point anyway...!

Poor VFL
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#197 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 1:20:43 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Snake scored 86% on Vyse in 2007, so I'm not putting too much stock into Ammy's performance, here.


SBAllen, take out 1000 votes from Vyse so we can start the Ammy=Snake hype train....!
#198 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 1:33:21 PM | message detail | (edited)
The Real Truth posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
also guys we're sure Rayman destroys Vyse now right

otherwise we may be in for a surprise Ammy victory next round


Rayman is stronger than Vyse. Ammy is actually pretty strong though. The problem is Ammy is going to hold down Squall and Missingo is going to take first in that match, as much as that saddens me.


To be fair, this is the same guy who was saying that Yuna stood no chance at beating Master Chief because Chief stood out in the match pic.

But Chief isn't exactly the guy to benefit from STF if he's still as anti-voted as he used to be, which I have a hard time believing after his games did well in GOTD. My only guess is that the character fails to get support due to being a generic power-armored space marine while his games get support because of how impactful they have been.

Because let's be honest: Master Chief's design is a bit of a stock character design for at least a decade now. By contrast, you don't see Link or Mario getting imitated as often.

You think Samus gets a good amount of her support from being "the first lady of gaming" and voters thus recognizing the importance of that? Between that factor, Smash Bros., and her character design, there's good reason to think that her own games don't factor all that much into her contest strength. This, along with Nathan Drake disappointing and Master Chief bombing, is yet another sign that points towards the top quarter of the GOTD bracket being overrated in the stats, and I'm surprised that hasn't gotten more discussion. I suppose it's because we all accept that? I don't want that to be true, but then again maybe that's entirely out of me being a huge fan of Metroid Prime and Half-Life 2 (plus both those games being strong just makes sense going off of their popularity/critical acclaim elsewhere).
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#199 | ZFS | Posted 8/11/2013 1:31:59 PM | message detail
Amaterasu is a beast. Awesome!
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#200 | ZFS | Posted 8/11/2013 1:33:46 PM | message detail
The Real Truth posted...
Rayman is stronger than Vyse. Ammy is actually pretty strong though. The problem is Ammy is going to hold down Squall and Missingo is going to take first in that match, as much as that saddens me.


Wait, why does Amaterasu and Squall overlap? Sounds like video game overlap to me!
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