Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1103

#1 | whatev | Posted 8/11/2013 12:50:52 AM | message detail
Commander Video over 8%? It's clear he's being stuffed.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

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#2 | Magic8Squall | Posted 8/11/2013 12:58:16 AM | message detail
#3 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/11/2013 1:03:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
#4 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/11/2013 1:01:57 AM | message detail
Didn't Squall die?

I really need to replay FF8.
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IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#5 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2013 1:07:07 AM | message detail
Everyone should replay FFVIII!
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#6 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/11/2013 1:18:18 AM | message detail
Back in middle school I for some reason sold my copy of FF8 for like five bucks

Possibly a huge mistake
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#7 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 5:41:49 AM | message detail
Wario/Red/Cecil

shut up, LMS
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#8 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 8/11/2013 5:45:39 AM | message detail
I should really replay FFVIII. It and X are the only ones I haven't replayed that I enjoyed the first time.
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#9 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/11/2013 5:47:00 AM | message detail
Cecil would have a good shot of beating Red even without Wario there. Unless you think Knuckles imploded for some reason, the guy's legit.
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#10 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/11/2013 5:47:17 AM | message detail
So with Vyse not being relevant in a while and Adol's series getting a little bit of spotlight recently, the next match is... seeing if Adol can lose respectably.

Sounds exciting.

I guess I'll define respectably as not letting Vyse get over 60%.
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#11 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 8/11/2013 5:49:26 AM | message detail
I thought Adol was the guy from Street Fighter, then I realized that is Adon and Adol is from a game I have played...
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#12 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/11/2013 5:50:35 AM | message detail
I want to see Vyse get 60% overall tomorrow

blargh stupid DogFAQs
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#13 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 5:51:03 AM | message detail
I keep thinking Adol is yet another Generic McDude for some reason.
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#14 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 5:53:23 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
I want to see Vyse get 60% overall tomorrow

blargh stupid DogFAQs


normally I'd be right with you but Vyse is awful :(
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#15 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 5:55:33 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Janus5000 posted...
I want to see Vyse get 60% overall tomorrow

blargh stupid DogFAQs


normally I'd be right with you but Vyse is awful :(


Boo this man. Vyse is awesome.
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#16 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 8/11/2013 5:59:19 AM | message detail
Video is so unknown, I wrote his description because no one else knew who the hell this guy was.
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#17 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 6:01:05 AM | message detail
On that note, I think I'm the only one that wrote bios for any of the GTA characters this contest.
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#18 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 6:06:56 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Janus5000 posted...
I want to see Vyse get 60% overall tomorrow

blargh stupid DogFAQs


normally I'd be right with you but Vyse is awful :(


Boo this man. Vyse is awesome.


Marco: My.. mother... and father... were both killed by Valuan soldiers while they were trying to escape from this city! There's no way out! Trying to get through the Grand Fortress... it's impossible!

Vyse: IMPOSSIBLE IS JUST A WORD TO LET PEOPLE FEEL GOOD ABOUT THEMSELVES WHEN THEY QUIT
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#19 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 6:08:46 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Wario/Red/Cecil

shut up, LMS


All right fine, I admit...wait no, Pokemon doesn't generally overlap much with the rest of Nintendo so forget it.

Although I guess Red could suffer from Brawl overlap against Wario? Possible. I'd estimate Red to be worth about 55% on Cecil normally (Red = Blue = Fox, we'd all take Fox > Knuckles without a second thought). Fine, I admit defeat.
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#20 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/11/2013 6:10:01 AM | message detail
I think I actually own that Bit.Trip.Runner game from some Indie bundle. I still had no idea who the guy was until I saw that Meat Boy video.
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Bracket score: 57 / Expert score: 258
#21 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 6:11:18 AM | message detail
On the note of bios, I think I got my favorite character's bio.

Speaking of which, I said earlier that I was anticipating Metroid: Other M to be a huge test of whether or not I can emerge out of it finding Samus to still be likeable. Well, my mission to spot any differences whatsoever in her characterization there compared to in earlier games ended in...

...complete failure.
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#22 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 6:12:15 AM | message detail
Uh, Pokemon overlaps with Nintendo all the time, like a ton. This is how Pikachu went from beating both Dante and Leon in the same match to stabbing Luigi in the back in the next round and making them both come in last. Pokemon doesn't get SFFed by Nintendo generally, which is different, in multiway polls that can still easily cost either entity the win.
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#23 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 6:16:20 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Janus5000 posted...
I want to see Vyse get 60% overall tomorrow

blargh stupid DogFAQs


normally I'd be right with you but Vyse is awful :(


Boo this man. Vyse is awesome.


Marco: My.. mother... and father... were both killed by Valuan soldiers while they were trying to escape from this city! There's no way out! Trying to get through the Grand Fortress... it's impossible!

Vyse: IMPOSSIBLE IS JUST A WORD TO LET PEOPLE FEEL GOOD ABOUT THEMSELVES WHEN THEY QUIT


How is that not Vyse's quote on his bio anyway?
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#24 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/11/2013 6:18:05 AM | message detail
Video turns out to be even worse than expected, while Rayman manages to show signs of having boosted in getting high 20s on Squall. Boring match.

Round 1, Match 67

(5) Amaterasu
(14) Vyse
(23) Adol Christin

Another straightfoward match. Amaterasu has wins over Balthier, Shadow, Ada Wong, to her name, while Vyse has long since lost whatever strength he once had. At least he has a history though, and a win over Laharl, which is more than can be said about the guy from Ys.

Let's say mid-60s for Ammy over Vyse, and who knows what Adol Christin ends up with...

Bracket: Amaterasu
Expert: Amaterasu > Vyse > Adol
Oracle: Amaterasu - 54.5%; Vyse - 29.5%; Adol Christin - 16%
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#25 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/11/2013 6:29:18 AM | message detail | (edited)
And, no LMS, the match before Rikku's does not feature two inanimate objects. It features one inanimate object and a robot that's shaped similarly to the inanimate object.

Over in the "Who Would You Have Sex With" topic, this two-match stretch would be known as six straight boxes.
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#26 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 6:46:36 AM | message detail
Squall still rising, yeesh. Must be that KH magic. He's got a chance to reach that 'impressive' mark I set for him of the upper 60s if he keeps it up.
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#27 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/11/2013 6:49:48 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Lloyd Irving – 23.62% vs. Big Daddy – 23.45% - Round 1 – 0.17%
2. Alucard – 36.32% vs. Captain Falcon – 35.95% - Round 1 – 0.37%
3. Ike – 35.81% vs. Proto Man – 35.26% - Round 1 – 0.55%
4. Tharja – 36.21% vs. Tiny Tina – 35.35% - Round 1 – 0.86%
5. Guybrush Threepwood – 18.06% vs. Max Payne – 16.76% - Round 1 – 1.30%
6. Viewtiful Joe – 25.65% vs. Handsome Jack – 24.20% - Round 1 – 1.45%
7. Missile – 19.26 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 17.74% - Round 1 – 1.52%
8. Captain Viridian – 13.51% vs. Peacock – 11.60% - Round 1 – 1.91%
9. Catherine – 39.84% vs. Neku Sakuraba – 37.87% - Round 1 – 1.97%
9. Tom Nook – 29.82% vs. Pyramid Head – 27.85% - Round 1 – 1.97%

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Ike – 11023 vs. Proto Man – 10854 – Round 1 – 169
2. Guybrush Threepwood – 4888 vs. Max Payne – 4537 – Round 1 – 351
3. Viewtiful Joe – 7315 vs. Handsome Jack – 6901 – Round 1 – 415
4. Missile – 6138 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 5654 – Round 1 – 484
5. Catherine – 12092 vs. Neku Sakuraba – 11493 – Round 1 – 599
6. Mr. Game & Watch – 10500 vs. Lee Everett – 9808 – Round 1 – 692
7. Hero – 8311 vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 7503 – Round 1 – 808
8. Zack Fair – 9862 vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 8955 – Round 1 – 907
9. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 14426 vs. Fox McCloud – 13207 – Round 1 – 1219
10. Miles Edgeworth – 8763 vs. Agent 47 – 7350 – Round 1 – 1413

Top 10 Least Popular Day Polls
1. Gilgamesh vs. Booker DeWitt vs. Kaim Argonar – Round 1 – 25976
2. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26421
3. Ganondorf vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs. Max Payne – Round 1 – 27065
4. Ness vs. Locke Cole vs. CATS – Round 1 – 27607
5. Magus vs. Otacon vs. Jade Curtiss – Round 1 – 28173
6. Leon Kennedy vs. Albert Wesker vs. Oliver – Round 1 – 28303
7. Frog vs. Viewtiful Joe vs. Handsome Jack – Round 1 – 28522
8. Dante vs. Laharl vs. Raz – Round 1 – 28802
9. Altair vs. Ratchet vs. Shulk – Round 1 – 29616
10. Mario vs. Duke Nukem vs. Fawful – Round 1 – 29880
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#28 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 6:51:26 AM | message detail
Guybrush and Max Payne really drawing the votals, I see.
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#29 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/11/2013 6:56:25 AM | message detail
Speaking of low vote totals this match is barely ahead of Luigia/Sly/Francis and it has Squall
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#30 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/11/2013 6:57:22 AM | message detail
Match LXVIII: (5) Amaterasu vs. (14) Vyse vs. (23) Adol Christin

Previous Contest

Amaterasu – 2010
52.59% against Shadow the Hedgehog
40.41% against Luigi

Vyse – 2007
10.51% against Solid Snake, Nightmare and Rayman

Adol Christin – N/A
N/A

Analysis

Amaterasu is one of those characters that I find surprising she has this much strength. Breaking 40% against Luigi is no joke and places her into mid-carder range. However, things may be different now. With no new releases since we last saw her it is only a matter of time before she starts decreasing in strength. Still even if she were to drop in strength she will have more than enough strength to finish ahead of these weaklings.

Remember when Vyse was used to be the fodder line in our discussions, literally the next year he goes and falls off the face of the Earth. Six years since his last appearance and no new games released it is hard to imagine that he has much strength remaining. Despite all this he still has an excellent chance of finishing second.

Adol is one of those characters that made it to North America in the early days, was kept to Japan for a decade before coming back over the last decade or so. His games have been mostly limited to PC and handheld releases since his return. Overall I do not see him having any strength, but at the same time you do not need much to win over Vyse.

I am going to go with Vyse for second place because Skies of Arcadia is still more well-known than anything Adol has appeared in. Adol has a chance at taking the upset, but I just do not see it happening. Amaterasu could push for 60% easily against these characters, especially if she maintains her strength from 2010.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Amaterasu > Vyse and Adol Christin

charmander6000’s Prediction: Amaterasu – 61.56%, Vyse – 21.03%, Adol Christin – 17.41%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#31 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 7:02:46 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Speaking of low vote totals this match is barely ahead of Luigia/Sly/Francis and it has Squall


Heh. Luigia.
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#32 | superange128 | Posted 8/11/2013 7:06:26 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Match LXVIII: (5) Amaterasu vs. (14) Vyse vs. (23) Adol Christin

Previous Contest

Amaterasu – 2010
52.59% against Shadow the Hedgehog
40.41% against Luigi

Vyse – 2007
10.51% against Solid Snake, Nightmare and Rayman

Adol Christin – N/A
N/A

Analysis

Amaterasu is one of those characters that I find surprising she has this much strength. Breaking 40% against Luigi is no joke and places her into mid-carder range. However, things may be different now. With no new releases since we last saw her it is only a matter of time before she starts decreasing in strength. Still even if she were to drop in strength she will have more than enough strength to finish ahead of these weaklings.

Remember when Vyse was used to be the fodder line in our discussions, literally the next year he goes and falls off the face of the Earth. Six years since his last appearance and no new games released it is hard to imagine that he has much strength remaining. Despite all this he still has an excellent chance of finishing second.

Adol is one of those characters that made it to North America in the early days, was kept to Japan for a decade before coming back over the last decade or so. His games have been mostly limited to PC and handheld releases since his return. Overall I do not see him having any strength, but at the same time you do not need much to win over Vyse.

I am going to go with Vyse for second place because Skies of Arcadia is still more well-known than anything Adol has appeared in. Adol has a chance at taking the upset, but I just do not see it happening. Amaterasu could push for 60% easily against these characters, especially if she maintains her strength from 2010.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Amaterasu > Vyse and Adol Christin

charmander6000’s Prediction: Amaterasu – 61.56%, Vyse – 21.03%, Adol Christin – 17.41%



can't forget Marvel vs Capcom 3 and Sonic and All-Stars Racing Transformed
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#33 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/11/2013 7:09:30 AM | message detail
Great final post in the last topic SecretSquirrel
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#34 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 7:13:05 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Speaking of low vote totals this match is barely ahead of Luigia/Sly/Francis and it has Squall


Heh. Luigia.


Luigi/Lugia would have done better than Luigi/Waluigi
wait what
#35 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 7:20:08 AM | message detail
Luigi always brings in the votes, even when he gets pulverized. I don't really get it <_<
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#36 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/11/2013 7:24:43 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Great final post in the last topic SecretSquirrel


Damn right.
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#37 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/11/2013 7:34:44 AM | message detail
Funny, I've written Luigi instead of Lugia a few times, but never a combined word.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#38 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/11/2013 7:42:41 AM | message detail
Pokemon's interactions with other Nintendo in multi-way polls are often similar to how FF and KH interact, where the weaker entity doesn't get SFF'd, but there's heavy leeching (Sora/Squall, FFX/KH1, Pikachu/Luigi, RBY/OoT, Mewtwo/Bowser).
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#39 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 7:51:53 AM | message detail
Yeah, this is why even if Pokemon is able to take advantage of its rigged situations it's putting itself in an untenable position in the next round. Crono/Pikachu/Magus with Pikachu winning leads most likely to Pikachu/Sora/Blue. Missingno beating Squall leads to Mario/Missingno/Red if Cecil can't take advantage of his favorable setup.

Charizard's basically the only one with a free pass of rigged setups to potentially vault him to the finals, though even Lightning could scare him if she ended up being worthwhile. Don't see that happening, though. Kind of a waste, any Square near-elite in her position has a good shot of making a run to the finals.
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#40 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 7:57:39 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah, this is why even if Pokemon is able to take advantage of its rigged situations it's putting itself in an untenable position in the next round. Crono/Pikachu/Magus with Pikachu winning leads most likely to Pikachu/Sora/Blue. Missingno beating Squall leads to Mario/Missingno/Red if Cecil can't take advantage of his favorable setup.

Charizard's basically the only one with a free pass of rigged setups to potentially vault him to the finals, though even Lightning could scare him if she ended up being worthwhile. Don't see that happening, though. Kind of a waste, any Square near-elite in her position has a good shot of making a run to the finals.


just watch, Pikachu and Missingno will overcome Pokemon LFF to win anyway...!
#41 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 7:58:39 AM | message detail
Hey, if they can do that, they're easily stronger than Link now, so I'll take it.
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#42 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 8:08:00 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Match LXVIII: (5) Amaterasu vs. (14) Vyse vs. (23) Adol Christin

Previous Contest

Amaterasu – 2010
52.59% against Shadow the Hedgehog
40.41% against Luigi

Vyse – 2007
10.51% against Solid Snake, Nightmare and Rayman

Adol Christin – N/A
N/A

Analysis

Amaterasu is one of those characters that I find surprising she has this much strength. Breaking 40% against Luigi is no joke and places her into mid-carder range. However, things may be different now. With no new releases since we last saw her it is only a matter of time before she starts decreasing in strength. Still even if she were to drop in strength she will have more than enough strength to finish ahead of these weaklings.

Her game got a sequel and an HD port since last contest.

Remember when Vyse was used to be the fodder line in our discussions, literally the next year he goes and falls off the face of the Earth. Six years since his last appearance and no new games released it is hard to imagine that he has much strength remaining. Despite all this he still has an excellent chance of finishing second.

Wrong, Vyse got his first game appearance in 8 years just last year, although then again 2012 games so far haven't seem to have done anything.

Adol is one of those characters that made it to North America in the early days, was kept to Japan for a decade before coming back over the last decade or so. His games have been mostly limited to PC and handheld releases since his return. Overall I do not see him having any strength, but at the same time you do not need much to win over Vyse.

I am going to go with Vyse for second place because Skies of Arcadia is still more well-known than anything Adol has appeared in. Adol has a chance at taking the upset, but I just do not see it happening. Amaterasu could push for 60% easily against these characters, especially if she maintains her strength from 2010.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Amaterasu > Vyse and Adol Christin

charmander6000’s Prediction: Amaterasu – 61.56%, Vyse – 21.03%, Adol Christin – 17.41%

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#43 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/11/2013 8:08:51 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#44 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/11/2013 8:10:34 AM | message detail
LOL at LMS quoting charmander's write-up and putting his own comments inside of the quote tag, rather than putting the comments after the quote tag.
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#45 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 8:15:23 AM | message detail
I also completely forgot that Ammy got Marvel vs. Capcom 3 since last contest.

But yeah, match featuring three cult characters = snoozefest. Doesn't matter if one of them appeared in a freaking kart racer last year while the other appeared in a crossover fighting game the year before (plus Capcom really wants people to play her game).
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#46 | pjbasis | Posted 8/11/2013 8:17:24 AM | message detail
Dang, Red needs to beat Cecil for Squall to get as close to Mario as possible.

But I want Cecil to win twice too...!
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#47 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2013 8:19:22 AM | message detail
Embarrassing confession: I had Pit winning, then I thought that the Nintendo split would allow the freaking Creeper through.

And now, in my Expert Challenge, I have the Creeper getting dead last in its match.
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#48 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/11/2013 8:20:48 AM | message detail
Okami>Skies of Arcadia
#49 | pjbasis | Posted 8/11/2013 8:20:51 AM | message detail
I don't think Minecraft will lose to Katamari.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#50 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/11/2013 8:21:41 AM | message detail
Eh, if Squall was going up against Mario in a night match it would be something more interesting, but Mario shouldn't be seriously threatened in a 24 hour match. Cecil getting to Round 3, especially when he's been getting screwed over constantly in these things over the years, would be more remarkable.
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