Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1102

#401 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 9:08:02 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
If Squall = Mewtwo, Commander Video is expected to get 77.83% against Chester.


Squall's a lot stronger than Mewtwo. Video's safe...I think.

Only problem is that Squall's percentage looks a lot worse because Rayman is actually worth something and Zero (999) really wasn't.
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#402 | Sorozone | Posted 8/10/2013 9:08:31 PM | message detail
DSRKVRTheDealer posted...
So what's the Creeper/Wario consensus?


Wario is the favorite. There is also a supposed 4chan rally in wait for him, but that could also mean more stuffed votes. I think Wario cruises regardless of a rally or not.
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#403 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:08:33 PM | message detail
guys Video being an all-time bottom-of-the-barrell contender is meaningless in the face of the fact that Rayman may finally have the legit strength he's deserved for so long
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#404 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:09:34 PM | message detail
aww, Rayman dropped
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#405 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 9:09:43 PM | message detail
Squall isn't known for tearing up the board vote. Rayman's dropping in a hurry.

Damn you Commander Video go down
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#406 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:09:55 PM | message detail
ALRIGHT FINE THEN BE JERKS
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#407 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:09:59 PM | message detail
Okay, maybe we should back this up.

Tanner Watch? >_>


Using 2010 Squall Commander Video is expected to get 76.40% against Tanner
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#408 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:11:20 PM | message detail
dammit video why did you have to go up now you're just boring
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#409 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 9:11:23 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
guys Video being an all-time bottom-of-the-barrell contender is meaningless in the face of the fact that Rayman may finally have the legit strength he's deserved for so long


Ooh. That's certainly nice to see.
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#410 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:11:46 PM | message detail
Oh good, looks like I wasn't alone in having literally never even heard of Commander Video or the game he came from before this contest!

And time for Squall to do his best FFVII impression!
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#411 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:11:47 PM | message detail
At this rate we can only hope Rayman becomes regular fodder instead of weak fodder.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#412 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:12:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, it was nice seeing Rayman look so good.
#413 | NewCastlEmperor | Posted 8/10/2013 9:12:03 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Rayman may finally have the legit strength he's deserved for so long


See, that's what happens when Ubisoft finally decided to pull him out of Rabbid purgatory.
#414 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 9:12:26 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#415 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:12:26 PM | message detail
The Rabbids have a TV show on Nick now.
#416 | xp1337 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:12:27 PM | message detail
Huh. I thought that would have been closer. Figured Tanner would still be losing, but only a percent better than Chester?

I mean, Squall should be a lot better than Mewtwo so Video should end up looking even better against Chester, but still!
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#417 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 9:12:32 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
DSRKVRTheDealer posted...
So what's the Creeper/Wario consensus?


Wario is the favorite. There is also a supposed 4chan rally in wait for him, but that could also mean more stuffed votes. I think Wario cruises regardless of a rally or not.


Oh my g-d thank you so much for debating this. I just went into my Expert bracket to make sure that I had Wario > Creeper. I did, but I also had Tidus > Missingno. Glad I caught that error.
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#418 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:13:36 PM | message detail
OK Rayman next goal PREVENT THE TRIPLING

Being in the 72/28 range against Squall is no shame! I think! 2010 Squall vs. 07 Rayman is an 85/15 affair!
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#419 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:14:06 PM | message detail
Huh. I thought that would have been closer. Figured Tanner would still be losing, but only a percent better than Chester?

I used the second update to calculate it. Tanner is only expected to get 4.96% against 2010 Squall.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#420 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 9:14:12 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Oh good, looks like I wasn't alone in having literally never even heard of Commander Video or the game he came from before this contest!

And time for Squall to do his best FFVII impression!


Ditto.
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#421 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:14:55 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Okay, maybe we should back this up.

Tanner Watch? >_>


Using 2010 Squall Commander Video is expected to get 76.40% against Tanner


Wait. What does Tanner get on Chester then? They are really that close?
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#422 | Xuxon | Posted 8/10/2013 9:15:40 PM | message detail
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 8/11/2013 12:13:36 AM | #418
OK Rayman next goal PREVENT THE TRIPLING

Being in the 72/28 range against Squall is no shame! I think! 2010 Squall vs. 07 Rayman is an 85/15 affair!

Nightmare got 72% on 07 Rayman so yeah, that's a few steps up
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#423 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:15:57 PM | message detail
Commander Video has gone up 1% every update

I'm leaving for three and a half hours he better be ahead when I get back
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#424 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:16:18 PM | message detail
Rayman might actually be close to the Vyse Fodder Line instead of the Vyse Uberfodder Line.
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#425 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 9:16:31 PM | message detail
That was a bad update. Commander Video over 12% on Squall now. Even if Squall rises like crazy overnight, I'm not expecting Video to drop below 10% on Squall, which means he's still stronger than Tanner.
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#426 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:16:45 PM | message detail
Using 2010 Mewtwo Tanner gets 70.27% against Chester
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#427 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:18:53 PM | message detail
OK so Missingno crushes Tidus, Squall beats Missingno by a bit and suddenly I'm on the Rayman > Tidus upset train choo choo
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#428 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:20:23 PM | message detail
If Missingno is in the business of crushing characters now, we're all in trouble.
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#429 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 9:20:54 PM | message detail
Just all depends on if Rayman can hold this together. Squall's got roughly 70/30 on him and rising.
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#430 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:23:42 PM | message detail
And Squall will almost undoubtedly take the night vote. He's noticeably stronger in Europe than he is in America. Auron beat Squall in America in 2010, but Squall beat him rather handily in Europe.
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#431 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:25:25 PM | message detail
Same with Sora in 2008, for the record. Sora actually beat Squall in America both times.

Sora beat him in America in Rivals, too.
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#432 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:28:50 PM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | Ganon | Guybrush | Max | Votes
0:05 | 66.24% | 16.56% | 17.20% | 157
1:00 | 63.63% | 19.70% | 16.67% | 4380
2:00 | 65.17% | 17.77% | 17.07% | 3428
3:00 | 64.71% | 19.20% | 16.10% | 2839
4:00 | 64.95% | 18.57% | 16.48% | 2542
5:00 | 64.67% | 17.97% | 17.36% | 2287
6:00 | 65.03% | 18.54% | 16.43% | 2082
7:00 | 68.16% | 14.86% | 16.97% | 1803
8:00 | 63.19% | 19.14% | 17.68% | 1782
9:00 | 66.75% | 16.37% | 16.88% | 1570
10:00 | 66.75% | 17.22% | 16.03% | 1510
11:00 | 65.90% | 16.53% | 17.57% | 1434
12:00 | 66.90% | 16.97% | 16.12% | 1408

Ganondorf does better as the match drags along. Guybrush does well in the first hour, but he and Max fluctuate back and forth.

X-Stats:

Ganondorf – 50.00%
Guybrush Threepwood – 21.70%
Max Payne – 20.46%

Ganondorf's prediction percentage was 84.50%
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#433 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 9:28:54 PM | message detail
I still say Squall crushes Sora 1v1 if it isn't for that damnable SMF (Smart Voter Factor)

But the stupid smart voters got too cute! We coulda had Squall in Round 4 if you'd let Yoshi or Fox in argh
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#434 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:29:51 PM | message detail
Squall getting SFF'd by Cloud could've beaten Mewtwo and yet you guys pick him to beat Vincent...!
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#435 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:31:06 PM | message detail
What does Squall/Sora have to do with smart voters?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#436 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 9:31:21 PM | message detail
Vincent is a scrub I'd never have picked Mewtwo over Squall
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#437 | pjbasis | Posted 8/10/2013 9:32:56 PM | message detail
Tidus isn't going to get that crushed
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#438 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:35:33 PM | message detail
There we go, Squall.

More updates like that one.

Show them you're still the most elite of the near elites!
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#439 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:37:30 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Tidus isn't going to get that crushed


SHUT UP YES HE IS
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#440 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:38:15 PM | message detail
STOP RIGHT THERE MISSINGNOERS

YOU GUYS ARE LAUGHING NOW BUT NOT FOR LONG

BECAUSE US AUROCHS ARE TAKIN' THE CUP

HA HA
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#441 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/10/2013 9:38:47 PM | message detail
Missingno gonna beat this loser no sweat.
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#442 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 9:39:00 PM | message detail
oh my god I suddenly felt an overwhelming urge to vote for Missingno

this is why Tidus is going to lose isn't it
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#443 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:39:21 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Missingno gonna beat this loser no sweat.


Squall gonna be above Sephiroth in the adjusted stats

can't wait
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#444 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:41:22 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I suddenly felt an overwhelming urge to vote for Missingno

this is why Tidus is going to lose isn't it


During a match you have to think about VOTES and nothing else, y'know

You can't be thinking, "That's a cute glitch in the 5th row, third from the right"

Because when you do, THAT's when you lose
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#445 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 9:42:43 PM | message detail
Missingno with 99% of the vote

ugh no who else is in that match uhhhhhh

Banjo? well he's due for a win, why not take the upset special
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#446 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:43:12 PM | message detail
I WON'T GO SO EASY ON YOU NEXT TIME
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#447 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:45:15 PM | message detail
Squall had better gain a good 3% over night! He needs to beat the MissingNo! Oh, wait, I want MIssingNo to win. Screw my bracket.

You know? MissingNo looks an awful lot like L-Block with platform shoes....
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#448 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 9:47:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Chart from the day match:

Time | Ganon | Guybrush | Max | Votes
0:05 | 66.24% | 16.56% | 17.20% | 157
1:00 | 63.63% | 19.70% | 16.67% | 4380


The stuffed votes don't really change a whole lot as far as the first hour goes. With the votes removed, Guybrush ends up with 17.83% at the end of the first hour.
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#449 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 9:47:04 PM | message detail
I honestly don't know what to expect from Missingno. It could struggle like crazy against Tidus tomorrow and I still wouldn't feel comfortable about Squall winning next round. Ugh.
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#450 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2013 9:48:15 PM | message detail
I'm pretty impressed that even if Tidus pulls a miracle and beats Missingno, next round he's facing Squall. Again.

A bracketmaker really has to go out of their way to screw a character with strength that badly, year in, year out.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.