Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1102

#351 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 8:08:28 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Also god damnit I was hoping Draven would do something magical to break the LAW, but if Draven's "magic" is just stuffing then I guess we're back where we started: it's down to Solid Snake.

Unless Draven stuffs again and Allen ignores it again. In which case eh that'd be kind of lame. I can get on board with a rally breaking the LAW but not stuffing.


why would you even want Draven to be the one to do it
Snake is such a better character than that scrub


I don't want Draven to do it anymore than I want, say, Jak to do it. I have no investment in the character either way, but I want Link to lose so yeah, league of draven plz.

Obviously the ideal and most glorious scenario is Snake wins.
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#352 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/10/2013 8:11:18 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'd take Pyramid Head over Max/Guybrush at this point. Unless Dragonborn is completely, utterly worthless (could still happen!), it's a pretty dumb question.


Not really, judging on how many people thought Dragonborn flopped lol. We'll see how he fairs against the FF girls
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#353 | xp1337 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:12:13 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Hah. Guybrush had votes removed?

No chance in hell that Reimu didn't stuff like crazy, she dropped like a brick after the first couple hours.

This will bother me for a while though. I mean, Bacon can claim that not calling out Reimu didn't affect anything, but neither did Cirno, but once he starts removing stuffed votes in some places and not others it's only natural to assume that the reason he didn't act in other places is because it was legit. Or at least "legit" enough that it will stand. And that matters! It changes the information and influences things!

i am more annoyed about this than i should be (expert challenge is a part of this, but it's the principle too)

Draven is a weird case because it's not a case where we simply had silence but in fact were explicitly told it was legitimate. That is more troubling if it turns out to be untrue. And if Guybrush of all people is having votes removed!
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#354 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:13:23 PM | message detail
No chance in hell that Reimu didn't stuff like crazy, she dropped like a brick after the first couple hours. Very little chance that Draven didn't have at the least hundreds of stuffed votes.

Go look at the geolocation map, there is no indication of vote stuffing to the level of Cirno/Marisa. Both characters had 90%+ in some areas, Reimu struggled to break 50% in places with more than a few votes.
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#355 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 8:13:58 PM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'd take Pyramid Head over Max/Guybrush at this point. Unless Dragonborn is completely, utterly worthless (could still happen!), it's a pretty dumb question.


Not really, judging on how many people thought Dragonborn flopped lol. We'll see how he fairs against the FF girls


Oh, Dragonborn flopped, don't get me wrong - but there's a long way between Dragonborn flopping (which puts him at about a highish fodder mark) and Guybrush flopping (which puts you among the weakest contest entrants ever, bar none).
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#356 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 8:16:47 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Pretty good chance of 1000+ fraud votes for him, if even a lousy Touhou character can manage 1500 (which it looks like Cirno did, even though only 1000 were removed - Tifa and Chun-Li's %ages tanked the last few hours even after the removal).


Cirno had 1028 votes removed. Then for Marisa, she had votes removed 2 different times. The first time, about 325 votes were removed. Second time, 1670 votes removed. So there were almost 2000 stuffed votes for Marisa.
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#357 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2013 8:19:14 PM | message detail
I'd take Pyramid Head > Guybrush, so Dragonborn > Max Payne is an easy choice...what a disappointment from the guy.

By the by, where did the term "Generic McDude" come from?
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#358 | creativename | Posted 8/10/2013 8:22:07 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
No chance in hell that Reimu didn't stuff like crazy, she dropped like a brick after the first couple hours. Very little chance that Draven didn't have at the least hundreds of stuffed votes.

Go look at the geolocation map, there is no indication of vote stuffing to the level of Cirno/Marisa. Both characters had 90%+ in some areas, Reimu struggled to break 50% in places with more than a few votes.

Go look at the hourly trend charts. It's hard to get more blatant. The way Reimu plummeted makes even the most jokish joke trends look tame.

Geolocation is not the end all and be all magical omnipotent stuffer-detector here! :)
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#359 | creativename | Posted 8/10/2013 8:25:06 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Cirno had 1028 votes removed. Then for Marisa, she had votes removed 2 different times. The first time, about 325 votes were removed. Second time, 1670 votes removed. So there were almost 2000 stuffed votes for Marisa.

Oh wow, 2000 votes, damn. If Touhou superultrafodder can manage that...yikes.

HaRRicH posted...
I'd take Pyramid Head > Guybrush, so Dragonborn > Max Payne is an easy choice...what a disappointment from the guy.

By the by, where did the term "Generic McDude" come from?

I think KP said it was from him. I'd apply it to more characters than him though. For instance I'd apply it to Drake - he isn't a McDude if you've played his games, but that applies to many McDudes. He's a McDude visually, and sadly that's enough for most of this site.

If Drake's games weren't so popular he'd be very weak. As is he's very far from his games despite being a charismatic figure.
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#360 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:29:56 PM | message detail
Go look at the hourly trend charts. It's hard to get more blatant. The way Reimu plummeted makes even the most jokish joke trends look tame.

Geolocation is not the end all and be all magical omnipotent stuffer-detector here! :)


So you're telling me a few people stuffed in many countries in a short time instead of this being a large initial rally. Yet they couldn't come back to do something similar for the other Touhou characters thus needing someone else to stuff many votes in the same place?
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#361 | creativename | Posted 8/10/2013 8:39:55 PM | message detail
Odds are we are dealing with different stuffers here, who may have different methods.

Reimu's trends are off-the-charts in terms of suspicious activity.
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#362 | homsar555 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:44:34 PM | message detail
Reimu dropped off exactly when her rallying threads on 4chan purged. It's not that suspicious.
#363 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2013 8:44:38 PM | message detail
I made it up when I was making that "I analyze every contest match" topic. I had no idea it would stick!

And I apply it to a lot of characters too, but someone like Jensen is not a good choice for it. He looks too...cyberpunky. He actually did pretty good all things considered; WRPG protagonists are never going to be that popular simply because of the amount of freedom players have over them.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#364 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 8:44:58 PM | message detail
List of known countries that I believe have vote stuffed in Marisa's match:

The UK
Ireland
Iceland
Germany
Bulgaria
Turkey
Estonia
Russia
China

Other countries suspected of possibly vote stuffing in Marisa's match:

Brazil
Thailand
Vietnam
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#365 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:48:25 PM | message detail
That method is probably a better way not to get caught, SBAllen obviously has more information than us, but it would not take a genius to essentially disguise the votes to looking like normal people voted.
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#366 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 8:49:45 PM | message detail
homsar555 posted...
Reimu dropped off exactly when her rallying threads on 4chan purged. It's not that suspicious.


When Marisa's 4chan rally topic purged around 11:00 AM EST, she was still going crazy and pulling in a very large number of votes per update.
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#367 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/10/2013 8:54:50 PM | message detail
It stills feels wrong to have Guybrush in 2nd place in Expert Challenge, and he's about to win.

LOL Max Payne
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#368 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:56:08 PM | message detail
Vyse should beat the Ys guy, right?
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#369 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:58:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
Vyse should beat the Ys guy, right?

He should, but they should both be terrible.
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#370 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:05 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
List of known countries that I believe have vote stuffed in Marisa's match:

The UK
Ireland
Iceland
Germany
Bulgaria
Turkey
Estonia
Russia
China

Other countries suspected of possibly vote stuffing in Marisa's match:

Brazil
Thailand
Vietnam


There's a difference between stuffing and rallies. I saw Iceland's percentage go up right at the end, too, but it's literally 10 votes, going from 6-3-4 to 6-3-7 to 6-3-14.
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#371 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart
20%
1 Votes

Rayman
60%
3 Votes
Your Pick

Commander Video
20%
1 Votes

whoo rayman
#372 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart
33.33%
2 Votes
Your Pick

Rayman
50%
3 Votes

Commander Video
16.67%
1 Votes
Total Votes: 6
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#373 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:34 PM | message detail
#374 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:35 PM | message detail
Rayman obviously stuffing


Squall Leonhart
23.08%
3 Votes

Rayman
69.23%
9 Votes

Commander Video
7.69%
1 Votes
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Points: 53/66 Today's Picks: Squall and Amaterasu
#375 | pjbasis | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:45 PM | message detail
#376 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/10/2013 9:00:53 PM | message detail
Rayman flying early. Squall just passed him though.
#377 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:02 PM | message detail
Move over Chester, you have a challenger.
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#378 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:08 PM | message detail
XFD at Video
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#379 | pjbasis | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:15 PM | message detail
#380 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:19 PM | message detail
Oh god don't tell me Chester's going to be beaten
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#381 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:23 PM | message detail
Thank you, B8, you tried
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#382 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:26 PM | message detail
YES GO RAYMAN YOU BEAUTIFUL THINGMAJIG
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#383 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:48 PM | message detail
Video making a run for Chester's spot at the bottom of the xstats
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#384 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:49 PM | message detail
Oh, and it looks like Chester has some serious competition right now.
#385 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:01:59 PM | message detail
Nice to see Rayman looking good, he deserves it
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#386 | xp1337 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:02:23 PM | message detail
Well, Chester Watch might make this interesting!
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#387 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 9:02:52 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart
58.87%
146 Votes

Rayman
36.69%
91 Votes


Commander Video
4.44%
11 Votes

LOL Commander Videowned
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#388 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/10/2013 9:02:57 PM | message detail
Wow. At least Max Payne doesn't look this hilariously bad.
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#389 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:03:20 PM | message detail
Chester is safe, I don't see Video dropping too much plus Squall is stronger than Mewtwo
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#390 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/10/2013 9:03:37 PM | message detail
Wow zero points in the last match didn't move me at all in the expert leaderboard
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#391 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 9:03:45 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
It stills feels wrong to have Guybrush in 2nd place in Expert Challenge, and he's about to win.

LOL Max Payne


It made perfect sense to me! I honestly didn't even realize that Board 8's advice was costing people Expert points, because Guybrush pulling enough votes to get second place in a match with such low vote totals made perfect sense when you remember that 2009 match where SMB3 was pulling over 75% in a fourway.
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#392 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 9:03:59 PM | message detail
GO RAYMAN, PREVENT THE DOUBLING

THAT IS A VICTORY IN MY EYES
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#393 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 9:04:18 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Squall Leonhart
59.48%
182 Votes
Your Pick

Rayman
35.95%
110 Votes

Commander Video
4.58%
14 Votes
Total Votes: 306
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#394 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 9:06:38 PM | message detail | (edited)
And we have a freeze.


Squall Leonhart
61.89%
302 Votes

Rayman
31.76%
155 Votes

Commander Video
6.35%
31 Votes
Total Votes: 488


LOL Video. And here I thought he'd be the obvious target for these rampant stuffers we're apparently getting.
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#395 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/10/2013 9:05:35 PM | message detail
Oh dear Commander Video
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#396 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:05:43 PM | message detail
If Squall = Mewtwo, Commander Video is expected to get 77.83% against Chester.
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#397 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:05:58 PM | message detail
I forgot. How many Chesters is Mewtwo worth?
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#398 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/10/2013 9:06:38 PM | message detail
So what's the Creeper/Wario consensus?
#399 | xp1337 | Posted 8/10/2013 9:06:48 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
If Squall = Mewtwo, Commander Video is expected to get 77.83% against Chester.

Okay, maybe we should back this up.

Tanner Watch? >_>
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#400 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 9:07:18 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Squall Leonhart
61.89%
302 Votes
Your Pick

Rayman
31.76%
155 Votes

Commander Video
6.35%
31 Votes
Total Votes: 488
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