Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1102

#301 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 5:28:39 PM | message detail
If we're talking about fans being burned by Nintendo... *looks at the Wii U*
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#302 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 5:35:34 PM | message detail
Personally, I'm tempted to side with Big Boss because Luigi probably won't be able to SFF Ness to the point of being a non-factor (there's absolutely no doubt the Earthbound faithful won't let him roll over and die).
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#303 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 5:37:01 PM | message detail
Not to play Devil's Advocate, but they certainly let Lucas roll over and die!

"his game hasn't been released in America" I thought you Earthbound fans were supposed to be DEDICATED
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#304 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 5:38:07 PM | message detail
#305 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 5:40:19 PM | message detail
Most of this site has never played a DMC game, Top Option Factor confirmed
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#306 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 5:47:45 PM | message detail
Max Payne is doing very well in New Zealand, India and Southeast Asia. That's a good thing if he wants to pull a comeback, since he is barely beating Guybrush in the US and losing to Guybrush in Canada. Though at this point, a comeback is almost certainly out of reach unless Bacon finds more stuffed votes for Guybrush.
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#307 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/10/2013 5:49:55 PM | message detail
There will be no comeback.

May Payne gets the stain of losing to Guybrush
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#308 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 5:54:14 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Reimu bled 7% from the 2nd hour to the last which was a greater shift than either of the other two made in the other direction. It's just hard to believe they wouldn't stuff for the supposedly strongest of the trio but would for the others. Most of her votes are spread across Europe as per the other two and indeed as with Draven.
Missile might have been pure rallying but Reimu seems like a case of changing the goalposts for what constitutes stuffing mid-contest. Who knows what happened with Draven, Alucard etc but I don't think these standard were being applied then.


Even though Reimu is the main character Marisa seems to get more love from what I've seen

Cirno seems like she has the benefit of the STRONGEST and CB9 thing (I Still don't get it)


Reimu and Marisa are both the main characters. I mean, I guess maybe it's a Mario/Luigi type of relationship since Reimu's been the main character for longer but they really should be about even.

--Smurf-- posted...
Reimu bled 7% from the 2nd hour to the last which was a greater shift than either of the other two made in the other direction. It's just hard to believe they wouldn't stuff for the supposedly strongest of the trio but would for the others. Most of her votes are spread across Europe as per the other two and indeed as with Draven.
Missile might have been pure rallying but Reimu seems like a case of changing the goalposts for what constitutes stuffing mid-contest. Who knows what happened with Draven, Alucard etc but I don't think these standard were being applied then.


Reimu's votes are all over the place. The only country that looks even remotely "odd" is Russia, where she won with 48%--still far from the types of gaudy numbers that China's had for these past couple of matches. That percentage bleed just implies that she had a strong pre-planned rally and that it petered out after it became obvious that it was still hopeless.
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#309 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 5:58:26 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Personally, I'm tempted to side with Big Boss because Luigi probably won't be able to SFF Ness to the point of being a non-factor (there's absolutely no doubt the Earthbound faithful won't let him roll over and die).


Earthbound faithful hates Nintendo confirmed
#310 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/10/2013 5:58:45 PM | message detail
Well I was joking about Luigi getting ten times Ness, but I'm hoping he can triple or quadruple him "for the cause."
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#311 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 5:59:04 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
superange128 posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Reimu bled 7% from the 2nd hour to the last which was a greater shift than either of the other two made in the other direction. It's just hard to believe they wouldn't stuff for the supposedly strongest of the trio but would for the others. Most of her votes are spread across Europe as per the other two and indeed as with Draven.
Missile might have been pure rallying but Reimu seems like a case of changing the goalposts for what constitutes stuffing mid-contest. Who knows what happened with Draven, Alucard etc but I don't think these standard were being applied then.


Even though Reimu is the main character Marisa seems to get more love from what I've seen

Cirno seems like she has the benefit of the STRONGEST and CB9 thing (I Still don't get it)


Reimu and Marisa are both the main characters. I mean, I guess maybe it's a Mario/Luigi type of relationship since Reimu's been the main character for longer but they really should be about even.

--Smurf-- posted...
Reimu bled 7% from the 2nd hour to the last which was a greater shift than either of the other two made in the other direction. It's just hard to believe they wouldn't stuff for the supposedly strongest of the trio but would for the others. Most of her votes are spread across Europe as per the other two and indeed as with Draven.
Missile might have been pure rallying but Reimu seems like a case of changing the goalposts for what constitutes stuffing mid-contest. Who knows what happened with Draven, Alucard etc but I don't think these standard were being applied then.


Reimu's votes are all over the place. The only country that looks even remotely "odd" is Russia, where she won with 48%--still far from the types of gaudy numbers that China's had for these past couple of matches. That percentage bleed just implies that she had a strong pre-planned rally and that it petered out after it became obvious that it was still hopeless.


This is making my head spin - Reimu's rally peters out because it's hopeless, yet Cirno and Marisa's rallies didn't stop despite their situation being as dire? what sorcery is this
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#312 | Xuxon | Posted 8/10/2013 6:01:01 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 8/10/2013 8:47:45 PM | #306
Though at this point, a comeback is almost certainly out of reach unless Bacon finds more stuffed votes for Guybrush.

more stuffed votes? have there been some already removed? i haven't been paying much attention.
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#313 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/10/2013 6:02:33 PM | message detail
94 votes, yeah
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#314 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 6:05:05 PM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
Well I was joking about Luigi getting ten times Ness, but I'm hoping he can triple or quadruple him "for the cause."


*writes script to divert 3/4 of Ness votes to Luigi and hacks it into the server*
#315 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/10/2013 6:07:47 PM | message detail
Are you male or female?
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#316 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 6:17:40 PM | message detail
As expected, Guybrush is losing percentage since Europe is going to sleep. Guybrush has lost 0.17% in the last hour alone.
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#317 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 6:55:52 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
As expected, Guybrush is losing percentage since Europe is going to sleep. Guybrush has lost 0.17% in the last hour alone.


and then it has stayed more or less constant
inb4 SBAllen removes 500 votes
#318 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/10/2013 7:01:29 PM | message detail
**checks poll very late**

**rubs eyes**

*checks poll again**

**asks sister to confirm if I'm crazy or if Guybrush is actually beating Max Payne**

HOLY FREAKING YES GO GUYBRUSH!!!!!!!!!!
#319 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/10/2013 7:06:20 PM | message detail
Okay, I've held out long enough. Max Payne loses to Guybrush. Well at least he made a name for himself, and if he'll likely never be back in a future contest you can bet he's ensured Guybrush will be with us forever. And insofar as becoming the second character in two matches to have votes removed for stuffing accrues notoriety, I suppose Guybrush makes a name for himself too. Ganondorf did a good job of stomping the fodder, picking up after the stuffed votes were removed, much as Vivi did. Pity he's wasted.

Round 1, Match 67

(2) Squall Leonhart
(17) Rayman
(26) Commander Video

Squall should win this with about as high a percentage as Ganondorf is now, unless Rayman has gone up a long way from when he got 13% on Solid Snake. He's likely a good deal stronger due to Origins and Legends hype, but there's only so far he could've gone. Video's likely to be very poor fodder, below the level of even Guybrush and Max Payne.

Bracket: Squall
Expert: Squall > Rayman > Video
Oracle: Squall Leonhart - 66%; Rayman - 22%; Commander Video - 12%
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#320 | Sorozone | Posted 8/10/2013 7:08:48 PM | message detail
Max's only hope is that more votes are removed. Which is unlikely, I think. Man, Max, how the f*** did you fail me so badly. I guess if it's any consolation the majority of expert probably had Max second as well. Especially if they were lurking B8 for advice.
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#321 | General_Zimbad | Posted 8/10/2013 7:23:08 PM | message detail
Wooh go guybrush. For once he doesn't fail me haha.
#322 | Xuxon | Posted 8/10/2013 7:25:33 PM | message detail
From: Then00bAvenger | Posted: 8/10/2013 9:07:47 PM | #315
Are you male or female?

the best
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#323 | xp1337 | Posted 8/10/2013 7:26:20 PM | message detail
More stuffed votes removed?

what is going on here.

All these years and now back-to-back?
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#324 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 7:26:26 PM | message detail
This is one of the funniest results, even moreso because Guybrush got so ultra-destroyed against the competition of DNF, GFNW, and SDAOAW (Some Dude Announced on a Website)... and then Max Payne, who actually has a couple of wins under his belt, loses to him.
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#325 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 7:29:03 PM | message detail | (edited)
xp1337 posted...
More stuffed votes removed?

what is going on here.

All these years and now back-to-back?


back-to-back-to-back

but don't worry I'm sure it's just been these three times these last contests

edit: wait we had a lull with Mario/Duke Nukem/Fawful... unless MARIO cheated

AGAIN
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#326 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 7:30:29 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
xp1337 posted...
More stuffed votes removed?

what is going on here.

All these years and now back-to-back?


back-to-back-to-back

but don't worry I'm sure it's just been these three times these last contests

edit: wait we had a lull with Mario/Duke Nukem/Fawful... unless MARIO cheated

AGAIN


nah Fawful stuffers
Mario actaully broke 70% :P
#327 | Qwaar | Posted 8/10/2013 7:32:22 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Max's only hope is that more votes are removed. Which is unlikely, I think. Man, Max, how the f*** did you fail me so badly. I guess if it's any consolation the majority of expert probably had Max second as well. Especially if they were lurking B8 for advice.


Yeah, changed with 5 minutes to go on expert advice. I really should just trust my own judgement on matches like this.
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#328 | Xuxon | Posted 8/10/2013 7:35:22 PM | message detail
no pick ftw

i even had that on the next match, but i guess Rayman should be safe enough.
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#329 | pronouncemyname | Posted 8/10/2013 7:36:45 PM | message detail
Let's go Rayman. Gotta believe.
#330 | creativename | Posted 8/10/2013 7:37:19 PM | message detail
No sprite round eh?

Snake breathes a sigh of relief. Just imagine how embarrassing it would have been when Laughing Kefka or Angel Kefka got close to 40% on him.
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#331 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 7:40:41 PM | message detail
Holy crap. Guess I was wrong

ALLEN
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#332 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 7:43:58 PM | message detail
I would like Sub-Zero investigated for vote stuffing
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#333 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 7:44:46 PM | message detail
Man Laughing Kefka can beat Sprite Snake I don't know why everyone was so cavalier about that match. Using Snake/Fox and the Fox/Lloyd v Pikachu/Lloyd comparisons it looks like Sprite Snake cost him around 10 points against Pikachu. Then if you use Kefka's proportion to a constant Zack and adjust him up a few points for Laughing Kefka, he's ahead!
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#334 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 7:46:20 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Man Laughing Kefka can beat Sprite Snake I don't know why everyone was so cavalier about that match. Using Snake/Fox and the Fox/Lloyd v Pikachu/Lloyd comparisons it looks like Sprite Snake cost him around 10 points against Pikachu. Then if you use Kefka's proportion to a constant Zack and adjust him up a few points for Laughing Kefka, he's ahead!


To think this is (or at least WAS) the same Kefka I'd nickname "Chokefka"...
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#335 | xp1337 | Posted 8/10/2013 7:48:52 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
but don't worry I'm sure it's just been these three times these last contests

of course

Seriously though, I almost don't want an investigation into Reimu, etc. Because if turns out there was stuffing there (and elsewhere I guess) then it influenced my expert challenge and I'd much rather be wrong because I was... well wrong than because we were working with incorrect information.
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#336 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 7:53:01 PM | message detail
Alright so now I can just pretend that Garrus beat that worthless c***muscle, and was only stopped from advancing by cheating. And all is right with the world. Oh, and San Andreas' loss was the bitter anti-fanboys stuffing for Golden Sun. Everything makes so much sense once you take into account Allen allowing stuffing all these years.
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#337 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 7:54:52 PM | message detail
one day all the Link stuffers will be caught and order restored to these contests
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#338 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 7:55:48 PM | message detail
Match LXVII: (2) Squall Leonhart vs. (17) Rayman vs. (26) Commander Video

Previous Contest

Squall Leonhart – 2010
68.01% against Akuma
64.52% against Terra Branford
51.81% against Auron
40.83% against Solid Snake

Rayman – 2007
9.15% against Solid Snake, Nightmare and Vyse

Commander Video – N/A
N/A

Analysis

Squall is one of the strongest non-noble nine characters and with two fodder characters he is going to rock this poll. While Seifer looked pretty bad in his match I feel that is more due to his weakness than Final Fantasy VIII dropping. Outside of Final Fantasy VII new Final Fantasy has been performing fine, but even if Squall is weaker he will still crush the poll.

Back in 2007 I felt Rayman should have been stronger; while it is true platform characters outside of the main series do not perform well Rayman was not exactly a total unknown. I expect him to be a bit stronger for this contest given he has had a few releases since then, including Rayman Origins. Even with his low strength I still expect him to win over Commander Video.

Commander Video caught me off-guard, he is one of the few characters in this bracket where I have not even heard of the game he is from. From what I gather Video has a bit of a cult following and he has made a couple of cameo appearances in games such as Super Meat Boy. I honestly do not see a reason why he would have any strength, even just enough to win over Rayman.

Squall should be able to break 60% with ease unless Rayman really turns around from his 2007 performance. While I feel Rayman will be stronger than what we saw in 2007 I do not believe he will be much stronger. Commander Video I feel has a legit chance at being one of the weakest characters in the bracket.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Squall Leonhart > Rayman and Commander Video

charmander6000’s Prediction: Squall Leonhart – 67.67%, Rayman – 22.34%, Commander Video – 9.99%
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#339 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 7:57:14 PM | message detail
Also, I still can't believe that someone who got dismantled by Ryo Hazuki, got fried by Bowser, got smashed in a weak-ass fourpack, lost to Isaac by over ten thousand votes, and finally got blown the hell out by Vincent is actually NOT failing it up and getting last.
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#340 | creativename | Posted 8/10/2013 7:59:27 PM | message detail
Hah. Guybrush had votes removed?

No chance in hell that Reimu didn't stuff like crazy, she dropped like a brick after the first couple hours. Very little chance that Draven didn't have at the least hundreds of stuffed votes.

Pretty good chance of 1000+ fraud votes for him, if even a lousy Touhou character can manage 1500 (which it looks like Cirno did, even though only 1000 were removed - Tifa and Chun-Li's %ages tanked the last few hours even after the removal).

-LusterSoldier- posted...
As for why all of Guybrush's stuffed votes came during the first hour:

I'm guessing the vote stuffing from the previous match spilled over to this match.

Interesting theory. Did Marisa and Guybrush have the same poll option ID?
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#341 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 8:00:54 PM | message detail
No, looks like Marisa would have been 3 and Guybrush is 2
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#342 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/10/2013 8:01:12 PM | message detail
Wow, Max Payne is strikingly weak. Would anybody here take Dragonborn over him?
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#343 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 8:02:36 PM | message detail
Also god damnit I was hoping Draven would do something magical to break the LAW, but if Draven's "magic" is just stuffing then I guess we're back where we started: it's down to Solid Snake.

Unless Draven stuffs again and Allen ignores it again. In which case eh that'd be kind of lame. I can get on board with a rally breaking the LAW but not stuffing.
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#344 | Xuxon | Posted 8/10/2013 8:04:15 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2013 10:59:27 PM | #340
Pretty good chance of 1000+ fraud votes for him, if even a lousy Touhou character can manage 1500 (which it looks like Cirno did, even though only 1000 were removed - Tifa and Chun-Li's %ages tanked the last few hours even after the removal).

Marisa had 2k removed
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#345 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 8:04:41 PM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Wow, Max Payne is strikingly weak. Would anybody here take Dragonborn over him?


I'd bite - Max Payne doesn't look like he can even beat Tom Nook anymore if he's losing to Guybrush...
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#346 | swordz9 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:05:24 PM | message detail
Draven would need a miracle to beat Link. That loser couldn't even come close to beating Jak and Chie without rallying, possible stuffing and/or whatever else.
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#347 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/10/2013 8:05:56 PM | message detail
More like would anyone take Max Payne over Dragonborn?
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#348 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 8:06:50 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Also god damnit I was hoping Draven would do something magical to break the LAW, but if Draven's "magic" is just stuffing then I guess we're back where we started: it's down to Solid Snake.

Unless Draven stuffs again and Allen ignores it again. In which case eh that'd be kind of lame. I can get on board with a rally breaking the LAW but not stuffing.


why would you even want Draven to be the one to do it
Snake is such a better character than that scrub
#349 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 8:07:08 PM | message detail
well yeah, thus why I said "magical"
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#350 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 8:07:44 PM | message detail
I'd take Pyramid Head over Max/Guybrush at this point. Unless Dragonborn is completely, utterly worthless (could still happen!), it's a pretty dumb question.
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